Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Oct 10, 2026
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Downey's Take on the Past Week
Brent up $2.47 (+2.4%) on the week to $105/bbl following escalating Iranian hits on tankers, offset by Trump’s EU and Russia diesel jawboning as well as his statement of no Iran bombing until after Nov 3 US midterm elections.
Isobutane up $0.167 (+10.2%), Ethane up $0.021 (+8.0%) and Propane up $0.065 (+7.1%) all on stronger US Gulf Coast NGL demand and export flows due to Hormuz.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $6.67 (+8.9%) on colder European weather forecasts and LNG supply delays.
Cotton up $5.87 (+7.8%) on improved US export sales and China tariff relief prospects.
Isobutane up $0.167 (+10.2%), Ethane up $0.021 (+8.0%) and Propane up $0.065 (+7.1%) all on stronger US Gulf Coast NGL demand and export flows due to Hormuz.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $6.67 (+8.9%) on colder European weather forecasts and LNG supply delays.
Cotton up $5.87 (+7.8%) on improved US export sales and China tariff relief prospects.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Hormuz tanker flows fell to about 10 mb/d this week after attacks cut visible transits sharply from prior highs.
The angle · Own front-month Dubai crude versus deferred; backwardation should steepen on persistent Gulf export shortfalls.
TTF front-month rose toward €80/MWh as EU storage sat at 73% full, well below seasonal norms ahead of winter.
The angle · Long TTF winter contracts against summer; the curve should steepen on refill pressure and limited LNG arrivals.
LME copper stocks fell to a six-week low near 233 kt while Yangshan premium hit a four-year high at $135/t on China restocking.
The angle · LME cash versus three-month copper; backwardation should widen on prompt tightness outside the US.
Black Sea wheat loadings plunged 78% year-on-year to 1.6 mt in September amid vessel attacks and port strikes.
The angle · Matif wheat over Chicago wheat; the spread should widen as European origins bid against ample non-Black Sea supply.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These are live oil and natural gas prices from Hyperliquid's 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
|
WTI Crude · weekend
$91.21
-0.64 -0.70%
vs Fri close $91.85
|
Nat Gas · weekend
$3.23
+0.01 +0.34%
vs Fri close $3.22
|
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, October 9, 2026
Charts: grey is the prior week, color is this week.
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF |
81.43 | +8.9% +6.67 |
+189% | +159% | -4.4% |
| Nat Gas |
3.220 | +6.1% +0.185 |
-12.6% | +3.3% | -39.8% |
| Copper |
14,753 | +3.1% +441 |
+18.9% | +31.2% | +53.0% |
| Brent |
104.72 | +2.4% +2.47 |
+72.1% | +65.4% | +25.2% |
| Silver |
61.05 | +1.8% +1.07 |
-13.0% | +21.8% | +170% |
| Gold |
4,216 | +1.3% +54 |
-2.9% | +2.0% | +140% |
| Soybeans |
1,292 | +1.1% +14 |
+25.4% | +28.2% | +5.2% |
| WTI Crude |
91.85 | +0.8% +0.74 |
+60.0% | +54.4% | +14.1% |
| Wheat |
671 | -1.8% -12 |
+32.3% | +35.1% | -8.3% |
| Corn |
480 | -3.6% -18 |
+9.0% | +16.8% | -10.0% |
Macro this week
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Fut |
7,860 | +1.1% +83 |
+14.0% | +17.4% | +80.6% |
| Dollar Index |
102.23 | +0.3% +0.30 |
+4.0% | +3.0% | +8.4% |
| EUR/USD |
1.1206 | -0.4% -0.0044 |
-4.6% | -3.4% | -3.1% |
| US 10Y Yield % |
5.244 | -3.3 bp | +108 bp | +119 bp | +363 bp |
Tanker freight this week
| Tanker route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC · MEG to China TD3C · dirty, crude |
$1.48M | +15.8% | +2395% | $245.3 | $33.47 |
| Suezmax · WAF to UKC TD20 · dirty, crude |
$590k | +37.5% | +1204% | $161.5 | $22.03 |
| Aframax · USG to UKC TD25 · dirty, crude |
$325k | +35.3% | +739% | $181.5 | $24.76 |
| LR2 · MEG to Japan TC1 · clean, products |
$282k | +0.1% | +1167% | $185.1 | $24.85 |
| LR1 · MEG to Japan TC5 · clean, products |
$206k | -1.2% | +1208% | $194.8 | $21.89 |
| MR · USG to Brazil TC18 · clean, products |
$45k | -31.9% | +47.9% | $70.2 | $8.26 |
| MR · Singapore to Australia TC7 · clean, products |
$76k | -13.6% | +267% | $103.6 | $13.91 |
Report of Oct 8, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism, from the E.A. Gibson tanker report.
The Week Ahead
Scheduled events next week that could move commodities.
Wed Oct 14 |
US CPI for September 8:30am ET
Hotter-than-expected CPI raises odds of Fed holding rates higher, strengthening the dollar and pressuring gold and oil. Gold · Oil |
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Commodity Research
The week's most interesting commodity research.
Short-Term Energy Outlook October 2026 · EIA · Oct 6
Brent averages $105/bbl in 4Q26 amid persistent Middle East supply constraints and tight distillates; 2027 average falls to $84/bbl as flows recover.
Brent Mideast shut-ins keep 4Q inventories drawing
Diesel East Coast stocks 32% below seasonal norms
Natural gas Henry Hub 2027 average $3.16/MMBtu on rising LNG exports
Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 · IEA · Oct 7
Copper and lithium supply gaps narrow through 2035 as projects advance, but cobalt deficit widens on DRC policy shifts; refining concentration hits new highs.
Copper 2035 deficit narrows to 25% from 30%
Cobalt gap widens past 25% on export quotas
Refining top supplier share reaches 72% excluding rare earths
BofA raises long-term copper forecast · BofA · Oct 6
Long-term copper price raised 20% to $13,577/mt for 2031 on persistent mine supply limits outside US and tight Asian markets.
Copper supply discipline and warehouse deals tighten balances
Aluminum 2027 forecast cut 5% to $3,625/mt
Gold bearish on higher rates and stronger dollar
Will oil prices keep rising? · JPMorgan · Oct 2
Global oil market faces 1.1 mbd deficit in 2025 widening to 7.1 mbd by 2030, supporting prices to $150/bbl near-term and $100/bbl long-term.
Demand 5.5 mbd growth to 106.9 mbd by 2030
Supply non-OPEC wave insufficient to close gap
Prices triple-digit nominal levels sustainable
Consensus price forecasts, Metals prices recover · S&P Global · Sep 18
Copper consensus prices raised 0.5% for 2026 to 27 on tariff uncertainty pulling material to COMEX and structural mine supply challenges.
Copper LME price hits record $14,349.5/mt Aug 25
Gold consensus lowered 0.3% for 2026 to 28
Silver COMEX average $65.3/oz in August up 11.3% MoM
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
|
Europe gas storage lags, LNG disrupted · Columbia Energy Exchange · Sep 29
Europe may draw record storage this winter, testing 74 to 80 BCM limits amid Hormuz LNG losses.
Storage at historically low levels heading into winter
Hormuz disruptions cut key LNG flows sharply
Asian competition and weather will drive prices
Coal prices firm as gas spikes hit Europe · The Coal Trader · Oct 9
Thermal coal shows resilience while met coal carves a durable floor amid European gas spikes above €70/MWh.
Hormuz cuts Persian Gulf LNG by 75%
European TTF and Asian JKM gas prices parabolic
Met coal Indian demand pushes spots to $250
Gautam Jain and Ned Shell on the Promise of Carbon Credit Markets · Columbia Energy Exchange · Oct 6
Project-based carbon credits face scaling hurdles under Paris Article 6 rules and verification gaps.
Markets aim to close corporate pledge gaps
Regulation and integrity key to scaling
Emerging-country project focus grows
Gold silver bull case intact despite dips · CPM Group · Oct 6
Gold and silver prices expected to rise longer-term despite short-term technical weakness or further consolidation.
Macro conditions and inventories outweigh charts
Platinum above-ground stocks at 14 to 15 Moz
Silver deficits persist on investment demand
The Predictability Premium with Christian Lins (Part 1) · HC Commodities · Oct 6
Large producers refiners benefit from in-house trading for risk management and market access but face internal cultural pushback.
Stranded product or unfulfilled short risks high
Investors often discount trading as cash consumer
Commercial teams seen as culturally suspicious
Diesel shortage persists despite crude flows · Bloomberg Talks · Sep 30
Global inventories drew 4 mb/d in September as military escorts sustain crude but refined product deficits deepen.
Diesel structural shortage acute
Tanker rates 12x normal on Hormuz risks
US SPR buffers exhausted
Commodity Intelligence
Split 2-1 positive on oil; oil flipped bullish and nat gas flipped bearish this week.
The same questions to three frontier AIs, every week. Unedited verdicts · opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Where the panel stands
Oil 2 of 3 AIs |
▲ Up flipped from Down |
|
Copper all 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up 6th straight week |
|
US Nat Gas 2 of 3 AIs |
▼ Down flipped from Up |
|
Gold all 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up unanimous 6 weeks |
Line: the price at each weekend issue since Jun 20. Dots: what most of the three AIs called that week, green Up, red Down.
Why they disagree on oil
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI · changed its mind
▲ Up Middle East supply shocks and inventory draws tighten market.
Gemini · Google
▲ Up OPEC+ cuts, geopolitical risks, and robust summer demand underpin a tighter market. Inventory draws will push prices higher.
Claude · Anthropic
▼ Down Weakening Chinese demand plus OPEC+ production creep overwhelms any geopolitical risk premium.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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