Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Oct 31, 2026
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Downey's Take on the Past Week
Brent settled at $113.43, down $3.29 (-2.8%), while WTI settled at $104.12, up $0.85 (+0.8%), the latter lifted by a surprise U.S. crude inventory draw. A tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz on October 30 came after the settle.
Propane up $0.223 (+21.0%) on strong U.S. export demand and inventory draws.
N-Butane up $0.310 (+18.0%) on domestic gasoline blending demand and tighter supply.
Ethane up $0.034 (+11.3%) on U.S. export capacity expansion and new cracker demand.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $10.09 (+10.8%) on Middle East LNG supply disruptions and low European storage.
Isobutane up $0.197 (+10.6%) on tight supply, high downstream dehydrogenation demand and crude strength.
Propane up $0.223 (+21.0%) on strong U.S. export demand and inventory draws.
N-Butane up $0.310 (+18.0%) on domestic gasoline blending demand and tighter supply.
Ethane up $0.034 (+11.3%) on U.S. export capacity expansion and new cracker demand.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $10.09 (+10.8%) on Middle East LNG supply disruptions and low European storage.
Isobutane up $0.197 (+10.6%) on tight supply, high downstream dehydrogenation demand and crude strength.
Drivers are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Hormuz tanker flows recovered toward pre-war levels in spots but averaged well below baseline amid attacks and workarounds.
The angle · Dubai deeper contango against Brent; normalization lengthens Asian balances while Cushing stays tight.
TTF front-month hit four-year highs near EUR 97/MWh on restricted Qatari LNG flows and EU storage at 74 percent.
The angle · Long TTF winter-summer calendar spread; low inventories and longer Cape reroutes should steepen the curve.
LME copper stocks surged over 20 percent in a week to above 270,000 tonnes on heavy US inflows after tariff bets faded.
The angle · LME cash-three-month backwardation should narrow; deliverable metal pressure eases near-term squeezes.
Black Sea grain export risk premium deflated on Russia-Turkey shipping safety talks despite no revived grain deal.
The angle · Matif over Chicago wheat; eased Black Sea outage bids European origin against ample US supply.
Brent climbed to six-month highs above $116 on Houthi Saudi strikes and Hormuz risks before partial diplomacy pullback.
The angle · Front Brent outright long against deferred; Middle East supply risk should keep nearby structure supported.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These are live oil and natural gas prices from On Chain 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
|
WTI Crude · weekend
$103.03
-1.09 -1.05%
vs Fri close $104.12
|
Nat Gas · weekend
$2.88
-0.02 -0.63%
vs Fri close $2.90
|
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, October 30, 2026
Charts: grey is the prior week, color is this week.
Dots under the energy markets and copper: the shape of the curve at Friday’s close. WTI, Brent and Nat Gas run cash to 1st to 2nd month, cash from Prism; Dutch TTF and copper run their first three contracts.
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF backwardation |
103.94 | +10.8% +10.09 |
+269% | +227% | +58.4% |
| Nat Gas contango |
2.898 | +9.8% +0.258 |
-21.4% | -32.1% | -44.1% |
| WTI Crude backwardation |
104.12 | +0.8% +0.85 |
+81.3% | +70.5% | +23.9% |
| Copper contango |
14,290 | +0.1% +13 |
+15.1% | +28.4% | +47.3% |
| Soybeans |
1,234 | -1.8% -22 |
+19.8% | +10.2% | -0.2% |
| Corn |
448 | -1.8% -8 |
+1.7% | +3.1% | -22.7% |
| Gold |
3,899 | -2.7% -109 |
-10.2% | -2.9% | +117% |
| Brent backwardation |
113.43 | -2.8% -3.29 |
+86.4% | +74.8% | +33.9% |
| Wheat |
604 | -3.4% -22 |
+19.0% | +11.0% | -24.3% |
| Silver |
49.28 | -8.3% -4.43 |
-29.7% | +2.9% | +105% |
Dutch TTF led the week. Start with NatGas 101.
Macro this week
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Fut |
7,614 | -0.6% -46 |
+10.5% | +10.6% | +65.3% |
| Dollar Index |
101.96 | +0.2% +0.15 |
+3.7% | +2.1% | +8.6% |
| EUR/USD |
1.1166 | -0.5% -0.0055 |
-4.9% | -3.1% | -3.4% |
| US 10Y Yield |
4.929 | -5.9bp | +77bp | +82bp | +335bp |
Tanker freight this week
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.41M | +4.5% | +992% | 234.9 | 32.05 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$418k | -2.7% | +495% | 118.3 | 16.14 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$230k | +9.8% | +262% | 133.8 | 18.25 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$304k | -7.7% | +781% | 199.9 | 26.83 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$223k | -8.9% | +758% | 211.1 | 23.72 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$85k | +36.7% | +178% | 114.8 | 13.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -3.5% | +278% | 104.8 | 14.07 |
Report of Oct 29, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
Forward curves
The heavy line: months 1 to 24 at Friday’s settlement Fri Oct 30. Amber: the same contracts a week earlier. Dotted: a month earlier. Dashed: months 1 to 24 as they stood a year earlier. Refinery cracks in $/bbl from the NYMEX curves.
WTI $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Dec 26 $104.12, up $0.85 on the week; Nov 28 $74.30. A year ago the front (Dec 25) was $60.98.
Brent $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Jan 27 $113.43, up $1.73 on the week; Dec 28 $78.96. A year ago the front (Dec 25) was $65.00.
3-2-1 crack $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Dec 26 $49.73, down $1.62 on the week; Oct 28 $34.43. A year ago the front (Nov 25) was $28.86.
Henry Hub $/MMBtu
Contango. Front Dec 26 $2.898, down $0.152 on the week; Nov 28 $3.715. A year ago the front (Dec 25) was $4.124.
The diesel and gasoline cracks, copper and propane: all eight curves.
Charts of the week
The chart posts picked for the week's letters and one for Saturday. Tap one to see the chart.
MonHormuz crude transits Oct 17-23via @LVision_Trading on XTable and map of Hormuz crude flows at 8-9mbd average, down to 75-80% pre-war with Saudi and Red Sea breakdowns
TueEurope gas storage vs Asia LNG prices Oct 2026via @ekwufinance on XChart comparing Europe's low storage levels entering winter with Asia's surging LNG spot prices, highlighting US flexible LNG exports and potential 2022-style price spike
WedGlobal Seaborne Refined Products Exports 2026 vs Medianvia @CRUDEOIL231 on XLine charts show sharp YoY drops in diesel, gasoline, jet and naphtha exports with latest levels 11-31% below median, highlighting acute refined product shortages
ThuOil vol breakevens Oct 27 2026via @CRUDEOIL231 on XSourced chart of implied vs realised vol breakevens and risk metrics for Brent/WTI showing cheap vol relative to realised moves, key for daily oil letter positioning
FriADNOC WEP pipeline map Oct 28via @LSREnergy on XMap and capacity details of new 48-inch ADNOC pipeline from Jebel Dhanna to Fujairah, 1.5 MBPD
SatBP Q3: highest profit in 18 yearsvia @JavierBlas on X · 314 likesBP Q3 earnings screenshot highlights highest profit in 18 years driven by sky-high refining margins and sharp debt reduction
The Week Ahead
Scheduled events next week that could move commodities.
Thu Nov 5 |
Bank of England MPC decision and MPR 12:00pm GMT
rate decision and inflation projections could shift sterling and energy demand outlook |
Fri Nov 6 |
US Employment Situation October 8:30am ET
payrolls and unemployment data influence Fed rate path and dollar strength |
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Commodity Research
The week's most interesting commodity research.
Commodity prices surge 23% in 2026
World Bank · Oct 28 · Read →
Shocks from Middle East conflict and El Niño drive 23% commodity price rise in 2026 before 7% drop in 2027.
Energy prices up 32% as oil supply falls 5.2%
Metals index hits record high, copper to $13,200/t
Food prices up 10% on Black Sea, El Niño hits
Fertilizer urea surge lifts index 14%
Oil prices surge on Middle East risks
Goldman · Oct 23 · Read →
Brent risks skewed higher to $120+ if shipping attacks intensify despite supply rebound.
Brent base case $90 end-2026, $80 avg 2027
Refined diesel/gas exports at 40% of prior levels
Copper another 10% upside to $15,600 by end-2027
Oil to $60 by year-end; metals broaden
Citi · Oct 20 · Read →
Gold/silver bull broadens into copper/aluminum in 2026 as oil falls to $60.
Oil Brent to $60 end-2026, $62 avg H2 2026
Copper $12k/t base, bull $14k over 6 to 12 months
Palladium tariffs underpriced near-term opportunity
Oil, copper forecasts revised higher
S&P Global · Oct 22 · Read →
Geopolitics and El Niño keep manufacturing costs, oil and copper elevated into 2027.
Brent $100/bbl Q4 2026, near $90 most of 2027
Copper upside risks from mine disruptions, AI demand
Diesel premiums stay high into 2027 on refinery damage
EIA raises Brent to $105 Q4 2026
EIA · Oct 6 · Read →
Middle East flows improve but EIA lifts Brent forecast $14 to $105/bbl in Q4.
Brent $105/bbl Q4 2026, $96 full-year avg
Henry Hub $3.16/MMBtu avg 2027, inventories high
Diesel/gasoline retail prices revised higher vs prior STEO
Brent $90 Dec 2026, $80 avg 2027
Goldman · Oct 16 · Read →
Supply recovery supports lower prices but renewed escalation keeps upside risks dominant.
Brent $90 Dec 2026, $80 2027 avg
Surplus market shifts Q4 2026 onward barring shocks
Demand 0.7 mb/d gap narrows by Q4 2027
Copper 2027 forecast raised to $13k/t
World Bank · Oct 28 · Read →
Mine supply lags power/AI demand; copper stays near records next year.
Copper $13,000/t 2027 avg, up 18% from April
Tin +22% to $45k/t; zinc +13% to $3,100/t
Metals index +25% 2026, new high despite 2027 dip
Metals caution on tariffs, supply growth
Citi · Oct 24 · Read →
Industrial metals face weak growth and tariff uncertainty; tin offers clearest upside.
Copper neutral pending tariff clarity
Aluminum surplus risk from Indonesia supply
Tin base $60k/t, bull $70k/t 6 to 12 months
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
Electrotech accelerating amid Hormuz crisis
HC Commodities · Oct 20 · Listen →
Hormuz disruption is accelerating electrotech adoption in emerging markets via solar leapfrogging and cheaper batteries.
Solar and EV two-wheelers gaining share in developing world
AI-electrification link strengthening demand
Fossil disruption boosting decentralized power
Tanker attacks continue but oil flows
Oil Ground Up · Oct 25 · Listen →
Iranian tanker strikes raise shipping costs dramatically yet crude exports persist via alternative routes and insurance shifts.
Satellite data shows rerouting around Hormuz
Tanker rates up twelvefold in spots
Refined product shortages more acute than crude
Permitting bill trade-offs examined
Columbia Energy Exchange · Oct 27 · Listen →
BAAJA permitting changes promise faster builds but shift costs and risks among communities, developers and clean vs fossil projects.
Lame-duck passage uncertain
Helps oil/gas and transmission equally
Community opposition remains key hurdle
Oil rally viewed as structural
CNBC (Power Lunch segment) · Oct 27 · Listen →
Jeff Currie: All oil market risks now strictly to the upside as diesel focus worsens gasoline shortages and prices stay elevated.
Gasoline could hit $5+/gallon pre-midterms
Diesel tightness driving refinery runs
Long-dated prices reflect permanence
Commodity Intelligence
Unanimous positive on oil.
The same questions to three frontier AIs, every week. Unedited verdicts · opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Where the panel stands
Oil all 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up unanimous 2 weeks |
|
Copper 2 of 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up 6th straight week |
|
US Nat Gas 2 of 3 AIs |
▼ Down Down 4th straight week |
|
Gold 2 of 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up 6th straight week |
Line: the price at each weekend issue since Jul 11. Dots: what most of the three AIs called that week, green Up, red Down.
Why, in their words
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI
▲ Up Hormuz tanker attack and Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries lift Brent toward $116
Gemini · Google
▲ Up Persistent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and escalating tanker threats in the Middle East will drive prices higher.
Claude · Anthropic
▲ Up Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries and Hormuz tanker attacks keep escalating, sustaining and building supply-risk premium.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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