Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Friday, July 24, 2026 · 43 stories
▶ The 2-minute market brief · 1.25x
Markets at a glance
Last price as of Fri, Jul 24, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude down $3.28 (-3.8%) to $89 (WTI) and $97 (Brent) following a 7:43pm ET (Wed Jul 24, 2026) NYT story mentioning mediation, and in this case via Iraq. Ongoing backchannel negotiations are taking place on a ceasefire between the US and Iran despite escalation talk.
Tin (SHFE $/mt) down $788 (-1.4%).
Copper (SHFE $/mt) down $167 (-1.2%).
Silver up $0.58 (+1.0%) on China banks ending retail leveraged paper silver trading.
Wheat up $6 (+0.9%) on Black Sea export limitations.
Kicker: JPMorgan recommends long gold versus short silver spread on central bank buying and investor demand strength.
Tin (SHFE $/mt) down $788 (-1.4%).
Copper (SHFE $/mt) down $167 (-1.2%).
Silver up $0.58 (+1.0%) on China banks ending retail leveraged paper silver trading.
Wheat up $6 (+0.9%) on Black Sea export limitations.
Kicker: JPMorgan recommends long gold versus short silver spread on central bank buying and investor demand strength.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Brent crude tops $100 on Houthi tanker strikes
Giulia Petroni, Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Brent crude soared 7.2% to $100.82 a barrel on Thursday, its highest since end-May, after Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. WTI rose 5.8% to $91.83, with both benchmarks up sharply this week amid widening Middle East supply risks. Read →
Trump threatens Iran over Houthi tanker strikes
Gareth Vipers, Lara Seligman · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
President Trump said the U.S. will hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks after the group struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The strikes pushed oil prices to $100 and raised fears of further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Read →
Oil at $100 fuels global bond sell-off
Financial Times · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
Brent crude's surge above $100 a barrel for the first time since May deepened a global bond sell-off. The move threatens prolonged inflation and a reset in interest-rate expectations amid Middle East tensions. Read →
Eni, Total near Cyprus gas FID for Europe
Bloomberg · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Eni and TotalEnergies are close to final investment decision on the Cronos gas field off Cyprus by end-July. The project aims to deliver first commercial exports to Europe by 2028 as the continent seeks closer supplies. Read →
Brent holds above $100, eyes big weekly gain
Reuters · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
Brent hovered above $100 a barrel on Friday, on track for a 14.6% weekly rise, after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and fears of wider supply disruptions. Kazakhstan also cut oil output after attacks closed its main Black Sea export terminal. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue
Oil 2US Natural Gas 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 1Coal 3Agriculture 2Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 2Environment 3Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 4Regulation & Government 5Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 3Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Brent hits $100+ on Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers in Red Sea amid U.S.-Iran escalation.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 88.91 | -3.6% -3.28 |
+54.8% | +36.4% | +23.6% |
| Brent | 96.71 | -4.0% -3.98 |
+50.1% | +33.5% | +22.6% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.390 | -3.0% -0.106 |
+89.7% | +54.3% | +40.2% |
| Heating Oil | 4.206 | -3.1% -0.135 |
+93.8% | +70.8% | +91.1% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
53.49 | -2.1% -1.17 |
+203.3% +35.85 |
+97.2% +26.36 |
+80.2% +23.81 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
87.75 | -2.7% -2.41 |
+160.2% +54.02 |
+129.3% +49.48 |
+327.1% +67.20 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
64.91 | -2.4% -1.58 |
+182.2% +41.91 |
+110.5% +34.07 |
+143.7% +38.27 |
Brent settles at $100.50 after Red Sea tanker strikes.
Reuters · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Brent crude settled up 6% at $100.50 a barrel following the Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers. The surge came as U.S. strikes on Iran entered their 12th consecutive night. Markets also reacted to Big Tech earnings misses on AI spending. Read →
Brent futures jump 7% to $100.69 on tanker attacks.
Caitlin McCabe · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Brent crude futures rose 7% to $100.69 after Houthis claimed strikes on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The move pushed 10-year Treasury yields to their highest in more than a year. Oil's surge added to inflation concerns alongside the U.S.-Iran conflict. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures hover near $2.91 as 32 Bcf EIA storage injection matches expectations amid heat-driven power demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 2.895 | -0.7% -0.021 |
-21.1% | -6.5% | -29.1% |
EIA posts 32 Bcf storage injection; futures tread water.
