Last price as of Fri, Jul 31, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Hormuz tanker ship-to-ship transfers rebound after slowdown keeping a lid on crude prices. Refining margins are down this morning also. Both flat price crude (recovery in Hormuz flows) AND refining margins (retail price weakness) both down could signal the start of the next leg down for oil prices. Cocoa up $171 (+3.3%) on signs of demand recovery and weather risks in West Africa. Iron ore down $3.0 (-3.1%) on flat ore and China steel sector weakness. This results from the ongoing slowdown in China’s construction sector. Cotton up $1.58 (+2.0%) on broader commodities risk-on move. Tin (SHFE $/mt) up $962 (+1.8%) on LME tin gains amid base metals strength. Palladium down $20 (-1.5%) on dollar strength ahead of Fed decision. Platinum down $25 (-1.5%) on softer industrial demand.
Kicker: Short iron ore calendar spread, long prompt vs. deferred on rising Guinea supply, Goldman Sachs.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
BP launched a formal sale process for its UK North Sea oil and gas business, which accounts for about 5% of its output and employs 1,100 people. The move under new CEO Meg O'Neill aims to refocus on higher-return projects elsewhere after more than six decades in the basin. Read →
BP Plc began marketing its North Sea business for potential sale as part of a portfolio review. CEO Meg O'Neill said the unit will be better positioned under another company, with the assets valued around £2 billion. Read →
Shadia Nasralla · Reuters · Fri, Jul 31, 2:20 AM ET
BP is selling its British North Sea fields under new CEO Meg O'Neill to improve profitability and reduce debt. The assets include five major production hubs and represent a small but declining share of BP's global output amid falling basin production. Read →
Oil prices fell at the end of a volatile week but remained on track for a roughly 20% monthly gain amid the US-Iran war and supply disruptions. Brent traded below $88 a barrel after swings of about $11 this week. Read →
Copper is headed for a monthly gain driven by tightening supply, including large flows to the US ahead of potential Trump tariffs. Demand optimism from data centers and power infrastructure pushed prices 3% higher in July. Read →
What's moving · Oil prices fell more than $1 as increased crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz eased supply worries despite ongoing US-Iran tensions.
Brent futures fell $1.03 or 1.2% to $88 a barrel and WTI slipped $1.50 or 1.8% to $82.09. Greater tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz offset lack of diplomatic progress. Both benchmarks remain up about 20% for the month. Read →
CPC terminal at Novorossiysk halted loadings for the third time this month after drones hit two tankers overnight. The pipeline carries 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports. Disruptions risk forcing output cuts for the OPEC+ member and affect Chevron and Exxon investments. Read →
Valero reported its strongest quarterly earnings since 2022 on elevated refining margins. Record product cracks and strong demand for US fuels drove the beat. The result highlights how Middle East disruptions boosted Gulf Coast refiner profitability. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · EIA storage build misses estimates at 28 Bcf vs 35 Bcf expected, lifting prompt Henry Hub futures.
EIA reported a 28 Bcf injection for the week ended July 24, below the 35 Bcf consensus. Natural gas futures settled higher Thursday on the surprise. Inventories reached 3,084 Bcf, 6.4% above the five-year average, keeping the winter outlook steady amid robust production. Read →
The EIA reported a 28 Bcf net injection for the week ended July 24, a bullish surprise versus estimates. Salt dome storage saw a steep 14 Bcf draw. The print supported prompt month prices modestly despite comfortable overall inventories. Read →
US LNG export plants loaded 35 cargoes in the week ending July 29, up one from the prior week per EIA data. This maintains solid export demand supporting domestic gas balances. Flows remain a key offset to rising production and storage levels. Read →
Futures fell about 2% amid higher Lower 48 output near record levels and LNG feedgas flows averaging 17.4 bcfd. Ample storage after a near-normal build added pressure. Weather forecasts still called for above-normal heat supporting power burn into late July. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF at €58/MWh as Engie cites Middle East volatility boosting gas trading amid warmer weather curbing demand.
America Hernandez · Reuters · Fri, Jul 31, 5:47 AM ET
Engie reported 3.3% higher first-half EBIT excluding nuclear at €5.3 billion, beating forecasts, with its energy management and trading unit up slightly as volatility from the Iran conflict lifted results. European benchmark gas prices averaged €45.63/MWh in Q2, 28% higher than a year earlier due to restricted Middle East cargoes, though trading gains were modest versus 2022. Warmer weather cut gas generation income 30%, but the firm raised full-year guidance. Read →
Power
What's moving · SPP extends West BAA Conservative Operations Advisory through Aug 6 amid hot weather and forecast uncertainty.
