Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Monday, October 26, 2026 · 48 stories
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
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S&P 500 Fut
7,686
+0.3%
+26 |
Dollar Index
101.76
-0.05%
-0.05 |
EUR/USD
1.1213
+0.08%
+0.0009 |
US 10Y Yield
4.988
+3.5 bp
|
Last price as of Mon, Oct 26, 5:34 AM ET. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Crude down on de-escalation hopes easing Middle East supply fears despite ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities.
US Nat Gas down $0.114 (-4.3%) on milder weather forecasts curbing heating demand expectations.
JKM Asian LNG up $0.80 (+2.6%) on stronger Northeast Asian winter buying and persistent Middle East supply risks.
Coffee down $7.8 (-2.5%) on profit-taking and producer selling after recent short-covering rally.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $2.18 (+2.3%) on Middle East tensions and below-average EU storage levels.
Tin up $805 (+1.6%) on macro sentiment recovery and short-covering amid low inventories.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long European summer 2027 gasoline futures and TTF Q1 2027 call spreads on asymmetric upside from potential geopolitical escalation and cold winter risks (Goldman Sachs, Oct 21).
US Nat Gas down $0.114 (-4.3%) on milder weather forecasts curbing heating demand expectations.
JKM Asian LNG up $0.80 (+2.6%) on stronger Northeast Asian winter buying and persistent Middle East supply risks.
Coffee down $7.8 (-2.5%) on profit-taking and producer selling after recent short-covering rally.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $2.18 (+2.3%) on Middle East tensions and below-average EU storage levels.
Tin up $805 (+1.6%) on macro sentiment recovery and short-covering amid low inventories.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long European summer 2027 gasoline futures and TTF Q1 2027 call spreads on asymmetric upside from potential geopolitical escalation and cold winter risks (Goldman Sachs, Oct 21).
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil eases from $117 peak amid Mideast tension
Arjun Neil Alim · Financial Times · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Brent crude fell 1.3% to around $115.18 a barrel in early London trading after surging to a five-month high near $117 on Friday, driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and fears of US-Iran escalation. WTI dropped 1.8% to $101.41. Traders focused on ongoing conflict risks despite Qatari mediation efforts and high-level talks involving Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials in Tehran. Read →
Singapore, Aramco agree on Saudi crude storage
Owen Walker · Financial Times · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Singapore will store up to 9 million barrels of Saudi Arabian crude in the Jurong Rock Caverns starting in the second half of 2027 under a deal with Saudi Aramco to bolster Southeast Asian energy security amid Middle East war disruptions. The agreement, announced by Singapore's energy minister, includes plans for five new gas-fired power plants to boost electricity generation by 26% over the next decade. Read →
Gold steadies near $4,000 ahead of Fed
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Gold traded either side of $4,000 an ounce after its biggest weekly drop since June, falling more than 4% last week to the lowest since July, as traders weighed high energy prices and the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting. Oil pulled back from a six-month high while US consumer sentiment slipped to a five-month low in October. Read →
Oil slips from six-month highs on de-escalation hopes
Reuters · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
WTI fell 1.7% to $101.51 a barrel and Brent dropped 1.28% to $115.23 early Monday after Friday's surge on Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, with markets eyeing Qatari mediation and high-level Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani talks in Tehran. Persistent attacks on Saudi targets kept supply concerns elevated despite the pullback. Read →
Mercuria sues Baltic Exchange over Hormuz rates
Financial Times · Mon, Oct 25, 2026
Trading house Mercuria is suing the Baltic Exchange in a case testing whether the shipping benchmark provider accurately assessed rates for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz during the Middle East war, claiming hundreds of millions in losses from inaccurate pricing. Read →
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3. US propane exports hit record high on surging European, Asian demand Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Oil retreats from six-month highs as de-escalation hopes offset Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure.
Cash WTI 107.87 -2.32 | Cash Brent 126.85 -1.68 | Cash Br–TI 18.98 +0.64 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
100.74 | -2.4% -2.53 |
+75.4% | +64.3% | +19.0% |
| Brent Dec 2026 |
114.25 | -2.1% -2.47 |
+79.8% | +66.8% | +26.7% |
| RBOB Gasoline Nov 2026 |
3.183 | -0.9% -0.028 |
+81.7% | +61.3% | +23.1% |
| Heating Oil Nov 2026 |
4.945 | -0.8% -0.039 |
+124% | +95.0% | +84.3% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
32.96 | +4.3% +1.35 |
+104% +16.78 |
+52.8% +11.40 |
+37.5% +9.00 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
106.95 | +0.8% +0.89 |
+203% +71.65 |
+137% +61.75 |
+281% +78.91 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
57.63 | +2.1% +1.19 |
+156% +35.07 |
+95.7% +28.18 |
+128% +32.30 |
Oil prices fall on US-Iran diplomacy and Saudi attacks
Farhan Rafid · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
December Brent futures fell 1.8% to $114.57/bbl and WTI dropped 2.2% to $100.96/bbl. Traders balanced fresh diplomatic outreach against renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites and airports. Middle East crude shipments through Hormuz have recovered substantially, limiting immediate supply impact. Read →
Oil drops from six-month high on Iran risks
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Brent traded toward $114/bbl and WTI below $101 after last week's six-month high. Trump said it is 'decision time' on Iran while Iran's foreign minister signaled restraint. Technical overbought signals reinforced the pullback amid mixed rhetoric. Read →
Saudi Arabia to store crude in Singapore from 2027
Reuters · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Saudi Arabia and Singapore announced an agreement for Aramco to store crude at Jurong Rock Caverns starting H2 2027. The move aims to strengthen Southeast Asia supply resilience after Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions. Aramco will sign an MoU with Singapore's energy regulator and JTC today. Read →
Chart of the dayHormuz crude transits Oct 17-23via @LVision_Trading on X · 74 likesTable and map of Hormuz crude flows at 8-9mbd average, down to 75-80% pre-war with Saudi and Red Sea breakdowns
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · Mild weather forecasts and resilient production pressure US natural gas futures lower despite LNG feedgas strength.
Cash Henry Hub 2.825 -0.033 |
Physical cash price from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Nov 2026 |
2.526 | -4.3% -0.114 |
-18.2% | -12.4% | -48.8% |
US natgas futures drop 6% to two-month low on mild weather outlook
Reuters · Fri, Oct 25, 2026
US natural gas futures fell about 6% to a two-month low on Friday on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next week than previously expected. LSEG data showed Lower 48 output averaging 111.6 bcfd in October, below recent record highs, while LNG feedgas flows rose to 18.2 bcfd. The storage surplus is expected to narrow further ahead of the next EIA report. Read →
Southeast, Appalachia spot prices tumble as production recovers
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Fri, Oct 23, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
Natural gas spot prices tumbled Friday with steepest losses in the Southeast and Appalachia amid recovering production and sluggish autumn demand. LNG feedgas demand stayed elevated while futures extended their sell-off on warmer weather forecasts pointing to a larger supply cushion into winter. Read →
Haynesville issues 17 permits in latest week, up from 15 prior
Shale Experts · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Haynesville shale saw 17 new permits issued in the week ending Oct. 25, up two from the prior week and covering four counties with eight active operators. Activity signals continued producer interest in the basin amid LNG demand growth in southern Louisiana. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane settled at 106.4¢/gal Friday, up 1.2%, on strong exports drawing down Gulf Coast stocks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.301 | +0.1% +0.000 |
+27.1% | +14.1% | -30.8% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.064 | +1.2% +0.013 |
+72.4% | +62.4% | -26.7% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.720 | +1.0% +0.017 |
+131% | +106% | +6.1% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.862 | +0.7% +0.013 |
+140% | +114% | +14.6% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.231 | +1.1% +0.025 |
+90.3% | +79.4% | +15.9% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 14 | +1 | +10 | +6 | +2 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 83 | +2 | +50 | +44 | -17 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -692 | -8 | -387 | -369 | -262 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -371 | -2 | -204 | -185 | -360 |
| C5 as % WTI | 93 | +3 | +7 | +8 | -3 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Dorian LPG orders three dual-fuel Panamax VLGCs
World Ports Organization · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
Dorian LPG placed a $345 million order with Hanwha Ocean for three 90,000 m³ dual-fuel Panamax VLGCs scheduled for delivery in 2030. The vessels will burn LPG or low-sulphur fuel and feature energy-saving designs for better efficiency on US Gulf-Asia routes. The order supports fleet renewal amid firm VLGC earnings driven by longer US voyages and Panama Canal constraints. Read →
Permian NGL infrastructure sustains export growth
Lisa Shidler · RBN Energy · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Permian NGL production growth continues to rely on fractionation, storage and export projects to reach global markets as domestic demand remains limited. The analysis examines how midstream expansions convert rising wet-gas output into LPG and ethane cargoes without creating new bottlenecks at Mont Belvieu. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF surges 3%+ to €97/MWh on Middle East tensions, low EU storage at 74.6% and net withdrawals.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
96.03 | +2.3% +2.18 |
+241% | +206% | +8.6% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
31.56 | +2.3% +0.72 |
+241% | +206% | +8.6% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.42 | +2.6% +0.80 |
+227% | +183% | -8.1% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sat, Oct 24
EU gas storage is 74.6% full, 846 TWh in store, 14.9 points below the five-year average for this date and 8.2 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 61.5%.
EU full 74.6% -0.01 pts d/d | Year ago 82.9% | 5-yr avg 89.5% same date |
Germany 61.5% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF jumps 2.9% to €96.60/MWh on Middle East risks
SoldiOnline.it · Mon, Oct 26, 8:11 AM ET
Dutch TTF rose 2.9% to €96.60/MWh at the open, driven by ongoing focus on Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz transit risks. Markets price in potential supply disruptions to global LNG routes. The move lifts European benchmark costs for heating and power. Read →
JKM hits high $31s/MMBtu, TTF to $30.8/MMBtu on winter fears
JOGMEC · Mon, Oct 26
JKM (Dec) climbed to high $31s/MMBtu on Middle East supply risks, colder European weather forecasts and stronger Northeast Asian buying from China, South Korea and India. TTF (Nov) rose to $30.8/MMBtu equivalent amid Norwegian field disruptions, lower temperatures and geopolitics; EU storage at 74.6%, first net winter withdrawal on Oct 20. Japan's LNG inventories fell week-on-week. Read →
TTF tops multi-year high on low storage, winter risks
The Brussels Times with Belga · The Brussels Times · Mon, Oct 26, 6:13 AM ET
Dutch TTF futures rose over 2% above €86/MWh to the highest since Dec 2022 on low EU storage levels versus prior years and shifting wintry weather. Middle East tensions add risk premium to LNG flows via Hormuz. Storage sits notably below seasonal norms ahead of heating demand. Read →
JKM rise, TTF support widen Asia-Europe arb
Sophie Becker · World Ports Organization · Mon, Oct 26
JKM climbed on Europe winter balance tightening, Middle East risks and Northeast Asia demand; TTF support from colder forecasts and Atlantic LNG maintenance tightens supply. Singapore bunker premium over ARA widened as December JKM rolled higher. Asian buyers compete aggressively for cargoes despite elevated prices. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM delays backstop capacity auction for 6.8 GW data-center shortfall after partial FERC approval; ERCOT pauses new data-center interconnections pending audit of 474 GW queue.
Texas data-center pause risks delaying 20% of US pipeline: BNEF
Utility Dive · Sat, Oct 25, 2026
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered a pause on new data-center interconnections and an audit of the ERCOT queue totaling 474 GW, 90% data centers. ERCOT delayed its Batch Zero transmission planning study for the first projects under new large-load rules. BNEF warned the moratorium risks delaying nearly 50 GW of projects, potentially causing $8 billion in revenue losses by Q1 2027 if 60% are AI-related. Read →
Oncor assesses Texas data-center freeze impact on 300 GW pipeline
Utility Dive · Sat, Oct 25, 2026
Oncor executives discussed uncertainty for 44 GW of large-load projects in its territory qualifying for ERCOT’s Batch Zero process amid the state moratorium. The utility supports the pause for durable long-term outcomes. Sempra noted the broader ERCOT queue exceeds 400 GW of large loads alongside hundreds of GW of generation waiting to connect. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures hold near $150.70/t amid persistent Asian winter restocking and supply constraints.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
147.00 | +0.7% +1.00 |
+50.8% | +58.7% | -36.4% |
| Newcastle $/t |
156.85 | – | +48.3% | +43.9% | -25.3% |
Newcastle coal extends four-week rally to $155/t.
CNBC Indonesia / jawawa.id · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
Newcastle coal futures closed at US$155/t on Oct 23, up 0.26% for the week and marking a fourth straight weekly gain. Support stems from Asian demand and supply uncertainty, with India prioritizing domestic output amid critically low plant stocks at 96 of 191 facilities as of Oct 19. Japan and South Korea are shifting from disrupted LNG supplies, sustaining seaborne demand despite high prices. Read →
Whitehaven posts record 11Mt Q1 coal output.
Reuters · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
Whitehaven Coal reported 11 million tonnes managed run-of-mine production for the September quarter, up 22% YoY and above consensus of 9.5Mt. Queensland operations rose 17% with metallurgical output from BHP-acquired mines; NSW thermal output jumped 27%. The miner expects stronger cash generation for the rest of FY27 and maintained full-year guidance despite sales slippage from terminal disruptions. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China-led US soybean export sales surge to 2.84M tons, lifting soy while harvest pressure weighs on corn and wheat.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
454 | -0.5% -2 |
+3.1% | +5.8% | -16.5% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
626 | +0.2% +1 |
+23.5% | +19.1% | -16.7% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,255 | -1.1% -14 |
+21.7% | +17.5% | +1.3% |
| Sugar | 20.26 | +0.1% +0.02 |
+35.0% | +40.1% | +3.1% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
299.7 | -2.5% -7.8 |
-14.1% | -23.2% | +44.0% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,560 | -0.6% -32 |
-8.3% | -10.1% | +115% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
79.47 | -0.9% -0.73 |
+25.0% | +24.4% | -26.1% |
US soybean exports hit 2.84M tons, lifting Chicago futures.
Reuters · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
USDA reported net US soybean export sales for the week ended Oct 15 at 2.841 million metric tons, nearly five times the prior week and near the top of expectations, driven by 2.18M tons to China. The surge offset harvest pressure and supported November futures up 3.5 cents to $12.565/bushel. Strong Chinese buying and higher oil prices provided concrete demand support for the soy complex. Read →
India extends duty-free raw sugar imports to Dec 31.
Reuters · Thu, Oct 23, 2026
India's government extended the duty-free import window for 1 million metric tons of raw sugar under the TRQ from Oct 31 to Dec 31 to bolster festive supplies. Only about 260,000 tons have been imported so far amid price parity issues. Domestic 2025 to 26 production estimates were cut to 306 lakh tons against demand of 280 to 285 lakh tons. Read →
First US wildlife screwworm case confirmed in Texas elk.
Reuters · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
USDA confirmed the first New World screwworm detection in US wildlife, in a hunter-harvested elk in Pecos County, Texas. New Mexico officials separately confirmed a case in a beef cow in Otero County. The agency is expanding surveillance and infested zones while resuming some cattle imports at additional ports starting Oct 26. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Nutrien's indefinite Trinidad nitrogen plant shutdown tightens ammonia supply amid lingering Hormuz shipping risks and elevated US retail prices.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,687 | +0.5% +9 |
-3.5% | +2.7% | -33.4% |
| Egypt FOB $/t |
510.00 | +1.0% +5.00 |
-11.3% | +17.6% | -36.1% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
480.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+17.9% | +14.1% | -38.4% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
436.75 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+12.9% | +15.5% | -36.7% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+28.4% | +4.6% | +16.6% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Nutrien shuts Trinidad plant as US fertilizer prices climb on Hormuz risks.
Global Agriculture · Mon, Oct 26, 8:12 AM ET
Nutrien confirmed on Oct 5 an indefinite shutdown of its Point Lisas nitrogen complex in Trinidad, citing unreliable natural gas supply after a controlled idling since Oct 2025. The move removes a key ammonia and urea source for Atlantic markets while DTN data shows US retail urea at $674/t (up 13% y/y), anhydrous ammonia at $987/t (up 18%), and similar gains in DAP, MAP and potash. S&P Global links persistent price pressure to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Chinese export curbs and a global sulfur shortage, with forecasters expecting elevated levels through 2026. Read →
USDA picks eight projects for $573M to expand US fertilizer output.
USDA · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary Brooke Rollins announced selection of eight FIELDS Program projects representing over $1.34B total investment, including $573M in proposed USDA funding. Key awards include $139M to Intrepid Potash for a 220kt sulfate of potash plant in New Mexico, $100M to PCI Nitrogen for ammonium sulfate and urea upgrades in Texas and Oregon, and $99.8M to TalusAg for 20 modular ammonia units across seven states producing 130kt anhydrous ammonia annually. USDA analysis projects the capacity could cut nitrogen prices 4.4% and potash prices 5.3% once operational while boosting domestic nitrogen output 3.7% and potash nearly 40%. Read →
Yara trims Q4 ammonia output on higher European natural gas prices.
Finimize / Reuters · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Yara will further reduce European ammonia production in Q4 after curtailing 150kt ammonia and 115kt finished products in Q3, mainly at Ferrara, Italy. The company forecasts natural gas costs $450M higher in Q4 2026 and $445M higher in Q1 2027 versus year-ago levels due to elevated TTF prices. European ammonia output is already 25 to 28% offline industry-wide as producers import more to manage margins, adding exposure to global shipping constraints. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Copper extends drop on AI stock weakness and Fed meeting jitters, pressuring the base metals complex.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,387 | +0.3% +41 |
+15.9% | +27.0% | +45.5% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,452 | +0.7% +106 |
+13.8% | +35.3% | +51.4% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,152 | +1.1% +35 |
+5.9% | +20.7% | +0.3% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,404 | +1.2% +39 |
+13.3% | +23.7% | +8.5% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,792 | -1.4% -217 |
-6.8% | +4.2% | -19.6% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,152 | -0.0% -0 |
-2.3% | +1.8% | +7.8% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
51,010 | +1.6% +805 |
+21.4% | +44.2% | +33.2% |
Copper drops as AI stocks falter ahead of Fed meeting
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Copper fell as much as 0.6% in London on Monday, extending last week’s decline. Weakness in AI-related tech stocks reduced risk appetite ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting. The metal, key for data centers and power infrastructure, faces near-term pressure from macro sentiment. Read →
MMG offers EU supply guarantee on Anglo nickel deal
Bloomberg · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
China’s MMG proposed a legally enforceable guarantee to maintain existing ferronickel supply levels to EU stainless steel producers. The move targets European Commission concerns over potential supply diversion in the $500 million purchase of Anglo American’s Brazilian nickel assets. If blocked, the mines could close, affecting regional nickel availability. Read →
LME zinc jumps 2% as base metals rise overnight
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Overnight, LME zinc rose 2.06% while copper gained 1.56%, aluminum 1.03%, tin 1.35% and lead 0.42%; nickel fell 1.58%. SHFE copper added 0.99% and aluminum 1.62%. Geopolitical factors lifted oil and supported select metals amid broader market moves. Read →
Copper rises on US manufacturing and geopolitics
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
LME copper closed up 1.42% in the prior overnight session to $14,298/mt. The International Copper Study Group reported a 132,000 mt refined copper surplus in August, shifting from July’s deficit. Chinese inventories fell while US manufacturing strength and geopolitical factors supported prices. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures hover near 670.5 CNY/t as hot metal output hits 2.32 Mt/day low amid weak China steel demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
89.1 | -0.5% -0.4 |
-11.5% | -8.8% | -13.3% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
409 | +0.0% +0 |
+3.9% | +6.8% | -48.3% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
419 | -0.7% -3 |
+1.7% | +3.1% | -47.5% |
Iron ore holds steady as China hot metal output falls to 2.32 Mt/day low.
Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson · Reuters via Mining.com.au · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
DCE most-traded iron ore contract ticked down 0.07% to 670.5 CNY/t while SGX November contract edged up 0.07% to $90.60/t. Average daily hot metal output, a direct gauge of blast-furnace iron ore demand, fell 0.5% week-on-week to 2.32 million tonnes, the lowest since late March per Mysteel data. Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures on the Shanghai exchange also slipped, reflecting persistently weak steelmaker profitability and sluggish downstream demand despite stimulus hopes. Read →
China-Australia iron ore tug-of-war simmers as port stocks rise.
Reuters · Sat, Oct 25, 2026
September iron ore imports reached 109.82 Mt, up 1.2% month-on-month, with year-to-date arrivals at 954.97 Mt. Port inventories monitored by SteelHome climbed to 152.23 Mt in the week to Oct 23, up 14% year-on-year, as lower prices around $90.60/t on SGX boosted import appetite but flows largely rebuilt stockpiles rather than lifting steel output. CMRG's push for greater pricing control creates ongoing tension with Australian suppliers Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue. Read →
Fortescue flags possible output cut if CMRG talks miss year-end.
David Winning · Wall Street Journal · Wed, Oct 22, 2026
Fortescue warned operations could be affected, potentially including production adjustments, if negotiations with CMRG are not concluded by calendar year-end. September-quarter sales of 42.9 Mt lagged shipments of 46.8 Mt due to the standoff and maintenance, with inventories expected to rise another 4 to 5 Mt in October. The company maintained its FY2027 shipment guidance of 197 to 207 Mt but noted the figures are subject to the outcome of talks. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Gold steadies near $4,000/oz as oil eases and Fed meeting looms, after 4% weekly drop.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,029 | +0.5% +21 |
-7.2% | +0.2% | +125% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
54.05 | +0.2% +0.10 |
-22.9% | +16.1% | +124% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,551 | -0.7% -11 |
-23.8% | -1.7% | +50.3% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,042 | -0.9% -10 |
-36.0% | -26.4% | -48.1% |
Gold flat below $4,000 as oil rise revives inflation fears.
Megan Cheah · WSJ · Sun, Oct 25, 11:58 PM ET
Spot gold held steady at $3,994.88 an ounce in early Asian trade. Renewed oil-price gains from Middle East tensions are reviving inflation concerns and expectations for higher US interest rates, which typically pressure non-yielding assets like gold. Read →
Gold and silver edge higher after sharp weekly losses.
Anshul · CNBC TV18 · Mon, Oct 26, 7:10 AM ET
COMEX gold futures rose 0.04% to $4,009.50 an ounce and silver futures gained 0.37% to $54.15 an ounce on Monday. The modest recovery follows a 4.14% weekly drop in gold and nearly 6% slide in silver, with investors assessing US rate outlook, bond yields and crude prices ahead of the Fed's October 27 to 28 decision. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China suspends US-specific gallium/germanium/antimony export ban to Nov 27 while rare earth pause nears Nov 10 deadline with no extension published.
China rare earth truce extends to Jan 10, pressuring MP, Lynas, USA Rare Earth.
TheStreet · Thu, Oct 8, 2026
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the US-China trade truce extension to January 10, 2027, giving MP Materials, Lynas and USA Rare Earth two extra months before potential tighter controls bite. August Chinese rare earth magnet shipments to the US fell 13% YoY to 512 tonnes and 21% from July. China Rare Earth Group is reportedly in talks to acquire Shenghe Resources, which holds a stake in MP Materials. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Suez Canal container capacity hits 753k TEU weekly, exceeding 50% of 2023 levels as CMA CGM and peers restore services.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.35M | -6.0% | +1679% | 224.7 | 30.65 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$429k | -22.1% | +621% | 120.8 | 16.48 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$209k | -16.0% | +299% | 122.7 | 16.74 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$329k | +9.7% | +1076% | 214.2 | 28.75 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$245k | +13.7% | +1080% | 228.5 | 25.67 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$62k | -3.1% | +74.6% | 89.7 | 10.55 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$78k | +8.3% | +273% | 106.8 | 14.34 |
Report of Oct 22, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
Suez Canal large-container transits jump tenfold in Q3 as CMA CGM expands return
SeaNews · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
The Suez Canal Authority reported 166 medium- and ultra-large containerships (>130,000 net tons) transited in Q3 2026 versus 16 a year earlier, with net tonnage rising to 29 million from 2.4 million. CMA CGM executives met SCA leadership to affirm the route as a permanent network element amid higher fuel prices and freight rates; the CMA CGM Pantheon completed its maiden transit. The shift shortens Asia-Europe voyages by 10 to 14 days versus Cape routing, cutting fuel burn and vessel requirements for carriers and shippers. Read →
BDI rises 1.4% to 2,546 as capesize rebounds on iron ore strength.
Emily Carter · World Ports Organization · Sun, Oct 25, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index climbed about 1.4% to 2,546 points on Monday after ten straight sessions of losses, led by a 3.6% gain in the capesize index to 3,365 points. The rebound tracked higher iron ore prices tied to stronger Chinese crude steel output and better-than-expected economic growth. Supramax edged up 0.2% while panamax slipped 1.2%. Read →
Weekly Suez container capacity reaches 753k TEU, first time above half of 2023 l
World Ports Organization · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
BIMCO cited Clarksons data showing average weekly container capacity through the Suez Canal at 753,000 TEU in the first two weeks of October, 52% of the 1.457 million TEU benchmark from the same 2023 period. The share of capacity using Suez versus Cape rose to 36% from an 8% average since early 2024; sixteen services have shifted back since July, led by Gemini, Ocean and Premier alliances plus MSC. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs consolidate near €87 as analysts diverge on post-2030 ETS reform impacts amid tight near-term balance.
Analysts split on EU carbon prices beyond 2030 amid ETS reform uncertainty
Carbon Pulse · Sun, Oct 26, 2026
A new poll shows European carbon prices are expected to stay supported short-term by a tight allowance balance and higher fossil fuel power generation. However, analysts disagree sharply on how proposed EU ETS reforms will affect prices after 2030, creating uncertainty for longer-term market balance and investment decisions in the compliance market. Read →
California’s carbon market changed this year, and the next governor will inherit the fallout
Emma Foehringer Merchant · CalMatters / Santa Cruz Sentinel · Fri, Oct 25, 2026, 11:49 AM PT
California’s cap-and-invest program saw major adjustments this year that the Legislative Analyst’s Office projects will halve annual auction revenue by about $2 billion while granting polluters up to $4 billion in new free permits. The state is also advancing linkage with Washington’s market, expected to start next year and potentially lift California prices from recent minimums, but critics say the changes guarantee missed 2030 and 2045 emissions targets and hand major policy choices to the incoming governor. Read →
Laos launches domestic carbon credit market with wetland and fuelwood projects
Carbon Pulse · Sun, Oct 26, 2026
The Lao government signed an MoU with a major private infrastructure firm to develop a domestic carbon credit market and voluntary emissions-reduction standards, prioritizing wetland conservation and fuelwood reduction projects. The initiative supports national climate goals, NDCs, and green economy efforts through public-private cooperation in forestry, water, and land management. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Metals traders post record profits as Trafigura hits $2B in metals trading amid tight copper and volatility.
Trafigura posts record $2B metals-trading profit as Glencore, peers reap bonanz
Bloomberg · Sat, Oct 24, 2:45 PM ET
Trafigura generated a record $2 billion profit from metals trading in its fiscal year ended September. Glencore posted some of its strongest metals-trading profits ever, though offset by a $480 million provision tied to iron-ore trader Radiant World. Mercuria is on track to match or exceed its prior-year metals profit above $300 million as volatility, tight copper concentrate and price swings drive a second consecutive blowout year for top trading houses. Read →
Welspun wins $580M Permian gas-pipe order for data-centre hyperscaler
Abhinav Parmar · Reuters · Fri, Oct 23, 4:21 AM ET
Welspun Corp’s US subsidiary secured an order worth 55 billion rupees ($580 million) to supply coated line pipes for a natural gas pipeline in the Permian Basin. The pipeline will serve a data-centre complex operated by a top-tier hyperscaler; deliveries are slated for fiscal 2029 from the company’s US facility. Welspun’s global order book reached a record $5.25 billion. Read →
CRH closes $8.5B Arcosa deal, adding 35M tons of US aggregates
CRH / Pit & Quarry / FT · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
CRH completed its $8.5 billion acquisition of Arcosa, a US provider of aggregates and infrastructure products. The deal adds 109 quarries and yards that shipped 35 million tons of aggregates in 2025 and expands CRH’s exposure to energy-transmission and data-centre projects. CRH will update full-year 2026 guidance with its Q3 results on October 29. Read →
Expand Energy appoints Danny Brown CEO effective Oct 26
Oil & Gas Journal / company release · Mon, Oct 19, 2026 (effective Oct 26)
Expand Energy (formerly Chesapeake) named Daniel E. “Danny” Brown president and CEO, effective October 26; he joins from Chord Energy and will also join the board. Interim CEO Michael A. Wichterich returns to non-executive chairman. Brown brings upstream and midstream experience from Anadarko and will lead North America’s largest natural-gas producer. Read →
Robin Energy agrees to buy 5,000 cbm LPG carrier for $18M
GlobeNewswire / company · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
Robin Energy agreed to acquire a 2015-built 5,000 cbm LPG carrier from AI OKTO CORP (controlled by its chairman/CEO) for $18 million in cash. The deal, approved by independent special committees, is expected to close in Q4 2026 and will bring the company’s fleet to three LPG carriers transporting petrochemical gases. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump's Graham Act waiver on Russia energy tariffs/sanctions eases supply fears as oil slips and China relaxes critical mineral export curbs.
Trump waives Graham Act Russia sanctions, tariffs
Enerdata · Mon, Oct 20, 2026
President Trump signed an executive order waiving sanctions and tariffs under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, including up to 500% duties on Russian goods and 100% on top buyers of Russian oil and gas. The waiver, issued two days before the Oct. 18 deadline and citing national interests, follows a US-Russia diesel export deal and aims to ease elevated fuel prices ahead of midterms. It suspends the measures until further action while monitoring continues. Read →
Oil eases on Trump Russia energy waiver
Reuters · Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Brent crude futures fell 49 cents to $109.06 a barrel as markets weighed Trump's executive order waiving Russia-related sanctions and tariffs on energy exports. The move follows a US-Russia diesel deal and comes amid Middle East shipping attacks that cut Gulf crude flows. Russia's September crude output rose 65,000 bpd to 8.43 million bpd but remained below year-ago levels. Read →
China relaxes gallium, germanium export curbs
Brett Fortnam · Inside U.S. Trade · Sat, Oct 26, 2026
China agreed to relax export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite and antimony, lift retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products, and allow Nexperia semiconductor products to leave China, per a White House fact sheet. The steps detail a deal from the recent Trump-Xi summit and follow earlier suspensions of US-specific bans on the metals until Nov. 27, 2026. These critical minerals are key inputs for semiconductors, EVs and defense supply chains. Read →
Trump waives 100% tariffs on Russia oil buyers
CBS News · Fri, Oct 17, 2026
Trump issued an executive order waiving 500% tariffs on Russian goods and 100% tariffs on the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas under the Graham Act, which he signed in September. The waivers, effective until further action and justified as in the national interest, also halt related sanctions on banks and investments. They coincide with a US-Russia diesel supply agreement to address high fuel prices. Read →
UK maintains Russia sanctions despite Trump deal
Bloomberg · Sat, Oct 18, 2026
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government signaled disagreement with Trump's approach to Russia sanctions, including the diesel export deal and Graham Act waiver. A key UK minister highlighted a growing divergence between allies on Ukraine policy. The UK stance contrasts with US moves to ease some energy-related measures amid high diesel prices. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil traders eye Sunday gap down in crude
X / multiple traders · Sun, Oct 25
#OOTT accounts note crude futures gapping lower Sunday evening EST following recent price action, with some viewing it as 'no war, make love' signal amid ongoing Middle East tensions. Discussions highlight physical market tightness versus paper positioning, with Brent-WTI spreads and tanker risks in focus for Monday open. Read →
Traders bet on 5% Brent crude sell-off Monday
X / multiple traders · Sun, Oct 25
#OOTT voices anticipate a sharp -5% drop in Brent and WTI Monday, citing potential de-escalation or positioning unwind after recent highs near $117 Brent. Others counter with upside fuel from sustained supply risks and demand recovery signals from China and India. Read →
Commodities index tests 18-year resistance
X / multiple traders · Sun, Oct 25
Traders highlight GSCI index approaching key 18-year resistance after Brent strength, signaling potential end to post-2008 commodity underperformance. Oil's role in broader complex rally draws attention alongside metals and ag positioning. Read →
Oil squeeze as 500M barrels inventory burned
X / @puckrin · Sat, Oct 24
Post details Barclays data showing China imports near pre-war levels, India up y/y, US demand recovering while supply lags at 84% pre-war. Physical premiums hit $13/bbl for prompt cargoes, with 500M barrels drawn down and backwardation signaling real tightness beyond paper jawboning. Read →
r/oil megathread on Hormuz blockade and flows
r/oil · Sun, Oct 25
Retail and trader discussions in the weekly megathread focus on fluctuating Hormuz/Arabian Sea tanker traffic, recent hits, and recovery patterns. Users debate Kpler data accuracy on ME exports, supply squeeze persistence, and implications for prices amid US-Iran tensions. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Tanker flows amid Hormuz attacks
Samir Madani (TankerTrackers) on Oil Ground Up (podcast) · Mon, Oct 26
Tanker day rates have gone from $100 to 200k to $1.5 million. Watch/Listen →
Brent $115 vs fundamentals $94
Natasha Kaneva (J.P. Morgan) on At Any Rate (podcast) · Fri, Oct 23
Brent trades at $115 while fundamentals model suggests $94. Watch/Listen →
Europe winter energy crunch
Helima Croft (RBC Capital Markets) on CNBC Power Lunch · Fri, Oct 23
Europe faces a potential winter of discontent over energy. Watch/Listen →
Grains bounce on export sales
Arlan Suderman (StoneX) on Market Talk (podcast) · Fri, Oct 23
Over 104 million bushels of soybeans sold in the latest week. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
12%
-1pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through December 31
28%
-5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by December 31
11%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
17%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US recession by end of 2026
8%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
18%
+4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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