Last price as of Fri, Jul 10, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
US Nat Gas (Henry Hub) drops almost 10% between today and yesterday to now under $3 following larger than expected weekly inventory builds and Freeport LNG export maintenance announcement Also higher crude oil prices are negative for nat gas as oil frackers produced a lot of associated nat gas. Crude oil (WTI) is slowly drifting lower beneath $72 as the market discounts the Iranian Strait skirmishes. The market seems to be starting to view IRGC actions as Houthi like harassment, but not stalling traffic. Cotton up $3.52 (+4.6%) on adverse weather and planting delays in India. Coffee down $12.8 (-3.9%) on technical selling and overbought conditions after recent rally. Cocoa down $214 (-3.3%) on profit-taking after sharp rebound. Tin (SHFE $/mt) up $1339 (+2.5%) on broader metals strength amid easing tensions. Copper (SHFE $/mt) up $230 (+1.7%) on improved risk appetite and weaker dollar. Nickel (SHFE $/mt) up $258 (+1.6%) on broader metals strength amid easing tensions.
Kicker: Morgan Stanley says Long SHFE copper calendar spread vs LME as China restocking accelerates on dip.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
U.S. natural gas futures posted their biggest single-day drop in more than three months, settling down 6.2% at $3.012/mmBtu after a larger-than-expected 61 Bcf inventory build widened the surplus over the five-year average to 185 Bcf. Read →
America’s crude inventories are flirting with dangerous levels near operational limits at Cushing while gasoline and diesel exports hover near records, leaving the global oil market unprepared if the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapses. Read →
Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s largest refinery in Omsk, Siberia, nearly 1,500 miles from Ukraine, triggering a fire and Wednesday’s Russian diesel export ban amid the country’s monthlong fuel crisis. Read →
India’s top oil explorer ONGC will build a 1.75 million metric ton national strategic petroleum reserve in Mangalore to bolster energy security after Hormuz disruptions, seeking government approval for commercial use of the storage. Read →
Ahmad Ghaddar, Robert Harvey · Reuters · Thu, Jul 9, 12:33 PM ET
Gasoline and diesel markets signal a supply crunch with European diesel margins at record highs over $60/barrel and U.S. 3-2-1 crack spreads at $64.58, even as crude prices remain subdued after Iran-related disruptions and Russia’s diesel export ban. Read →
U.S. crude settled down 2.3% at $71.83 a barrel and Brent fell 2.5% to $76.05 after renewed U.S. and Iranian strikes failed to sustain gains. Investors favored chip stocks on AI optimism while downplaying Gulf risks despite ebbing Hormuz traffic. The pullback follows Wednesday's 4-5% jump on escalation fears. Read →
Ukrainian drones struck 14 Russian ships in the Sea of Azov on Thursday, bringing the four-day total to 35 and targeting fuel deliveries to occupied Crimea. Nationwide Russian gasoline shortages have produced long queues at stations following strikes on refineries including Omsk. The campaign aims to choke logistics supporting Russian forces in the south. Read →
Global oil demand is forecast to decline 1.1 mb/d year-on-year in 2026, a 700 kb/d downgrade from May, after 2Q deliveries fell 5 mb/d amid high prices and product disruptions. Supply is expected to drop 3.9 mb/d this year before rebounding sharply in 2027. The first annual contraction since 2020 reflects war-related destruction spreading across regions and sectors. Read →
Brent and WTI are set for a net weekly advance despite Thursday's retreat as renewed U.S.-Iran clashes keep Strait of Hormuz flow risks elevated. Shipping activity has ebbed again after earlier recovery during the ceasefire. Markets weigh persistent geopolitical premium against recovering tanker traffic and OPEC+ output increases. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Freeport LNG maintenance and 61 Bcf EIA storage build drive US natgas to six-week low near $3.01/MMBtu.
The EIA reported a 61 Bcf net injection for the week ended July 3, a bearish surprise versus forecasts despite heat-driven demand. Working gas reached 2,983 Bcf, 185 Bcf above the five-year average. The larger-than-expected build accelerated futures declines. Read →
Henry Hub spot prices retreated as buyers focused on strong overall supply rather than summer cooling demand. Western and cooling demand outlooks contrasted with LNG support concerns. Cash market weakness reflected elevated inventories and production levels. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF slips 2% to €49.3/MWh on easing US-Iran tensions and Freeport LNG maintenance cutting US LNG supply to Europe.
US LNG shipments to Europe dropped to just under 42% of total exports in June, the first time below 50% since July 2024. Stronger Asian spot prices (JKM averaged $17.33/MMBtu vs TTF at $13.19/MMBtu) and record Egyptian buys diverted cargoes eastward. The shift tightens northwest Europe LNG send-out and slows storage injections at a time when refill pace already lags. Read →
Freeport LNG will begin a major turnaround at its Texas terminal on July 10, running through late August. Feedgas nominations have already eased and US natgas prices hit six-week lows on the outlook for lower exports. Reduced US LNG availability further limits spot cargoes reaching northwest Europe, supporting the TTF-JKM arb dynamic. Read →
Henry Hub futures fell to a six-week low after Freeport LNG confirmed major maintenance starting July 10. A larger-than-expected US storage build also weighed. Lower US LNG output tightens global spot supply, with implications for European and Asian benchmarks as fewer cargoes head to TTF hubs. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM heat wave eases but data-center load and capacity prices keep driving US power tightness.
PJM Interconnection implemented additional emergency procedures to sustain grid reliability amid ongoing high-demand conditions. The measures build on recent hot-weather alerts and federal orders allowing curtailment of large loads like data centers. This directly supports stable operations in the largest US power market serving 67 million customers. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Maxwell underground mine opens in Australia's Hunter Valley, adding thermal and met coal supply.
Malabar Resources' Maxwell underground mine in New South Wales entered production with a license until 2046. It will export up to 6.5 million tonnes annually of thermal and metallurgical coal to Southeast Asia. The first new Hunter mine in seven years increases Australian export capacity amid stable regional demand. Read →
Coal India produced 169.6 million tonnes in April-June FY27, down 7.5% from 183.4 million tonnes a year earlier. Supplies to the power sector rose 3.5% overall and 5.9% in June to 51.44 million tonnes amid summer demand. The shift reduces pithead stocks and moves the miner toward a demand-led model. Read →
Coal India delivered 51.44 million tonnes to power plants in June, up 5.9% year-on-year. Q1 supplies to the sector reached 154.75 million tonnes, 1.8% higher than the prior year. Rising electricity demand during peak summer drove the increase for India's dominant coal producer. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · China soybean buys and pre-WASDE profit-taking drive grains lower amid Midwest weather watch.
Soybean futures fell on profit-taking and technical selling after USDA confirmed new-crop sales of 136,000 metric tons to China and 120,000 metric tons to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. Corn also declined on similar profit-taking despite old-crop export commitments exceeding USDA projections. Markets eye an expected warmer, drier Midwest stretch later in July that could affect crop development. Read →
Private exporters reported 472,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans sold to China, with 336,000 metric tons for 2026/27 delivery and 136,000 for the current year. An additional 120,000 metric tons went to unknown destinations for the new marketing year. The sales boost new-crop demand visibility ahead of the July 10 WASDE report. Read →
Old-crop soybean sales reached 2 million bushels, up weekly but below average, led by China and Japan with cancellations from unknown buyers. New-crop soybean sales hit 15 million bushels, above the prior week and mainly to unknown destinations plus Colombia. Corn and wheat sales were mixed and generally below four-week averages. Read →
The July 10 WASDE report is expected to update 2026/27 balance sheets with attention on soybean ending stocks and any yield or acreage tweaks. Renewed Chinese buying supports sentiment while forecasts point to a short-lived heat and dry spell in the Midwest. Wheat faces limited upside risk from ample global supplies despite U.S. production concerns. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME aluminum and base metals rally on Middle East supply shock reviving Western smelters.
Magnitude 7 Metals is restarting one 75,000-ton potline at the New Madrid smelter in Missouri by year-end. Hydro plans to restart 75,000 tons at the Slovalco JV smelter in Slovakia. The moves follow a Middle East supply shock that has cut Gulf output by an annualized 2 million tons and driven LME aluminum stocks below 400,000 tons. Read →
LME tin jumped 2.05% while copper gained 0.96%, aluminum 1.04%, nickel 1.1%, lead 0.8% and zinc 0.81%. SHFE aluminum rose 1.45% and copper 0.76%. The broad gains reflect ongoing tightness across the base metals complex. Read →
U.S. airstrikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation are supporting base metals prices. The conflict continues to pressure aluminum supply from the Gulf region. Read →
On July 9, three-month zinc rose 3.05% and tin 2.98% at the LME close. Aluminum cash/three-month spread moved into backwardation amid tight physical market conditions. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP Port Hedland strike threat drives iron ore supply concerns as China port stocks stay elevated.
