Last price as of Thu, Jul 9, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Oil (crude) rallied yesterday (Wednesday) following the skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz and the US response. Meanwhile no relief at the retail pump as sky high refining margins continue (this is the reality part of the oil market that govt crude SPR releases can’t touch as much). Diesel is now $150+ per barrel with Crude (WTI) still reeling in the mid $70s. Cotton up $2.78 (+3.6%) on adverse weather risks tightening global supplies. Platinum up $40 (+2.5%) on technical rebound amid renewed safe-haven buying. JKM up $0.34 (+2.1%) on firm Asian LNG spot demand. Palladium up $24 (+2.0%) on technical rebound amid renewed safe-haven buying. Copper up $0.11 (+1.8%) on Chinese dip-buying and supply concerns. Silver up $0.99 (+1.7%) on technical rebound amid renewed safe-haven buying.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long copper vs aluminum on stronger electrification and AI-driven demand plus constrained supply.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent crude futures surged 6% to $78.63 a barrel and WTI rose 6.2% to $74.85 after President Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal was over amid renewed strikes. The move revokes a waiver allowing Iran to sell oil and heightens supply disruption fears through the Strait of Hormuz. Read →
Dutch TTF benchmark climbed 2.9% to 48.12 euros/MWh, up over 10% on the week, as U.S.-Iran escalation raises winter fuel supply concerns. EU storage sits at 50% full versus a 66% five-year average while LNG imports decline amid Persian Gulf disruptions. Read →
Benchmark European natural gas futures fell as much as 2.3% after rising in prior sessions, remaining near one-month highs. Traders assess supply risks from ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities affecting LNG flows from the Middle East. Read →
Brent crude gained 1.1% to $78.88 a barrel and WTI rose 1.2% to $74.37 after U.S. forces struck Iranian targets, denting ceasefire hopes. Analysts cite a persistent war-risk premium supporting prices near-term amid Strait of Hormuz concerns. Read →
War disruptions, weather extremes and potential outages could still drive sharp LNG price spikes into winter for Europe and Asia. The analysis highlights vulnerabilities in global gas supply chains strained by Middle East conflict. Read →
Both benchmarks settled at multi-week highs with Brent up more than 5% to $78.02 and WTI up over 5% to $73.52 before post-settlement gains exceeded $1. Trump threatened additional strikes and said the interim Iran deal was over while the US revoked sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales after tanker attacks in Hormuz. Read →
Brent surged 4.7% to $78.42 and WTI rose 5.9% to $74.61 in early trade after Trump said the ceasefire was over and the US revoked Iran's oil-sales waiver. The front-month curve shifted back into backwardation, signaling renewed premium for prompt crude amid fears of supply disruptions from renewed Persian Gulf hostilities. Read →
Front-month WTI rose 0.9% to $74.20 and Brent gained 1.0% to $78.78 following continued US strikes on Iran. Markets priced in sustained war-risk premium and reduced tanker traffic through Hormuz after the latest escalation. Read →
Brent futures jumped nearly 7% and briefly topped $80 while WTI gained around 6% after Trump assessed the interim peace deal as over and US forces launched a second night of strikes. The moves revived supply concerns for the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tanker attacks. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natgas futures hold near $3.22/MMBtu as LNG feedgas rebounds to 18.2 Bcf/d amid heat-driven power burn.
US LNG feedgas demand recovered to 18.2 Bcf/d on Wednesday despite Sabine Pass compressor maintenance that cut nominations to 3.9 Bcf/d Tuesday. Plaquemines ran near full at 3.9 Bcf/d and Freeport hit a summer high of 1.7 Bcf/d. The stabilization supports export demand that averaged 17.8 bcfd in July so far. Read →
August NYMEX futures see-sawed and closed little changed as traders weighed hot weather, lighter production, and expectations for a 55 Bcf storage build. Geopolitical uncertainty from Iran-US tensions added volatility but failed to break the summer trading range. Read →
August futures slipped less than a penny to $3.259/MMBtu midday as Middle East escalation and strong two-week heat maps provided little lift. Traders focused on domestic fundamentals including ample supply and upcoming storage data. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF jumps 5% as Qatari LNG tanker hit near Hormuz renews supply-risk premium.
