The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA · Kickers · Archive
Monday, November 2, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,651
+0.5%
+37 |
Dollar Index
101.50
-0.4%
-0.38 |
EUR/USD
1.1226
+0.5%
+0.0060 |
US 10Y Yield
4.929
-6.0 bp
|
Last price as of Mon, Nov 2, 4:35 AM ET. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Crude down almost $5 (5%) as weekend escalation in Iran didn’t occur. Today is also a reversal of the Friday oil price rally.
At least 6 tankers (including one LNG carrier) were reported hit in the Strait of Hormuz and Arabian Gulf area over the past week (roughly 26 October, 2 November 2026) Latest hit was yesterday Sunday Nov 1.
This daily rate of Iranian damage to civilian oil infrastructure is not sustainable and is a real limit on how long negotiations can lack progress before additional pressure on Iran to stop such attacks has to be applied.
Qatari-mediated talks involving Iranian officials continued into a third day today Monday Nov 2. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi described them as “ongoing and progressing,” with Tehran prepared for “both defence and diplomacy.” Reports (including Axios) indicated President Trump prefers giving diplomacy more time before any potential post-midterm strikes; Secretary of State Rubio noted no decision on fresh strikes and a preference for a diplomatic path.
Iranian and US statements appear to be posturing rather than negotiation. US midterm elections are tomorrow Tuesday Nov 3.
Energy diplomacy also being applied in Europe: according to the WSJ this morning, the US is pushing for Russian mat gas exports to Europe to resume across Ukrainian pipelines. EU nat gas and electricity prices are close to multi year highs.
At least 6 tankers (including one LNG carrier) were reported hit in the Strait of Hormuz and Arabian Gulf area over the past week (roughly 26 October, 2 November 2026) Latest hit was yesterday Sunday Nov 1.
This daily rate of Iranian damage to civilian oil infrastructure is not sustainable and is a real limit on how long negotiations can lack progress before additional pressure on Iran to stop such attacks has to be applied.
Qatari-mediated talks involving Iranian officials continued into a third day today Monday Nov 2. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi described them as “ongoing and progressing,” with Tehran prepared for “both defence and diplomacy.” Reports (including Axios) indicated President Trump prefers giving diplomacy more time before any potential post-midterm strikes; Secretary of State Rubio noted no decision on fresh strikes and a preference for a diplomatic path.
Iranian and US statements appear to be posturing rather than negotiation. US midterm elections are tomorrow Tuesday Nov 3.
Energy diplomacy also being applied in Europe: according to the WSJ this morning, the US is pushing for Russian mat gas exports to Europe to resume across Ukrainian pipelines. EU nat gas and electricity prices are close to multi year highs.
Drivers are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice. Past Kickers by commodity and house →
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Copper rebounds as tech rout eases, oil pulls back
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 2, 4:44 AM ET
Copper rebounded 0.5% to $14,229.50 a ton on the LME after sliding 1.4% Friday, its third weekly decline. The recovery came as a tech stock rout subsided and oil prices pulled back, easing fears around global growth. Read →
Gold rebounds from one-year low on lower oil
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 2, 1:03 AM ET
Gold rose as much as 0.8% toward $3,900 an ounce after Friday's 3.7% slump to a one-year low. Lower oil prices eased inflationary pressures and dip buyers stepped in following the worst October for the metal since 2008. Read →
Oil slips 3% on Iran war diplomacy hopes
Reuters · Mon, Nov 2
Brent crude fell more than 3% to around $110 a barrel and WTI dropped 3.4% as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third day of talks to end the US-Israeli war on Iran. OPEC+ kept December output targets steady. Read →
Oil slides on Trump Iran diplomacy report
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 2, 5:10 AM ET
Oil declined after a report said President Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before resuming strikes after Tuesday's midterms. Brent fell more than 3% below $110 a barrel, erasing Friday's gains. Read →
US petrol prices head for record under Trump
Financial Times · Mon, Nov 2
Average US fuel costs during President Trump's second term are set to pass Biden-era levels as affordability issues dominate Tuesday's midterm polls. Conflicts have driven up refining margins and fuel prices. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 2US Nat Gas 4NGL/LPG & Petchems 1Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 2Coal 3Agriculture 2Fertilizers 2Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 2Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 2Environment 3On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 3Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 5Podcasts 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Oil slides 3% on Qatari-Iran talks and Trump diplomacy signals easing escalation fears.
Cash WTI 105.81 -4.59 | Cash Brent 113.56 -4.41 | Cash Br–TI 7.74 +0.19 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
99.58 | -4.4% -4.54 |
+73.4% | +63.1% | +18.7% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
108.55 | -4.3% -4.88 |
+78.4% | +67.3% | +28.1% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
2.986 | -5.4% -0.171 |
+75.1% | +55.8% | +21.9% |
| Heating Oil Dec 2026 |
4.522 | -3.3% -0.154 |
+113% | +88.0% | +80.3% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
25.81 | -9.3% -2.64 |
+81.7% +11.60 |
+32.9% +6.38 |
+35.9% +6.82 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
90.33 | -2.1% -1.94 |
+186% +58.69 |
+126% +50.36 |
+321% +68.90 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
47.32 | -4.8% -2.41 |
+136% +27.30 |
+80.1% +21.04 |
+139% +27.51 |
Brent slips 3% to $110 as Iran-Qatar talks ease supply fears.
Sarmeeli Mallick · Moneycontrol · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Brent futures declined over 3% to $110 a barrel and WTI fell over 3% to near $100.90 on Monday as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third day of talks to broker an end to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Saudi Arabia raised October crude exports despite Houthi attacks on its facilities. Read →
Brent falls 3% to $110 after OPEC+ holds December targets.
FinanceFeeds · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Brent traded near $110, down about 3% from Friday's January settlement, as OPEC+ kept December production targets steady in a Sunday online meeting. Iran floated a shortened two-day Qatari-brokered plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for US measures. Read →
Charts of the dayOil glut evidence, whale oil dream $12via @CRUDEOIL231 on X · 413 likesChart shows mounting oversupply signals in crude with prices pressured toward $12, highlighting physical market glut amid geopolitical tensions
Europe electricity prices per MWhvia @Object_Zero_
PGM cost curve SA producers loss-makingvia @mattkiu
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · Henry Hub spot holds near $2.90 amid rising LNG feedgas demand and mild weather capping near-term power burn.
Cash Henry Hub 2.562 +0.003 |
Physical cash price from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
2.913 | +0.5% +0.015 |
-21.0% | -31.7% | -47.4% |
Venture Global starts long-term LNG sales from Plaquemines Phase 1
Reuters · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
Venture Global declared commercial operations for Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 on October 31 after 22 months of commissioning. Shell took the first contracted cargo on November 1, shifting from spot sales to long-term offtake with Shell, Orlen, Sinopec, CNOOC and EDF at prices well below current European and Asian benchmarks. The milestone adds reliable US LNG supply into a tight global market, supporting feedgas demand at the Louisiana plant. Read →
US LNG exports hit record high in November
World Energy News · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
US LNG shipments reached an all-time monthly high of 10.9 million metric tonnes in November, up from 10.1 mmt in October per LSEG data. Cheniere lifted 4.6 mmt from its Texas plants while Venture Global held at 3 mmt; Europe took 70% of cargoes. Liquefaction demand hit a record 18 bcfd, with daily peaks above 19 bcfd, tightening the US gas balance despite softer domestic prices. Read →
US natgas futures fall 2% on output rise and mild weather
Reuters via Business Recorder · Fri, Nov 1, 2026
December Henry Hub futures settled down 5.4 cents or 2% at $2.898/MMBtu on Friday as Lower 48 output rebounded toward 113.5 bcfd. LSEG lowered next-week demand forecasts on milder temperatures; the March 2027 over April 2027 spread hit a record low of 5 cents, signaling ample winter supply expectations. Read →
US natgas futures hit eight-month high on LNG flows
World Energy News · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
December Henry Hub futures settled up 0.5% at $4.338/MMBtu, their highest since March, on strong LNG plant flows averaging 17.7 bcfd in November and colder weather lifting demand forecasts to 119.3 bcfd this week. LSEG sees output rising to 109.1 bcfd so far in November; analysts warn gains may fade if the cold snap proves brief. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane futures jump on Oct 30 as US stocks near year-ago levels after four straight draws and strong exports.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.335 | +3.2% +0.010 |
+41.5% | +33.5% | -21.2% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.287 | +2.8% +0.035 |
+109% | +90.6% | -8.8% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
2.030 | +0.7% +0.015 |
+172% | +129% | +25.1% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
2.059 | +1.2% +0.024 |
+165% | +123% | +26.9% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.391 | +3.1% +0.072 |
+104% | +89.1% | +23.4% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 14 | +1 | +15 | +17 | +8 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 102 | +3 | +74 | +74 | +12 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -724 | -26 | -388 | -357 | -230 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -313 | -16 | -115 | -103 | -224 |
| C5 as % WTI | 101 | +7 | +15 | +14 | +4 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
USGC propane and butane reach multiyear highs on demand
Hellenic Shipping News / S&P Global Platts · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
Platts assessed US Gulf Coast propane at levels marking one of the highest since September 2022, with exports holding above 2 MMb/d. Butane prices also hit multiyear highs at the Enterprise terminal amid gasoline blending and export demand, widening the Conway-Enterprise spread. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF drops over 2% to €101/MWh as EU storage hits record seasonal lows near 75%, tightening winter supply outlook.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
100.00 | -3.8% -3.94 |
+255% | +215% | +48.0% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
32.90 | -3.8% -1.30 |
+255% | +215% | +48.0% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
32.84 | +2.5% +0.81 |
+242% | +195% | +6.6% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sat, Oct 31
EU gas storage is 74.6% full, 845 TWh in store, 15.2 points below the five-year average for this date and 8.2 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 61.0%.
EU full 74.6% -0.06 pts d/d | Year ago 82.8% | 5-yr avg 89.8% same date |
Germany 61.0% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Germany misses gas storage target as cold snap hits
Bloomberg · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
German storage stood at 61.17% full on Nov 1, missing the 70% target despite SEFE purchases. The shortfall in Europe's largest economy and storage hub tightens the regional balance and supports TTF prices into winter. Read →
Germany fails gas storage target ahead of winter
Financial Times · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
EU storage is 75% full, well below norms, with Germany at 62%. The gap raises risks of higher spot buying and price volatility as the bloc competes for LNG cargoes. Read →
TotalEnergies buys 30% in Malaysian gas fields
Reuters · Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
TotalEnergies acquires a 30% operated stake in Lang Lebah and B14 fields off Sarawak to supply Malaysia LNG. The deal adds long-term Asian supply but does not move near-term TTF or JKM benchmarks. Read →
Japanese groups spend $21bn on gas supplies
Financial Times · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Japanese firms invested $21bn since 2023, mainly in US Gulf Coast shale, to secure LNG amid Middle East and Ukraine disruptions. The moves bolster long-term Asian supply security without immediate spot-market impact. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM files amended backstop auction plan with FERC to close 6.8 GW data-center-driven shortfall for 2028/29.
PJM amends backstop auction plan to close 6.8 GW gap.
Wisevoter · Sat, Nov 1, 2026
PJM filed an amended Reliability Backstop Procurement proposal with FERC on or around Oct 29 to procure capacity for the 6.8 GW shortfall in the 2028/29 delivery year. The revision adjusts cost allocation to tie charges more closely to recent load forecasts and newer large loads like data centers, aiming to start the auction in March 2027 if approved. This directly addresses FERC concerns over cost-shifting while responding to surging AI-driven demand that has already pushed capacity prices to caps. Read →
Abbott pauses Texas data center approvals for audit.