Brazil's securities regulator is reviewing a compensation arrangement tied to the July 6 resignation of Vale chairman Daniel André Stieler. Vale confirmed the payment was for a non-disclosure agreement, not severance. The probe adds governance uncertainty at the world's top iron ore producer amid ongoing supply negotiations. Read →
China Mineral Resources Group directed steel mills not to accept certain Fortescue Super Special Fines and Fortune Fines cargoes after July 15. The move affects lower-grade material already stockpiled at Chinese ports. It escalates Beijing's campaign to gain pricing leverage over Australian miners during contract talks. Read →
Imported iron ore prices in China traded in a narrow band on July 9 with a persistently bearish tone. High port inventories and subdued steel mill margins continue to cap upside despite supply-side headlines. Mills remain cautious on procurement amid soft finished-steel demand. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · China's central bank buys 15 tonnes of gold in June, extending 20-month streak amid price volatility.
Indian dealers offered discounts up to $19/oz this week as spot prices slipped and retail buying slowed to mostly jewelry exchanges. China's central bank added 480,000 ounces in June, its largest monthly increase since October 2023, extending purchases to 20 straight months and lifting reserves to 75.44 million ounces. The counter-cyclical buying helps stabilize prices while Hong Kong launched a gold central-clearing system to become a regional reserve hub. Read →
China's central bank increased reserves by 14.93 tonnes in June, the largest single-month purchase since 2023 and a 50% jump from May's 9.95 tonnes. The move extended the 20-month buying streak to 2,346 tonnes total despite gold's quarterly decline. This official accumulation contrasts with investor selling and supports price stabilization through counter-cyclical demand. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China adds MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to export control list, escalating US supply chain push.
China placed MP Materials and USA Rare Earth on its export control list, barring Chinese firms from supplying dual-use goods and technologies to the US rare earth producers. The move targets 10 US entities including defense-linked firms and restricts 46 US companies from Chinese government procurement. It signals Beijing's willingness to weaponize critical minerals leverage amid ongoing US-China tensions over supply chains for magnets and defense materials. Read →
MP Materials, Energy Fuels and Phoenix Tailings, backed by billions in US government support, are selling neodymium-praseodymium oxide and metals primarily to Japanese and South Korean buyers. Domestic US magnet manufacturing capacity lags, so producers ship abroad while China tightens export curbs. The shift highlights the challenge of building a full domestic rare earth-to-magnet chain despite Pentagon funding and offtake deals. Read →
USA Rare Earth is advancing its Stillwater, Oklahoma facility to produce rare earth magnets for EVs, missiles and data centers as geopolitical tensions with China intensify. The company aims to scale output in the only current US rare earth mine-to-magnet push outside China. The development underscores friend-shoring efforts to secure permanent magnet supply chains. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz tanker traffic grinds to near standstill on renewed US-Iran strikes, spiking shipping risks.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz came to a near standstill on Thursday after US strikes on Iran for a second day strained a fragile truce. Observable movements largely followed an Iran-approved northern route while the US-supported Omani corridor showed no traffic per ship-tracking data. The escalation raises doubts about normalizing flows through the key energy conduit that handles about a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. Read →
At least five ballast LNG tankers including GasLog Shanghai and QatarEnergy-linked carriers entered the Strait of Hormuz in recent days per Kpler and LSEG data. Twenty-two Japan-linked vessels including six large crude tankers exited between July 7-9, leaving only four in the Gulf. Renewed fighting followed Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and US retaliatory strikes earlier this week. Read →
Maersk will resume its Middle East-to-US East Coast service through the Suez Canal, improving westbound transits by an average of seven days and eastbound up to 14 days faster. The move follows its earlier resumption of some sailings under the Gemini network with Hapag-Lloyd and signals gradual Red Sea route restoration after Houthi attacks forced Cape rerouting. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs slip 0.28% to €78.82 as traders eye July 17 ETS reform proposals and upcoming auctions.
A French think tank proposed allocating 25% of EU ETS auction revenues to support industrial decarbonisation investments. The suggestion targets easing compliance costs while directing funds toward emissions reductions in covered sectors. It highlights policy debates ahead of the European Commission's July 17 ETS reform proposals. Read →
The U.S. EPA proposed scaling back 2023 heavy-truck and engine emissions standards, including reduced warranty requirements and extended lead times. The changes would still achieve nearly 90% of the original NOx reduction forecast. The move signals potential policy softening that could influence future transport-sector emissions trading demand. Read →
Microsoft reported a 25% rise in carbon emissions to 20 million metric tons in 2025, driven by AI-related data center expansion. The increase underscores growing corporate demand for offsets or compliance instruments amid voluntary and regulatory pressures. It highlights tensions between tech growth and net-zero targets in emissions markets. Read →
Energy Substantiation launched WTIC, an ERC-20 token each representing one physical barrel of WTI crude backed 1:1 by verified energy receipts. The token enables 24/7 on-chain trading and redemption at spot prices, targeting operational inventories via reverse Dutch auctions. It positions physical commodity tokenization as an alternative to futures or ETFs amid rising demand for always-on oil exposure. Read →
The CFTC stayed CME Group's self-certified 24/7 crude oil futures contract filed July 8, citing an ongoing review of round-the-clock trading risks under the Commodity Exchange Act. Chairman Selig called the filing inappropriate during the public comment period. The agency will review under formal 40.3 procedures before any listing. Read →
The Hyperliquid Policy Center and Phantom submitted a joint letter July 9 urging the CFTC to confirm that publishing onchain protocol software does not require exchange or broker registration. They seek codified guidance allowing registered firms to use blockchain infrastructure and formalizing Phantom's prior no-action relief for non-custodial wallets. The filing responds to the agency's fintech RFI. Read →
ExxonMobil and partners will spend $1 billion on the Usan Infill Project offshore Nigeria, expected to add 40,000 barrels per day of oil production. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission confirmed the investment marks ExxonMobil's return to drilling in the country since 2016. The move boosts deepwater output in Africa's largest oil producer. Read →
Turkey and Iraq will sign a one-year extension of their crude oil pipeline agreement within days, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said. The deal keeps flows open from Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan port after flows resumed late last year. The extension supports continued exports amid regional tensions. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Russia's diesel export ban and CFTC's block on 24/7 crude futures drive Regulation & Government moves.
The CFTC exercised authority to stay CME Group's self-certified contract for 24/7 crude oil futures trading starting July 10. The regulator is reviewing whether round-the-clock trading complies with the Commodity Exchange Act amid an ongoing public consultation on 24/7 futures. Read →
The US reimposed oil sanctions on Iran after a two-day exchange of airstrikes left a June truce in limbo. The move followed Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed US strikes on Iranian targets. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders discuss $MP (permanent magnets, deals with Apple/DoD) and $USAR (heavy rare earth mining/refining with 10-15% US gov stake via $1.6B funding) as a geopolitical bet against US-China decoupling and Taiwan risks. Chinese export bans heighten urgency for domestic supply chains; positions include long-dated calls and shares, with debate on execution risks, dilution, and long-term hold vs quick gains. Matters for metals as critical minerals become national security priority. Read →
Traders note natural gas breaking rising channel support and key moving averages on charts, with momentum favoring sellers below key levels like 287. Broader context includes hedge fund net shorts and lack of bullish catalysts from geopolitics or weather. Matters for energy traders as positioning and technical breakdowns signal potential further downside to supports like 2.6. Read →
UAE (Abu Dhabi) ramped crude to all-time high of 4.1 million bpd in June per IEA, boosting exports via own tankers after leaving OPEC+. Highlights supply flexibility amid regional tensions and potential surplus narratives challenged by geopolitics (e.g., US-Iran). Impacts energy markets as added barrels contrast with disruption risks, affecting forward pricing and inflation views. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Paul Sankey, president of Sankey Research, told CNBC that U.S.-Iran tensions are driving volatility but the real bottleneck is U.S. refining capacity and low gasoline inventories, not crude supply. He noted crude oil isn't burned in cars and highlighted new lows in U.S. gasoline stocks amid geopolitical risks. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.