Kevin Dobbs · Natural Gas Intelligence · Thu, Jul 23, 11:09 AM ET
The EIA reported a 32 Bcf injection into US natural gas storage for the week ended July 17, slightly above historical norms and within poll expectations. Inventories reached 3,056 Bcf, 6.4% above the five-year average. The in-line build left prompt futures largely unchanged as ample supply offsets seasonal heat support. Read →
Kinder Morgan GCX full at startup; eyes next projects.
Chris Newman · Natural Gas Intelligence · Thu, Jul 23, 12:25 PM ET
Kinder Morgan's expanded Gulf Coast Express pipeline filled rapidly after entering service, easing Permian gas oversupply. Executives flagged over $1B in potential final investment decisions for additional egress projects in the second half. The moves strengthen the case for further Permian-to-Gulf Coast pipeline builds. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF surges near 4-month high to €62/MWh on Hormuz LNG disruptions tightening Europe-Asia supply.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh | 61.86 | -0.1% -0.04 |
+119.7% | +90.3% | +67.6% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu | 20.65 | -0.1% -0.01 |
+119.7% | +90.3% | +67.6% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu | 21.83 | -0.8% -0.17 |
+127.2% | +83.8% | +49.6% |
Buyers seek cheaper LNG from Qatar, UAE post-Hormuz
Reuters · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Asian and European LNG buyers plan to demand lower prices and supply guarantees from Qatar and UAE after the U.S.-Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz, raising insurance costs and forcing force majeure on Qatari deliveries. Qatar and UAE account for one-fifth of global LNG export capacity, all routed through the strait. The shift weakens their negotiating power and intensifies competition for cargoes heading to Europe and Asia. Read →
QatarEnergy extends force majeure on LNG into October
Reuters · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG supplies to buyers in South Korea, India and Bangladesh until at least mid-September, with expectations of further extensions into October as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. The company is chartering out tankers through mid-October. Prolonged Qatari outages will tighten global LNG supply and support higher prices for Asian and European buyers into winter. Read →
TotalEnergies earns $400M yearly on Russian LNG
Reuters · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
TotalEnergies CEO said the company earns about $400 million annually from lifting and selling cargoes from Russia's Yamal LNG plant via its UK entity, despite deconsolidating the stake. EU countries are taking record volumes from Yamal ahead of a 2027 import ban. The flows provide additional LNG supply into Europe amid broader Middle East disruptions. Read →
Power
What's moving · FERC weighs PJM governance overhaul amid data-center load surge and reliability risks.
FERC mulls PJM board reforms for faster decisions
Laila Kearney · Reuters · Thu, Jul 23, 5:46 PM ET
At a FERC technical conference, officials discussed shifting more authority to PJM's board of managers and reducing direct stakeholder voting to speed market rule changes. PJM faces power shortfalls and record-high prices driven by surging data-center demand outpacing new generation. Proposals also include longer board terms and greater state input to improve transparency and reliability. Read →
Coal
What's moving · IEA lifts 2026 global coal power demand forecast to +1.4% on Iran war lifting gas and oil costs.
IEA raises 2026 coal power demand 1.4% on Iran war costs
Bloomberg · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
The IEA said global coal-fired power generation will rise 1.4% in 2026 as the Iran war increases costs of competing fuels. This reverses the agency's February forecast of a declining trajectory through 2030. Higher coal use complicates global emissions-reduction efforts. Read →
Tata Steel urges overhaul of Australian coal export pricing
Resources reporter · Australian Financial Review · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
Tata Steel called for changes to how Australian producers set metallurgical coal export prices, joining South Korea's POSCO. The move follows similar pressure from Chinese iron-ore buyers on pricing benchmarks. It targets the PLV reference price used for most coking coal transactions. Read →
Anglo American expects H1 loss in steelmaking coal unit
Clara Denina · Reuters · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Anglo American said its steelmaking coal business will post negative underlying earnings for the first half. The update came alongside flat first-half copper output and lower 2026 copper cost guidance. The company is exiting Australian coal assets via a sale to Dhilmar. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Weather worries and Black Sea export disruptions lift corn, soybeans and wheat futures to multi-week highs.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 489 | +0.4% +2 |
+11.1% | +22.5% | -11.0% |
| Wheat | 703 | +0.9% +6 |
+38.6% | +30.5% | +3.8% |
| Soybeans | 1,249 | +0.4% +5 |
+21.2% | +25.0% | -11.6% |
| Sugar | 14.64 | -0.3% -0.05 |
-2.5% | -10.1% | -20.5% |
| Coffee | 297.0 | +0.2% +0.6 |
-14.8% | -0.2% | +42.9% |
| Cocoa | 5,400 | -0.8% -41 |
-11.0% | -35.2% | +125.8% |
| Cotton | 81.52 | +0.4% +0.31 |
+26.8% | +21.7% | -9.7% |
ND spring wheat tour sees 46 bpa yield in south, below last year.
