Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Aug 8, 2026
▶ The 2-minute market brief · 1.25x
Downey's Take
Sugar up $1.83 (+12.5%) on India monsoon rainfall forecast to be below normal and global 2026/27 deficit projections.
Silver up $5.91 (+10.3%) on weak US July payrolls cutting Fed rate-hike odds and softening the dollar.
Gold up $351 (+8.7%) on weak US July payrolls cutting Fed rate-hike odds and softening the dollar.
Cocoa up $450 (+8.3%) on West Africa supply concerns and shipping disruption fears.
Palladium up $103 (+8.1%) on broad precious metals gains amid easing geopolitical risks and softer dollar.
Crude down $6.49 (-7.5%) on progress toward Iran-Oman deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz easing supply fears.
Kicker: Macquarie recommends long Oct26 WTI crude vs short Dec26 on post-Hormuz reopening inventory rebuild.
Silver up $5.91 (+10.3%) on weak US July payrolls cutting Fed rate-hike odds and softening the dollar.
Gold up $351 (+8.7%) on weak US July payrolls cutting Fed rate-hike odds and softening the dollar.
Cocoa up $450 (+8.3%) on West Africa supply concerns and shipping disruption fears.
Palladium up $103 (+8.1%) on broad precious metals gains amid easing geopolitical risks and softer dollar.
Crude down $6.49 (-7.5%) on progress toward Iran-Oman deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz easing supply fears.
Kicker: Macquarie recommends long Oct26 WTI crude vs short Dec26 on post-Hormuz reopening inventory rebuild.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
CPC loadings fell over 20 percent in July after repeated drone attacks on tankers at the Black Sea terminal.
The angle · Kazakh and Russian export barrels face delayed offtake with storage at the terminal hitting capacity limits.
Hormuz tensions and Qatari LNG tanker incidents kept European TTF gas above 55 euros per MWh.
The angle · LNG diversion from Asia to Europe tightens Atlantic basin balances while US Henry Hub stays below 2.70 dollars amid record storage.
Copper futures hit fresh record highs above 6.70 dollars per pound on DRC export ban and Chilean mine risks.
The angle · Speculative length builds against visible inventory draw while smelters face feedstock constraints from policy shifts.
Baltic Dry Index climbed to a two-month high near 3,063 points with capesize rates leading the gains.
The angle · Iron ore and coal fixture activity supports larger vessel utilization but panamax and supramax remain mixed on grain volumes.
EIA reported a 33 Bcf US storage injection for the week ending July 31 exceeding the 31 Bcf forecast.
The angle · Surplus versus five-year average widens to 195 Bcf pressuring prompt Henry Hub while LNG feedgas demand provides limited offset.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These charts show live oil and natural gas pricing from Hyperliquid's 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
WTI Crude · live weekend pricing
$77.27 ▼ -0.91 -1.16%
vs Friday, August 7, 2026 NYMEX WTI Crude close $78.18
Nat Gas · live weekend pricing
$2.66 ▲ +0.00 +0.11%
vs Friday, August 7, 2026 NYMEX Nat Gas close $2.66
The week's moves
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, August 7, 2026
| Market | Last | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver | 63.50 | +10.3% +5.91 |
-9.5% |
| Gold | 4,352 | +8.7% +351 |
+1.7% |
| Cocoa | 5,847 | +8.3% +450 |
-3.6% |
| Corn | 462 | +4.7% +21 |
+4.8% |
| Copper | 6.59 | +2.4% +0.16 |
+17.1% |
| Soybeans | 1,176 | +0.4% +4 |
+14.1% |
| Nat Gas | 2.662 | -3.1% -0.085 |
-27.8% |
| Dutch TTF | 55.54 | -6.0% -3.53 |
+97.2% |
| Brent | 83.55 | -7.3% -6.57 |
+37.3% |
| WTI Crude | 78.18 | -7.7% -6.49 |
+36.2% |
Research
Oil Prices Forecast: What’s next for oil in 2026 and beyond?