The Al Rekayyat, a Qatari-owned LNG carrier, was struck overnight Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz exit, sparking an engine-room fire and stranding it off Oman. Industry sources say cargo tanks appear secure with low explosion risk, but two support vessels stand by. The incident follows recent tanker attacks and escalates risks to 20% of global seaborne LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE. Read →
Dutch TTF front-month rose 3% to 47.9 EUR/MWh and UK NBP climbed 5.4% as renewed US-Iran tensions and tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz revived fears over LNG shipping security. The Strait handles 20% of global LNG; any prolonged disruption adds a geopolitical premium despite Europe’s summer storage season. Traders repriced supply risks sharply higher. Read →
European TTF prices rallied 5% Wednesday for a second session after US strikes on Iran and fresh attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The move directly reflects heightened risk to Qatari and Emirati LNG exports that transit the chokepoint. Renewed hostilities threaten the fragile ceasefire and keep a supply-premium bid in the European benchmark. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures hover near $129/t as Vietnam eyes more coal plants amid Iran war LNG disruptions.
Vietnam's trade ministry proposed developing additional coal-fired power on an appropriate scale to strengthen energy security after US-Iran conflict constrained LNG supplies. The country has achieved only 7.3% of its 2030 LNG capacity goal. This supports continued reliance on thermal coal imports and generation. Read →
Thermal coal futures dropped below $130 per ton, returning to levels seen before Middle East tensions as US-Iran peace talks raised hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening. Newcastle-linked prices traded around $128-129/t recently. The decline reflects easing geopolitical risk premiums in the thermal coal market. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · China's 472k MT soybean purchase drives soy higher while corn and wheat stall ahead of Friday's USDA WASDE.
USDA confirmed private exporters sold 472,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China, the biggest daily total since November 2025. State trader Cofco booked additional cargoes. The purchases extend a buying wave tied to the US-China trade thaw and bolster expectations Beijing will meet commitments. Read →
Michelle Rook · AgWeb · Wed, Jul 8, 2026, 10:31 AM ET
Soybean futures held firm after USDA flash sales confirmed 17.3 million bushels to China. November beans approached $12 amid crude oil strength. Corn and wheat futures pulled back on technical selling and chart resistance despite prior weather support. Read →
September corn futures fell 8.75 cents to $4.35 per bushel on technical selling ahead of Friday's July WASDE. December corn dropped 8 cents. Traders await export sales data and updated production, export, and stock projections amid expected rainfall in the Corn Belt. Read →
Wheat harvest is progressing in Michigan with producers noting rapid dry-down and strong yields. The crop faces typical quality checks but overall prospects remain positive as combines roll. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME aluminium cash prices rise 0.71% on renewed Middle East supply risks while SHFE aluminium rebounds 0.68%.
India’s Material Recycling Association of India (MRAI) called for abolition of the 2.5% basic customs duty on aluminium scrap. The levy raises costs for recyclers that import 80-85% of needs amid 1.8-2mn t annual imports and growing secondary output to 2.2mn t. Removal would aid SMEs, downstream manufacturers and India’s recycling ambitions as other base-metal scraps are already duty-free. Read →
LME aluminium cash bid climbed to $3,140.50/t on July 8 from $3,118/t, up 0.71%. Renewed Middle East tensions lifted prices amid supply-disruption fears for the region’s 9% share of global smelting capacity. The move contrasts broader base-metals softness and highlights aluminium’s sensitivity to geopolitical logistics risks. Read →
SHFE cast aluminium alloy warrants declined 510 mt to 22,727 mt on July 8. The drop signals tightening physical availability in Shanghai despite volatile price action. Lower warrants can support nearby premiums and spot buying interest in China’s aluminium market. Read →
The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract settled at RMB 23,075/t, up 0.68%. Prices extended a volatile rebound as position reductions and short-covering supported the session. The gain occurs alongside broader base-metals caution and follows earlier weakness in the complex. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP Port Hedland strike threat and China port restrictions on Fortescue lift iron ore to near $99/t amid easing steel demand.
Hundreds of BHP port and maintenance workers at Port Hedland in Western Australia voted for an eight-hour stoppage on July 16 after six months of failed labor talks for a four-year deal. The action targets operations shipping up to $80 million daily in iron ore exports. Unions and BHP are scheduled to meet July 14 to potentially avert disruption. Read →
China Mineral Resources Group verbally instructed some steel mills not to take delivery of Fortescue's Super Special Fines and Fortune Fines from July 15. The low-grade products represent nearly 5% of major Chinese port iron ore stocks at 7.22 million tons as of June 30. Fortescue continues supply negotiations with CMRG. Read →
Iron ore prices advanced back above $100 per ton driven by potential disruptions at BHP's Port Hedland operations. Chinese mills remain cautious buyers. Persistent market backwardation signals expectations of softer prices ahead despite the near-term lift. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Central bank gold buying, led by China’s 15t June purchase, supports prices amid ETF outflows and hawkish Fed signals.
The People’s Bank of China added 14.93 tonnes of gold in June, extending its buying streak to 20 consecutive months and lifting reserves to 2,346 tonnes. This marks the largest monthly purchase since October 2023, executed as prices fell below key technical levels. Persistent official-sector demand provides structural support for gold even as investor flows weaken. Read →
Physically backed gold ETFs recorded $8.9 billion in net outflows in June across all regions, with North America leading the decline, trimming global AUM to $526 billion and holdings to 4,047 tonnes. Despite the monthly setback, first-half inflows remained positive at $8 billion, driven by Asia’s record $12 billion addition. The data highlights diverging behavior between retail and institutional investors amid policy uncertainty. Read →
The June FOMC minutes, released July 8, revealed a 9-8 split among Fed officials on prospects for a 2026 rate hike, prompting immediate selling in precious metals. Spot gold dropped 0.75% to around $4,075 and silver fell 2.83% to $58.27, deepening corrections from January highs. Markets now await the July 14 CPI release for further clarity on policy direction. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Canada backs Teck Trail expansion for germanium, gallium, antimony output amid China controls.
Teck signed a framework agreement with Canada's Growth Fund and Critical Minerals Accelerator for up to C$400 million equity-like investment plus up to C$850 million total at its Trail smelter. The deal targets doubling germanium and antimony capacity and adding gallium production. It includes Canadian offtake rights to strengthen non-Chinese supply of these defense and tech-critical minerals. Read →
Oil India Limited explores graphite and vanadium reserves in Arunachal Pradesh, home to over one-third of India's graphite. The push targets battery-grade graphite supply for EVs amid China's 80% global natural graphite and 90% refining dominance. Local youth seek jobs from projects in the China-disputed region. Read →
At Canada's largest trade mission to Tokyo, firms signed over C$1 billion in mining investment and offtake deals focused on gallium, graphite, and rare earths. Ministers discussed joint stockpiling. The moves follow G7 targets to cut single-supplier dependence on rare earths and magnets below 60% by 2030. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz attacks drive tanker diversions and dry bulk slips to 2,871 as VLCCs edge higher.
Qatari LNG tankers Al Ghariya, Duhail and Al Ruwais plus Indian VLCC Lila Vadinar reversed course near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday and Wednesday. Attacks on a Qatari LNG carrier and Saudi crude tanker prompted maritime authorities to raise the threat level to severe. Three VLCCs carrying Emirati, Qatari and Saudi crude exited the strait, while a queue of ballast LNG vessels built up off Ras Laffan. Read →
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index fell 4 points or 0.14% to 2,871 on July 8, snapping a six-day winning streak. Larger-vessel segments, especially Capesize, drove the decline. The index remains up 1.88% month-over-month and more than 100% year-over-year. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU Commission drafts ETS overhaul for slower cuts, more free permits to industry ahead of July 17 proposal.
Kate Abnett · Reuters · Wed, Jul 8, 2026, 9:47 AM ET
European Commission plans to propose extending emissions timelines into the 2040s and increasing free CO2 permits for industries in exchange for decarbonization investments. The overhaul targets alignment with the 90% emissions cut goal by 2040 while addressing competitiveness concerns; it could deliver an extra €6 billion in free permits and lower the linear reduction factor. This directly affects EUA supply and pricing in the EU ETS by easing near-term compliance burdens for covered sectors. Read →
EPA finalized the RFS Set 2 rule with the highest renewable fuel volume obligations in program history for 2026 and 2027. Volumes require over 60% growth in biodiesel and renewable diesel production versus 2025, driving major new demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks. The policy strengthens RIN values and supports U.S. biofuel output while cutting reliance on imported energy. Read →
Communities for a Better Environment sued CARB, alleging the May approval of cap-and-invest amendments violated CEQA by skipping proper environmental analysis of a new industrial decarbonization incentive. The changes include up to $4 billion in allowances for polluters and could reduce climate fund revenues by $2 billion annually. The suit targets the program's integrity amid ongoing California carbon allowance market operations. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · BP CEO Meg O'Neill calls for fewer, better investment choices and tighter capex as BP refocuses on core oil and gas.
New BP CEO Meg O'Neill, in a LinkedIn post marking her 100th day, said the company must be deliberate on investments, simplify its portfolio, cut costs and tighten capital spending while refocusing on core oil and gas after its renewables push. The move signals continued strategy reset under new leadership including board changes. It matters for oil and gas as BP signals disciplined upstream spending amid portfolio optimization. Read →
Trilogy Metals posted a Q2 net loss of $6.3 million, widened by non-cash derivative adjustments and higher JV losses, with $38.8 million cash. The Arctic copper-zinc project entered the FAST-41 federal permitting program and Section 404 permitting began, with a funded 5,400-meter 2026 drilling program underway. The $35.6 million DOW strategic investment deadline extended to July 31. It matters for copper and critical minerals as expedited U.S. permitting advances a high-grade domestic deposit. Read →
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said he will discuss signing an offshore exploration contract for Mediterranean Block 3 with Syrian officials, building on a May MoU with partners QatarEnergy and ConocoPhillips. Onshore activities remain off the table due to insecurity. It matters for oil and gas as a major signals renewed exploration interest in Syria amid post-conflict opportunities. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Russia bans diesel exports until July 31 after Ukrainian strikes spark fuel shortages, lifting US diesel futures sharply.
Russia imposed a temporary ban on diesel exports until July 31 to boost domestic supplies following Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries that caused shortages and price spikes. Deputy PM Novak said Russia will begin importing fuel in July. The move tightens global diesel availability and drove the biggest daily gain in US diesel futures in four years. Read →
China removed restrictions on refined fuel exports for the rest of July and allowed private refiner ZPC to resume shipments after a four-month halt. Refiners target about 3 million metric tons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports this month. The easing follows an interim US-Iran deal and aims to normalize operations after earlier curbs to protect domestic supplies. Read →
President Trump directed the Treasury, Commerce and USTR to prepare measures to cut off all US trade with Spain, including visits, over defense spending disputes. Officials will present a menu of Spanish products for potential embargo in coming days. Spain's key US imports include pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment and petroleum products. Read →
US diesel futures rose sharply on the Russian export ban amid ongoing supply uncertainty from Middle East tensions. The move followed Ukrainian strikes that reduced Russian output and prompted domestic shortages. Buyers seeking alternatives could benefit US refiners while pressuring global prices higher. Read →
Oil prices rose after President Trump said the US-Iran memorandum was over amid renewed attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. The US struck Iranian targets and revoked waivers allowing Iranian oil sales. Diesel futures also surged on the separate Russian export ban. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders in r/oil discuss Brent crude jumping over 5-6% to around $75-80 after US strikes on Iran targets and Trump declaring the interim deal over. Tankers turning back from Hormuz and retaliation fears drive supply disruption worries. Markets price in higher volatility and potential for sustained upside if escalation continues. Read →
Commodities voice highlights uranium spot in mid-$80s after YTD spike to $100, but term price at record $94/lb for long-term utility contracts. Carry trades cushion spot while severe multi-year deficit requires higher prices to spur production. Geopolitical energy risks make nuclear a hedge. Read →
Traders analyze XAUUSD reclaiming demand zone near 4050-4085 after breaking lower, with resistance at 4115. Oil surge and Iran tensions weigh on gold as risk assets react. Bullish bias holds above key levels but confirmation needed for upside to 4130+. Read →
r/oil users note Russia's export ban on diesel to prioritize domestic supply, tightening European and global fuel markets. Ties into broader energy volatility from Middle East tensions. Traders see it as bullish for refined products and potential spillover to crude prices. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said that despite a ceasefire and rising tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, oil market risks around the Middle East remain 'very, very significant.' He noted China's oil import weakness is unsustainable and the country will look to restock supplies while shifting toward other energy sources amid the recent supply shock. Watch/Listen →
Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, appeared on the Bloomberg Businessweek podcast discussing the US Treasury's revocation of a waiver allowing Iranian oil sales in response to tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The episode covers the implications for the interim peace deal and oil markets. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.