Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 · 42 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Tue, Sep 29, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Oil is quiet today with WTI crude $93 and Brent crude at $106. After Monday’s separate US Iran talks with mediators (Iran’s foreign minister still in New York), markets are treating the diplomatic stall as more important than a rebound in Gulf loadings. Kpler put Middle East crude exports at 12.8 million b/d in Sep, the highest since Feb, helped by Saudi and the UAE, with the repaired East-West pipeline moving about 3.5 million b/d and Yanbu loadings resumed. Iranian crude remains trapped by the US naval blockade, and barrels already outside the Gulf and bound for China could be largely gone by mid-October. China is not testing the blockade as they did before Sep. Goldman’s Brent range still runs from about $80 if flows normalize to $120 if attacks on shipping intensify.
Cotton down $1.77 (-2.1%) on accelerating U.S. harvest progress and weak export demand.
Platinum down $36 (-2.0%) on rising U.S. Treasury yields and fading geopolitical de-escalation hopes pushing oil higher.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $1.33 (-1.8%) on de-escalation signals in U.S.-Iran talks easing near-term supply concerns.
Silver down $0.81 (-1.3%) on higher oil prices and increased odds of further U.S. rate hikes lifting yields.
JKM Asian LNG up $0.26 (+1.0%) on tightening Asian winter demand and competition for cargoes amid European storage shortfalls.
Kicker: Rabobank recommends long cotton futures on improved U.S. export sales and China tariff relief prospects (Rabobank, Sep 28).
Cotton down $1.77 (-2.1%) on accelerating U.S. harvest progress and weak export demand.
Platinum down $36 (-2.0%) on rising U.S. Treasury yields and fading geopolitical de-escalation hopes pushing oil higher.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $1.33 (-1.8%) on de-escalation signals in U.S.-Iran talks easing near-term supply concerns.
Silver down $0.81 (-1.3%) on higher oil prices and increased odds of further U.S. rate hikes lifting yields.
JKM Asian LNG up $0.26 (+1.0%) on tightening Asian winter demand and competition for cargoes amid European storage shortfalls.
Kicker: Rabobank recommends long cotton futures on improved U.S. export sales and China tariff relief prospects (Rabobank, Sep 28).
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Gold falls 3% as Fed rate-hike odds climb on oil surge
Giulia Petroni · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
New York gold futures dropped 3% to around $4,189 an ounce in early European trade amid rising oil prices and expectations the Federal Reserve will hike rates in October, with traders pricing in a 70% chance of such a move. The U.S. dollar strengthened, adding pressure on the non-yielding metal, though some selling was attributed to profit-taking ahead of China's Golden Week holiday. Read →
Oil rises for second day on Iran stalemate despite Saudi flows
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Brent crude climbed above $106 a barrel and WTI headed toward $94 as lack of progress in U.S.-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz and strong demand outweighed Saudi Arabia's resumption of flows through a key pipeline. Iranian officials expressed pessimism about a deal before U.S. midterms following Trump's rejection of a proposal to reopen the waterway. Read →
Copper falls on weak China industrial profits ahead of holiday
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Copper and other base metals retreated as China's industrial enterprise earnings grew just 4.2% year-over-year in August, the weakest since a November decline, ahead of the National Day holiday. Traders assessed demand prospects for the top consumer amid the data and pre-holiday positioning. Read →
Oil up again as Mideast supply worries persist
Reuters · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Brent and WTI rose for a second straight session as concerns over supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict outweighed recovering exports from the region, with Middle East crude shipments rebounding but still below pre-war levels. Workarounds like ship-to-ship transfers keep costs elevated and markets tight. Read →
Gold rebounds slightly after seven-week low on yield relief
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Gold edged higher after hitting a more than seven-week low, as a sharp selloff in U.S. Treasuries stabilized even amid persistent expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. Bullion traded above $4,140 an ounce following a 4% tumble the prior session tied to higher oil and yields. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 2US Natural Gas 3Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 2Coal 2Agriculture 2Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 2Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 2Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 1Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Oil rises as Iran-US stalemate outweighs Saudi pipeline restart and higher Gulf exports.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 92.69 | +0.1% +0.09 |
+61.4% | +48.6% | +23.9% |
| Brent | 105.49 | +0.2% +0.21 |
+60.8% | +46.0% | +24.4% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.167 | +0.3% +0.009 |
+85.7% | +60.5% | +42.0% |
| Heating Oil | 4.449 | -1.0% -0.046 |
+110% | +90.7% | +92.8% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
40.31 | +0.7% +0.28 |
+184% +26.10 |
+96.7% +19.82 |
+114% +21.51 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
94.17 | -2.1% -2.03 |
+198% +62.53 |
+165% +58.58 |
+326% +72.09 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
58.26 | -0.8% -0.49 |
+191% +38.24 |
+128% +32.74 |
+193% +38.37 |
Brent hits $106.77 as US-Iran conflict fuels supply fears
Kanchan Yadav · Economic Times · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Brent rose 1.4% to $106.77 per barrel and WTI gained 1.5% to $93.94 amid persistent supply disruption worries from the US-Iran conflict outweighing recovering regional exports. Higher shipments from Saudi Arabia and UAE lifted September Gulf volumes but failed to ease Hormuz-related uncertainty. Read →
Oil settles higher on Hormuz and Iran deal worries
Business Recorder / Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Brent settled at $105.28 per barrel, up 96 cents, and WTI at $92.60, up 19 cents, after an early surge on Trump's rejection of Iran's Hormuz proposal faded on expectations of Qatari-mediated talks. Supply uncertainty from the Strait of Hormuz kept a risk premium in place despite diplomatic efforts. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · October Henry Hub futures fell 3% to $3.10 as Mountaineer XPress pipeline flows resumed after force majeure lift.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.088 | -0.6% -0.018 |
-16.2% | -6.5% | -43.6% |
US natgas futures fall 3% as WV pipe returns
Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
TC Energy’s Columbia Gas lifted the force majeure on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline Sunday after a mechanical issue was resolved, restoring flows from the Marcellus/Utica region. October futures on NYMEX fell 10.1 cents or 3.2% to $3.095/MMBtu on the last day as the front month. Spot prices in the Northeast dropped below $1/MMBtu, the lowest since 2020 to 2023, amid a powerful nor’easter storm slashing weekend demand. Read →
Henry Hub slips 2.65% to $3.11 as surplus narrows
Itai Smidt · TradingNEWS · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
US working gas storage reached 3,351 Bcf after a 53 Bcf injection for the week ended Sep 18, leaving the surplus over the five-year average at 95 Bcf, down from 118 Bcf. LNG feedgas flows averaged a record 17.8 Bcf/d in September, up from 17.2 Bcf/d in August. September Lower 48 output averaged near-record 112.8 Bcf/d even as daily production has declined recently. Read →
Weather offsets high rollover on NATGAS
XTB · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
US natural gas trades around $3.12/MMBtu after the recent contract rollover and resolution of the Mountaineer Xpress outage. Record September production near 112.5 Bcf/d and EIA forecasts for end-October storage at 3,985 Bcf (5% above average) weigh on prices. LNG export flows reached 19.0 Bcf/d Monday despite Cove Point maintenance, providing counter-support. Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane settles at 85.5¢/gal (+0.3%) as stronger Neches River exports tighten PADD 3 stocks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.256 | -0.0% -0.000 |
+8.2% | +2.0% | -34.1% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
0.855 | +0.3% +0.002 |
+38.6% | +20.2% | -33.7% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.274 | +0.2% +0.002 |
+70.9% | +41.6% | -13.5% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.395 | +0.7% +0.010 |
+79.4% | +50.5% | -9.0% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.049 | +0.0% -0.000 |
+74.8% | +56.9% | +20.7% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 5 | unch | +6 | +2 | +3 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 57 | unch | +29 | +16 | -22 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -644 | +4 | -339 | -275 | -238 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -397 | +5 | -230 | -204 | -361 |
| C5 as % WTI | 93 | unch | +7 | +5 | -2 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
US LPG cargoes shift toward more butane amid Asia demand shift
Malik Johnson · World Ports Organization · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
US LPG export slates contain rising butane shares, with cargoes heading to Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean and Africa as buyers favor mixed loads. Energy Transfer Nederland dominates butane exports while Enterprise Houston and Phillips 66 Freeport gain share; expansions at Enterprise (660 kb/d combined) and ET (150 kb/d) support the shift. Propane exports lag as Northeast Asia (Japan/South Korea) demand weakens due to poor PDH and steam-cracker margins, keeping Mont Belvieu propane 30 ¢/gal below year-ago levels. Read →
China ramps US LPG imports via duty strategy
Zhang Weili · World Ports Organization · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
US LPG arrivals into China hit 630 kbd in July and 530 kbd in August 2026, exceeding five-year seasonal averages and recovering toward pre-2025 trade-war levels despite an 11% duty. Buyers increasingly use bonded storage and processing-trade declarations (covering 28% of US-origin propane Jan-Jul 2026) to defer or avoid duties, supporting PDH feedstock needs amid Middle East supply shortfalls. Panama Canal constraints and Hormuz tensions are pushing more cargoes via Cape routes, with transit costs easing recently. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · Qatar extends LNG force majeure to Dec for Edison, Nov for Asian buyers as Hormuz stays disrupted, sustaining TTF-JKM tightness.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
72.11 | -1.8% -1.33 |
+153% | +126% | -17.9% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
23.96 | -1.8% -0.44 |
+153% | +126% | -17.9% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
26.08 | +1.0% +0.26 |
+172% | +136% | -13.1% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sun, Sep 27
EU gas storage is 71.2% full, 805 TWh in store, 15.5 points below the five-year average for this date and 11.2 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 57.6%.
EU full 71.2% +0.28 pts d/d | Year ago 82.3% | 5-yr avg 86.7% same date |
Germany 57.6% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Qatar extends LNG force majeure through Nov/Dec amid Hormuz block
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
QatarEnergy notified buyers including Italy’s Edison (deliveries suspended to early December) and clients in Pakistan, Bangladesh and India (cancellations through November) that force majeure continues due to ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the US-Iran conflict. Qatar’s LNG exports have fallen 96% since March; six more cargoes cancelled for Edison bring the total to 35. The extension keeps global LNG supply tight into winter, supporting elevated European and Asian benchmarks. Read →
China LNG imports seen down 8% y/y in Sep on high prices
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Kpler projects China’s September LNG arrivals at 5.3 million tonnes, down 8% from a year earlier, marking the second consecutive monthly decline as spot prices above $20/MMBtu (peaking near $26) curb spot buying. Major Chinese importers are shifting focus to long-term contracts avoiding Hormuz routes. Reduced Chinese demand eases some pressure on the global spot market but leaves Europe competing harder for remaining Atlantic and alternative cargoes. Read →
Qatar skips Edison deliveries to early Dec; 35 cargoes now cancelled
Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
QatarEnergy extended force majeure, confirming no LNG cargoes to Edison (Italy’s major buyer under a long-term 6.4 bcm/year contract) until early December; six additional cancellations bring the total to 35 since April. Edison has substituted 23 cargoes, mainly with US supply. With winter approaching, European buyers including Germany (storage 57%) must accelerate injections from other sources amid structurally low EU storage (70 to 71% vs 88% norm). Read →
Some Qatar LNG vessels transit Hormuz; volumes remain minimal
Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
A handful of QatarEnergy-linked LNG carriers (e.g., GasLog Skagen, Al Shamal, Mesaimeer) have recently exited or transited the Strait of Hormuz after weeks inside the Gulf, with some heading to India or China. Volumes are a tiny fraction of pre-war levels (Qatar exported only 18 cargoes through end-August vs 509 a year earlier). Limited resumption signals persistent risk but has not yet eased the broader supply squeeze supporting TTF and JKM. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM files FERC backstop auction plan to procure up to 6.8 GW new capacity amid data-center driven shortfall, with auction set to open Sept. 30.
Texas data center pause risks delaying 20% of US pipeline: BNEF
Utility Dive · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s Monday pause on data-center interconnections and permits, triggered by an audit of nearly 50 GW of projects in the ERCOT queue, threatens delays for about 20% of the US data-center pipeline per BloombergNEF analysis. The move follows 474 GW of total interconnection requests (90% data centers) and could cause up to $8 billion in revenue losses by Q1 2027 if prolonged. ERCOT delayed its Batch Zero transmission planning study in response, forcing developers to reassess timelines. Read →
French day-ahead power prices average 204 €/MWh on Monday, down 18% Tuesday
Selectra · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
French EPEX SPOT day-ahead prices averaged 204 €/MWh on Monday with a low of 150 €/MWh at 13:00 and peak of 342 €/MWh at 19:00; Tuesday’s average is forecast at 167 €/MWh. No negative-price hours occurred Monday or are expected Tuesday. Prices reflect typical late-September patterns without scarcity signals across the EPEX footprint. Read →
Coal
What's moving · India's captive coal plants ordered to max output from Oct 1 amid plunging stockpiles and power shortages.
India orders captive coal plants to max output amid stock plunge
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 8:04 AM ET
India’s power ministry directed over 100 captive coal plants (50 MW+) to run at full capacity from October 1 to December 31 and sell surplus power on exchanges. Plants serving industries like steel and cement must report weekly coal stocks to the CEA. Coal inventories at grid-connected stations have more than halved year-on-year to the lowest in nearly three years, driven by weak hydro, fading solar after sunset, and El Niño-boosted demand. Read →
Indonesia coal exports hit five-year low as quotas and river levels bite
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 7:24 AM ET
Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, saw exports fall to a five-year low this month after government quota cuts and low water levels in Kalimantan barging rivers. Traders at the CoalTrans Asia conference noted tightest supply conditions in years despite soaring global prices from gas-to-coal switching tied to Persian Gulf disruptions. The shortfall limits Indonesia’s ability to capitalize on record demand. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · China tariff list skips US soybeans, triggering 2 to 3% CBOT selloff as harvest advances on pace.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 523 | -0.1% -1 |
+18.7% | +25.8% | -3.1% |
| Wheat | 685 | -0.6% -4 |
+35.0% | +34.7% | -3.6% |
| Soybeans | 1,287 | -0.1% -2 |
+24.9% | +28.5% | +0.2% |
| Sugar | 18.60 | +0.2% +0.04 |
+23.9% | +15.5% | -1.8% |
| Coffee | 288.1 | -0.2% -0.7 |
-17.4% | -23.2% | +48.9% |
| Cocoa | 5,626 | +0.7% +37 |
-7.2% | -16.6% | +117% |
| Cotton | 81.09 | -2.1% -1.77 |
+26.7% | +28.6% | -21.7% |
USDA: US corn 18% harvested, soybeans 17% complete
AgroLatam · Mon, Sep 28
USDA's weekly Crop Progress report showed US corn harvest at 18% complete as of Sept. 27, matching the five-year average, with 96% dented and 72% mature. Soybean harvest reached 17%, also on pace, with 75% dropping leaves and the crop rated 58% good-to-excellent. National corn condition held at 57% good-to-excellent. Read →
Soybean futures drop 2.3% on fund liquidation
Kirk Maltais · MarketScreener / Dow Jones · Mon, Sep 29
November soybean futures fell 2.3% to $13.02 1/4 per bushel on the CBOT amid selling of sizable net-long fund positions tracked by CFTC data. December corn dropped 1.2% to $5.35 3/4 and December wheat fell 2.3% to $7.01 3/4 as row-crop sentiment turned sour post-tariff news. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Chile mine strike vote lifts copper toward $14,500/t amid tight China stocks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,532 | -0.6% -93 |
+17.1% | +37.2% | +56.9% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,520 | +0.1% +22 |
+14.3% | +46.7% | +52.2% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,173 | -0.0% -1 |
+6.6% | +23.7% | +9.4% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,496 | +0.4% +13 |
+16.4% | +27.1% | +14.6% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,214 | -0.4% -65 |
-4.3% | +6.7% | -21.1% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,142 | +0.3% +8 |
-2.8% | +2.8% | +5.1% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
53,944 | +0.4% +229 |
+28.4% | +59.0% | +57.8% |
Antofagasta Centinela workers reject offer, paving strike path
Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 4:24 PM ET
Workers at Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela copper mine in Chile voted 98.73% to reject the company's final contract offer. The unions must now enter mandatory mediation before any strike can begin. Centinela produced 240,400 metric tons of copper in 2025, adding near-term supply risk to a market already tight on Chinese inventories. Read →
Copper edges higher on Chile mine strike risk
Jessica Zhou · Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 11:58 PM ET
LME copper futures rose toward $14,500 per ton as workers at Antofagasta's Centinela site overwhelmingly rejected the wage offer. The move heightens strike prospects at a key Chilean operation. Prices remain near September's record high with the metal on track for a third straight monthly gain. Read →
SMM suspends China metals prices and news for National Day
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Sep 28, 5:06 AM ET
SMM will halt updates on Chinese metal prices and news from Oct 1 to 7 for the National Day holiday. The pause covers spot quotes, inventories, and analysis across copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, tin, lead, and lithium. Traders face a data blackout during the extended break. Read →
Shanghai copper premiums ease as imports arrive pre-holiday
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Sep 29, 1:29 AM ET
Shanghai spot copper premiums pulled back this week as imported cargoes replenished the market and pre-holiday buying slowed. Premiums over the SHFE 2610 contract averaged around 1,140 yuan per ton Monday. The center is expected to remain under pressure short-term despite support ahead of the holiday. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures hit five-week low at 703.5 yuan/mt as CISA urges output restraint amid rising port stocks and weak mill margins.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
92.4 | -0.6% -0.6 |
-8.2% | -3.4% | -13.3% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
401 | +0.2% +1 |
+1.9% | +3.6% | -44.3% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
431 | -0.1% -1 |
+4.5% | +4.9% | -43.1% |
Dalian iron ore futures hit five-week low on China steel cuts.
Rio Times Online · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
China’s most-traded January iron-ore contract on Dalian fell 1.1% to 703.5 yuan (US$105) per tonne on September 28, its lowest since August 20, while the Singapore October contract traded down 0.68% at US$94.45. Crude-steel output dropped 3.7% year-on-year in August and 3.1% over the first eight months of 2026; CISA urged mills to restrain production as port inventories rose and profitability weakened. Holiday restocking offered limited support, leaving iron ore prices under pressure from subdued demand. Read →
DCE iron ore drops as restocking ends and prices lose support.
Priya Anika Rajan · World Ports Organization / MMI · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
The DCE most-traded contract fell 8.5 yuan to 705.0 yuan/mt and Qingdao Port spot prices dropped 10, 12 yuan/wmt as SMM reported restocking demand largely complete. The MMi 61% port spot index fell the most (-1.74%), collapsing the high-low grade spread; global shipments recovered but arrivals eased. CISA mid-September pig iron output aligned at 1.770 million mt/day (-1.4%), confirming softening demand support near term. Read →
CISA and 45 mills call for output curbs and inventory cuts.
Bloomberg / SteelOrbis / industry reports · Tue, Sep 15, 2026 (context of ongoing impact)
CISA and major producers including Baowu, HBIS, Ansteel and Shougang issued a joint initiative for strict output controls, voluntary restraint and inventory reduction amid “strong supply, weak demand, low prices, thin profits.” Only 7.8% of blast-furnace mills were profitable in mid-September versus 32.5% end-August; the move targets alignment with actual demand and could further reduce iron-ore import needs. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold edges higher near 7-week low as Treasury yields stabilize after sharp selloff.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,172 | +0.1% +4 |
-3.9% | +7.7% | +142% |
| Silver | 60.91 | -1.3% -0.81 |
-13.2% | +31.7% | +184% |
| Platinum | 1,709 | -2.0% -36 |
-16.0% | +7.9% | +81.0% |
| Palladium | 1,229 | +0.5% +6 |
-24.6% | -2.7% | -33.0% |
Northern Star rejects $27B Gold Fields takeover bid
Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 3:15 AM ET
Australia's top gold producer Northern Star rejected an unsolicited A$38.7 billion ($27.1 billion) cash-and-stock bid from South Africa's Gold Fields that would have created the world's No. 2 gold miner by output. The board called the offer opportunistic and materially undervalued its assets while exposing shareholders to higher jurisdictional risk via a large equity component. Northern Star shares rose 6.2% on the news while Gold Fields shares fell sharply, underscoring ongoing consolidation pressure in the sector. Read →
Barrick averts Mali gold mine strikes with union deal
Bloomberg · Sun, Sep 27, 7:34 AM ET
Barrick Mining signed a new collective bargaining agreement with unions at its Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex in western Mali, calling off planned strikes by workers at the mine and related contractors. The deal resolved 15 demands around overtime pay and expenses after talks on September 21. It removes immediate operational disruption risk at one of Mali's largest gold operations following prior government disputes. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's export controls and US-China summit talks drive rare earth supply uncertainty and non-China project momentum.
Xi exit leaves China critical minerals leverage intact
Jack Lifton · InvestorNews · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
President Xi Jinping’s Washington visit ended without a concrete resolution on rare earth and critical minerals supply restrictions. US manufacturers remain exposed as Beijing’s controls persist and non-China capacity builds slowly. The outcome underscores ongoing leverage for China despite US friend-shoring efforts. Read →
Rare earth prices stable amid weak trading
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Rare earth prices held steady with subdued trading ahead of China’s National Day holiday. Downstream magnet makers completed pre-holiday stockpiling, limiting new deals. Broader sentiment from US-China talks supports light rare earths like Pr-Nd while fundamentals cap upside. Read →
US-China tariff cuts skip rare earths
South China Morning Post · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Washington and Beijing waived tariffs on a $30 billion list of goods excluding rare earths and critical minerals. Analysts say the move will not dramatically reshape trade flows or ease supply tensions. Rare earths remain a key unresolved issue in bilateral relations. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz shuttle trade and ship-to-ship transfers keep VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax spot rates near record highs.
Hormuz shuttle boosts VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax rates near highs
Greg Miller · Lloyd's List · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
The Hormuz shuttle trade and Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers have sustained VLCC and Suezmax spot rates near all-time highs while Aframax indexes hit records on Monday. Product tanker rates also surged, with the Singapore-Australia MR index at its highest since September 2022. The inefficiency of moving crude out of the Gulf via multiple vessels tightens availability across crude and product tanker segments. Read →
BDI falls 4.6% to 3,268 on weaker Capesize rates
Reuters via Baird Maritime / Investing.com · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index fell 158 points or 4.61% to 3,268 on Monday, its lowest since September 1. Capesize rates dropped 433 points or 7.49% to 5,351, cutting daily earnings by $3,930 to $45,024, while Panamax eased modestly and Supramax edged higher. Lower Dalian iron ore futures and ample supply weighed on larger-vessel demand for iron ore and coal cargoes. Read →
LNG spot rates fall 19 to 24% week-on-week
World Ports Organization / Clarksons / Braemar · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Clarksons assessed average spot rates for 174,000-cbm LNG carriers down 24% week-on-week to $32,500 per day and 160,000-cbm tonnage off 19% to $25,500 per day. Atlantic weakness drove the decline while East Asian markets held steadier. Braemar bid-ask indications showed East basin rates at $30,000, $40,000 per day for larger two-stroke vessels versus $18,000, $30,000 in the West. Read →
Environment
What's moving · RGGI allowances rebound above $38 as Virginia re-entry lifts secondary-market volumes and demand.
RGGI allowances rebound above $38 with doubled volumes
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Sep 29, 12:43 AM ET
RGGI Allowances (RGAs) traded back above the $38 mark in secondary markets after briefly dipping near the Q3 auction clearing price of $37.65. Trading volumes roughly doubled in the latest period. The rebound follows Virginia’s return to the program and sustained buying interest amid tighter long-term caps starting in 2027. Read →
Virginia rejoins RGGI as allowance prices surge to $37.65
Vasil Velev · Carbon Herald · Sun, Sep 28, 2026
Virginia resumed RGGI participation on July 1, 2026; the first post-return auction on Sept. 9 cleared at $37.65 per allowance, up sharply from prior levels. Dominion Energy filed to recover costs via a proposed $10, 13 monthly customer charge, projecting $1.18 billion in RGGI-related revenue needs through 2028. The September auction generated over $1.07 billion across the 11-state market. Read →
EU issues 77% of 2026 free EUA allocations ahead of deadline
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
The European Commission reported that EU member states have distributed 77% of the expected 2026 free EUA allocation to industrial operators. The update arrives as companies finalize surrenders of allowances covering 2025 emissions by the Sept. 30 deadline. The data highlights ongoing compliance activity in the EU ETS ahead of potential policy adjustments to the Market Stability Reserve. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Gold Fields' rejected $27B Northern Star bid and FTAI's $255M crude logistics deal drive M&A focus in gold and oil midstream.
Northern Star rejects $27B Gold Fields takeover bid
Bloomberg · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
Australia’s Northern Star Resources rejected an unsolicited A$38.7 billion ($27.1 billion) cash-and-shares takeover proposal from South Africa’s Gold Fields that would have created the world’s second-largest gold miner. The board called the offer opportunistic, materially undervalued, and carrying excessive jurisdictional risk via a large equity component. The move underscores consolidation pressure in gold amid high prices but shows targets pushing back on low-premium deals. Read →
Jefferson buys $255M Port Arthur crude terminal and DRU stake
FTAI Infrastructure · Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
FTAI Energy Partners (Jefferson), a subsidiary of FTAI Infrastructure, agreed to acquire the Port Arthur Terminal in Texas and a 50% stake in the Hardisty Diluent Recovery Unit from USD Group for about $255 million. The assets, expected to generate $50 million annual EBITDA, form an integrated crude logistics platform under long-term take-or-pay contracts serving Gulf Coast refiners. The deal more than doubles Jefferson’s EBITDA and is set to close in Q4 2026 pending approvals. Read →
Barrick signs Mali union deal, averts Loulo-Gounkoto strike
Reuters · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
Barrick Mining signed a new collective bargaining agreement with unions at its Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex in western Mali, canceling planned strikes. The deal covers workers at the mine and related contractors after negotiations resolved demands over pay and conditions. It removes near-term operational risk at one of Africa’s major gold operations following prior government disputes. Read →
1947 Oil & Gas lists on AIM after Renaissance Offshore buy
Oil & Gas 360 / World Oil · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
1947 Oil & Gas plc started trading on London’s AIM after raising £50 million and completing its acquisition of Houston-based Renaissance Offshore. The deal gives the new producer interests in 11 shallow-water Gulf of Mexico fields with 15 MMboe 1P and 19.7 MMboe 2P reserves. The company plans further conventional asset consolidation in the region using the platform. Read →
PTTEP takes FID on Bussabong gas field in Thailand
PTTEP · Mon, Sep 22, 2026
PTTEP and partner Valeura took final investment decision on Phase 1 of the Bussabong gas field in Block G3/65 offshore Gulf of Thailand. The project will tie into existing Bongkot infrastructure via a 9 km subsea pipeline, targeting first gas in 2028 at 30 MMscfd rising to 40 MMscfd by 2030. It marks a low-capex, repeatable template using existing facilities to meet rising Thai demand. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump rejects Iranian Hormuz reopening offer, lifting Brent above $107/bbl as US-China pursue $60B reciprocal tariff cuts on farm goods and consumer items.
Trump rejects Iran Hormuz reopening plan; Brent jumps over 3%
John Power · Al Jazeera · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
President Trump dismissed Tehran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief and blockade easing. Brent crude rose more than 3% to top $107/bbl in early Asian trade as shipping through the key chokepoint remains constrained by the ongoing conflict. Read →
WTI, Brent surge after Trump rejects Iran Hormuz offer
OPIS / Morningstar / Dow Jones · Sun, Sep 28, 2026, 4:22 PM ET (or Sep 28)
November WTI rose over $2.90 to $95.35/bbl and Brent December gained $2.45 amid the rejection of Iran's Hormuz reopening proposal. Markets also monitor White House signals on possible diesel export measures as retail diesel averages $6.52/gallon. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Iran hits tanker in Hormuz, talks stall
X / @HormuzLetter · Mon, Sep 28
The Hormuz Letter reports Iran struck an oil tanker under US escort in the Strait of Hormuz, with a fire reported, following missile and drone launches from Qeshm Island. Traders on X under #OOTT are reacting to the escalation and lack of breakthrough in separate US-Iran mediator talks, with Araghchi returning to Tehran early. Oil prices see renewed upside risk as supply disruption fears return. Read →
Brent near $99 as oil rebounds
X / @anasalhajji · Mon, Sep 28
Anas Alhajji notes oil prices up about 1% with Brent close to $99/bbl amid ongoing Hormuz and Iran-related developments. #OOTT traders discuss tanker incidents, stalled diplomacy, and potential supply impacts. Energy markets remain volatile as geopolitical risks persist into late September. Read →
Grains pressured post US-China summit
X / @markettalkag · Mon, Sep 28
Market Talk reports grains and oilseeds starting the week under pressure due to trader disappointment over the US/China summit lacking immediate ag purchase commitments. Arlan Suderman of StoneX comments on the midday action. Agriculture traders watch for follow-up details on tariffs and market access. Read →
Commodities pressured by supply/demand
X / multiple traders · Mon, Sep 28
Peter Boockvar discusses why commodity prices could stay under pressure despite supply problems in energy, fertilizer, wheat, and copper. Strong demand persists in agriculture and AI data centers. Traders note mixed signals across the complex as the week begins. Read →
Uranium buyer defends long-term hold
X / multiple traders · Mon, Sep 28
A trader shares that uranium helped fund a house purchase at age 26 and rental properties, criticizing impatient sellers who took losses. Discussions in uranium circles reflect ongoing sentiment around long-term positioning amid price swings. Retail interest remains visible in commodity chats. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Kaneva on US diesel ban limits
Natasha Kaneva (J.P. Morgan) on At Any Rate podcast · Thu, Sep 25
A 30-day US diesel export ban plus Jones Act waiver would cut retail prices to $4.70/gal initially but stocks would rebuild fast. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
22%
-1pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 31
58%
-6pp w/w
Saudi East-West oil pipeline restarts by October 15
57%
+12pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by October 31
12%
-9pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
69%
+16pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
9%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
8%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
19%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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