J.P. Morgan · Thu, Jul 16, 2026
J.P. Morgan updates its oil price outlook following geopolitical disruptions and rebalancing. It now forecasts Brent at $86/bbl in Q3 2026, $80 in Q4, and $78 at year-end, with a surplus emerging as early as August due to stronger non-Middle East supply response and larger-than-expected demand losses, particularly in China via EV adoption and efficiency gains. Long-term, prices are seen reverting toward a $60/bbl regime in H2 2027 amid minimal lasting production damage but potential OPEC coordination challenges. Read →
Global Commodities: Miraculous recovery
J.P. Morgan · Fri, Aug 7, 2026
In this podcast, J.P. Morgan's Head of Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva discusses the oil market's rebalancing after major supply disruptions. Key factors include a positive supply response outside the Middle East, alongside inventory and demand dynamics, enabling a 'miraculous recovery' despite earlier shocks. Read →
Daily: Gold’s rally has support
UBS · Thu, Aug 6, 2026
UBS CIO notes gold breaking above $4,250/oz on Chinese institutional buying, ETF inflows, and yen stabilization efforts. While near-term risks persist from firm US data, oil-driven inflation, and potential hawkish Fed pricing, the medium-term case remains supported by expectations of lower real rates, a softer dollar, and sustained central bank purchases (750-1,000 metric tons annually), targeting $5,000/oz in H1 2027. Read →
Oil Market Report, August 2026
IEA · Wed, Aug 12, 2026
The IEA's monthly Oil Market Report provides official OECD and selected non-OECD statistics, historical data, and supply-demand forecasts. The August edition includes the Annual Statistical Supplement 2026 and will detail the latest global oil market balances amid ongoing volatility. Read →
Monthly Oil Market Report
OPEC · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
OPEC releases its monthly assessment of global oil supply, demand, and market fundamentals, incorporating recent JMMC reviews of production conformity and updates on the OPEC Reference Basket. Read →
Podcasts
|
Javier Blas on Lessons from Closing Hormuz (So Far)
Columbia Energy Exchange · Mon, Aug 4, 2026
Bloomberg opinion columnist Javier Blas discusses the massive energy supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closures amid the Iran conflict, including impacts on refining margins, coal demand, shipping, and why oil prices have not spiked as dramatically as expected despite the disruption. Listen →
The Coming El Niño with Michael Ferrari
HC Commodities Podcast (host Paul Chapman) · Aug 5, 2026 (3d ago as of Aug 8)
Discussion of the emerging strong El Niño climate pattern and its potential profound effects on global economies and commodities, exacerbated by ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Listen →
The Tungsten Market Is Warning of an Upcoming War
Bloomberg Odd Lots · Mon, Aug 3, 2026 or Tue, Aug 4, 2026
Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling explains how tungsten mining acts as a historical 'prediction market' for conflicts due to its critical role in war manufacturing, highlighting current market signals amid global tensions. Listen →
Asian refined products markets in focus as Strait of Hormuz uncertainty returns
S&P Global / Platts Oil Markets · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
S&P Global experts analyze how renewed Hormuz tensions affect Asian gasoline, gasoil, jet fuel, and naphtha markets, including supply security, freight costs, export flows, and trading adaptations in a volatile environment. Listen →
The Oil Market’s Billion-Barrel Problem
Morgan Stanley Thoughts on the Market (feat. Martijn Rats, H · Wed, Jul 29, 2026
Martijn Rats and Andrew Sheets examine oil market volatility, inventory dynamics (the 'billion-barrel problem'), supply shocks from Middle East tensions, and implications for pump prices and energy markets beyond geopolitics. Listen →
Real-Ekonomik: The Iran War's Longevity with Nick Kumleben
HC Commodities Podcast (host Paul Chapman) · Jul 29, 2026 (6d ago as of early Aug)
Geopolitical analyst Nick Kumleben explores how economic factors ('Real-Ekonomik') influence the Iran-US conflict trajectory, strategies of participants, and commodity/energy implications. Listen →
Ask an AI
Split 2-1 negative on oil.
We asked three frontier models the same questions. Unedited verdicts · AI opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Dots show each model's weekly call over time · ● Up ● Down · the last dot is this week.
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI
▼ Down Post-conflict supply rebound + demand drop = surplus by Q4.
Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week) · ●●●
Gemini · Google
▲ Up Geopolitical tensions, disciplined OPEC+ cuts, and robust summer demand will tighten supply, pushing prices higher despite economic headwinds.
Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week) · ●●●
Claude · Anthropic
▼ Down Demand fears from slowing China growth and rising OPEC+ supply outweigh geopolitical risk premiums.
Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week) · ●●●
And the next 20% move?
| Market | Grok | Gemini | Claude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | ▲ Up ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● |
| US Nat Gas | ▼ Down ●●● | ▼ Down ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● |
| Gold | ▲ Up ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● |
Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week)
Was this forwarded to you?
Get the whole commodity tape in your own inbox every morning, free.
Subscribe free →
Already subscribed? Share it with your desk →
Hedge smarter, not harder.
Brought to you by BoxWood · The AI-powered programmatic hedge booking system for commodity producers, consumers, refiners, hedge funds, and trading houses. See a live demo →
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated from public sources; every item links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe