Last price as of Wed, Jul 29, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude up $2.55 (+3.3%) on renewed Middle East hostilities. US base in Jordan intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile attack at about 5:45 ET yesterday evening, Tuesday, July 28, 2026. It broke a recent pause in direct US-Iran hostilities. This surprise attack threatened a ceasefire since the US halted its strikes on Iran around late Friday (July 25), after about 13 consecutive nights of attacks. Dutch TTF up $1.17 (+2.0%). Sugar up $0.19 (+1.3%). Platinum down $21 (-1.3%). Rebar down $4 (-1.1%). Coffee down $3.3 (-1.0%).
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long copper via futures on supply constraints and demand from energy transition.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent futures rose $2.70 or 3.2% to $86.79 a barrel and WTI gained $2.65 or 3.3% to $81.91 after US-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq and the interception of Iranian missiles targeting US forces, alongside a 3.3 million barrel drop in US crude inventories. Read →
Wheat futures advanced for a second session as escalating Russia-Ukraine attacks threaten exports from two top suppliers; SovEcon cut its Russian wheat export forecast by about 4% due to navigation closures in the Sea of Azov. Read →
Hong Kong’s gold imports hit the highest level since late-2014 in June, exceeding 130 tons, driven by preparations for the city’s new clearing system and strong mainland China demand; net imports reached the highest since December 2023. Read →
Ukraine has shifted its long-range drone campaign against Russia’s energy sector from broad refinery attacks to more targeted strikes on critical components to keep facilities offline longer amid the ongoing conflict. Read →
Houthi naval actions have forced Saudi Arabia to reroute crude exports, tightening global tanker supply and pushing freight rates higher as shipping disruptions mount in key chokepoints. Read →
Core OPEC+ members plan to raise quotas by 188,000 bpd in September but will likely hold production steady through year-end pending a capacity review for 2027 quotas. The pause leaves 2 million bpd of cuts in place amid reduced effective spare capacity from the Iran conflict. Read →
US crude inventories fell 3.3 million barrels in the week to July 24 while gasoline stocks rose 918,000 barrels and distillates climbed 355,000 barrels, per API sources. Official EIA data is due Wednesday and supports tighter near-term crude supply. Read →
Houthis launched ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker that allegedly breached their new Red Sea blockade of Saudi Arabia. The attack follows prior Houthi strikes on Saudi oil facilities and widens the conflict's impact on tanker routes. Read →
Brent surged nearly 4% to above $87, recovering from a 16% three-day drop, after fresh US-Iran clashes including intercepted Iranian attacks and militia strikes on Saudi facilities. The moves highlight ongoing supply disruption risks across multiple fronts including Hormuz and the Red Sea. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natural gas futures hit 3-month low near $2.68/MMBtu on record production and soft LNG demand.
US LNG exports totaled 502.8 Bcf or 16.2 Bcf/d in May, down 6.5% from April. Exports reached 33 countries with Europe taking 46% share. Total natural gas net exports reached 584.1 Bcf. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises 1.9% to €58.82/MWh at open as JKM holds near $21.33/MMBtu amid limited fresh drivers.
Redazione ANSA · ANSA · Wed, Jul 29, 2026, 8:49 AM ET
TTF futures opened 1.9% higher at €58.82 per MWh on the Amsterdam market. The move reflects intraday trading sentiment with no specific fundamental driver cited in the report. Read →
Singapore LNG bunker prices rose $53/mt to $1,394/mt over the past week, widening the premium over Rotterdam to $243/mt. The increase tracked front-month JKM gains of $1.02/MMBtu to $22.00/MMBtu amid geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Read →
China has restarted LNG re-exports as summer supply proves sufficient and JKM strengthens. July JKM averaged $18.783/MMBtu per Platts data, supporting the shift in trade flows. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM advances backstop power procurement plan to cover data center-driven shortages as capacity auctions hit caps.
PJM Interconnection plans to file proposals with federal regulators for a one-time reliability backstop procurement from Sept 30 to Oct 21 and an operational tool to manage rapid load growth from data centers. The largest US grid operator serving 13 states expects 70 GW of new large-load demand by 2038. Recent capacity auctions cleared near the $325/MW-day cap and fell short of reliability needs for the second straight time. Read →
PJM will allow temporary curtailment of data centers 50 MW or larger starting June 2027 to avert blackouts when supply is tight. Affected customers receive compensation and notice; the policy follows capacity shortfalls and record-high auction prices. Grid operators face surging AI-driven demand that has nearly doubled wholesale prices in the past year. Read →
CenterPoint Energy raised its 2026-2035 capital plan to $66.7 billion after beating Q2 profit estimates, citing rising electricity demand from data centers in its Houston territory. The utility sees strong growth in large-load connections amid broader power-market tightness. Higher demand has also pushed up retail prices and affordability concerns. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal holds near $130/t as Asia imports rebound except India amid weak domestic supply and China output drop.
Clyde Russell · Reuters · Mon, Jul 28, 2026, 5:30 AM ET
Asia seaborne thermal coal imports are projected at 73.16 million tonnes in July, up from June, led by China at 28.14 million tonnes, Japan at 10.46 million and South Korea at 8.54 million as peak summer demand rises and domestic output in China falls 9.7% year-on-year after safety checks. India imports are seen dropping to 10.88 million tonnes, the lowest since August last year, despite record power demand, due to ample domestic stocks and higher prices. The Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg index hit a four-week high of $132.76/t, supporting seaborne prices while Indian utilities draw on local supplies. Read →
Coal India reported a 0.6% rise in consolidated net profit to 88.52 billion rupees ($923 million) for the first quarter, missing analyst expectations of 99.43 billion rupees. Weaker production volumes and higher costs drove the shortfall for the world's largest coal miner, which accounts for about three-quarters of India's output. The result highlights pressure on domestic supply amid strong power-sector demand. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA crop progress shows US corn and soybean conditions slipping to 63% good-to-excellent amid heat, with strong export sales to unknown destinations reported.
Private exporters reported sales of 197,272 metric tons of corn for 2026/2027 delivery to unknown destinations. The report also noted prior soybean sales activity to China and unknown buyers. These export sales announcements highlight ongoing US grain demand outside traditional channels. Read →
Indiana corn condition rated 63% good-to-excellent with 74% silking; soybeans at 63% good-to-excellent with 41% setting pods. Topsoil moisture was mostly adequate. The state data aligns with national trends of advancing development amid variable conditions. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · China's H1 refined copper net imports fell 13% YoY to 1.374 million tons, weakest since 2017, as exports rose and prices compete with US tariffs.
China's net imports of refined copper fell 13% year-on-year to 1.374 million metric tons in the first half of 2026 per World Bureau of Metal Statistics data. Imports dropped 10% while exports rose 5% to 324,000 tons, marking the weakest first-half reading since 2017. High prices and competition with US tariff-driven demand reduced China's import appetite, with Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks at a 2.5-year low of 69,610 tons and the Yangshan premium spiking. Read →
Battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 21,457.33 USD/tonne on July 28, down 125.83 or 0.58%. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell 126.49 or 0.60%. The moves reflect ongoing weakness in battery materials pricing amid shifting supply flows from Australia to China and Indonesia. Read →
LME copper spot price closed at 13,643.50 USD/tonne on July 28, down from 13,770.61 the prior session. The level aligns with broader base metals pricing data showing modest daily moves across copper, aluminum and zinc contracts. Tight physical availability in China continues to influence global benchmarks. Read →
LME zinc cash settled at 3,631.50 USD/tonne, up from 3,576. Nickel cash closed at 16,860.00, down from 17,080. Aluminum cash stood at 3,159.50. The mixed session follows recent LME inventory draws and China trade flow shifts reported earlier in the week. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · SGX iron ore futures settle at $97.70/t as DCE and China steel prices hold steady amid soft demand.
China's crude steel production fell 3% year-on-year to 499.95 million tons in the first half of 2026. Rebar inventories rose to 4.94 million tons in the week to July 17. SGX iron ore contracts settled at $99.00/t on Monday, supported by ample supply from Australia and Brazil despite weaker steel demand. Read →
SGX iron ore (IODEX) futures settled at 97.70 USD per tonne, down 0.13% from the previous close of 97.83. The market shows limited movement as China remains the key importer for seaborne iron ore from Australia and Brazil. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold holds near $4,025/oz ahead of Fed rate decision as war fears ease.
