Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Sep 12, 2026
▶Listen · the 2-minute market briefToday's markets in two minutes. Tap to play
Prefer audio only? Listen here.
This slot is empty today. Take a day from $250 →
Downey's Take on the Past Week
Brent $104.61, up $8.33 (+8.7%) and WTI $100.05, up $8.57 (+9.4%) on escalating Middle East shipping attacks tightening supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
Coffee down $40.0 (-12.3%) on expectations of higher Brazilian arabica supply with record crop progress and planned deliveries to ICE warehouses rebuilding exchange stocks.
Dutch TTF up $7.57 (+10.5%) on Middle East supply disruption risks boosting European natural gas prices amid low storage levels and winter stocking needs.
Propane up $0.048 (+6.1%) on the crude oil surge lifting linked energy prices despite weak domestic fundamentals.
Cotton up $4.95 (+6.0%) on stronger crude oil, worsening US crop conditions, and positioning ahead of the USDA WASDE report.
N-Butane up $0.059 (+4.9%) on the crude oil surge lifting linked energy prices.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long European diesel March 2027-December 2027 timespreads to hedge geopolitical risk as refinery outages sustain tightness.
Coffee down $40.0 (-12.3%) on expectations of higher Brazilian arabica supply with record crop progress and planned deliveries to ICE warehouses rebuilding exchange stocks.
Dutch TTF up $7.57 (+10.5%) on Middle East supply disruption risks boosting European natural gas prices amid low storage levels and winter stocking needs.
Propane up $0.048 (+6.1%) on the crude oil surge lifting linked energy prices despite weak domestic fundamentals.
Cotton up $4.95 (+6.0%) on stronger crude oil, worsening US crop conditions, and positioning ahead of the USDA WASDE report.
N-Butane up $0.059 (+4.9%) on the crude oil surge lifting linked energy prices.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long European diesel March 2027-December 2027 timespreads to hedge geopolitical risk as refinery outages sustain tightness.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Hormuz tanker flows slumped to seven vessels on Thursday, well below the 10-day average of 15 amid renewed US-Iran clashes.
The angle · Own front-month Brent outright long; backwardation should steepen on persistent Gulf export shortfalls.
LME copper stocks stabilized near 235kt while Chinese-origin metal reached 44% of available inventory and the curve flipped to mild contango.
The angle · Sell LME cash against three-month; contango should widen if US tariff decision delays or softens.
Black Sea grain exports from Russia and Ukraine dropped sharply after Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk and other terminals, prompting Russia to zero export duties on wheat.
The angle · Buy Matif wheat against CBOT; European origin premium should widen versus ample US supply.
European TTF front-month hit highs near €80/MWh this week on low EU storage at 67% versus 84% five-year average and constrained LNG flows through Hormuz.
The angle · Long TTF winter strip against summer; backwardation should steepen on winter refill shortfalls.
US natural gas COT readings reached a rare 337-report bullish extreme while storage builds ran larger than expected amid LNG export maintenance.
The angle · Sell Henry Hub front-month outright; contango should flatten on excess summer supply.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These are live oil and natural gas prices from Hyperliquid's 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
|
WTI Crude · weekend
$98.78
-1.27 -1.27%
vs Fri close $100.05
|
Nat Gas · weekend
$2.82
-0.01 -0.52%
vs Fri close $2.83
|
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, September 11, 2026
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF | 79.52 | +10.5% +7.57 |
+182.4% | +147.3% | +29.8% |
| WTI Crude | 100.05 | +9.4% +8.57 |
+74.2% | +58.1% | +42.0% |
| Brent | 104.61 | +8.7% +8.33 |
+71.9% | +55.1% | +42.3% |
| Corn | 532 | +3.9% +20 |
+20.8% | +25.7% | +7.1% |
| Soybeans | 1,299 | +0.4% +5 |
+26.1% | +24.6% | +2.1% |
| Gold | 4,409 | -0.5% -21 |
+1.9% | +19.7% | +146.0% |
| Copper | 14,436 | -0.7% -108 |
+16.3% | +40.7% | +50.1% |
| Silver | 65.19 | -1.3% -0.86 |
-7.1% | +53.3% | +174.4% |
| Cocoa | 5,913 | -2.8% -169 |
-2.5% | -21.6% | +120.9% |
| Nat Gas | 2.831 | -4.8% -0.144 |
-23.2% | -7.0% | -45.9% |
Commodity Research
The week's most interesting commodity research.
Oil demand falls 2.5 mb/d in 2026 · IEA · Sep 11
Prolonged Hormuz impasse tightens markets; supply drops 5.7 mb/d, demand declines 2.5 mb/d, recovery slips to 2027. Read →
• Supply Gulf output stays shut
• Demand Middle distillates and feedstocks hit hardest in Asia
• Inventories 507 mb cumulative draw since Feb
Brent averages $90/bbl in 2H26 · EIA · Sep 9
Hormuz constraints persist; inventories keep drawing, Brent holds near $90 then eases to $74 in 2027. Read →
• Prices Elevated on 400 mb inventory draw YTD
• Distillates US stocks below 5-yr low, exports rise
• Production ME rises gradually but below pre-conflict until 2Q27
Brent to $90 in 2026, $85 in 2027 · HSBC · Sep 9
Disrupted new normal in Hormuz; persistently impaired flows keep market tight until mid-2027. Read →
• Flows Settled 30% of pre-conflict, rise to 8 mb/d YE26
• Scenarios Stalemate pushes to $120
• Balance Market rebalances only around mid-2027
Dec Brent to $85, 2027 avg $80 · Goldman · Sep 8
Mideast shipping disruptions assumed into 2027; $120 upside if Gulf output stays 4 mb/d below pre-war. Read →
• Base Dec Brent $85, 2027 avg $80
• Upside >$120 if 2027 Gulf shortfall 4 mb/d
• Hedge Long natgas and diesel for bigger shocks
H2 2026 baseline to $83, 2027 $75 · BofA · Sep 8
Baseline assumes gradual normalization; prolonged skirmishes push Brent to $95 to 120 by year-end. Read →
• Baseline H2 $83, 2027 $75
• Risk Skirmishes curb flows into YE
• Normalization Gradual if conflict avoided
Prices lifted into 2027 on deficits · UBS · Sep 12
Mine disruptions deepen supply deficits; refined output growth cut, demand from EVs/power holds firm. Read →
• Supply Refined growth lowered to 1.2% 2025, 2.2% 2026
• Demand +2.8% 2025 to 26 from EVs, grids, data centers
• Deficits Inventories falling
2026 demand growth cut to 0.38 mb/d · OPEC · Sep 10
Fifth straight cut to 2026 demand growth; 2027 outlook lifted as market adjusts to higher prices and disruptions. Read →
• 2026 Demand growth 0.38 mb/d, down from 0.58
• 2027 Growth raised vs prior
• Drivers Smaller consumption impact from Iran war than peers
Energy system less integrated, regionalised · Barclays · Sep 8
Wars and fragmentation drive redundancy and diversity in oil/gas supplies; system now more regional and costly. Read →
• Drivers Ukraine war, Iran conflict, trade fragmentation
• Shift Redundancy and diversity newly prioritized
• Outcome Less integrated, more expensive global energy
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
Robert Friedland on the World's Monumental Shortage of Copper · Odd Lots · Sep 12
We aren't even close to having enough copper for what's coming from data centers, EVs and reindustrialization. Listen →
• Copper demand surging 15% this year on AI grid needs
• US tariffs on refined copper adding to price pressure
• Mines take years to open amid resource nationalism
US-Venezuela oil deal unlocks 65B barrels · Columbia Energy Exchange · Sep 8
The deal could turn NABEP into one of the world’s largest corporate oil-reserve holders with Chevron and ENI investing billions. Listen →
• NABEP gets 35% US gov equity stake in 65B+ barrels
• Chevron pledges $7B to double Venezuelan output
• Grid rehab by GE Vernova tied to production ramp
AI agent boom to disrupt white-collar work · MacroVoices · Sep 10
Running cheap open-source AI on your own hardware will massively disrupt white-collar jobs while driving huge data-center debt and energy demand. Listen →
• Hyperscalers loaded $1.65T debt in 5 years on data centers
• Open-source models accelerate enterprise AI adoption
• Energy for AI compute could hit 30 TW at global scale
China Takes Oil To $100 & AI Hits The Grid · Sankey Research · Sep 8
China is back buying crude, knocking on $100 despite more oil coming out of Hormuz, with Shanghai crude at a big premium to Brent. Listen →
• China banned product exports early in crisis
• Refining margins improving and inventories restocking
• AI grid demand adds to diesel and power tightness
Demand for power generation and grid equipment is booming. Can the industry keep up? · The Energy Gang · Sep 1
AI data centers are the critical constraint on how much additional electricity can be made available, driving massive orders for generation and grid gear. Listen →
• 220 GW of new US data-center demand in pipeline
• 183 GW already backed by firm commitments
• Industry racing to scale transformers and switchgear
Crisis, M&A and Trading: communicating commodities with Will Medvei · HC Commodities Podcast (Paul Chapman) · Sep 8
Crises, outsized returns, accusations of environmental damage and missing cargoes make corporate communications uniquely difficult in the sector. Listen →
• M&A activity accelerating amid price swings
• Trading desks facing regulatory and reputational risks
• Stakeholder messaging must handle geopolitical shocks
Commodity Intelligence
Split 2-1 positive on oil; Claude flipped bearish on copper this week.
The same questions to three frontier AIs, every week. Unedited verdicts · opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Where the panel stands
| Oil | ▲ Up | 2 of 3 AIs | Up 4th straight week |
| Copper | ▲ Up | 2 of 3 AIs | Up 6th straight week |
| US Nat Gas | ▼ Down | 2 of 3 AIs | Down 6th straight week |
| Gold | ▲ Up | all 3 AIs | Up unanimous 6 weeks |
Why they disagree on oil
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI
▲ Up OPEC+ cuts tighten supply amid resilient demand
Gemini · Google
▲ Up Geopolitical tensions, persistent OPEC+ supply discipline, and robust summer demand outlook will push prices higher.
Claude · Anthropic
▼ Down Demand fears from tariff-driven slowdown outweigh OPEC cuts; macro headwinds crushing risk appetite.
Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe free →
Hedge smarter, not harder.
Brought to you by BoxWood · The AI-powered programmatic hedge booking system for commodity producers, consumers, refiners, hedge funds, and trading houses. See a live demo →
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated from public sources; every item links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe