Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 48 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Thu, Sep 24, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude up $2.21 (+2.1%) on persistent US-Iran diplomatic uncertainty and limited progress in talks. Xi meets Trump at the White House later today.
Dutch TTF up $2.99 (+4.2%) on European gas storage running below seasonal norms amid lingering winter demand concerns.
Silver down $0.82 (-1.3%) on stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields after hawkish Fed signals reinforced rate-hike expectations.
JKM down $0.32 (-1.2%) on easing Asian demand and narrowing arbitrage with European gas.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long deferred March 2027-December 2027 European diesel timespreads to capture upside from potential persistent refinery outages.
Dutch TTF up $2.99 (+4.2%) on European gas storage running below seasonal norms amid lingering winter demand concerns.
Silver down $0.82 (-1.3%) on stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields after hawkish Fed signals reinforced rate-hike expectations.
JKM down $0.32 (-1.2%) on easing Asian demand and narrowing arbitrage with European gas.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long deferred March 2027-December 2027 European diesel timespreads to capture upside from potential persistent refinery outages.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil edges lower as Iran open to diplomacy
Reuters · Thu, Sep 24, 1:17 AM ET
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, after climbing 4% in the previous session, as Iran said it remained open to diplomacy to end the US-Iran war, though the two countries remain far apart on ways to do so. Brent crude futures fell 94 cents, or 0.9%, to $102.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures eased 59 cents, or 0.7%, to $91.56. Read →
Copper snaps six-day rally on inflation fears
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 23, 3:27 PM ET
Copper retreated from close to a record as an upswing in oil prices and strong US economic data stoked concerns about higher US interest rates. The metal dropped 0.9% to close at $14,618 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, marking its first daily decline since Sep. 14. Read →
Gold futures lower on dollar, rate hike bets
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Wed, Sep 23, 12:31 PM ET
Gold futures are lower as the U.S. dollar gains amid higher U.S. interest-rate expectations. Gold for December delivery is off 1.4% in New York at $4,315.20 a troy ounce. Silver is down 2.2% at $65.04 a troy ounce. Read →
Oil falls on Saudi pipeline, Iran talks hopes
Giulia Petroni · Wall Street Journal · Wed, Sep 23, 9:17 AM ET
Oil prices fall in early European trading on hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East war and as Saudi Arabia began efforts to restart a critical pipeline. Brent crude slips 0.9% to $98.42 a barrel, while WTI futures are down 1.4% to $89.28 a barrel. Read →
US oil groups push back on diesel export ban
Financial Times · Wed, Sep 23
US oil industry groups say there is no ‘silver bullet’ to the fuel price crisis after President Trump signals willingness to halt diesel shipments abroad. The pushback comes as diesel prices hit record levels amid global supply strains. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 3US Natural Gas 3Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 4Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 3Coal 1Agriculture 2Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 2Environment 3Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 4Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Oil rebounds on Iran rhetoric and stalled diplomacy after six-day slide on Gulf supply gains.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 93.71 | +1.7% +1.55 |
+63.3% | +44.3% | +26.7% |
| Brent | 105.29 | +2.1% +2.21 |
+64.5% | +44.2% | +28.2% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.356 | +0.5% +0.016 |
+96.8% | +67.6% | +53.4% |
| Heating Oil | 4.712 | +1.7% +0.079 |
+122.2% | +94.2% | +107.9% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
47.25 | -1.9% -0.89 |
+232.1% +33.02 |
+146.9% +28.11 |
+163.7% +29.33 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
104.21 | +1.7% +1.76 |
+229.1% +72.54 |
+182.0% +67.25 |
+390.1% +82.94 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
66.23 | +0.0% -0.01 |
+230.5% +46.20 |
+164.2% +41.16 |
+248.0% +47.20 |
Oil turns lower as Middle East shipments and diplomacy stay in focus.
Bloomberg · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
Brent traded toward $102/bbl and WTI near $91 after Wednesday's surge amid mixed Hormuz transit signals. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted up to 17 million barrels sometimes transiting daily while Clarksons data showed lower recent volumes; Iranian President Pezeshkian reiterated openness to talks without yielding to threats or allowing navigation under sanctions. Diesel futures reacted to export ban speculation later denied by the White House. Read →
Oil holds near two-week lows as Gulf supplies improve and talks advance.
RTE · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Brent held near $99.41/bbl and WTI near $90.02/bbl on Wednesday near session lows after Tuesday's declines. Saudi Arabia restarted East-West pipeline flows to Yanbu and increased Hormuz loadings; a senior Iranian official told Reuters Hormuz could reopen in seven days if the US eases pressure and lifts port blockades. US crude inventories rose 1.8 million barrels in the week to Sept 18, adding to supply optimism. Read →
Oil falls $1 as Saudi pipeline restarts and Iraq boosts exports.
The Hindu Business Line / Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Brent dropped $1.09 to $98.16/bbl and WTI $1.50 to $89.01/bbl on Wednesday, marking six straight declines. Saudi Arabia restarted East-West pipeline operations and Iraq's oil minister said exports exceed 3 million bpd with Turkey route expansion planned. US crude stocks built 1.8 million barrels against analyst expectations for a draw, reinforcing the improved Middle East supply picture amid diplomatic hopes. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Futures reclaim $3 as Lower 48 output dips below 109 Bcf/d and short covering intensifies ahead of Thursday storage print.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.042 | +0.6% +0.019 |
-13.8% | +9.5% | -38.2% |
Natgas futures reclaim $3 on output dip, short covering.
Chris Newman · Natural Gas Intelligence · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Front-month futures added to Tuesday’s surge Wednesday, breaching $3 on production falling below 109 Bcf/d, bargain hunting and short covering ahead of the EIA storage report. The weakest power burn since Labor Day was outweighed by colder overnight forecasts adding heating demand signals. Speculator shorts sit at record levels. Read →
US LNG feedgas at 18.3 Bcf/d; Cove Point maintenance cuts demand.
Jacob Dick · Natural Gas Intelligence · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Deliveries to US LNG export terminals hit 18.3 Bcf/d Wednesday per NGI Entropic data, with seven-day average at 18.2 Bcf/d after Cove Point LNG annual maintenance removed 0.85 Bcf/d starting Saturday. September month-to-date averaged 18.7 Bcf/d, up from 17.9 Bcf/d in August. US LNG exports totaled 2.54 Mt in the week ended Sunday. Read →
Futures surge above $3 on short covering and output dip.
Kevin Dobbs · Natural Gas Intelligence · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
A dip in production, bargain hunting and short covering powered futures above $3 Wednesday as the market braced for a bullish storage print. Production readings showed output on track for an 11-week low near 109.8 Bcf/d. Traders positioned ahead of Thursday’s EIA report amid signs of tightening balances. Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane spot rose to 86.4¢/gal Sep 22 (+1.1¢ w/w) on export draws and inventory drawdown.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.250 | +0.7% +0.002 |
+5.5% | -0.3% | -35.0% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
0.846 | +2.3% +0.019 |
+37.2% | +19.1% | -33.7% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.264 | +1.7% +0.021 |
+69.6% | +41.0% | -13.7% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.454 | +2.4% +0.033 |
+87.0% | +57.1% | +1.0% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.049 | +2.4% +0.047 |
+74.8% | +56.4% | +21.2% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 5 | unch | +5 | -2 | -1 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 57 | +2 | +27 | +11 | -26 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -651 | -4 | -347 | -281 | -272 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -404 | +5 | -238 | -210 | -392 |
| C5 as % WTI | 92 | +1 | +6 | +7 | -4 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
EIA propane stocks · week ending Fri, Sep 18
A 1.2 mb draw took US propane stocks to 107.9 mb, 18.0 mb (20%) above the five-year average and 8.0 mb above a year ago. Exports ran 2,469 kb/d (+256 kb/d w/w) against production of 2,968 kb/d.
US stocks 107.9 mb -1.2 mb w/w | Year ago 99.9 mb | 5-yr avg 89.9 mb |
Gulf Coast 68.4 mb PADD 3 | Midwest 26.1 mb PADD 2 | Exports 2,469 kb/d +256 kb/d w/w |
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report · Full EIA report →
ATEX ethane flows double on Neches River ramp
East Daley Analytics · Tue, Sep 23, 2026
FERC data show ATEX ethane throughput hit 218 Mb/d in 3Q25, up 107% from 2Q25 and above 190 Mb/d nameplate. Enterprise’s Neches River Phase 1 startup in mid-July near Beaumont pulled Appalachian ethane south into Gulf Coast export capacity, with cargoes ramping quickly in September. The integrated EPD system also captured some Northeast volumes displaced by the Shell Monaca cracker outage. Read →
Targa Galena Park outage aids EPD, ET exports
East Daley Analytics · Mon, Sep 22, 2026
Targa declared force majeure March 18 at Galena Park after a low-ethane propane unit failure requiring full compressor skid replacement, slowing loadings at a terminal handling nearly 20% of US LPG exports. The outage risks stranding barrels at Mont Belvieu, pressuring local prices while international benchmarks stay firm and widening arbitrage for Enterprise and Energy Transfer to capture displaced propane volumes. Read →
Mont Belvieu propane at 86.4¢/gal Sep 22
The Fill Line / EIA · Tue, Sep 23, 2026
EIA daily spot price reached $0.864/gal on Sep 22, up from $0.853 prior week and 22.9% above the 5-year median. The benchmark reflects FOB Mont Belvieu values amid ongoing export loadings and a counterseasonal inventory draw reported in the Sep 18 EIA weekly data (US propane/propylene stocks at 107.87 MMbbl, down 1.22 MMbbl w/w). Read →
US propane stocks fall 1.22 MMbbl to 107.87 MMbbl
EIA / The Fill Line · Tue, Sep 23, 2026
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for week ended Sep 18 shows US propane/propylene inventories drew 1.22 MMbbl to 107.87 MMbbl, with PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) down to 68.434 MMbbl. The draw aligns with continued export growth and supports firmer Mont Belvieu pricing ahead of the heating season. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises 3 to 4% to €74/MWh on Iran supply-risk headlines amid 70% EU storage; JKM holds $25 to 26/MMBtu premium.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
75.00 | +4.2% +2.99 |
+166.3% | +131.1% | +6.8% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
25.01 | +4.2% +1.00 |
+166.3% | +131.1% | +6.8% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
25.73 | -1.2% -0.32 |
+167.8% | +128.1% | -6.4% |
EU gas storage · gas day Tue, Sep 22
EU gas storage is 70.2% full, 795 TWh in store, 15.7 points below the five-year average for this date and 11.7 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 57.0%.
EU full 70.2% +0.10 pts d/d | Year ago 82.0% | 5-yr avg 85.9% same date |
Germany 57.0% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
MET chief urges more long-term LNG deals to hedge soaring European prices
Bloomberg · Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 3:03 AM ET
MET Group head warned Europe must secure more long-term LNG contracts as Middle East conflict has cut 20% of global LNG flows and doubled European gas prices this year. Asian buyers are taking more flexible spot cargoes, intensifying winter competition with Europe. The call highlights structural vulnerability in Europe's post-pipeline supply model. Read →
IGU: markets price tight gas supplies into 2027 on Iran disruption
Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
International Gas Union secretary general said futures curves now embed elevated prices and risks through next summer due to Gulf LNG constraints. Europe is outbidding Asia for cargoes to refill storage while January Russian LNG import ban adds uncertainty. The shift marks a move from expecting post-winter easing to sustained tightness. Read →
TTF jumps up to 4.2% on Iranian President statements
sofokleousin.gr / marketnews.gr · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
Dutch TTF futures rose as much as 4.2% to around €74.67/MWh after Iranian President Pezeshkian statements rejecting surrender to the US while leaving dialogue open. The move reflects ongoing geopolitical premium on European benchmark amid tight storage and winter refill needs. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM files FERC backstop auction plan to close 6.8 GW capacity gap driven by data-center demand.
PJM files FERC plan for backstop auction to fill 6.8 GW shortfall
Utility Dive · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
PJM filed a proposal at FERC for a one-time reliability backstop auction Sept. 30, Oct. 21 to procure capacity and address a 6.8 GW shortfall from its prior base auction. The gap stems primarily from surging data-center load forecasts, with PJM projecting up to 70 GW of additional large-load demand by 2038. The plan includes a bilateral matchmaking process between data centers and suppliers, with costs capped at $555/MW-day and allocated across zones; bilateral deals could reduce the auction target. Read →
ERCOT targets Dec. 10 finish for governor’s data-center audit
Utility Dive · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
ERCOT plans to finish Gov. Greg Abbott’s comprehensive verification and audit of data-center and large-load interconnection requests by Dec. 10. The review covers 300 projects in Batch Zero (75 MW+), plus community-impact assessments for 25 MW+ facilities, examining self-generation, water use, ownership, and grid reliance. The audit pauses advancement of the Batch Zero transmission study and new interconnections amid a 474 GW queue (90% data centers), more than five times ERCOT’s record peak demand. Read →
MISO proposes reliability rules for large loads above 50 MW
Utility Dive · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
MISO filed a FERC proposal imposing interconnection reliability requirements on large loads (>50 MW) and computational loads (≥25 MW IT demand). Requirements cover visibility (data, modeling, real-time telemetry, forecasts), ramp-rate limits on demand changes, and ride-through performance during disturbances to prevent sudden disconnections. The framework targets data centers and similar facilities to improve planning, operations, and system stability amid rapid load growth. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Cerrejón rail attack and India's critical plant stocks tighten Atlantic and seaborne thermal supply.
Cerrejón rail hit by explosives, sixth attack in 2026
Luis Jaime Acosta · Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 1:21 PM ET
Explosives damaged Glencore’s Cerrejón railway near Uribia, Colombia on Sept 22, suspending rail operations while mine production continues. This marks the sixth infrastructure attack on the site in 2026. The 150 km line to Puerto Bolívar exports thermal coal, so the disruption risks tightening Atlantic basin supply and supporting API2 pricing. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Grains slump 0.5 to 1.25% on harvest pressure and stalled China buying ahead of Trump-Xi summit.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 530 | +0.2% +1 |
+20.4% | +24.5% | +0.6% |
| Wheat | 710 | +0.1% +1 |
+39.9% | +34.6% | -2.0% |
| Soybeans | 1,325 | +0.5% +7 |
+28.6% | +30.9% | +3.1% |
| Sugar | 18.84 | +0.2% +0.04 |
+25.5% | +19.5% | -1.4% |
| Coffee | 275.7 | -0.1% -0.2 |
-20.9% | -25.8% | +41.9% |
| Cocoa | 5,553 | +0.5% +25 |
-8.4% | -19.8% | +114.3% |
| Cotton | 83.19 | +0.4% +0.30 |
+29.0% | +29.9% | -14.4% |
Soybeans, corn drop on stalled China sales pre-summit
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Corn eased as much as 1.7% and soybeans fell with no new U.S. sales reported to China this week. China released domestic soybean reserves to free space for imports, but markets priced in disappointment ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Read →
Arabica hits three-month low as crops improve
Reuters via Business Recorder · Wed, Sep 24, 2026
Arabica coffee fell 0.55% to $2.7080 per lb on better Brazilian and Vietnamese outlooks. Raw sugar eased 0.3% to 17.54 cents per lb while cocoa continued lower on the 2025/26 global surplus despite some Ivory Coast dryness concerns. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper slips on firmer dollar and Fed hike bets after six-day rally, while Shanghai inventories hit three-year low.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,887 | -0.0% -2 |
+19.9% | +43.7% | +57.5% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,606 | -0.6% -87 |
+15.0% | +47.6% | +53.1% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,194 | -0.0% -1 |
+7.3% | +24.5% | +10.1% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,520 | +0.2% +8 |
+17.2% | +28.0% | +15.3% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,500 | -0.7% -119 |
-2.6% | +8.6% | -19.7% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,149 | -0.7% -14 |
-2.5% | +3.1% | +5.4% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
54,269 | -0.4% -205 |
+29.2% | +60.0% | +58.8% |
Shanghai copper stocks drop to lowest since 2023
Michael Kern · Oilprice.com · Tue, Sep 23, 2026
LME three-month copper settled at $14,783/t on Sep 22, up 0.8% and $92 below the Sep 10 record. Shanghai cathode inventories fell to 43,900 t, the lowest since 2023, as fabricators restock ahead of holidays and refineries plan maintenance. LME cash copper flipped to a $62/t premium to three-month, signaling physical tightness. Read →
LME copper drops 0.6% to $14,655/t on dollar strength
Reuters via Business Recorder · Wed, Sep 24, 2026
Benchmark three-month LME copper fell 0.6% to $14,655/t on Sep 23 after testing $14,833/t. A stronger dollar and profit-taking capped gains following the prior rally. Comex inventories hold 69% of global exchange copper, while LME cash traded at a $76/t premium. Read →
Nickel rebounds on Indonesia output cuts
Shanghai Metals Market · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 126,725 yuan/t this week, up 1,625 yuan/t WoW. El Nino drought and expected NPI disruptions at IMIP supported prices. LME nickel 3M rose about 1.6% WoW amid China-US talks on critical minerals. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures hover near one-month lows at CNY 710/t as ample Australian shipments and high port stocks outweigh pre-Golden Week restocking support.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
94.1 | +0.1% +0.1 |
-6.5% | -1.7% | -11.7% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
402 | -0.3% -1 |
+2.1% | +3.8% | -44.2% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
433 | -0.5% -2 |
+5.1% | +5.5% | -42.8% |
Iron ore futures near one-month lows on weak China demand.
Jam Kaimo Samonte · Trading Economics · Wed, Sep 24, 2026
Iron ore futures in China traded around CNY 710 per ton, near one-month lows. Ample Australian shipments above 21 million tons week-on-week and rising port arrivals from Australia and Brazil added to supply pressure. Chinese steel mills face widening losses from high coking coal prices amid Shanxi mine suspensions, while softer construction and manufacturing demand weighs on ferrous purchases; prices hold some support from expected pre-Golden Week restocking. Read →
BHP, Baowu extend five-year steel decarbonisation MoU.
BHP · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
BHP and China Baowu Steel renewed their steel decarbonisation partnership via a new five-year MoU, extending collaboration since 2020. Focus areas include modified blast furnace technologies using Pilbara ores targeting at least 30% lower CO2 intensity versus conventional operations, potentially exceeding 80% with carbon storage and renewables, plus continued DRI trials with Pilbara ore processed in Baowu’s planned demonstration electric smelting furnace. Prior hydrogen DRI trials produced iron at 50% of blast-furnace CO2 intensity and supported near-zero emissions potential in electric smelting tests. Read →
Imported iron ore margins turn negative on costs.
SMM · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
Average imported iron ore margin fell to -0.73 yuan/mt from 1.82 yuan/mt, driven by higher lump premiums and rising Brazilian freight rates. As of Sep 23, blast furnace operating rate across 242 mills stood at 88.76%, down 0.17pp week-on-week, with daily hot metal output at 2.3943 million mt, down 4,800 mt. Deeper mill losses reduce production incentives, with more maintenance scheduled and hot metal output expected to decline further from October. Read →
Chinese mills build imported iron ore stocks to 7-month high.
Mysteel · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
China’s integrated steelmakers built up inventories of imported iron ore sintering fines to a seven-month high ahead of national holidays, per Mysteel’s latest survey. Daily consumption of the feedstock retreated slightly. Blast furnace mills continue pre-holiday restocking even as overall demand indicators remain subdued. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Stronger dollar and hawkish Fed signals from hot US PMI data pressure gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices lower today.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,297 | -0.5% -21 |
-1.0% | +14.0% | +145.3% |
| Silver | 64.15 | -1.3% -0.82 |
-8.5% | +43.5% | +186.5% |
| Platinum | 1,754 | +0.3% +5 |
-13.8% | +14.6% | +78.8% |
| Palladium | 1,268 | -0.1% -2 |
-22.2% | +0.3% | -35.0% |
Gold holds steady; silver falls, platinum flat, palladium rises slightly in Asia
Emirates News Agency / WAM · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
Spot gold was little changed at $4,285.31/oz and December futures at $4,321.40/oz in early Asian trade Thursday. Silver fell 0.6% to $64.08/oz while platinum held at $1,749.47/oz and palladium edged up 0.2% to $1,261.95/oz. The moves reflect broad pressure on the complex from a firmer dollar and shifting rate expectations. Read →
Gold falls nearly 1% on stronger dollar and hawkish Fed comments.
Reuters via Business Recorder · Wed, Sep 24, 2026
Spot gold dropped 0.9% to $4,316.59/oz and December futures fell 0.5% to $4,353.30/oz amid a stronger dollar at a two-month high and hawkish Fed remarks reinforcing tighter policy views. Silver fell 2.7% to $65.28/oz, platinum lost 2.3% to $1,790.48/oz and palladium declined 2% to $1,280.72/oz. Geopolitical comments on Iran added to volatility but did not offset the macro headwinds. Read →
US services and manufacturing PMI beat forecasts, sending gold lower.
Kitco News · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Flash S&P Global US composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, well above the 55.2 consensus, with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0. Spot gold fell to session lows near $4,282.81/oz, down about 1.74% on the day as stronger US data reinforced rate-hike bets. The acceleration in business activity to a five-year high weighed on safe-haven demand across precious metals. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US-China trade truce extended to Jan 10 amid ongoing rare earth supply lags and new $500M Glencore stockpile deal.
Glencore joins US VaultCo stockpile with $500M EXIM backing
AFP via 24newshd.tv · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Glencore received a $500 million commitment from the US Export-Import Bank to source, procure, and deliver critical minerals including rare earths into VaultCo, the public-private partnership executing Project Vault. The move adds the Swiss trader as a fourth supplier alongside Hartree, Mercuria, and Traxys to build strategic inventories for US industry under the $12 billion initiative. It advances friend-shoring by leveraging Glencore's global network to reduce China dependence for materials used in EVs, defense, and electronics. Read →
Rare earth stocks drop on US-China truce extension to Jan 10
Roushni Nair · Investing.com · Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a two-month extension of the Busan Agreement truce until January 10, 2027, to allow more time for broader economic talks during Xi's US visit. Asian rare earth shares including Lynas (-2%), Shenghe (-2.1%), and others fell as the extension reduces near-term escalation risk but leaves underlying supply issues unresolved. US officials noted China lags on rare earth delivery commitments, with Chinese rare earth magnet shipments to the US down 20% month-on-month in August per customs data. Read →
US-China truce extended to Jan 10 amid rare earth talks
The New York Times · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
The US and China extended their trade truce by two months to January 10 following talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The extension postpones potential new China rare earth export limits and maintains flows of critical minerals needed by US factories for cars, semiconductors, and defense equipment. It occurs as Xi arrives for a state visit with Trump, keeping rare earth supplies and tariffs central to negotiations while China continues case-by-case licensing for heavy rare earths like dysprosium. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · VLCC rates hit record $1.2M/day on Middle East-Asia routes amid Iran war disruptions and vessel shortages.
Asia shipping stocks rise 17% this quarter on freight surge
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 23, 7:00 PM ET
A Goldman Sachs gauge of Asia shipping stocks climbed about 17% this quarter as geopolitical tensions tighten vessel supply and lift container liner earnings outlooks, outpacing semiconductor stocks that fell 18%. Middle East war disruptions and pre-tariff cargo rushes support the rally, with analysts expecting further gains. Shanghai Containerized Freight Index hit its highest since July 2024 after eight straight weekly rises. Read →
BDI falls 0.1% to 3,430 points on Wednesday
Luisa Carvalho · Trading Economics · Wed, Sep 23, 2:31 PM ET
The Baltic Dry Index edged down 0.1% to 3,430 points Wednesday, remaining near its highest since September 14. Capesize fell 0.5% to 5,861 points while Panamax rose 1.5% to 2,333 points and Supramax gained 0.1% to 1,778 points. The index had risen to a one-week high of 3,432 the prior session on firmer cargo activity. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ambassadors agree to retain more EUA permits in MSR to buffer against price spikes.
EU backs MSR tweaks to retain spare EUAs against spikes
Kate Abnett · Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
EU ambassadors agreed Wednesday to stop cancelling excess CO2 permits above 400 million in the Market Stability Reserve until 2030, keeping them as a buffer instead. The change responds to requests from Poland and Italy to limit ETS contributions to electricity costs amid fuel-price surges from the Iran conflict. The MSR will still release permits if prices more than double; final rules now go to Parliament negotiations. Read →
Newsom authorizes California-Washington carbon market linkage
Governor of California · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
California Governor Gavin Newsom authorized the formal findings required to advance linkage of the state’s Cap-and-Invest program with Washington’s carbon market during Climate Week NYC. The move builds on the June linkage agreement with Québec and Washington; CARB will now begin the public regulatory process ahead of joint operations targeted for 2027. The expanded tri-jurisdictional market aims to deliver more stable prices, deeper emissions cuts, and billions in climate investments. Read →
EUAs end slightly lower after September options expiry
Alessandro Vitelli · Carbon Pulse · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
European carbon allowances traded in narrow ranges Wednesday ahead of and after September options expiry, finishing modestly lower in a very tight post-expiry range. Prices had moved in two distinct bands during the session amid light positioning. No major fundamental driver emerged beyond routine expiry mechanics and energy-market moves. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC Chair Selig pushes mass tokenization and 24/7 trading prep as RWA commodity perps expand on Solana and Hyperliquid.
Solana tokenized commodities hit $87M weekly volume
Crypto Briefing · Tue, Sep 23, 2026
Tokenized commodities trading volume on Solana reached $87 million over the past week, with Raydium capturing about 70% of activity. Supply of tokenized commodities on the network hit roughly $50 million by late August, driven by PAXG and Dominion Market’s SILV tokenized silver token that posted over $4 million in 24-hour volume shortly after launch. Tokenized gold supply on Solana grew 689% year-over-year through August, while GMTrade added 24/7 perpetual contracts on gold, silver and WTI crude oil in early September. Read →
CFTC chair: prepare for mass tokenization and 24/7
CoinCentral · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated at the September 22 U.S. Treasury Market Conference that markets must prepare for mass tokenization, stablecoin integration and 24/7 trading as blockchain and AI reshape finance. He highlighted prior steps including expanding eligible tokenized collateral to stablecoins from national trust banks and seeking comments on continuous trading suitability by asset class. Selig emphasized principles-based rules rather than piecemeal retrofits amid ongoing tokenized equities pilots and RWA growth. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Gas project FIDs and seismic starts in Nigeria, Trinidad, Colombia and Greece drive corporate activity amid supply pushes.
TotalEnergies, AMNI sanction Ima gas field FID in Nigeria
Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 7:44 AM ET
TotalEnergies and AMNI took FID on the Ima offshore gas field on OML 112/117 near Bonny Island. The $1.1 billion project targets first gas in 2028 at a plateau of 350 MMcf/d, supplying about one-third of the gas needed for Nigeria LNG Train 7 expansion that lifts capacity to 30 mtpa from 22 mtpa. Read →
Shell, NGC finalize Aphrodite gas terms, unlock project
Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 6:24 PM ET
Shell and Trinidad's NGC agreed commercial terms for gas from the Aphrodite offshore field, ending a pricing dispute and enabling development. First production is expected in Q2 2027; the deal delivers 400% more value to NGC than prior terms and adds modest supply to support LNG and petrochemicals amid declining local output. Read →
Petrobras eyes Sirius Colombia gas in 2027 to 2031 plan
Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 6:54 PM ET
Petrobras E&P director Sylvia Anjos said the Sirius offshore gas project in Colombia could enter the company's 2027 to 2031 business plan production curve if environmental licensing advances. Petrobras operates with 44.4% alongside Ecopetrol; the subsea pipeline design avoids a platform and requires final community consultations. Read →
Glencore wins $500M EXIM nod for US minerals reserve
Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 12:38 PM ET
Glencore received a $500 million commitment from the US Export-Import Bank via VaultCo to source, procure and deliver critical minerals for a strategic US reserve. The public-private partnership aims to strengthen domestic supply chains and reduce disruption risks for American industry. Read →
Chevron to launch Greece offshore seismic by year-end
Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 8:01 AM ET
Chevron will begin seismic surveys in the Ionian Sea and south of the Peloponnese and Crete by end-2026, the Greek energy ministry said. The work follows Chevron's 70% stake in one block and leadership of a consortium on three deepwater blocks awarded for gas exploration. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US diesel export ban talk drives energy policy focus as White House denies flat ban amid record prices.