The Western Producer · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Wheat Quality Council scouts projected 46.0 bushels per acre for southern North Dakota hard red spring wheat after Tuesday surveys. The figure is below last year’s 50.0 bpa but above the five-year average of 45.8 bpa. Intense heat since July 11 has stressed fields and lowered yield potential versus USDA’s July 10 forecast of 58.0 bpa. Read →
Black Sea attacks stall Ukrainian corn trade, lift wheat prices.
Miller Magazine · Mon, Jul 21, 2026
Russian and Ukrainian strikes damaged ports, terminals and vessels, cutting roughly one-third of Ukraine’s Black Sea grain export capacity. Spot corn trade in Ukraine has stalled with 30-40% of scheduled voyages cancelled. Romanian and Bulgarian origins command $25/tonne premiums as buyers seek reliable shipments. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Lithium prices hit five-month lows on restart supply and 2027 glut fears while copper eyes Cobre Panama restart.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 6.36 | +0.2% +0.01 |
+12.9% | +10.3% | +38.5% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) | 13,705 | -1.2% -167 |
+7.9% | +38.5% | +46.3% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) | 3,031 | -0.4% -11 |
+1.9% | +18.3% | +18.3% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) | 3,230 | -0.3% -8 |
+7.5% | +17.2% | +6.4% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) | 17,301 | +0.2% +38 |
+2.2% | +16.5% | -6.9% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) | 2,056 | -0.6% -13 |
-6.7% | -2.6% | -4.8% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) | 53,813 | -1.4% -788 |
+28.1% | +63.2% | +83.2% |
Zimbabwe secures $300M Chinese funding for Sandawana lithium mine
Mining.com · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Mutapa Energy Resources secured $300 million from Chinese entities including Huayou and others to develop the Sandawana lithium deposit. The deal advances mine and processing capacity at a site already producing ore, boosting Zimbabwe's role as a top lithium supplier to China. It supports Beijing's battery industry amid efforts to add domestic value through processing. Read →
Chinese investors back $300M Zimbabwe lithium development
Mining Weekly · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Mutapa Energy Resources clinched $300 million from Chinese companies for Sandawana facilities. Zimbabwe produced about 10% of global mined lithium last year and plans a January 2027 concentrate export ban. The funding advances ore treatment to 3 million tons annually and higher-value sulfate output. Read →
Lithium carbonate falls to five-month low on mine restarts
Staff Writer · Mining.com · Wed, Jul 22, 2026
Lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou exchange dropped to a five-month low near 144,000 yuan per tonne on restarted Australian and Chinese mines. CATL's Jianxiawo and other operations returning capacity signal potential oversupply in 2027 despite strong EV and storage demand. Prices remain up over 20% year-to-date but have retreated sharply from May highs. Read →
Panama considers state miner to restart Cobre Panama copper mine
Colin McClelland · The Northern Miner · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Panama is weighing a state-owned mining company to partner with First Quantum on reopening the shuttered Cobre Panama copper mine. Proposals include First Quantum holding 60-65% with the state owning the concession or a lease model. Near-record copper prices and economic needs are driving talks after the 2023 shutdown. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore holds near $98.50/t as China steel rebar dips to 3,063 CNY/t amid property weakness.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
97.5 | -0.3% -0.3 |
-3.2% | +11.1% | -39.3% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
398 | -0.5% -2 |
+1.1% | +7.9% | -43.6% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
426 | -0.1% -0 |
+3.4% | +10.6% | -42.9% |
Rebar futures recover near CNY 3,090/t on iron ore gains.
Trading Economics · Wed, Jul 23, 2026
Rebar futures stabilized around CNY 3,090 per ton after prior declines. Higher iron ore prices and resilient June crude steel output averaging 2.79 million tons per day lifted sentiment. Persistent property sector weakness with first-half real estate investment down 18% year-on-year and weather disruptions limited gains. Read →
Iron ore edges up to $98.47/t on July 23.
Trading Economics · Wed, Jul 23, 2026
Benchmark 62% Fe iron ore rose 0.09% to $98.47 per tonne on July 23. The move follows a 2.04% monthly decline and comes as Chinese steel output stays resilient. SGX and DCE futures reflect the narrow trading range near $98-100/t. Read →
China iron ore prices ease on demand-supply gap.
SteelOrbis · Wed, Jul 23, 2026
Iron ore prices in China declined amid an ongoing demand-supply imbalance. Domestic output fell 7% in the first half of 2026 while imports remained strong. The imbalance caps upside despite steady miner shipments from BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold hovers near $4,058/oz as Indian retail prices drop sharply overnight amid local rupee and demand shifts.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,058 | +0.2% +8 |
-6.2% | +21.7% | +125.6% |
| Silver | 58.64 | +1.0% +0.58 |
-16.4% | +53.6% | +131.8% |
| Platinum | 1,612 | +0.2% +3 |
-20.8% | +14.5% | +50.8% |
| Palladium | 1,253 | -0.8% -10 |
-23.1% | +0.7% | -53.2% |
Gold, silver prices fall sharply in India for second day.
Naya Look News · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
Gold and silver prices in India declined for the second consecutive trading session, with gold falling about 4,400 rupees per 10 grams and silver about 9,600 rupees per kilogram. The move reflects local market pressures on retail demand and currency factors. Spot gold traded around $4,058 per ounce globally. Read →
Gold drops Rs 591, silver Rs 1,300 per unit in India.
Devbrat Bajpai · Business Standard Hindi · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
Indian gold prices fell Rs 591 and silver Rs 1,300 per relevant unit on Friday, extending pressure from prior sessions. The decline tracks local buying patterns and rupee movements affecting physical markets. Broader spot prices remain elevated near recent highs around $4,058 per ounce for gold. Read →
Gold price drops Rs 4,600 per tola in Pakistan.
GTV News HD · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
Gold prices in Pakistan dropped Rs 4,600 per tola on Friday, following recent downward pressure in regional markets. The move highlights local retail and import dynamics in South Asia. Global benchmark gold held near $4,058 per ounce. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China export controls and US/EU/India magnet investments drive rare earth and critical minerals prices higher.
USA Rare Earth buys stake in French Carester processor
Eric Onstad · Mining.com · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
USA Rare Earth and InfraVia finalized deals for 13.6% stakes each in Carester, funding expansion of its Lacq heavy rare earth separation and magnet recycling plant commissioning late 2026. The move secures oxide output and integrates with USA Rare Earth's Serra Verde Brazil mine and US magnet facility. It advances Western friend-shoring of heavy rare earth supply chains amid China dominance. Read →
Lynas expects rare earth prices to rise on US MP deal
Reuters · Thu, Jul 24, 2025
Lynas CEO said rare earth prices could rally on growing demand for non-Chinese material, citing the recent US Department of Defense multi-billion dollar deal making it largest shareholder in MP Materials. The pact includes a $110/kg NdPr oxide price floor nearly double Chinese levels. Lynas also reported Q4 output up 47% y/y and average selling prices up 42% y/y. Read →
India invests $150M in first integrated NdFeB magnet plant
X posts / industry tracker · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
N.A.N. MagneTech will invest ₹1,250 crore ($150 million) for India's first fully integrated NdFeB permanent magnet facility in Andhra Pradesh, targeting 1,200 tpa initially and 10,000 tpa long-term from Q1 2028. It includes oxide-to-magnet processing, secured Australian heavy rare earth feedstock, and offtake deals with Indian auto makers. The project cuts India's 95% reliance on Chinese magnets for EVs, defense and renewables. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in Red Sea drive tanker rates and oil prices higher amid chokepoint risks.
Houthis strike two Saudi oil tankers in Red Sea, one ablaze.
Reuters · Thu, Jul 23, 4:47 PM ET
Yemen's Houthis said they struck Saudi-flagged tankers Encelia and Layla with missiles and drones in the Red Sea for violating a blockade. Saudi state agency SPA confirmed a fire on Encelia's bow with no crew injuries reported. The attacks add pressure on Bab el-Mandeb transit, a key route for oil shipments, following earlier threats and vessel diversions. Read →
Hormuz tanker crossings hit lowest since May 7.
Reuters · Thu, Jul 23, 11:10 PM ET
Shiptracking data from Kpler showed only one tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz on July 23, down from three the prior day. Commodity tanker crossings at Bab el-Mandeb rose to 32 from 26. The drop coincides with elevated Middle East shipping risks and Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs fall 3% as reform support fades, CCAs dip below $33 amid rulemaking wait.
EUAs drop 3% as reform enthusiasm fades
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EU carbon allowance prices fell about 3% Thursday after initial speculative buying on the European Commission's reform proposals failed to attract broader market backing. The pullback highlights limited conviction in near-term policy-driven price support for the EU ETS. Read →
CCAs fall below $33 on rulemaking delay
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
California Carbon Allowance futures slipped below $33 Thursday in quiet trading while participants await further details on pending market rule changes. The move reflects subdued sentiment ahead of clarity on program adjustments. Read →
SE Asia VCM could yield $12.6 bln yearly
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
A new report estimates voluntary carbon markets could generate up to $12.6 billion annually for Southeast Asian agrifood decarbonization projects. Researchers stress the estimate underscores persistent funding gaps despite the potential scale. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC extends comment deadline 30 days on 24/7 energy futures and perpetual contracts for oil and natural gas.
CFTC extends comment deadline 30 days on 24/7 energy futures and perpetuals.
CFTC · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
The CFTC extended the public comment period by 30 days to August 26 on proposals to allow standard futures contracts including energy to trade 24/7 and to permit perpetual contracts referencing physically delivered or storable energy commodities such as crude oil and natural gas. The move follows industry conversations and adds further questions for review. It directly affects the regulatory path for continuous trading of oil and natural gas derivatives. Read →
Hyperliquid RWA volume hits 54% of total, first time beating crypto.
CryptoRank / Bitcoin World · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
ARK Invest’s Lorenzo Valente reported that real-world asset trading reached 54% of Hyperliquid’s weekly volume last week, surpassing crypto-native volume for the first time. HIP-3 single-stock products drove much of the RWA activity, with Hyperliquid capturing $50 billion of the $79 billion DEX perpetual futures market. The shift highlights growing on-chain trading in tokenized equities and commodities including oil. Read →
Matrixdock completes fourth semi-annual XAUm gold audit with Bureau Veritas.
Matrixdock · Thu, Jul 16, 2026
Matrixdock completed its fourth consecutive semi-annual independent reserve audit by Bureau Veritas, verifying physical gold and for the first time tokenized silver reserves held in Singapore and Hong Kong vaults. The audit covers 574 bars from LBMA-accredited refiners and marks two full years of verification for the XAUm tokenized gold product. It strengthens transparency for commodity-backed RWAs. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Q2 earnings from Ovintiv, Kinder Morgan, Cleveland-Cliffs and Teck highlight record natural gas midstream and copper results amid production gains.
Ovintiv posts Q2 earnings of $456M, raises 2026 production guidance.
Ovintiv · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Ovintiv reported Q2 net earnings of $456 million and generated $1.3 billion in Non-GAAP cash flow. The company closed the Anadarko asset sale for $2.82 billion, reduced net debt to $2.995 billion and raised full-year 2026 production guidance to 630-645 MBOE/d with unchanged capex. Strong Permian and Montney performance drove 4% expected oil production per share growth. Read →
Kinder Morgan posts record Q2 net income of $867M on gas growth.
Kinder Morgan · Wed, Jul 22, 2026
Kinder Morgan achieved record Q2 net income of $867 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $2,199 million, up 12% year-over-year. Natural gas transport volumes rose 7% and gathering volumes rose 26%, with multiple expansion projects placed in service. The company raised its full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook more than 5% above budget. Read →
Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 revenues hit $5.2B with adjusted EBITDA up sharply.
Cleveland-Cliffs · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q2 revenues of $5.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $286 million, more than tripling the prior quarter. Steel shipments reached 4.0 million net tons with improving automotive volumes and pricing. The company guided Q3 adjusted EBITDA to approximately $575 million. Read →
Teck posts Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2B on record copper prices.
Teck Resources · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Teck reported Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion, more than triple the year-ago level, driven by higher copper production and record copper prices averaging $6.05 per pound. Adjusted profit attributable to shareholders reached $948 million. Cash flow from operations of $1.7 billion boosted net cash position by $756 million. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US imposes new 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners as oil tops $100 on Red Sea attacks.
US slaps 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 partners over forced labor.
David Lawder · Reuters · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
The Trump administration imposed 10% and 12.5% Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 trading partners including the EU and China for alleged lax enforcement of forced labor bans. The duties took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET Friday, replacing an expiring 10% global tariff and covering 99.4% of U.S. imports with exemptions for oil, gas, fertilizer and critical minerals. This maintains a tariff floor on nearly all imports despite the Supreme Court striking down prior emergency tariffs. Read →
Trump hits 60 countries with 10-12.5% forced labor tariffs.
Al Jazeera · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
President Trump advanced new double-digit tariffs on 60 trading partners accounting for 99% of U.S. imports, citing inadequate bans on goods produced with forced labor. The levies under Section 301 took effect Friday as the prior temporary 10% worldwide tariffs expired. The move sustains Trump's broader tariff agenda after the Supreme Court invalidated earlier emergency duties. Read →
Trump threatens major punishment after Houthi tanker strikes.
Reuters · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, prompting President Trump to promise major military punishment on Iran and the Houthis. The attacks extended the conflict to a second shipping chokepoint, driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since May with a surge exceeding 6%. Fears of wider disruptions to energy routes intensified. Read →
Oil surges above $100 on Red Sea tanker attacks.
Stella Qiu · Reuters · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
Oil prices jumped 7% overnight to top $100 a barrel after Iran-aligned Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The spike renewed stagflation concerns and added to inflationary pressures alongside new U.S. tariffs. Global markets reacted to the widening Middle East conflict risks. Read →
Oil above $100 and new tariffs fuel inflation fears.
Reuters · Fri, Jul 24, 2026
The dollar strengthened as oil prices climbed back above $100 following Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers and the U.S. imposition of new tariffs on 60 partners. Renewed trade war measures and energy supply risks raised inflation stakes for global markets. The dual developments pressured bonds and equities. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil rebounds sharply above $100 barrel on tensions
X / @Reuters · Fri, Jul 24
Traders highlight a 7% surge in crude pushing Brent above $100 for the first time in months, with diesel averaging $5.21/gallon up 39% YoY. Discussions link it to Iran-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and broader geopolitical risks. This stokes inflation and rate hike fears, pressuring stocks and bonds while boosting energy sector plays. Read →
Gold breaks key support targeting $4,000 level
X / @Emiy_XAUUSD · Fri, Jul 24
Traders note gold's drop from $4,047 to $4,021 on the 4H chart after breaching $4,040 support. Key drivers include rising September rate hike probabilities to 82%, Iran supply disruptions, and Senate rejection of ceasefire. Focus shifts to $4,000 test with short strategies on rallies and light positioning ahead of PMI data. Read →
EU natgas surges to 3.5-year high on regs
X / @USAmbEU · Fri, Jul 24
Traders discuss Politico reports of surging European natgas prices to multi-year highs ahead of winter. EU methane rules (EUMR) cited as tightening supplies further, prompting 19 member states to push for delays. Heating bill risks rise, with warnings that costs could climb more due to oil and gas supply constraints. Read →
Oil over $100 raises fuel transport food costs
X / @Naija_PR · Fri, Jul 24
Retail and trader chatter warns that Brent exceeding $100 will hike fuel, transport, and food prices, especially in import-dependent regions like Nigeria. Links to Middle East tensions and shipping drops in Hormuz. Broader concerns over inflation pass-through and economic slowdown if surge persists. Read →
Wheat soybeans surge on Black Sea threats
X / @GlobalEqTiming · Fri, Jul 24
Traders flag wheat and soybean futures at 2-year and 25-month highs amid Russian/Ukrainian strikes threatening Black Sea exports. Rising crude boosts biofuel demand while heatwaves hit growing regions. Momentum signals turn bullish for ags with potential for explosive moves similar to 1970s commodity booms. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
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No safety buffer left in oil mkt
Eric Nuttall (Ninepoint Partners) on CNBC Power Lunch · Thu, Jul 23 2026
Nuttall warns inventories are at near-record lows with Middle East supply already down 7-8MM b/d and refined product stocks tight. He sees record crack spreads as a leading indicator for higher oil prices ahead. Watch/Listen →
No way out scenario for oil
Helima Croft (RBC Capital Markets) on CNBC The Exchange · Thu, Jul 23 2026
Croft highlights extreme pressure in the Middle East from Houthi/Red Sea and Hormuz risks, plus Ukraine attacks on Russian tankers. She sees potential for Brent to exceed 2022 highs of $128 or even 2008 peaks in worst-case regional war. Watch/Listen →
Backing off energy sector
Scott Wren (Wells Fargo) on CNBC · Thu, Jul 23 2026
Wren discusses rotating out of energy amid oil surge and into underperforming sectors. Clip addresses market response to Houthi strikes pushing Brent over $100. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
51%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed rate hike in 2026
73%
+21pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
25%
+3pp w/w
Any Cat 5 hurricane US landfall before 2027
14%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
WHO declares new pandemic in 2026
7%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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