Southwest Power Pool extended its Conservative Operations Advisory for the West Balancing Authority Area through 12 a.m. CT on Aug 6. The advisory addresses potential high loads from hot weather, resource outages, and lower wind/solar output. It allows greater unit commitment lead times to maintain reliability without public conservation calls. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China's coal-fired power share fell below 50% for the first time in H1 2026 as renewables hit 41.2%.
China's coal-fired power generation totaled 2.5 trillion kWh in January-June, or 49.7% of total output, the first time below 50%. Renewables reached 41.2% with wind and solar capacity at 1.95 billion kW. This marks a milestone in China's green transition even as absolute coal use rises with demand growth. Read →
An explosion at a coal mine complex near Quetta in Balochistan province killed at least 34 miners on Thursday, likely from methane buildup. Dozens were initially missing as rescue operations continued. The incident highlights ongoing safety risks in Pakistan's coal mining sector. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA export sales report and China soybean purchase lift grains amid cooler Corn Belt weather capping rallies.
Corn and soybeans finished modestly lower while wheat held small gains. Cooler and wetter Corn Belt forecast pressured prices after early advances from Black Sea news. Solid weekly export sales and a China bean sale provided demand support. Read →
Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China in the 2026/2027 marketing year. This marks renewed Chinese buying interest in U.S. soybeans. The sale adds to positive export demand signals for the new crop. Read →
Ukraine attacked the Port of Taman on the Kerch Strait overnight. The strike targets a key Russian grain export gateway. Escalating Black Sea attacks between Russia and Ukraine threaten grain export capacity and support wheat prices. Read →
Cotton traded a little lower yesterday on a stronger U.S. dollar. Forecasts show scattered showers in Delta and Southeast cotton areas. Temperatures remain warm to hot across the belt. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper surges on Chile storm disruptions at mines and China stimulus signals.
Copper-tracking ETF CPER rose 2.58% to $39.34. Southern Copper shares jumped 5.43% to $185 and Freeport-McMoRan gained 5.75% amid expectations of fresh Chinese infrastructure spending. The moves reflect heightened demand hopes for the top refined copper consumer. Read →
Heavy snow, rain and winds in Chile halted operations at Lundin Mining's Caserones mine since July 18, with restart expected in 2-3 weeks. Antofagasta halted Los Pelambres and other producers faced evacuations. The disruptions add to existing supply tightness from tariffs, scrap limits and low LME/SHFE inventories, supporting prices near $13,750 per tonne. Read →
East China aluminum ingot prices averaged 23,643 RMB/ton as of July 30, up 6.17% from July 1. Rigid Chinese capacity caps near 45 million tonnes, low inventories and downstream restocking in EVs, solar and grids drove the rebound despite seasonal weakness. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore prices fell to multi-week lows with SGX IODEX at $95.70/t and DCE futures near CNY 714/t amid weak China demand.
Iron ore futures on DCE dropped toward CNY 720 per ton, their lowest since June 2025, as average losses at Tangshan steel mills widened beyond CNY 100 per ton. Weakening demand outlook for the steelmaking input pressured prices. The move signals sustained pressure on the iron ore complex from Chinese mill profitability. Read →
The 62% Fe iron ore benchmark fell to 98.25 USD/t on July 30. Prices are down 0.11% over the past month and 0.88% year-over-year. This reflects ongoing softness in the seaborne market tied to Chinese consumption. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Central bank gold buying rebounded to 289t in Q2 2026 per World Gold Council report.
Central bank net gold purchases hit 289t in Q2, up sharply from a revised 57t in Q1 and a Q2 record. Poland led with 51t added and China with 33t, while sales moderated with Russia the main seller at 22t. The rebound underscores sustained official-sector demand amid softer prices and geopolitical factors. Read →
Spot gold fell 0.7% to around $4,075/oz on Friday but is set for a 1.7% monthly gain, its first in five months. Bargain buying near $4,000 and Middle East developments supporting rate-cut hopes aided the complex. Silver, platinum and palladium also posted monthly advances despite daily declines. Read →
Comex gold futures rose 1.58% to settle at $4,100.10 on July 30 after the Federal Reserve held rates steady. The move followed the central bank's decision and came amid shifting rate expectations. Spot gold traded near $4,075/oz in subsequent sessions. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Trump signs order authorizing Commerce Dept to restrict US exports of critical minerals scrap and e-waste.