White House denies diesel export ban plan after futures drop 4%.
Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
US ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures fell 4% to $4.7437/gallon after a Politico report on a possible 90-day export ban. The White House called the report incorrect, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying any supply boost would be voluntary and a ban would not work as it could raise gasoline and jet fuel prices. Record diesel at $6.52/gallon stems from wars cutting Russian, Saudi and UAE exports, pressuring US refiners and farm/transport sectors. Read →
Trump admin weighs 90-day diesel export ban to ease prices.
Ben Lefebvre, Meredith Lee Hill, Scott Waldman · POLITICO · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
The Trump administration prepared a 90-day diesel export ban plan despite internal splits and oil industry opposition to lower record prices ahead of midterms. Trump backed the idea Tuesday while Energy Secretary Wright and others warned it would cut refinery runs and raise gasoline/jet fuel prices. Farm-state Republicans like Sen. Chuck Grassley pushed the measure as diesel hit $6.52/gallon from Iran and Ukraine war supply cuts. Read →
White House rules out diesel export ban despite price surge.
Tsvetana Paraskova · OilPrice.com · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
The White House denied considering a flat diesel export ban, clarifying mixed signals from Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent as prices topped $6.50/gallon. Energy Secretary Wright said the focus is voluntary measures to increase US diesel supply without cutting gasoline or jet fuel output. Industry groups like API warned restrictions would force refiners to cut runs, worsening global diesel shortages from Middle East and Russia supply disruptions. Read →
USTR sets FY2027 raw cane sugar import quotas at 1.117M tons.
USTR · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
USTR allocated the remaining 55,993 metric tons raw value of the FY2027 WTO raw cane sugar TRQ (total 1,117,195 MTRV) to specific countries including Argentina (2,915), Dominican Republic (11,931) and Philippines (9,151). Allocations take effect October 1, 2026, with certificates required and conditions for net sugar importers. This follows the July allocation of 1,061,202 MTRV and maintains minimum WTO commitments for US sugar imports. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil rises on no US-Iran progress, Hormuz tensions
X / multiple traders · Thu, Sep 24
Traders on X note Brent crude up over 2% Thursday, approaching $109 resistance, as US-Iran talks show zero progress and no navigation freedom through the Strait of Hormuz due to blockade and sanctions. #OOTT accounts highlight Iranian statements suggesting conflict could expand, driving buying as diplomatic hopes fade. Read →
Aramco keeps Japan crude flows, studies new routes
X / @finsquawk_ · Thu, Sep 24
FinSquawk reports Aramco CEO confirming continued crude supply to Japan per Nikkei, while studying fourth and fifth routes for oil shipments. #OOTT traders see this as a signal of supply chain resilience amid Middle East disruptions. Read →
Funds rotate into oil from equities and gold
X / @Goldhedge79 · Thu, Sep 24
@Goldhedge79 notes investors who expected Iranian surrender are now moving capital from stocks and gold into oil. Pezeshkian’s UN speech is cited as neutralizing prior price-lowering reports, pushing Brent toward $105. Read →
Iran signals possible wider conflict escalation
X / @staunovo · Thu, Sep 24
Commodity analyst @staunovo highlights Iranian official Safavi statement via FARS that conflict with US could expand further, potentially reaching the Indian Ocean. #OOTT community sees this as heightening geopolitical supply risk for energy markets. Read →
r/oil traders discuss Iran talks, China airline support
r/oil · Wed, Sep 23
Retail traders in the daily thread analyze stalled US-Iran talks, China allowing Iranian airlines, and tanker incidents, weighing backwardation and supply shock duration against diplomatic signals. Positioning and refinery impacts are hot topics. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Diesel at record highs amid shortages
Bart Melek, TD Securities on BNN Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 22
Global diesel shortage likely to last into 2027 as storage tanks drain. Watch/Listen →
Energy stocks positioned as market leader
John Stephenson, Granite Point Research on BNN Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 21
Crude oil likely to remain elevated around US$100 per barrel through year-end. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
20%
+3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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