A Reuters poll of 29 analysts cut the median 2026 gold price forecast to $4,509/oz from $4,916/oz three months earlier, the first trim since late 2023. Central banks remain the key demand driver even if purchases slow from record levels. Structural supports like geopolitics and fiscal concerns stay intact despite the pullback from January's $5,595 record. Read →
Spot gold edged steady near $4,024.54/oz with U.S. futures down 0.4% as markets await the Fed decision and Chairman Kevin Warsh comments at 1800-1830 GMT. A 68% chance of unchanged rates and 32% of a 25bp hike is priced in. Silver rose 0.5% while platinum and palladium fell. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US Army deal with REalloys for dysprosium-terbium processing on military base drives rare earth friend-shoring push.
The U.S. Army chose REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) for exclusive negotiations on an Enhanced Use Lease at Utah’s Tooele Army Depot to build and operate heavy rare earth (dysprosium and terbium) processing facilities, the first such commercial project on a U.S. military base. The company simultaneously closed $100 million in financing for a roughly $130 million war chest, joined the Russell 3000, secured feedstock MOUs covering billions of tonnes from Wyoming, Appalachia and Greenland, and advanced qualification of defense-grade materials ahead of the January 1, 2027 Pentagon ban on Chinese-origin rare earths in weapons systems. The moves embed non-Chinese supply directly into defense logistics and accelerate permanent-magnet supply-chain diversification. Read →
Posco International signed an MOU with Australia’s Meteoric Resources for long-term purchase of rare earth intermediate materials from the Caldeira project in Minas Gerais, Brazil, plus equity investment talks and project agreements. Posco will refine the material into oxides at its facilities and supply permanent magnet makers in Korea and abroad, linking Brazilian feedstock to its existing magnet contracts with North American and European automakers. The deal diversifies Posco’s critical minerals supply away from concentrated sources and bolsters integrated supply for EV motors and defense applications. Read →
Brazil-focused IMC Rare Earths Ltd priced its IPO of 4 million ordinary shares at $5.00 each for $20 million gross proceeds, with shares approved to begin trading July 29, 2026 on NYSE American under ticker IMC. The company targets development of its Itarantim adsorption-clay project in Bahia and Minas Gerais for magnet rare earths including neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium aimed at Western EV, wind and defense markets. The listing provides fresh capital to advance an alternative non-Chinese supply source for permanent-magnet feedstocks. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Houthi blockade and Red Sea missile incident on Saudi tanker reroute crude, tighten VLCC/Suezmax supply and lift tanker rates amid Bab el-Mandeb recovery.
Vessel transits through Bab el-Mandeb rose to 28 on Monday per Kpler data, including four oil tankers entering the Red Sea (one VLCC, two Suezmax, one Aframax). Hormuz traffic stayed low at six vessels. The increase signals easing chokepoint pressure even as regional tensions persist. Read →
NZT and KSK in Novorossiysk plus ZTKT in Taman restricted truck deliveries due to rising Black Sea risks from drone attacks. The three terminals handle over 20 million tons of grain yearly; Russia diverts flows to Baltic ports as alternatives amid Sea of Azov restrictions. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs drift lower in holiday-thinned trading as energy prices fall and reform digestion continues.
EU carbon allowances drifted sideways early Tuesday before falling as steady selling resumed in thin holiday liquidity. Energy prices declined further following reduced Middle East tensions. The move reflects ongoing market digestion of the EU ETS reform package. Read →
US lawmakers introduced legislation requiring the Department of Energy to procure up to 10 million tonnes of CO2 removals annually starting 2036. The measure would create one of the world's largest long-term government-backed markets for engineered carbon dioxide removal. It targets engineered CDR supply growth in voluntary and compliance markets. Read →
Brazil proposed a phased sectoral rollout of monitoring, reporting and verification obligations under its emissions trading system starting 2027. Initial focus covers aluminium, oil production and refining, and cement sectors. The step builds foundational compliance infrastructure for the national SBCE carbon market. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Ondo Finance launches Ondo Perps on private high-speed network using tokenized assets as collateral for equity and commodity perpetuals.