Jacob Bogage · Reuters · Thu, Jul 30, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
President Trump signed a presidential determination under the Defense Production Act authorizing the Commerce Department to issue rules blocking overseas exports of e-waste, old batteries, black mass, and scrap containing rare earths and other critical minerals. The move aims to retain materials domestically for recycling to reduce reliance on China and support national defense needs. US exports nearly 33,000 metric tons of e-waste monthly, much of it with recoverable lithium, tungsten, and rare earths. Read →
Trump signed a July 30 presidential determination delegating authority to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to impose export restrictions on recoverable critical minerals and materials including rare-earth permanent magnets, black mass, and manufacturing scrap. The action targets overreliance on foreign sources, especially China, for defense and industrial supply chains. It follows a GAO report on recycling technologies and aligns with a January 1, 2027 deadline for defense contractors to phase out Chinese minerals. Read →
The determination finds recoverable critical minerals and materials scarce and essential to national defense, authorizing Commerce to issue regulations preventing export of black mass, end-of-life goods, rare-earth magnets, swarf, and scrap. Copper scrap is excluded as already covered elsewhere. It emphasizes risks from import reliance and directs action to secure domestic supply without major civilian market disruption. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · BDI rebounds 1.6% to 2,673 on July 30 as Capesize and Panamax indices rise amid recovering dry bulk demand.
At least seven ship-to-ship oil transfers occurred off Sohar on Thursday as shuttling activity resumes. The practice helps move Gulf crude despite limited direct Hormuz transits. It supports continued exports amid Middle East hostilities while full waterway traffic stays suppressed. Read →
Environment
What's moving · RIN prices surge as EPA weighs extending 2025 RFS compliance deadline amid high costs and import slowdowns.
Valero executives told investors that the shift from the $1/gallon blender tax credit to the domestic-focused 45Z credit and lack of foreign producer RIN registrations have sharply cut biodiesel imports this year. Imports through June reached only 25% of 2024 levels, tightening RIN supply under record EPA biofuel mandates. This supports elevated RIN prices as refiners struggle to meet blending obligations. Read →
The EPA is reviewing whether to extend the September 1 deadline for 2025 Renewable Fuel Standard compliance, a move that would give refiners more time amid surging RIN prices. High compliance costs stem from ambitious 2026 mandates and tighter credit supply after slower imports. An extension could also allow more time to process small refinery exemption petitions before the deadline. Read →
The European Commission proposed revisions to the EU ETS on July 17 to set Phase 5 rules for 2031-2040 and align with the bloc's 90% net GHG reduction target by 2040. Changes include adjustments to free allocation benchmarks, conditionality tied to decarbonization investments, and expanded coverage for municipal waste incineration. The proposal aims to balance industrial competitiveness with climate goals amid ongoing political debate. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · RWA perps volume hits 99.2% of Bitcoin perps on Hyperliquid and Binance, led by tokenized equities and commodities.
Talos data shows seven-day RWA perpetual futures volume on Hyperliquid and Binance reached $61.7 billion, or 99.2% of Bitcoin perpetuals volume on the platforms. Equity-linked contracts accounted for 57.8% and commodities for 28.2% of the RWA total. The surge reflects sustained trader demand for 24/7 leveraged exposure to tokenized stocks and commodities beyond crypto volatility. Read →
RWA-focused markets now lead trading activity on Hyperliquid. The platform recorded a new all-time high of $3.6 billion in RWA open interest alongside $11 billion total open interest. Crude oil and silver contracts via HIP-3 have driven over $120 billion in cumulative year-to-date volume. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Shell Q2 earnings surge to $9.8B on oil-gas price spike and trading gains, with ADNOC buying tankers amid Hormuz-Red Sea crunch.
