Last price as of Tue, Jul 14, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
OilTanker market soars: Baltic Exchange West Africa-China VLCC tanker rate rose to $188,957 per day Monday, up 92% week-on-week to the highest since March 10. Cotton up $4.69 (+6.1%) on increasing oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and adverse weather supporting prices. Crude up $2.40 (+3.6%) on escalation of US-Iran hostilities. Dutch TTF up $1.63 (+3.2%) on cold weather, outages and geopolitical nervousness. Iron Ore up $2.1 (+2.2%). Copper up $0.09 (+1.5%) on production declines in Chile due to water shortages, lower ore grades, maintenance and labor disputes. Palladium up $16 (+1.3%).
Kicker: Buy December 2026 TTFnatural gas calendar spread versus US Henry Hub on expected winter premium widening from EU storage draw and LNG supply risks, per recent European gas desk commentary.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent crude rose above $85 a barrel for the first time in a month amid renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation has injected fresh geopolitical risk into energy markets with tanker traffic slowing. Read →
Brent crude futures rose nearly 3% to $85.20 per barrel while WTI gained to $80.05 as the U.S. reinstated a naval blockade of Iran and both sides escalated attacks. Shipping data showed tanker transits at a two-month low. Read →
China imported 29.27 million tons of crude oil in June, or 7.12 million barrels per day, the lowest since October 2016, as refinery run rates hit a ten-year low due to weak demand and export curbs. Middle East imports also fell sharply. Read →
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,019.50 per ounce after falling nearly 3% the prior session, its biggest daily drop in more than a month, as the dollar eased and investors awaited U.S. CPI data. Elevated oil prices have heightened inflation concerns. Read →
Brent crude rose back above $85 a barrel in early European trade following the third straight night of U.S. attacks on Iran and renewal of the blockade on Iranian trade. Gold prices rose as the crude rally reinforced inflation concerns. Read →
OPEC trimmed its 2026 world oil demand growth forecast by another 190,000 barrels per day to 780,000 bpd, the third consecutive cut. The group cited Iran war effects while noting OPEC+ output rose 3 million bpd in June as Hormuz flows partially recovered. Read →
Asian refiners have restarted negotiations for spot US crude cargoes as Hormuz traffic stalls and Iran-US hostilities intensify. Executives report wide bid-offer gaps but active sourcing discussions for American barrels. Read →
Yongchang Chin and Alfred Cang · Bloomberg · Tue, Jul 14, 2026
At least two Chinese refiners requested no Saudi term crude cargoes for August due to weaker local demand and Saudi flow constraints. Other refiners received no provisional allocations, with volumes still subject to change. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures extend losses on Freeport LNG maintenance, near-record production, and 44 Bcf storage build forecast.
Subdued LNG feedgas and near-record dry gas production pressured US natural gas futures lower on Monday. Power demand stayed elevated from cooling needs but failed to offset the bearish supply signals. NGI forecasts a 44 Bcf storage injection for the week ended July 10. Read →
NGI projects a 44 Bcf injection for the week ended July 10, pushing stocks to 3,027 Bcf. Dry gas production averaged 110.4 Bcf/d while LNG feedgas fell to 18.15 Bcf/d. Henry Hub weekly prices averaged $3.130/MMBtu, down 18.5 cents. Read →
US LNG feedgas fell about 1.5 Bcf/d amid Freeport LNG maintenance trips and Golden Pass flaring. Volatility persists beyond the outage with nominations uncertain. The drop adds bearish pressure on summer natural gas prices. Read →
NYMEX natural gas futures fell 2.9% to $2.854/MMBtu as weather models turned cooler and Freeport LNG maintenance cut exports. Traders search for support amid adequate supply and storage surplus. Power-sector demand starts the week lower in the South. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF jumps over 2% to 52.5 EUR/MWh on low EU storage and Asia pulling US LNG cargoes amid Hormuz tensions.
EU imported 9.97 million tons of Yamal LNG in H1 2026, up 16% YoY across 136 cargoes, mostly to France, Belgium and Spain. Long-term contract volumes continue until the January 2027 ban while short-term deals ended in April. The surge reflects front-loading before the full Russian gas import ban and adds to Europe's supply mix amid tight storage. Read →
Pakistan LNG seeks an additional spot cargo for July delivery as US-Iran clashes in Hormuz block Qatari shipments. The country has already secured three replacement cargoes this month, the most since the conflict began. Renewed tensions tighten global spot supply and boost demand for alternative exporters like the US. Read →
Dutch TTF benchmark EU gas price climbs to 52.54 EUR/MWh on July 14, gaining 2.12% in the session. The move aligns with Asia's stronger pull on US LNG and Europe's widening storage deficit. Prices are now 52.52% higher year-on-year as summer injection pace slows. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM issues Hot Weather Alert for July 14-17 ahead of 90-plus degree forecasts, with peaks up to 162,699 MW expected.
PJM issued a Hot Weather Alert for its entire region July 14-17 due to expected highs in the 90s. Forecasted peaks reach 151,105 MW on July 14, 162,699 MW on July 15, 160,893 MW on July 16 and 154,942 MW on July 17. The alert prepares generation and transmission for rising load but requires no customer action. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures up 22% YTD 2026 on tight Asian supply and LNG price surge.
Senator Panfilo Lacson called for a Senate inquiry into surging Philippine electricity rates and consumer bill shock. Coal generates nearly 60% of the country's power, with Newcastle thermal coal futures up 22% year-to-date in 2026. The move highlights how higher seaborne coal prices are feeding directly into domestic power costs. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA July WASDE cut corn ending stocks more than expected, tightening 2026/27 balance sheets.
USDA's July 2026 WASDE report cut 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks more than trade expectations. Soybean stocks also fell below forecasts while wheat came in slightly above. Tighter balances support prices across grains. Read →
India's edible oil imports fell 30% in June with soybean oil and palm shipments declining sharply. Overall volumes dropped to about 1.1 million tonnes. Lower imports ease pressure on global soybean and palm markets. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME zinc stocks drop to 114,275t on July 13 amid eight straight days of draws, signaling tightening physical supply.
LME zinc warehouse stocks declined to 114,275 tons on July 13 from 119,200 tons on July 1, marking eight consecutive trading-session draws. The cash contract settled above the three-month price at around $3,571/t, creating backwardation. This points to tightening visible supply in the zinc market. Read →
LME nickel settlement prices reached US$16,405 per ton on July 13, sustaining a half-month high. The move occurs amid ongoing expectations of higher Indonesian supply and elevated exchange inventories. Nickel traded around $16,530/t near multi-month lows as ample refined supply limits recovery. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures fell to 744.5 yuan/t as spot prices dropped 4-6 yuan/t amid weak demand.
Dalian Commodity Exchange main iron ore contract I2609 settled at 744.5 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. Port spot prices fell 4-6 yuan per ton. Weak steel mill buying and softening demand weighed on the market. Read →
Finished steel inventories at major Chinese spot markets hit 9.35 million mt, up 21.6% year-on-year. Property sales fell 13.6%, curbing construction demand during seasonal slowdown. Elevated supply and sluggish end-user offtake keep prices under pressure into July. Read →
Benchmark iron ore price declined 0.42% to 98.31 USD per ton. The move extends a 3.56% monthly drop despite being 1.60% higher year-on-year. SGX and physical benchmarks tracked the DCE weakness. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold drops 3% as Mideast strikes and Fed's Waller comments fuel rate-hike bets, hitting below $4,000.
Spot gold fell as much as 3.2% to below $4,000/oz after U.S. strikes on Iran and Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks boosted odds of a near-term rate hike to 43%. Higher yields and a stronger dollar from oil spikes weighed on the non-yielding metal. The move marks the largest intraday drop in over two weeks amid ongoing geopolitical and policy pressures. Read →
Gold fell 0.37% to $4,119/oz and silver eased as U.S.-Iran conflict escalation triggered a sell-the-news reaction after prior war premiums built in. Platinum rose 0.94% and palladium 2.13% on separate industrial and auto-catalyst demand. Mixed Fed minutes and oil-driven yield rises added to bullion pressure. Read →
The People's Bank of China added 480,000 troy ounces (14.93 tonnes) in June, its largest purchase since October 2023, extending a 20-month buying streak. Official holdings reached 75.44 million ounces despite gold's 12% June drop and hawkish Fed signals. The move underscores sustained official-sector demand amid price volatility and de-dollarisation efforts. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Indian startup Vimag Labs wins 5th patent for rare earth-free EV motor amid ongoing China supply risks.
Bengaluru-based Vimag Labs secured its fifth Indian patent for a Virtual Magnet Synchronous Motor (VMSM) that generates magnetic fields via software, power electronics, and control algorithms instead of permanent rare-earth magnets. The $5M Series A startup has pilots with two-wheeler and passenger vehicle makers plus a manufacturing MoU with Jendamark, targeting 200-600 kW industrial uses. It addresses China's 91% rare-earth refining and 94% magnet production dominance, with export controls paused only until Nov 2026. Read →
China's broader rare-earth export controls remain suspended until November 10, 2026, following a trade truce. Beijing still listed MP Materials and USA Rare Earth in June, showing selective action even during the pause. The leverage imbalance persists for permanent-magnet supply chains. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · VLCC rates surge on Hormuz confusion, Baltic Dry Index hits 2,960 as dry bulk firms.
Baltic Exchange West Africa-China VLCC TCE index rose to $188,957 per day Monday, up 92% week-on-week to the highest since March 10. US Gulf-China VLCC index climbed to $154,987 per day, up 46% w/w. Uncertainty over partial Strait reopening pulls tonnage and lifts Atlantic and Oman-China rates despite low fixtures. Read →
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stays low amid US-Iran negotiations and ceasefire claims. Asia-US container spot rates climb, with West Coast highs near $7,400/FEU. Tanker rates hold steady to softer as chemical and product segments face downward pressure. Read →
Baltic Exchange dry bulk freight index advanced to 2,960 points Monday, gaining 0.54%. The move follows gains in the prior session and marks the second day of increases toward a recent high. Capesize and other segments contributed to the weekly 8.4% rise. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS review looms as Commission set to unveil proposals on 17 July amid lobbying over cap trajectory and industrial support.