Ondo Finance abandoned its Ondo Chain L1 blockchain plans and introduced Ondo Network, a trading platform separating private fast execution from public blockchain settlement. Ondo Perps is the first app, enabling perpetual futures trading with tokenized assets like stocks or commodities as collateral. This infrastructure push targets institutional demand for 24/7 on-chain commodity and equity perps amid rising tokenization. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · China refiners ramp up Russian crude buys amid Mideast supply risks, while gold and copper miners beat Q2 estimates on higher prices.
Chinese independent refiners purchased most September-loading ESPO Blend Russian crude at $1-3 per barrel discount to Brent. Teapots in Shandong are also in talks for Iranian crude cargoes amid disruptions from the Iran conflict and Houthi threats. The moves underscore China's shift to secure alternative supplies as Middle East exports face blockades. Read →
Teck Resources beat Q2 profit estimates, driven by a 25% rise in copper production and higher prices, posting adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion. Profit before taxes reached $1.5 billion versus $125 million a year earlier. Shares rose 4% as the miner highlighted record margins ahead of its merger. Read →
S&P Global agreed to acquire datacenterHawk, a provider of proprietary data center supply/demand and infrastructure intelligence, to bolster its energy and market intelligence units. The deal expands coverage of power markets, grid infrastructure and AI-related demand. It closed alongside a majority stake in African ratings firm Agusto & Co. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump's new 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods escalate trade tensions, pressuring energy and resource flows.
President Trump issued proclamations imposing 50% duties on nearly $20 billion of Canadian goods including wine, alcoholic beverages, hockey sticks and cement, effective August 19. The measures target alleged discriminatory Canadian trade practices against US cars, alcohol and dairy, regardless of USMCA status. Canada is a top supplier of US crude oil and natural gas imports, so escalation risks supply-chain costs and retaliatory energy export taxes. Read →
On July 20 President Trump signed Section 338 proclamations levying 50% tariffs on specified Canadian imports in response to Ottawa's treatment of US exports. Energy, potash and critical minerals are largely exempted from the new duties. The action heightens risks for cross-border steel, aluminum and related commodity trade amid broader tariff walls. Read →
India's commerce ministry said it will continue bilateral trade talks after the US imposed 10% tariffs on Indian imports under forced-labor measures targeting 60 partners. The duty is lower than earlier proposals and excludes pharmaceuticals, smartphones, steel, aluminum and auto parts. The step maintains pressure on commodity supply chains while India seeks to finalize a broader agreement. Read →
Bloomberg's regulatory brief highlights the CFTC's ongoing request for input on extending futures trading to 24/7 schedules and permitting perpetual contracts tied to storable physical commodities such as crude oil. The initiative addresses evolving market structures in energy derivatives. It could reshape liquidity and risk management for commodity participants if adopted. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders discuss Iran's IRGC launching missiles at US targets and intercepting oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, cutting significant global supply flows. Brent jumped 3.5% to around $87 as markets price in heightened Middle East supply risks and potential escalation. The moves follow earlier de-escalation hopes and directly impact energy trading desks watching chokepoints. Read →
Retail and pro traders note Brent/WTI volatility with surges tied to Iran actions and diplomatic backchannels like China securing tanker passage. Discussions link the moves to Fed rate probabilities rising and yen carry trade dynamics. Oil is seen as the key inflation trigger influencing broader commodity and equity positioning. Read →
Nuclear energy investors highlight uranium stocks falling alongside gold, silver, copper and oil names due to portfolio managers dumping mining baskets. U3O8 spot prices continue rising, creating a disconnect that analysts call a buy-the-dip opportunity. Cameco Q2 results upcoming add to the focus on fundamentals. Read →
Subreddit users in daily oil price threads discuss Iran asserting control over Hormuz flows, potential US-Iran deals and Macquarie's glut warnings ahead of midterms. High engagement on supply disruptions, tanker drama and whether prices will sustain gains or see relief rallies. Focus remains on real-time chokepoint developments. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, discussed how Houthi threats in the Red Sea and drone attacks in Russia are compounding oil supply risks and inflationary pressures. He outlined best- and worst-case scenarios for oil prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, emphasizing geopolitical shocks to flows. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.