Shell agreed to sell its BG Cyprus unit, which holds a 35% stake in the Aphrodite gas field offshore Cyprus, to Hungary's MOL Group for up to $720 million including milestones. The exit supports Shell's focus on strengthening its integrated LNG value chain through disciplined capital allocation. The deal highlights portfolio optimization amid ongoing regional energy dynamics. Read →
Nidhi Verma, Jonathan Saul and Ahmad Ghaddar · Reuters · Fri, Jul 31, 6:14 AM ET
ADNOC Logistics & Services acquired five VLCCs from Frontline for about $590 million to expand its fleet amid Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The UAE producer also bought three VLGCs and ordered more vessels while chartering additional tankers to secure crude movements. The moves aim to control more of the supply chain as geopolitical tensions tighten tanker availability. Read →
Shell operated its refineries at 102% of capacity in Q2 to maximize jet fuel and diesel output amid elevated prices from Middle East conflict. Trading desks benefited from volatility including impacts around the Strait of Hormuz. The strategy contributed to the surge in overall profits reported alongside the earnings release. Read →
ExxonMobil, Chevron and other majors are competing for prime Venezuelan oil fields but talks have hit an impasse seven months after US-backed change in leadership. No major investment deals have materialized despite administration hopes for quick production restarts. The stalled progress limits near-term supply additions from the key OPEC member. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US BIS eases export controls on UAE for oil/gas and AI items; EU 21st Russia sanctions package and US Senate Russia sanctions bill advance.
The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security reclassified the UAE to EAR Country Group A:5 and removed it from D:3 and D:4. This grants license-free exports under License Exception STA for dual-use items useful in oil and gas production, desalination, and civil nuclear power, plus certain military and satellite items. The change supports UAE infrastructure needs and defense partnership while maintaining controls on advanced computing items. Read →
The EU Council adopted its 21st sanctions package against Russia, designating over 100 banks and crypto operators, more than 40 shadow fleet vessels, and several oil refineries. It pauses automatic adjustment of the oil price cap and bans transactions with 33 financial institutions and 14 crypto platforms. The measures expand pressure on Russia’s energy sector and evasion networks. Read →
A revised bipartisan Russia sanctions bill secured Senate supermajority support and advanced toward a procedural vote. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act would authorize tariffs on the largest importers of Russian oil and natural gas plus sanctions on entities aiding evasion. It targets Russia’s defense and energy sectors to curb war funding. Read →
BIS announced that as of November 20, 2026, certain silencers, mufflers, and sound suppressors move from the US Munitions List to the Commerce Control List under the EAR. The rule aligns controls with those for firearms and provides license exceptions available for firearms. It reduces compliance burdens on the US firearms industry while preserving national security oversight. Read →
The EU implemented its 21st sanctions package with 218 new listings including 94 banks, expanded shadow fleet vessel designations, and measures on LNG and oil refineries. It introduces frameworks for visa restrictions on Russian combatants and tightens anti-circumvention rules. The package represents the largest number of designations in four years. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders on X highlight BP's decision to market its North Sea assets for sale as part of portfolio review, potentially fetching £2B. Discussions note the basin's declining attractiveness due to windfall taxes and drilling bans under the UK Labour government. This signals broader challenges for European energy majors and potential supply shifts in aging offshore fields. Read →
Commodity watchers note Oman futures open interest rising to the highest since Oct 2024 at 23,566 lots. Traders link it to increased physical buying by Chinese and Indian refiners seeking supplies avoiding Hormuz or Red Sea routes. Signals bullish sentiment for non-traditional Middle East crude amid geopolitical tensions. Read →
Retail and pro traders post XAUUSD sell limits at 4067-4070 with stops above 4074-4075 targeting 4062-4053. Discussions focus on price stalling near fresh supply after recent moves, emphasizing precision scalps and breakeven management. Highlights ongoing volatility and technical focus in precious metals trading. Read →
Energy analysts flag global crude exports falling to lowest since COVID start. Traders emphasize depleted commercial inventory buffers worldwide and US inability to ramp exports further. Sparks debate on tightening physical market and potential price support despite recent volatility from Middle East news. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Paul Sankey of Sankey Research highlights extreme tightness in the crude refining system amid ongoing Middle East tensions. He argues the market is focused on the wrong price signals and predicts the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve could be depleted around September due to sustained draws. Watch/Listen →
Veriten Partner Arjun Murti discusses key takeaways from the Strait of Hormuz closure and the potential for a super spike if conflict persists. He outlines major themes for H2 2026 commodity and energy markets. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
This newsletter is brought to you by BoxWood · The AI-powered programmatic hedge booking system for commodity producers, consumers, refiners, hedge funds, and trading houses. See a live demo →
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.