Agriculture

Private estimates raised U.S. corn yields, pressuring futures alongside improving weather forecasts. Corn and soybeans tested support as traders removed weather premium from recent rains in the western Corn Belt. Wheat showed relative strength on export concerns elsewhere. Read →

StoneX customer survey pegged 2026 U.S. corn yield at 184.8 bushels per acre for 16.16 billion bushels total, above USDA's 183.0. Soybean yield came in at 53.0 bushels per acre for 4.47 billion bushels. These private figures above official estimates contribute to bearish sentiment in grain markets ahead of the August WASDE. Read →

November soybeans fell over 9 cents to near three-week lows as widespread rains hit the central and eastern Corn Belt. December corn dropped 6.25 cents overnight to $4.5925 per bushel amid private estimates of 16.16 billion bushels production at 184.8 bushels per acre yield, above USDA figures. Timely moisture supports pod-setting and yield potential, weighing on prices ahead of next week's USDA reports. Read →

USSEC's flagship Soy Connext conference opened in Chicago with record attendance exceeding 800. The event highlights how diversification beyond China is boosting U.S. soybean exports, with recent flash sales to China totaling 884,000 metric tons since late July. Normalizing trade relations and new markets are expected to drive full-year purchases toward the 25 million metric ton target. Read →

Brazil's Mato Grosso state advanced its 2025-26 winter corn harvest to 90.7% of sown area, up 11.7 points week-over-week and slightly ahead of last year. Production is projected at 57.1 million metric tons, 3% above the prior season, with yields at 128.64 bags per hectare. Cotton harvest in the state reached 13.1% of area, ahead of last year but below the five-year average. Read →

Ukraine's agriculture minister said alternative routes via Danube, rail and road will reach stable capacity only by end-August and handle at most 50-55% of Black Sea volumes. No vessels entered Odesa ports for nearly two weeks amid intensified Russian strikes; direct sector losses could hit $1.5-3 billion. The disruption threatens half of this year's grain and oilseeds exports from a country supplying 6% of global wheat and 11% of corn. Read →

Nationwide corn good-to-excellent ratings fell two points to 61% as of Aug. 2, with very poor-to-poor rising to 14%. Soybean ratings held at 63% good-excellent. Corn silking reached 90% and denting hit 6% for the first time this season, both ahead of averages, while winter wheat harvest stood at 86% complete. Read →

Corn good-to-excellent dropped to 61% from 63% prior week and 73% last year. Soybeans held at 63% good-excellent versus 69% a year ago. Progress advanced ahead of five-year averages with 90% corn silking, 88% soybean blooming and 62% pod-setting. Read →

Kansas production is projected at 196 million bushels, down 43.4% and one of the smallest since 1963's 185 million. Drought and 20-80% abandonment hit southwest areas hardest, though some northeast zones produced average yields. USDA's latest outlook aligns with the reduced figure. Read →

Private exporters reported 488,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China and 136,150 MT to unknown destinations for the 2026-27 marketing year beginning September 1. The flash sales signal renewed Chinese buying interest ahead of the new crop season. Strong export commitments support soybean prices by tightening available supply for the upcoming marketing year. Read →

Private exporters announced 17.9 million bushels of soybeans to China and 5.0 million bushels to unknown destinations for 2026-27 delivery. The large new-crop sales add to prior commitments and underscore export demand strength. Markets watch for follow-through buying that could lift futures. Read →

Cocoa prices jumped 10.04% to 5,939 USD per metric ton. The sharp single-day gain reflects short-term market dynamics in the softs complex. Elevated volatility keeps cocoa in focus alongside grains and oilseeds. Read →

The latest USDA Crop Progress report tracks corn, soybean, wheat and other crop conditions and development stages across major states. Ratings and progress data inform yield expectations heading into peak summer weather. Traders monitor any shifts in good-to-excellent percentages for price signals. Read →

Weekly USDA export data showed new-crop corn sales at 1.06 million tons and soybeans at 1.33 million tons, both beating expectations. A 132,000-ton flash sale to China added to the soybean tally. Overseas conflicts and domestic weather concerns weighed on prices despite the demand figures. Read →

Corn and soybeans finished modestly lower while wheat held small gains. Cooler and wetter Corn Belt forecast pressured prices after early advances from Black Sea news. Solid weekly export sales and a China bean sale provided demand support. Read →

Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China in the 2026/2027 marketing year. This marks renewed Chinese buying interest in U.S. soybeans. The sale adds to positive export demand signals for the new crop. Read →

Ukraine attacked the Port of Taman on the Kerch Strait overnight. The strike targets a key Russian grain export gateway. Escalating Black Sea attacks between Russia and Ukraine threaten grain export capacity and support wheat prices. Read →

Cotton traded a little lower yesterday on a stronger U.S. dollar. Forecasts show scattered showers in Delta and Southeast cotton areas. Temperatures remain warm to hot across the belt. Read →

Three major Russian Black Sea grain terminals restricted truck deliveries amid heightened shipping risks from attacks on vessels and ports. Chicago wheat rose 0.3% while soybeans fell 1% and corn dropped 0.5% as favorable US Midwest weather weighed on the latter two. Disruptions reinforce supply concerns for global wheat trade. Read →

USDA weekly crop progress report showed corn good-to-excellent ratings at 63%, down from 67% prior week, and soybeans also at 63%, down from 66%. Both fell below analyst expectations amid ongoing heat across the Midwest. The data supports price support for corn while pressuring soybeans on improved weather outlook. Read →

China imported 12.1 million metric tons of Brazilian soybeans in June, up 14% year-over-year, while US soybean imports plunged 21% to 1.27 million tons. Overnight soybean futures fell over 13 cents to $12.06-3/4 per bushel on the shift. Corn and wheat futures also declined amid the demand redirection. Read →

Private exporters reported sales of 197,272 metric tons of corn for 2026/2027 delivery to unknown destinations. The report also noted prior soybean sales activity to China and unknown buyers. These export sales announcements highlight ongoing US grain demand outside traditional channels. Read →

Indiana corn condition rated 63% good-to-excellent with 74% silking; soybeans at 63% good-to-excellent with 41% setting pods. Topsoil moisture was mostly adequate. The state data aligns with national trends of advancing development amid variable conditions. Read →

USDA's July 27 Crop Progress report showed corn silking at 78% and soybeans blooming at 80%, both ahead of averages, but good-to-excellent ratings fell 4 points for corn to 63% and 3 points for soybeans to 63% amid heat. Winter wheat harvest reached 81%, slightly ahead of the five-year average. Declining ratings signal potential yield pressure for 2026 crops. Read →

Hot conditions across the central U.S. cut corn good-to-excellent ratings 4 points to 63% and soybeans 3 points to 63% for the week ended July 26. Corn reached 78% silking and 25% dough stage; soybeans hit 47% pod setting, both ahead of averages. Winter wheat harvest advanced to 82%. Read →

Private exporters reported to USDA sales of 4.9 million bushels of soybeans to China and 4.6 million bushels to unknown destinations for 2026-27 delivery. Sales support new-crop demand amid China trade commitments. The 2026-27 marketing year begins September 1. Read →

Corn, soybeans and winter wheat futures fell sharply Monday with double-digit losses as traders sold into the heat-driven rally. Prices ignored worsening crop conditions and focused on profit-taking after recent gains. Energy markets also weakened. Read →

The report notes corn conditions at 67% good-to-excellent, down slightly from prior week but below last year. Soybean ratings improved to 66% good-to-excellent. Progress supports expectations for solid U.S. corn and soy harvests amid ongoing weather monitoring. Read →

June USDA data lifted 2026 U.S. soybean planted acres estimate. Combined with strong condition ratings, this points to potential record production levels. Higher acreage supports ample supply outlook for the new-crop marketing year. Read →

Unusual rain and sunshine patterns caused coffee cherries in Karnataka's Chikkamagaluru district to ripen nearly three months ahead of schedule. Growers express concern over potential quality and harvest timing impacts. Early ripening highlights weather risks for India's key coffee producing region. Read →

Wheat Quality Council scouts projected 46.0 bushels per acre for southern North Dakota hard red spring wheat after Tuesday surveys. The figure is below last year’s 50.0 bpa but above the five-year average of 45.8 bpa. Intense heat since July 11 has stressed fields and lowered yield potential versus USDA’s July 10 forecast of 58.0 bpa. Read →

Russian and Ukrainian strikes damaged ports, terminals and vessels, cutting roughly one-third of Ukraine’s Black Sea grain export capacity. Spot corn trade in Ukraine has stalled with 30-40% of scheduled voyages cancelled. Romanian and Bulgarian origins command $25/tonne premiums as buyers seek reliable shipments. Read →

Wheat led gains to new contract highs as Black Sea port attacks and logistics halts by Russia-Ukraine conflict threaten exports. Hot, dry forecasts in the US Northern Plains and Corn Belt add weather premium to corn and soybeans. China buying interest and crude oil strength lift soybean oil and overall complex. Read →

Soybeans rose on fund buying and China demand watch ahead of USDA sales data, with hot weather raising yield concerns. Corn gained on similar weather risks and Brazil second-crop harvest watch. Wheat jumped on Black Sea export slowdowns and lower spring wheat tour yields. Read →

Citi kept its bullish sugar stance with 17-cent three-month target amid tight supply views. It turned bearish on coffee and neutral on cocoa as price action signals differentiated trends post-volatility. Read →

Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the plan to boost US cotton profitability, expand domestic use via Plant Not Plastic, and raise marketing loan rates. It targets fifth straight year of negative returns for producers through higher price protection and trade promotion. Read →

USDA lowered 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.79 billion bushels from 1.96 billion previously, citing higher feed use in the prior year and increased exports. New-crop wheat ending stocks fell 22 million bushels to 722 million. Soybean stocks were left unchanged at 310 million bushels. The tighter corn balance sheet supports prices amid ongoing export demand. Read →

The official July 2026 WASDE report cut U.S. corn ending stocks 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion bushels for 2026/27 after raising exports and trimming beginning stocks. Wheat production forecast fell, pushing ending stocks down 22 million bushels to 722 million. Soybean ending stocks held steady at 310 million bushels with higher exports offsetting supply gains. Read →

Private exporters reported three large soybean sales to USDA for 2026-27 delivery: 12.5 million bushels to China, 9.4 million bushels to Mexico, and 4 million bushels to unknown destinations. The announcements fueled overnight buying in soybean futures. Strong export demand tightens new-crop supply expectations ahead of harvest. Read →

As of July 19, 59% of corn was silking and 13% had reached the dough stage, slightly ahead of average. Soybeans hit 32% pod-setting, also ahead of the five-year pace. Corn good-to-excellent ratings slipped to 67% from 68% the prior week. Read →

December corn futures rose 7.75 cents to $4.7525 overnight, nearing a seven-week high on forecasts of persistent Midwest heat through pollination. Escalating Russia-Ukraine Black Sea strikes added export-risk premium. Soybeans also climbed toward two-year highs on the same drivers. Read →

Three flash soybean sales including one to China lifted September futures 8.25 cents to $11.9350. Winter wheat rose 1-2% and corn 0.75% on spillover from Brent crude above $87 per barrel amid Middle East tensions. Light rains forecast for the central U.S. provided limited weather support. Read →

Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari stated the policy focuses on value addition and local processing without banning raw bean exports. The clarification followed President Tinubu's comments at the Cocoa Value Addition Summit promoting domestic industry growth. Raw exports will continue while investments target processing capacity and farmer incomes. Read →

Minister Abubakar Kyari confirmed raw cocoa exports remain key as processing capacity expands under the Renewed Hope Agenda. The statement rejected earlier interpretations of a full ban following Tinubu's summit remarks. Policy aims to boost earnings through traceability and premium market access. Read →

Old crop soybean export sales hit a marketing year low of 5.2 million bushels while corn reached 53.6 million. Markets monitor Middle East crude developments and U.S. planting weather alongside Argentina harvest. Wheat sales totaled 2.9 million old crop bushels mainly to Vietnam and Thailand. Read →

USDA reported 1.77 million metric tons of 2026/27 soybean sales for the week ending July 9, led by 1.056 million tons to China and 624,600 tons to unknown destinations. Old-crop soybean sales reached 188,300 tons. Strong China demand supports U.S. export flows amid competitive pricing versus Brazil. Read →

Escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted Black Sea wheat shipments after Ukraine struck over 100 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, prompting Russia to close the Kerch Strait. Wheat futures surged more than 30 cents amid concerns over Russia's export capacity. Tighter global supplies amplify the impact. Read →

The report details U.S. export sales activity for the week ending July 9 across grains, oilseeds, cotton and livestock. New-crop soybean sales stood out while old-crop corn and cotton hit marketing-year lows. Data informs near-term export flow expectations. Read →

Cotton futures advanced on reports of flooding rains in Texas from a tropical system. Coffee and cocoa showed mixed moves with harvest delays noted in Brazil and Vietnam. Weather developments directly affect U.S. cotton supply prospects. Read →

Wheat futures rose 30-35 cents early Wednesday as escalated attacks threaten Black Sea shipping lanes, with Russia’s July wheat exports projected down 13-20%. The risk premium spills over to corn and soybeans via technical buying and spillover strength. Disruptions to the world’s top wheat exporter tighten global supplies and support U.S. export prospects. Read →

Wheat futures jumped on speculative buying after IKAR and SovEcon cut Russia’s July exports to 2 million tons due to shipping slowdowns from the Ukraine conflict. Hot, dry weather threatens U.S. spring wheat and Western European crops, while France’s AgriMer lowered 2026 soft wheat output 4%. Reduced Russian flows could shift demand toward U.S. wheat. Read →

Wheat led gains on rising Black Sea export concerns from geopolitical tensions, while corn and soybeans paused awaiting clearer weather signals. Analysts note row crops await decisive weather developments before committing to direction. The wheat move highlights export flow risks that could indirectly support U.S. grains. Read →

Speculators became net sellers of Chicago corn and soybeans for the first time in nearly two months. Position unwinds remove a key support layer for the grains complex. The shift follows recent price volatility and precedes further weather and export developments. Read →

Russia restricted shipping through the Kerch Strait and Azov-Don channel after Ukrainian drone strikes hit multiple vessels, including grain ships, in the Sea of Azov. The route handles about a quarter of Russian wheat exports as the world's top exporter. The agriculture ministry said cargoes may reroute via Black Sea or Baltic ports to meet obligations. Read →

September Kansas City wheat closed up 11.75 cents as analysts cited closure of the Kerch Strait and Azov-Don channel, typically 25-30% of Russian wheat exports. December corn fell 2.75 cents and November soybeans 3.75 cents on easing US heat concerns. The move built on last week's USDA data showing tight US wheat supplies. Read →

September Arabica coffee futures traded in a 29.55-cent range and ended with minimal net change after rallying toward prior highs then fading. Robusta September settled up $15 at 3,849 amid BRL strength and 118 lots of certified stock cancellation. Markets remain unsettled following recent sharp moves. Read →

September cocoa futures rose 0.62% to $5,806 per metric ton. December cotton #2 settled at 80.56 cents per pound, up 0.38%. No major new drivers reported for either soft commodity in the session. Read →

USDA's July 2026 WASDE report cut 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks more than trade expectations. Soybean stocks also fell below forecasts while wheat came in slightly above. Tighter balances support prices across grains. Read →

Maharashtra ex-mill sugar prices hit ₹41.5/kg while Kolhapur tenders reached ₹4,120/quintal. Weak monsoon and ongoing export ban tightened domestic supply. Higher prices reflect seasonal demand strength. Read →

India's edible oil imports fell 30% in June with soybean oil and palm shipments declining sharply. Overall volumes dropped to about 1.1 million tonnes. Lower imports ease pressure on global soybean and palm markets. Read →

USDA lowered 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion on higher old-crop feed use and increased exports. Soybean production rose 40 million bushels to a record 4.475 billion on added harvested acres while ending stocks held at 310 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks fell 22 million bushels to 722 million bushels. Tighter corn carryout supports prices ahead of pollination weather. Read →

USDA reduced 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion bushels, exceeding trade expectations, while raising exports. Soybean production increased to a record 4.475 billion bushels with ending stocks unchanged. Global corn stocks also declined. Lower stocks tighten the balance sheet and add support to corn prices. Read →

Private exporters reported 264,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China for 2026/27 delivery. Additional soybean sales to China were announced on July 9 and July 8. The sales signal continued Chinese buying interest in U.S. soybeans. Read →

Ethiopia crossed $3 billion in coffee export earnings for the first time, driven by post-production capacity tripling in five years. The milestone highlights growth in African agricultural exports and potential for further value-added processing. Read →