The Markets Cafe · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed ERCOT and the PUCT to audit all large-load interconnection requests, pausing new data center approvals until completion. The queue stands at 474 GW of proposed demand, over five times ERCOT's record peak, with 90% from data centers. The audit requires details on power demand, water use, ownership, incentives, and local impacts, delaying Batch Zero studies and energizations while the grid assesses reliability risks. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · India's coal-fired power output surged 25.7% YoY in October as hydro fell 26%, lifting thermal coal demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
147.75 | +2.0% +2.90 |
+51.6% | +49.2% | +5.5% |
| Newcastle $/t |
154.95 | – | +46.5% | +39.3% | +13.3% |
India coal power output jumps 25.7% YoY in October
Reuters · Sat, Nov 1, 2026
India's coal-fired generation rose 25.7% year-on-year in October, its fastest pace in three years, with coal's share of total power rising to 71.7%. Hydropower output fell 26% due to weaker rainfall from the El Niño pattern and rising industrial demand. At one point 100 of 191 coal plants had critically low stocks; government ramped supplies to a record pace, easing shortages by month-end while renewables grew but lost share. Read →
Coal India Q2 profit rises 53% but misses estimates
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Coal India reported a 53% rise in consolidated net profit to 65.16 billion rupees for the July-September quarter, missing analyst estimates, as costs climbed faster than revenue gains. Of take rose 12% and average realizations increased, driven by robust power-sector demand, but total expenses rose 17% on higher employee and infrastructure costs. The world's largest coal producer supplies about three-fourths of India's coal amid surging thermal generation. Read →
Indonesia sets November coal benchmark prices
Reuters · Sat, Nov 1, 2026
Indonesia published its coal benchmark prices (HBA) for the first half of November, providing the reference for royalties and domestic transactions. The move comes as the top thermal coal exporter weighs production curbs and export controls amid rising domestic power demand and global price strength. Benchmark updates influence seaborne supply expectations for buyers in China, India and elsewhere. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China's slow non-soy US farm buys test $17B pledge as harvest nears end.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
450 | +0.5% +2 |
+2.2% | +3.6% | -21.5% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
604 | +0.1% +1 |
+19.2% | +11.2% | -23.7% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,232 | -0.2% -2 |
+19.6% | +10.0% | -1.0% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
19.39 | +0.2% +0.03 |
+29.2% | +32.4% | -0.8% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
292.7 | +1.9% +5.5 |
-16.1% | -28.0% | +40.7% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,454 | +0.0% +1 |
-10.1% | -16.8% | +122% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.60 | +1.0% +0.77 |
+21.8% | +19.2% | -33.2% |
China's non-soy US farm buys lag $17B pledge
Reuters · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
China bought just $7.2 billion of non-soy US ag goods Jan-Sep 2026, the lowest since 2019 for the period, despite agreeing to $17 billion annually. Soybean purchases track closer to targets while other items like meat and corn lag, with analysts noting state buyers may be needed to meet goals. The shortfall adds uncertainty to US export flows for corn, wheat and other commodities heading into year-end. Read →
USDA lifts season-average price forecasts
Oliver Ward (Agri-Pulse) / Bloomberg · New Herald / Agri-Pulse · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
USDA raised 2025 to 26 season-average farm prices 5 cents for wheat to $5/bu and corn to $4.15/bu, with soybeans up 10 cents to $10.30/bu in the latest WASDE outlook. Cotton price also ticked up 1 cent. The adjustments reflect expectations for modest seasonal price recovery despite large crops. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Hormuz shipping standstill and sulfur squeeze drive urea, ammonia, DAP/MAP and potash prices sharply higher.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,738 | +0.2% +3 |
-0.6% | +7.0% | -29.2% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
480.00 | -0.3% -1.50 |
+17.8% | +11.4% | -41.8% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
440.50 | +1.0% +4.25 |
+13.9% | +10.7% | -40.6% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
793.50 | +0.4% +3.50 |
+27.0% | +8.3% | +12.6% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Middle East fertilizer exports drop 70% on Hormuz war
Fareed Rahman · The National · Sat, Oct 31, 2026
Kpler data shows Middle East fertilizer shipments fell 70 to 75% to 994,000 tonnes in September versus 3.41 million tonnes a year earlier, with the Strait of Hormuz closure blocking the Gulf’s 30 to 40% share of seaborne urea trade and up to 50% of global sulfur exports. Saudi overland alternatives proved insufficient; China and Russia fill some gaps at higher cost. Analysts warn today’s deficits will translate into reduced 2027 harvests and higher food inflation. Read →
Sulfur spike pushes US Corn Belt DAP to $850/ton
N. Paulson, G. Schnitkey, C. Zulauf, A. Dhakal · farmdoc daily / newherald.news · Mon, Nov 2, 2026 (updated from Aug 26)
Vancouver sulfur prices exceeded $1,000 per ton, up over 130% since January 2026 and 300% since August 2025, driven by Middle East logistical disruptions. This input surge, paired with anhydrous ammonia near $750/ton, lifted US Corn Belt DAP to around $850 per ton. Strong statistical correlation between sulfur and DAP prices signals further phosphate cost pressure heading into 2027 applications. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Copper rebounds 0.5% on LME to $14,229.50/t as tech rout eases and oil pulls back, calming growth fears.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,390 | +0.7% +99 |
+15.9% | +29.3% | +49.2% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,459 | -0.4% -59 |
+13.9% | +35.4% | +48.1% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,127 | -0.8% -25 |
+5.1% | +19.8% | +12.5% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,411 | -0.9% -32 |
+13.6% | +24.0% | +2.2% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,441 | -1.1% -173 |
-8.8% | +1.9% | -23.0% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,157 | -0.3% -5 |
-2.1% | +2.0% | -0.9% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
49,022 | -1.4% -672 |
+16.7% | +38.6% | +24.8% |
Boliden Q3 profit surges 67% on higher metal prices.
Mining South East Europe · Sat, Nov 1
Swedish miner Boliden reported a 67% rise in third-quarter operating profit to about €490 million. Gains came from stronger copper and zinc prices plus improved output at European mines. The company advanced smelter projects including Rönnskär tankhouse ramp-up while lowering Aitik copper grade guidance for 2026. Read →
China copper spot premiums hit fresh highs on tight supply.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Nov 2, 9:03 AM ET
SMM reported Chinese #1 copper cathode spot premiums rose to an average 1,250 yuan per tonne against SHFE 2611 contract. Tight domestic supply from smelter maintenance and delayed arrivals lifted premiums. LME and SHFE copper futures both fell overnight on macro pressures including hawkish Fed signals. Read →
LME copper falls 1.55% overnight on macro pressures.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Nov 2, 9:08 AM ET
LME copper closed down 1.55% to around $14,130 per tonne with long liquidation. SHFE most-active contract fell 0.87%. Hawkish Fed comments, Kioxia earnings miss, Middle East tensions and AI spending concerns drove the selloff across base metals. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Iron ore futures rebound modestly on Monday as China hot-metal output falls only 0.2% week-on-week to 2.32 Mt, defying maintenance and air-quality cuts.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
89.8 | +0.4% +0.3 |
-10.8% | -8.1% | +3.5% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
399 | -1.1% -5 |
+1.4% | +4.2% | -37.1% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
415 | -0.7% -3 |
+0.6% | +2.1% | -39.1% |
Iron ore rises as China demand holds up
Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson · Reuters · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
DCE most-traded iron ore contract rose 0.59% to ¥679/t and SGX December contract gained 0.61% to $91.30/t. Hot-metal output among surveyed mills slipped just 0.2% to 2.32 Mt as of Oct 29 per Mysteel, after some northern mills trimmed output for air quality and others began maintenance on weak profitability. Gains stayed capped by Q4 supply-glut expectations; rebar and HRC futures on SHFE fell 0.59% and 0.57% respectively. Read →
Chinese steel losses snowball as demand falls, costs rise
Kenji Kawase · Nikkei Asia · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Chinese steel producers face intensifying pressure from stagnant domestic demand tied to economic stagnation and rising input costs, especially coal. The squeeze is pushing mills toward higher exports, which risks escalating international trade tensions. Shandong Iron & Steel Group and peers describe being squeezed from both ends by falling selling prices and higher material costs. Read →
China HRC export price slips to $488/t FOB Tianjin
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Q235B HRC export offers at Tianjin Port for December shipment stand at $488/mt FOB. Overseas bids hover near $470 to 480/mt while mills' costs sit around $480 to 485/mt, stalling deals; transaction prices for other sheets fell $1 to 2/mt week-on-week. Domestic Shanghai spot HRC eased CNY 10 to CNY 3,230/t amid weak futures. Read →
36 listed Chinese steel firms post Q1-Q3 results
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Thirty-six listed Chinese steelmakers reported combined operating revenue of 1,366.2 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2026. Eighteen turned a profit; Baosteel led with 6.739 billion yuan net profit and 245.648 billion yuan revenue, followed by CITIC Special Steel and Nanjing Steel. HBIS ranked second in revenue at 99.018 billion yuan. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Gold rebounds toward $3,900 as dip buyers step in after Friday's one-year low amid softer oil.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
3,909 | +0.3% +10 |
-9.9% | -2.6% | +119% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
50.40 | +2.3% +1.12 |
-28.1% | +5.2% | +114% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,434 | -0.1% -2 |
-29.5% | -8.9% | +38.2% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
977 | -1.1% -11 |
-40.1% | -32.5% | -51.5% |
Gold rises 0.7% on softer oil, Fed rate signals eyed
CNBC / Reuters · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Spot gold gained 0.7% to near $3,901/oz and silver rose 1.8% as oil prices fell more than 3% on reports of Iran-Qatar talks aimed at ending conflict, easing inflation fears tied to energy costs. US gold futures added 0.3%; traders still price in a 73% chance of a December Fed rate hike after recent hawkish comments, with analysts noting technical selling and liquidity issues overshadow longer-term appeal. Platinum edged up while palladium steadied. Read →
Gold tops $3,900, silver above $50 on oil relief
Dipen Pradhan · Moneycontrol · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Spot gold climbed 0.7% above $3,903/oz and silver gained 2.25% to top $50/oz in early trade as falling oil tempered inflation worries ahead of US jobs data and rate decisions. Indian MCX gold futures followed higher while analysts said recovery hinges on whether tighter monetary policy expectations ease. No major new central-bank or ETF flow data emerged in the period. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Lynas posts record A$102.1/kg average selling price on 55% revenue jump to A$310.1 million as floor-price deals cover over half its output.
Lynas hits record A$102.1/kg price, revenue up 55%
Kalkine · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
Lynas reported September-quarter revenue of A$310.1 million, up 55% year-on-year, driven by a record average selling price of A$102.1 per kg (+88% YoY) from floor-price contracts covering more than half its production and bundling of light and heavy rare earths. Sales volumes fell 17.7% to 3,039 tonnes of rare earth oxides while production rose 6.5% to 4,254 tonnes, including a quarterly record 2,082 tonnes of NdPr oxide. Planned shutdowns at its Kalgoorlie and Kuantan plants will cut December-quarter output, though stockpiles will cover customer orders. Read →
Lynas revenue jumps 55% on record prices and floors
Henry Lazenby · MINING.COM · Thu, Oct 30, 2026
Lynas achieved an 88% year-on-year rise in average realized prices to a record A$102.1/kg, lifting revenue 55% to A$310.1 million despite an 18% drop in sales volumes to 3,039 tonnes. Floor-price agreements now cover more than half of output as Western magnet makers pay premiums for non-Chinese supply; NdPr output hit a quarterly record of 2,082 tonnes. The company flagged maintenance shutdowns at its Malaysian and Australian plants that will reduce near-term production. Read →
Friedland-led project gets US backing for scandium mine
Bloomberg · Sat, Nov 1, 2026
Sunrise Energy Metals Ltd., chaired by billionaire Robert Friedland, received US government backing to develop the Syerston scandium mine and refinery in New South Wales, targeting first production in 2028. Scandium is a critical rare earth element used in defense, advanced manufacturing, AI infrastructure and wireless technologies, where China currently dominates supply. The move advances Western efforts to build non-Chinese capacity in critical minerals. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · VLCC rates rebound on Middle East-China routes as dry-bulk Capesize earnings climb and LNG exports ramp up from Plaquemines.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.41M | +4.5% | +992% | 234.9 | 32.05 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$418k | -2.7% | +495% | 118.3 | 16.14 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$230k | +9.8% | +262% | 133.8 | 18.25 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$304k | -7.7% | +781% | 199.9 | 26.83 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$223k | -8.9% | +758% | 211.1 | 23.72 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$85k | +36.7% | +178% | 114.8 | 13.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -3.5% | +278% | 104.8 | 14.07 |
Report of Oct 29, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
VLCC rates rebound after finding floor last week
Monica Germany · World Ports Organization · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
VLCC rates on Baltic routes rebounded this week after bottoming late last week. The TD3C Middle East Gulf-China route rose 48 points to WS1262.5 for a round-trip TCE of $1.35 million; TD34 Gulf of Oman-China gained 89 points to WS659.29. Atlantic routes including West Africa-China and US Gulf-China also firmed, signaling a potential floor for crude tanker earnings amid ongoing geopolitical constraints. Read →
Capesize rates lift BDI as VLCCs rebound
The Business Times · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Capesize earnings strengthened across Pacific and Atlantic routes, lifting the BCI 182 5TC from $33,795 to $37,420. VLCC rates found a floor and rebounded on key Middle East and Atlantic-China benchmarks. Suezmax and Aframax routes mostly eased on softer demand and ample tonnage, while container and smaller dry-bulk segments showed mixed or subdued conditions. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EU ETS revamp proposal extends free permits to 2037 and slows cap decline amid industry pressure.
EU proposes ETS revamp extending free permits to 2037.
World Energy News · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The European Commission will propose on Friday changes to the EU ETS including extending free emission permits until 2037 instead of 2034 and slowing the annual cap reduction rate to 3.7% by 2031. The moves respond to competitiveness concerns from industries and countries like Italy and Poland while aiming to align with 2040 climate goals. Current EUA prices hover around €79 to 89 per tonne. Read →
D6 RINs drop to 4-month low after EPA delay.
World Energy News · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
D6 RIN prices fell to $1.75 per unit, down 34 cents from Friday and the lowest since April, after the EPA extended a biofuel deadline and delayed small refinery exemption decisions. Biomass-based diesel RINs (D4) also traded near $1.92. The drop follows record-high 2026 to 2027 renewable fuel volume obligations finalized earlier. Read →
India CORSIA entry may add 140 Mt demand.
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
India joining the UN CORSIA aviation offsetting scheme could generate around 140 million tonnes of additional CO2 offsetting demand from 2027 to 2035. Most obligations would fall on foreign airlines. This comes as supply of eligible CORSIA credits remains limited relative to projected needs. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · RWA perps volume hits $61.7B weekly, nearing Bitcoin perps on Hyperliquid and Binance with commodities at 28%.
RWA perps near Bitcoin volume on Hyperliquid, Binance
The Markets Cafe · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
Talos data shows seven-day RWA perpetual futures volume reached $61.7 billion, or 99.2% of Bitcoin perps volume on Hyperliquid and Binance. Tokenized equities made up 57.8% and commodities 28.2% of the total. On-chain RWAs excluding stablecoins stand at $36.8 billion per RWA.xyz. Read →
Tokenisation efforts gain pace ahead of 2026 clearinghouse acceptance
Kirsten Hyde · FIA · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
At FIA Expo, executives highlighted live on-chain US Treasury financing via Canton Network with DTCC, BofA and Circle. Clearing members seek 2026 regulatory confirmation that tokenized assets confer equivalent ownership rights for CCP acceptance as margin collateral. Read →
World Gold Council introduces digital gold platform
The Markets Cafe · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The World Gold Council published a white paper on its 'Gold as a Service' open platform to connect physical gold custody with tokenized product issuance and management. Tokenized commodities total around $5.5 billion or 20% of on-chain RWAs, with gold dominant. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Refining windfalls from Iran war drive record BP profit and LNG/gas deals by Mitsubishi, TotalEnergies.
BP posts record $8.5B Q3 profit on refining surge
Bloomberg · Fri, Oct 30, 4:00 PM ET
BP reported underlying replacement cost profit of $8.46 billion for Q3 2026, its highest in 18 years and up from $2.21 billion a year earlier. More than half the profit came from refining and trading amid elevated margins from supply disruptions. Net debt fell sharply to $13.9 billion, hitting the company's target a year early. Read →
Mitsubishi sells 49.9% LNG Canada holding stake for $1.6B
Reuters · Mon, Nov 2, 2:24 AM ET
Mitsubishi Corp agreed to sell a 49.9% interest in a holding company owning its 15% stake in LNG Canada to Blackstone Credit & Insurance funds and Canadian investors for about $1.6 billion. The deal keeps Mitsubishi's full LNG offtake rights, which will double after Phase 2 expansion. It closes in November and improves capital efficiency for the Shell-led project. Read →
Imperial Oil beats Q3 estimates on refining margins
Reuters · Fri, Oct 30, 8:08 AM ET
Imperial Oil posted Q3 net income of C$2.45 billion or C$5.11 per share, beating estimates of C$4.70. Downstream earnings rose sharply to C$1.56 billion from C$444 million on stronger refining margins and product mix amid global fuel supply tightness. Upstream production fell to 418,000 boe/d gross due to outages and turnarounds. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · China agrees to relax export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite and antimony, lift US ag tariffs in Trump-Xi deal.
China to ease controls on gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony; lift US ag tar
Brett Fortnam · Inside U.S. Trade · Sat, Nov 1, 2026
The White House issued a fact sheet detailing a deal between Presidents Trump and Xi in which China will relax export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite and antimony, lift retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products, and allow Nexperia semiconductor products to leave China. The moves ease prior restrictions on critical mineral shipments vital for semiconductors, batteries and defense supply chains. US agriculture exporters gain immediate tariff relief on key shipments to China. Read →
Russia to extend diesel export ban to Jan 2027 with quotas
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 30, 2026
Russia plans to extend its ban on most diesel exports through January 2027 while maintaining exemptions and quotas for global market supplies under the US-Russia diesel deal. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said a government order is being prepared, with exceptions continuing for agreed volumes. The policy supports the arrangement to ship hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel to ease global shortages and US prices. Read →
US to impose new 10%+ tariffs on 60 economies Friday
Alicia Diaz, Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Hadriana Lowenkron · Bloomberg · Sun, Nov 2, 2026
The Trump administration is set to impose at least 10% tariffs on products from dozens of economies including Canada, Mexico, the EU and Taiwan starting Friday after a stopgap 10% global duty lapses. The duties stem from a forced-labor Section 301 investigation. The action targets supply chains for generic medicines and other goods while escalating broader trade disputes with Canada and others. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
COT: Managed money net longs plunge 22% in week to Oct 27
X / @Ole_S_Hansen · Sun, Nov 1
Ole S Hansen highlighted the latest COT data with managed money accounts selling for a seventh straight week across 22 of 25 major futures. Natural gas shorts hit a six-year high, grains net longs collapsed 61% in six weeks, and silver longs hit a 2.5-year low. Traders note the broad liquidation signals deteriorating sentiment beyond price-weak markets. Read →
WTI holds 99.4 to 99.7 zone amid Iran-Hormuz diplomacy
X / multiple traders · Mon, Nov 2
OOTT traders including @diepthaolong posted short-term WTI charts flagging the 99.4 to 99.7 range as key with no change to midterm plans. Broader chatter ties price action to indirect US-Iran talks over sanctions, enriched uranium and Strait of Hormuz reopening. Satellite imagery of Russian energy infrastructure damage also circulates in the feed. Read →
XAUUSD near 13-month lows; traders post buys and sells
X / multiple traders · Mon, Nov 2
Gold hovers near 13-month lows after a sharp October selloff with RSI deeply oversold. Multiple accounts post intraday buy and sell setups around 3890 to 3910 with tight stops. Discussions note potential rebound into US midterms but warn momentum remains bearish unless key supports hold. Read →
UX1! chart flags 100 USD resistance break for uranium
X / multiple traders · Mon, Nov 2
Uranium traders highlight a long-term chart showing spot price at a 20-year macro resistance. A sustained break above 100 USD could open triple-digit territory in coming years. Iran nuclear talks and NPT references add geopolitical color to positioning chatter. Read →
Copper and zinc show tight physical markets despite macro pressure
X / @MetalBenderHQ · Mon, Nov 2
LME-focused accounts note copper and zinc backwardation remains firm with low Chinese stocks and rising premiums even as screen prices soften on macro concerns. Aluminum stocks are low but balanced; nickel stays oversupplied. Traders flag the physical-screen disconnect as a key watch item. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Ed Morse on Bloomberg Surveillance: energy risks
Upside and downside risks to energy prices plus refinery concerns dominate the outlook. Watch/Listen →
JPM gas spike to 100 EUR/MWh on fundamentals
European natural gas spiked over 100 EUR/MWh for first time since 2022 on low storage and Middle East risk. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
12%
unch
US-Iran ceasefire holds through December 31
26%
-3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by December 31
18%
+7pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
14%
-3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
71%
-6pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
6%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
6%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
13%
-5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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