Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Sep 5, 2026
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Downey's Take on the Past Week
Crude *a. up 10% this week on US-Iran fighting and tight Hormuz flows. *b. US retail diesel hit a US record $6/gal.*c. This morning (Sat 12:30am ET) US missiles hit an Iranian tanker in Kharg Island anchorage (Iran’s main export hub). No casualties; crew evacuated. Ship was off the terminal used for 90% of Iran’s crude, under the US blockade of Iranian ports/exports, and amid a “tanker-for-tanker” response to Iran hitting commercial ships. *d. OPEC+ meets tomorrow (Sun) with nothing expected; *e. Expect light trading Monday during US Labor Day holiday. *f. On-Chain oil trading active 24/7 with little change so far today (Saturday). See weekend price chart below.
Coffee down $53.0 (-15.3%) for the week on heavy commercial selling and profit-taking after recent sharp gains.
Dutch TTF up $4.97 (+7.4%) on geopolitical supply concerns and strong European demand signals.
Cocoa down $352 (-5.4%) on profit-taking after prior rallies amid improved crop views.
Corn up $25 (+4.8%) on speculator buying and weather-driven supply tightness.
Wheat down $33 (-4.3%) on technical selling and easing weather concerns.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long gold futures targeting $4,900/oz by year-end on persistent central bank buying.
Coffee down $53.0 (-15.3%) for the week on heavy commercial selling and profit-taking after recent sharp gains.
Dutch TTF up $4.97 (+7.4%) on geopolitical supply concerns and strong European demand signals.
Cocoa down $352 (-5.4%) on profit-taking after prior rallies amid improved crop views.
Corn up $25 (+4.8%) on speculator buying and weather-driven supply tightness.
Wheat down $33 (-4.3%) on technical selling and easing weather concerns.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long gold futures targeting $4,900/oz by year-end on persistent central bank buying.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Hormuz tanker flows and US-Iran strikes keep Brent near $95, with weekly gains of 6 to 8% amid ongoing chokepoint risks.
The angle · Long front-month Brent outright; backwardation should steepen on persistent Gulf export shortfalls.
Black Sea grain exports near standstill after Russian and Ukrainian port strikes, cutting Russian August shipments to half the five-year average.
The angle · Matif wheat over Chicago; Black Sea outage bids European origin premiums against US supply.
LME and SHFE copper stocks draw sharply while COMEX builds on tariff positioning, supporting a 10th straight weekly gain near records.
The angle · LME cash over three-month copper; nearby backwardation should widen on ex-US inventory tightness.
TTF and JKM LNG prices surge above $23 to 25/MMBtu on renewed Hormuz concerns and winter storage shortfalls, flipping regional arb.
The angle · TTF over JKM; European premium should hold or widen as Asia outbids ease.
BDI hits multi-year highs near 3,600 to 3,628 on Capesize strength amid commodity demand and route disruptions.
The angle · Capesize time-charter rates outright long; term structure should steepen on sustained Atlantic-Pacific demand.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These are live oil and natural gas prices from Hyperliquid's 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
|
WTI Crude · weekend
$91.46
-0.02 -0.02%
vs Fri close $91.48
|
Nat Gas · weekend
$2.94
-0.03 -1.11%
vs Fri close $2.98
|
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, September 4, 2026
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 91.48 | +9.7% +8.08 |
+59.3% | +46.9% | +33.8% |
| Brent | 96.28 | +7.8% +6.97 |
+58.2% | +45.8% | +34.3% |
| Dutch TTF | 71.95 | +7.4% +4.97 |
+155.5% | +117.6% | +33.5% |
| Corn | 537 | +4.8% +25 |
+21.9% | +33.2% | +8.3% |
| Nat Gas | 2.975 | +3.0% +0.087 |
-19.3% | -3.7% | -34.9% |
| Soybeans | 1,310 | +2.6% +34 |
+27.1% | +29.2% | +3.2% |
| Copper | 14,732 | +1.8% +266 |
+18.7% | +48.8% | +56.2% |
| Gold | 4,477 | -0.0% -2 |
+3.5% | +23.0% | +149.3% |
| Silver | 66.75 | -0.4% -0.25 |
-4.8% | +61.1% | +174.3% |
| Cocoa | 6,175 | -5.4% -352 |
+1.8% | -13.4% | +124.3% |
Commodity Research
The week's most interesting commodity research.
The Next Commodity Shock May Begin in the Pacific · Barclays · Aug 31
Super El Niño will drive sharp price gains in agriculture then metals and power. Read →
• Palm oil drought hits SE Asia supply, +30 to 40% in 18m
• Rubber similar weather hit, +30 to 40% in 18m
• Copper power shortages lift costs, +20% in 18m
Global oil supply short-term update, September 2026 · WoodMac · Sep 2
Middle East standoff persists; 2026 supply downgraded, recovery delayed to 2027. Read →
• Gulf output sustained stand-off through year-end
• Transit normal flows only from Jan 2027
• US blockades eased same timing as rapprochement
Oil Market Report, August 2026 · IEA · Aug 15
Hormuz closure deepens 2026 deficit; demand and supply both cut sharply. Read →
• Demand -1.6 mb/d in 2026, worse than prior
• Supply -4.3 mb/d in 2026 vs last year
• Inventories sharp July drop, 3Q deficit doubles
What's next for commodities? · UBS · Aug 28
Broad commodity exposure still warranted despite Middle East volatility. Read →
• Industrial metals AI/electrification demand holds
• Energy shipping disruptions keep prices sensitive
• Agriculture El Niño and fertilizer risks tighten
Commodities Midyear Outlook 2026 · Morgan Stanley · Sep 5
Supply constraints and resilient demand keep the commodity cycle intact. Read →
• Energy Hormuz and refinery issues sustain tightness
• Base metals electrification and grid needs outpace
• Agriculture El Niño and fertilizer add upside risk
Commodities | Capital Economics · Capital Economics · Sep 4
Energy prices stay elevated longer; path back to glut slower than priced. Read →
• Oil recovery delayed, new higher forecasts
• Gold still no bottom, further downside ahead
• El Niño additional supply shock risk for ags and power
J.P. Morgan Mid-Year Outlook commodities section · JPMorgan · Sep 4
Oil prices revised lower on weak inventory draws; copper stays bullish on US-China tug-of-war. Read →
• Brent $86 3Q26, $80 4Q26, $78 YE
• Copper ex-US market tight, tariff review supports
• Gold structural demand intact but Fed pause delays
Position for a commodity upcycle · UBS · Aug 25
Long-term forces converge to support broad commodity exposure. Read →
• Gold central banks and debt concerns structural
• Energy geopolitical risks keep sensitivity high
• Industrial metals underinvestment meets AI/power demand
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
|
A Song of Fire and Maybe Ice: Natural Gas in 2026 with Emily Kyne · HC Commodities · Sep 1
US natural gas supply has reached 112 to 113 BCF/day, up from 100 BCF/day in 2022, largely via LNG expansions. Listen →
• Northeast Appalachia produces 36 to 37 BCF/day, Permian
• Most Permian growth is associated gas from oil economics
• Producers choke back output when netbacks fall below
MacroVoices #548 Dr. Carly Anderson: Emerging Energy Technologies Roundup · MacroVoices · Sep 3
Hyperscalers signing 20-year PPAs at $100/MWh have created conditions for a nuclear renaissance that did not exist a couple of years ago. Listen →
• About 80 reactors under construction globally, 60
• China doubling installed nuclear capacity in next five
• SMRs and mass manufacturing key to accelerating the
Why Laser Beams Are the Hottest New Tech in Defense · Odd Lots · Sep 4
A 50 kW laser can knock down a drone; scaling to 1 MW enables engaging hypersonic weapons at Mach 3 to 5. Listen →
• Lasers act as precision single-target weapons
• Cost per shot is pennies versus millions for
• Supply chain constraints and power generation remain
Venezuela vs Diesel: Global Oil Update 31st August 2026 · Sankey Research · Aug 31
Diesel at $5.50/gallon at the US pump is the colossal problem while crude at $90 reflects risk but not insanity. Listen →
• Refining capacity shortage is the big global issue
• Venezuela deal is largely a sideshow for oil markets
• Russia-Ukraine conflict compounds diesel supply
Naphtha's post-Hormuz reality: tight supply, wide arbs and a bullish gasoline pull · Platts Oil Markets · Sep 4
Middle East export disruptions and soaring gasoline demand have driven multiyear highs in naphtha blending demand. Listen →
• East-West arbitrage has widened significantly
• Propane gaining advantage over naphtha at steam crackers
• Rhine logistics issues disrupting Europe's
Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades · Odd Lots · Sep 1
Tomato prices hit $2.69/lb in April, highest in four decades, driven by supply chain and trade shifts. Listen →
• Cauliflower, lettuce and other produce also spiking
• US tomato supply heavily reliant on specific regions
• Restaurants navigating sharp price fluctuations with
Commodity Intelligence
Split 2-1 positive on oil; Claude flipped bullish on copper this week.
The same questions to three frontier AIs, every week. Unedited verdicts · opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Where the panel stands
| Oil | ▲ Up | 2 of 3 AIs | Up 3rd straight week |
| Copper | ▲ Up | all 3 AIs | Up 6th straight week |
| US Nat Gas | ▼ Down | 2 of 3 AIs | Down 6th straight week |
| Gold | ▲ Up | all 3 AIs | Up unanimous 6 weeks |
Why they disagree on oil
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI
▲ Up Hormuz disruptions + inventory draws tighten supply
Gemini · Google
▲ Up Geopolitical tensions persist, OPEC+ maintains supply discipline, and global demand remains robust. Inventory draws loom.
Claude · Anthropic
▼ Down Slowing global demand, OPEC+ supply creep, and recession fears outweigh geopolitical risk premium.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated from public sources; every item links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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