The European Commission will present its review of the EU ETS on 17 July, a key driver of recent market moves. Proposals under consideration include extending the emissions cap trajectory into the 2040s via a lower linear reduction factor, slower phase-out of free allowances for CBAM sectors, and integration of permanent domestic carbon removals. These changes aim to balance industrial competitiveness with climate targets while potentially adding supply and easing pressure on EUA prices. Read →
Ten major multilateral development banks reported $162.5 billion in climate finance for 2025, up 19% year-on-year. Mitigation accounted for the bulk at $68 billion for low- and middle-income countries, with the World Bank Group contributing nearly half. The surge supports decarbonization and adaptation efforts globally, indirectly bolstering demand signals in emissions and environmental commodity markets. Read →
Alberta's largest oil sands producers signed a trilateral MoU with provincial and federal governments to advance the Pathways carbon capture and storage project. The initiative targets 6 million metric tonnes per year of CO2 capture by January 2035 from facilities in northeast Alberta, with potential expansion. The deal supports emissions reductions in a major producing region while tying into broader pipeline and market access goals. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid RWA open interest hits fresh $3.6B ATH as tokenized equities and commodities drive 30% of platform activity.
Open interest in Hyperliquid’s RWA markets reached a new high of $3.6 billion, up from the prior $2.6 billion record in May, while total platform OI hit a 2026 peak of $11 billion. RWA markets now account for about 30% of activity on the on-chain perp DEX, which offers 24/7 synthetic exposure to equities, commodities and forex. The surge reflects growing adoption of tokenized real-world assets for leveraged trading. Read →
Quarterly RWA perpetual futures volume rose from $12.37B in Q4 2025 to $202.67B in Q2 2026, a 16x increase, with commodities driving much of the growth on venues including Binance and Hyperliquid. Q1 2026 alone exceeded the full 2025 total of $313B. The expansion underscores rapid institutional and retail uptake of on-chain leveraged exposure to real-world assets. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil surges past $85 on Strait of Hormuz blockade fears, lifting energy producers' valuations.
UK gilt yields rose to their highest level since May as surging oil prices added to inflationary pressures. Higher energy input costs pressure downstream margins for refiners and agribusinesses reliant on fuel and feedstock pricing. Read →
Market participants now price in sustained disruption through the Strait of Hormuz following US-Iran escalation. This structural shift supports higher realized prices and capex decisions for Gulf producers and global trading houses. Read →
FireFox Gold announced expansion of its diamond drill program at Mustajärvi and start of drilling at the Sarvi project in Finland. The moves advance resource definition for the junior gold explorer amid elevated precious-metals prices. Read →
President Trump announced the US will charge 20% on all cargo through the Strait of Hormuz as the guardian of the route while reinstating a blockade on Iranian ships. The move escalates US-Iran conflict over the vital oil shipping lane carrying a fifth of global supply. Read →
Trump posted that the US is reinstating the Iranian blockade and will charge 20% on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz for safety and security costs. Iran has responded it will not allow US interference in the waterway. Read →
Iran's oil minister said exports continue as usual after the US canceled a 60-day sanctions waiver last week. The ministry has maintained mechanisms to neutralize US sanctions impact on oil sales. Read →
The EU failed to endorse a 21st sanctions package against Russia on Monday, risking weakened restrictions on Kremlin oil revenue. Key sticking points included LNG transport limits and measures on Raiffeisen Bank. Read →
Oil prices are rising amid ongoing US strikes on Iran that dash hopes for quick conflict resolution. Investors brace for June CPI data and bank earnings while energy costs revive stagflation concerns. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders in r/oil discuss the live US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, missile strikes on Iranian infrastructure like Kharg Island and tankers, and retaliatory risks from Iran and Houthis potentially closing Bab al-Mandab. Oil has jumped sharply with fears of supply disruptions through the chokepoint; daily megathread and price opinion threads see heavy speculation on price spikes to $100+ or higher if escalation continues, alongside SPR draw concerns. Read →
Posts highlight crude oil's sharp two-day rally reflecting geopolitical risk premium from US-Iran military actions threatening Strait of Hormuz flows. Traders note benefits to producers like XOM and CVX, pressure on airlines, and potential for sustained higher prices if conflict escalates; BofA forecasts and tanker hit reports fuel discussions. Read →
Forex and gold traders note XAU/USD losing 1.54% to around $4058 with silver down 2.8%, linked to high-impact USD events like PPI. Discussions focus on setups, risk management, and how macro news could drive further moves in gold and related assets. Read →
Commodity traders analyze COT data showing hedge funds as big buyers in grains and softs due to hot/dry weather and tighter balances confirmed by WASDE. Energy sees mixed positioning with diesel/gas oil longs jumping on Strait of Hormuz and Russia export ban concerns, while crude selling continues. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, argued markets must reprice for persistent elevated risks from Iran-related tensions and the Strait of Hormuz situation. She highlighted supply disruptions and the need for higher prices to balance the market amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.