Morgan Downey's Commodity News
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Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 35 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Tue, Sep 8, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude up $2.43 (+2.5%) on attacks halting Saudi energy facilities and escalating US-Iran tensions threatening Strait of Hormuz flows.
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis hit on Aramco oil facilities in Jizan on Monday, September 7. Jizan hosts a 400,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery (one of Saudi Arabia’s larger plants). This refinery was attacked earlier this year also.
This (Tues Sep 8) morning the Houthis also attacked energy facilities including electricity in cities in southern Saudi Arabia along the border with Yemen, wounding more than 70 people.
Dutch TTF up $3.35 (+4.7%) on Middle East supply disruption risks lifting European gas prices.
Wheat up $17 (+2.4%) on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks and renewed Black Sea export risks.
Zinc (SHFE $/mt) up $62 (+1.8%) on broader base metals strength from supply tightness and demand signals.
Sugar up $0.26 (+1.4%) on shrinking EU supplies and El Niño threats to India/Thailand output.
Copper up $202 (+1.4%) on US tariff expectations and tight supplies outside the US driving record prices.
Kicker: Goldman recommends short 26Q3-Dec28 Brent timespread on the 2026 oil surplus from the final supply wave.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Copper hits fresh record on supply woes, tariff fears
Benchmark three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange hit an all-time high of $14,533 a metric ton before closing up 0.9% at $14,510, surpassing the January record amid mine supply concerns and fears of new U.S. tariffs on refined metal. Prices have risen 16% this year as buyers scramble for the metal essential to data centers, renewables and grids.
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Houthis strike Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan
Verity Ratcliffe, Arash Massoudi and Andrew England ·
Financial Times · Mon, Sep 7, 2026
Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco oil infrastructure in Jizan near the Yemeni border on Monday, wounding dozens and prompting Saudi authorities to halt operations at several energy sites; the 400,000 bpd refinery and related plants were targeted in an escalation similar to prior strikes. Oil prices climbed with Brent up over 1% as the attack heightened supply disruption risks in the region.
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Oil surges to multi-week highs after Saudi strikes
Brent crude rose to as high as $99.22 a barrel, its highest since July 24, and WTI reached $94.60 after Houthis struck Saudi energy facilities, wounding 73 people, while Iran threatened further retaliation and slowed Hormuz traffic. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast by $5 to $85, assuming prolonged Middle East disruptions into 2027.
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European gas nears three-year high on winter scramble
Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures climbed near €74/MWh, the highest in more than three years, as traders rushed to replenish storage ahead of winter amid ongoing LNG supply concerns from Middle East disruptions. Storage levels lag seasonal norms while traders await clarity on an Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping deal.
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European gas jumps on LNG disruption worries
European natural gas prices rose more than 2% to just shy of 74 euros per megawatt-hour as LNG flows from Qatar remain severely disrupted by force majeure extensions through early November. EU storage sits at 66% full, below average, heightening vulnerability ahead of the 2026/27 heating season.
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US Natural Gas
What's moving · Heat-driven power burn and LNG feedgas recovery support prices near $3 amid record production.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.977 |
+0.1%
+0.002 |
-19.2% |
-4.5% |
-39.4% |
Natgas futures gain 3% weekly on heat, LNG demand
US natural gas futures rose about 3% last week to settle at $2.975/MMBtu. Hotter-than-normal weather boosted cooling and power demand while LNG feedgas flows jumped 12% as maintenance ended at several plants. The EIA reported a 30 Bcf storage injection for the week ended Aug 28, below the 37 Bcf five-year average, though record production and inventories above the seasonal norm capped gains.
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Natgas holds near $3 on late-season heat vs supply
James Hyerczyk ·
FXEmpire · Sun, Sep 7, 2026
October futures traded near $2.97/MMBtu on light holiday volume, holding above the 50-day moving average. Hotter mid-September forecasts sustained power-sector demand while LNG feedgas neared 19 Bcf/d. Lower-48 production hit 114.3 Bcf/d and EIA sees record October storage of 3,985 Bcf, the highest in a decade, limiting upside despite supportive near-term factors.
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Natgas futures hit four-week high on weather outlook
Front-month futures rose to a near four-week high supported by hotter weather forecasts and firm oil prices ahead of the weekly storage report. LSEG data showed Lower 48 output at 111.5 Bcf/d in August and LNG plant flows at 17.2 Bcf/d. Inventories remained above the five-year average despite summer heat.
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Natgas drops to six-week low on LNG maintenance, storage
Futures fell about 4% to a six-week low after expectations of low LNG flows due to Freeport maintenance and a larger-than-expected storage build. EIA reported a 61 Bcf injection for the week ended July 3. LSEG noted Lower 48 output at 109.7 Bcf/d in July with LNG flows at 17.8 Bcf/d.
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Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF surges 1 to 2% to near €74/MWh on low EU storage and Hormuz risks as traders race to inject.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh |
75.31 |
+4.7%
+3.35 |
+166.6% |
+127.9% |
+35.8% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu |
25.64 |
+4.7%
+1.14 |
+166.6% |
+127.9% |
+35.8% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu |
24.02 |
-0.3%
-0.07 |
+150.1% |
+112.0% |
+28.8% |
Qatar brings empty LNG ships home for possible restart
Stephen Stapczynski ·
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 7, 2026
Six empty Qatari-linked LNG carriers are in the Gulf of Oman or heading there, with another recently crossing Hormuz into the Persian Gulf toward Qatar, per Bloomberg-compiled Kpler ship-tracking data. Qatar has largely halted exports since a tanker attack in late July but continues limited loadings inside the Gulf. The positioning signals preparation for a potential resumption of shipments through the strait even as US-Iran tensions flare, which could ease global LNG tightness affecting both TTF and JKM.
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Qatar sends first LNG cargo through Hormuz in weeks
The Al Marrouna tanker, loaded in Qatar last month, transited the Strait of Hormuz broadcasting its location en route to Pakistan's Port Qasim, the first visible Qatari LNG exit via the waterway in weeks. This follows empty tankers repositioning toward the Gulf and comes as Qatar extended force majeure on some deliveries into October while maintaining minimal operations. A sustained resumption could relieve pressure on European and Asian spot prices by restoring a key supply source.
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Asia LNG hits highest since 2022 on Hormuz flare-up
Spot LNG prices in Asia climbed to $25.908/MMBtu, the highest since December 2022, after renewed US-Iran hostilities raised fears of prolonged Hormuz disruptions. The surge more than doubled prices from pre-conflict levels and weighed on demand in price-sensitive markets like China and Pakistan. Elevated Asian benchmarks relative to Europe have influenced cargo flows, though recent TTF strength has narrowed the arb and limited diversions.
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Power
What's moving · PJM files FERC plan for September backstop capacity auction to close 6.8 GW data-center driven shortfall.
Storm Goretti lifts Western Europe spot power prices
Intraday power prices across Western European markets rose Friday as Storm Goretti caused outages and generation issues. EPEX Spot data showed Germany baseload averaging €90.44/MWh and France €87.35/MWh, up from prior-day closes, with UK day-ahead rising 3.5 pounds to £87.50/MWh amid lower-than-forecast wind output and a French nuclear capacity dip.
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Coal
What's moving · India ramps up rail coal shipments as 58 power plants hit critically low stocks amid monsoon disruptions.
India boosts rail coal shipments as 58 plants face critical stocks
India increased coal rail loadings to power plants to 444 rakes on September 6 from 370 on September 3 after the number of plants with stocks below 25% of requirements or critically low rose to 58 by September 5 from 46 at end-August. Heavy monsoon rains disrupted mining and transport in key states like Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Coal supplies about three-quarters of India's power, so the surge in dispatches from Coal India and private mines aims to prevent generation shortfalls.
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China's August coal imports fall 1.5% YoY to 42.09 Mt
China imported 42.09 million tonnes of coal in August, down 1.51% from 42.74 million tonnes a year earlier and 1.49% month-on-month, per General Administration of Customs data released September 8. The decline comes as record-high domestic and import prices curb buying appetite despite earlier supply constraints from safety inspections. This signals easing import demand as domestic output recovers in major mining regions.
Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Wheat surges up to 3.9% on renewed Black Sea export disruption fears after US-Russia talks yield no progress.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
539 |
+0.5%
+3 |
+22.5% |
+34.4% |
+8.2% |
| Wheat |
751 |
+2.4%
+17 |
+48.2% |
+50.0% |
+7.6% |
| Soybeans |
1,309 |
-0.1%
-1 |
+27.0% |
+29.4% |
+3.0% |
| Sugar |
18.33 |
+1.4%
+0.26 |
+22.1% |
+15.7% |
-6.0% |
| Coffee |
293.2 |
-0.8%
-2.5 |
-15.9% |
-25.4% |
+56.1% |
| Cocoa |
6,174 |
-0.2%
-14 |
+1.8% |
-15.1% |
+126.4% |
| Cotton |
86.71 |
+0.4%
+0.38 |
+35.3% |
+34.5% |
-8.7% |
Wheat jumps up to 3.9% on Black Sea export fears after US-Russia talks stall.
Chicago wheat futures rose as much as 3.9% Tuesday, the biggest gain since Aug. 28, after markets reopened post-Labor Day. Russia rejected a proposed moratorium on attacks against civilian grain ships in the Black Sea, with weekend US-Putin talks ending without progress on Ukraine. The move heightens risks of prolonged disruptions to exports from the key trade corridor.
Read →
China soybean crushers face squeeze ahead of Xi US visit.
China's private soybean processors confront negative crush margins and tightening Brazilian supplies as the fourth quarter approaches. A 10% tariff keeps most US beans out of reach, while weakening pig-feed demand adds pressure ahead of Xi Jinping's Washington visit this month. Processors hope for tariff relief or state reserve auctions to sustain operations.
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South Africa farm exports rise 10% in Q2, US shipments jump.
South African agricultural exports hit a record $4.1 billion in Q2, up 10% year-over-year on higher volumes and prices. Shipments to the US rose 56% from Q1 as the effective tariff rate fell to 12.5% from 30%, per the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
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Europe heat and drought spark animal-feed crunch, prices soar.
Extreme summer heat and drought across Europe have scorched pastures, creating severe shortages of animal feed and driving prices sharply higher. Irish farmer Denis Drennan described pastures as 'so burnt' that recovery will take a long time amid ongoing dry conditions.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper hits fresh LME record at $14,617/t on tight supplies and US tariff expectations.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,934 |
+1.4%
+202 |
+20.3% |
+50.5% |
+60.1% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) |
14,627 |
+1.1%
+162 |
+15.2% |
+47.8% |
+53.3% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) |
3,226 |
+0.4%
+12 |
+8.4% |
+25.7% |
+11.2% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) |
3,626 |
+1.8%
+62 |
+20.7% |
+31.9% |
+18.8% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) |
16,709 |
-0.7%
-114 |
-1.3% |
+9.9% |
-18.7% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) |
2,117 |
-0.8%
-16 |
-3.9% |
+1.6% |
+3.8% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) |
55,164 |
+0.4%
+199 |
+31.3% |
+62.6% |
+61.4% |
Core Lithium produces first Finniss spodumene concentrate
Core Lithium produced its first spodumene concentrate from the restarted Finniss plant in Australia's Northern Territory. The milestone came six months after the final investment decision, with plant throughput boosted 20% to 1.2 Mtpa via upgrades. First shipments of new concentrate are targeted for Q4 2026.
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LME posts latest base metals official prices
LME cash copper settled near $14,371 a ton with zinc cash at $4,086 a ton amid backwardation signals. Aluminum cash was around $3,292 a ton while nickel and lead showed mixed moves. Stocks data reflected ongoing tightness in several contracts.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China CMRG tells mills to pause Rio Tinto Pilbara Blend buys as contract talks hit crunch; iron ore tops $100/t on SGX.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
98.2 |
+1.3%
+1.3 |
-2.5% |
+2.6% |
-7.9% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
402 |
-0.5%
-2 |
+2.0% |
+3.7% |
-44.3% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
437 |
+0.2%
+1 |
+6.1% |
+6.4% |
-42.2% |
CMRG directs mills to pause Rio Tinto Pilbara Blend purchases
China Mineral Resources Group instructed some steel mills to halt purchases and negotiations for Rio Tinto’s flagship Pilbara Blend as annual contract talks reach a critical stage. The move mirrors prior pressure tactics used against BHP and Fortescue to consolidate CMRG’s bargaining power over more than half of China’s iron ore imports. It directly threatens Rio’s sales into its largest market and adds downside risk to benchmark pricing amid already soft steel demand.
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BHP-Port Hedland union pay talks extend to next week
BHP and Combined BHP Ports Unions failed to reach a four-year wage agreement at Tuesday talks; negotiations resume next week under Fair Work Commission facilitation. BHP’s latest offer includes a 17% pay rise over four years plus A$25,000 transition payments. Port Hedland handles the bulk of BHP’s iron ore exports, so prolonged disputes risk loading delays at the world’s largest iron ore port.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · China PBOC adds 650k oz gold in August, most since 2023, extending 22-month buying streak.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,439 |
-0.8%
-38 |
+2.6% |
+21.8% |
+147.9% |
| Silver |
66.52 |
-0.3%
-0.23 |
-5.2% |
+62.7% |
+177.0% |
| Platinum |
1,836 |
+0.6%
+10 |
-9.8% |
+34.3% |
+88.3% |
| Palladium |
1,397 |
-0.5%
-7 |
-14.3% |
+24.2% |
-37.5% |
China adds most gold since 2023 despite price surge
Jessica Zhou and Jack Ryan ·
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 7, 2026
People’s Bank of China bought 650,000 ounces of gold in August, its largest monthly addition since October 2023 and 22nd straight month of purchases. Official reserves reached 76.73 million ounces. Persistent central-bank demand underpins long-term gold prices even amid volatility from U.S. data and geopolitics.
Read →
Gold edges higher ahead of U.S. inflation data
Spot gold rose 0.1% to near $4,407/oz as the dollar slipped, with traders eyeing Thursday PPI and Friday CPI prints that could shift Fed rate-hike odds. Silver gained 0.1% while platinum and palladium eased slightly. BMI lowered 2026 platinum and palladium forecasts on weaker auto demand and rising supply.
Read →
Bulls dominate gold positioning and flows
Société Générale reports bullish signals across gold positioning, ETF flows, futures and options from retail to institutions. Market awaits August central-bank data to gauge durability of official-sector support, a core pillar of the current bull run.
Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Zimbabwe bans antimony and tungsten exports to force local refining.
Zimbabwe bans antimony and tungsten exports immediately.
Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines ordered the immediate suspension of all antimony and tungsten exports, including ores and concentrates, via a July 21 letter confirmed by officials. The policy aims to compel local processing and value addition, following a similar earlier lithium move. It tightens global supply of these critical minerals where China already dominates processing.
Read →
USA Rare Earth secures $1.6B US CHIPS LOI for mine-to-magnet chain.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) received a non-binding CHIPS Program LOI for up to $1.6 billion, including $277 million in funding and $1.3 billion in loans, plus a $1.5 billion private PIPE. The support targets its Round Top deposit for heavy rare earths and critical minerals including dysprosium, plus magnet capacity expansion. It advances US efforts to build domestic supply chains for defense and semiconductors.
Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Qatari LNG tanker Al Marrouna transits Hormuz openly, first visible exit in nearly six weeks amid Iran-Oman corridor talks.
QatarEnergy tests Hormuz with first open LNG transit in six weeks
QatarEnergy-controlled LNG carrier Al Marrouna sailed openly through the Strait of Hormuz with AIS on, bound for Pakistan's Port Qasim. This marks the first visible Qatari LNG exit since a late-July tanker attack halted shipments. The move tests potential Iran-Oman safe-passage arrangements as gas prices in Europe and Asia hit three-year highs from the prolonged disruption.
Read →
Baltic Dry Index breaks three-day advance, falls 1.4%
The Baltic Dry Index fell 1.4% to 3,575 points on Monday, ending a three-day rally but staying near October 2021 highs. Capesize rates dropped 2.2% to 6,286 points while panamax eased 0.7%; supramax rose 0.4%. The pullback follows strong commodity demand for iron ore and coal against tight vessel supply.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs hit 6-week high at €84.93/t as buyers overwhelm sellers amid power/gas gains and geopolitical tensions.
EUAs hit new 6-week high at €84.93 on buyer support
EU carbon allowances (EUAs) broke higher mid-session to reach another six-week high as buyers appeared in size to overcome steady earlier selling. Power and gas prices rose amid US and Iranian forces carrying out attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Dec-26 contract gained ground on the day, extending the recent upward trend supported by energy-market dynamics.
Read →
D6 RINs fall to 4-month low at $1.75 after EPA delay
Conventional ethanol D6 RINs traded at $1.75, down 34 cents in one session to the lowest since mid-April, after the EPA extended the Sept. 1 compliance deadline and signaled decisions on small-refinery exemptions. Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs for 2026 also weakened to around $1.92. The move eases immediate pressure on refiners facing record-high renewable volume obligations for 2026 to 27.
Read →
CORSIA futures rise on aviation supply crunch
CORSIA futures ticked higher last week amid analysis highlighting a looming aviation-market supply crunch, with new deals underscoring limited eligible units. ICVCM approval for Verra’s updated crediting standard added support. Retirements across the broader voluntary carbon market stayed on track for a strong year despite a monthly dip to 8 million credits.
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Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid oil perps and Polymarket's new 24/7 Brent/WTI contracts drive on-chain commodity trading amid weekend gaps and regulatory pushes.
UK FCA advances tokenized gold collateral rules.
The FCA is consulting banks on standards for tokenized gold as wholesale collateral under existing EMIR rules, aiming to bolster London's 70% global gold trading share against China. Discussions cover use in OTC derivatives and build on a May joint vision paper with the Bank of England and PRA; standards are expected in coming months.
Read →
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Williams closes $5.5B Momentum Midstream buy, bolstering Haynesville gas infrastructure for LNG and power demand.
Williams closes $5.5B Momentum Midstream deal.
Williams completed its $5.5 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Momentum Midstream from EnCap Flatrock. The deal adds over 4,000 miles of pipelines, 6 Bcf/d gathering capacity and take-or-pay contracts in the Haynesville basin. It strengthens Williams' position to serve rising Gulf Coast LNG, power and industrial natural gas demand.
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TotalEnergies cuts Papua LNG stake, hands operator role to Exxon.
TotalEnergies will sell a 9.1% stake in Papua LNG to partners and transfer operatorship to ExxonMobil while retaining 20%. Project capex has been cut to around $14 billion after nearly $4 billion in savings. The moves clear hurdles for a final investment decision targeted for Q4 2026 on the 5.6 Mtpa LNG project.
Read →
GeoPark enters Venezuela with Gilinski on Bare Block.
GeoPark partnered with Colombia's Grupo Gilinski to acquire and redevelop the Bare heavy oil block in Venezuela's Orinoco belt under a 25-year contract with PDVSA. Current gross production is about 11,000 b/d with redevelopment targeting 400 million barrels net to GeoPark. The equity-financed deal will make Gilinski the controlling shareholder of GeoPark.
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Eni and Petronas explore high-performance bio-gasoline.
Eni and Petronas signed a feasibility agreement to develop high-performance bio-gasoline from renewable feedstocks using Eni's Ecofining process. The fuel targets motorsport use initially before potential commercial rollout. The pact expands their collaboration beyond a recent 50 to 50 JV in Indonesia and Malaysia.
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ONEOK agrees to $4.43B Brazos Permian gas assets buy.
ONEOK agreed to acquire Brazos Midstream's Permian Midland Basin natural gas gathering and processing assets for $4.425 billion. The deal more than doubles ONEOK's processing capacity in the region and is backed by a $9 billion non-voting minority equity investment from Apollo funds. It is expected to close in Q4 2026 and be immediately accretive.
Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Canada's $27.6B counter-tariffs on US steel, dairy, ag equipment and electronics take effect today, escalating bilateral trade war.
Canada's counter-tariffs on US goods begin amid stalled trade talks.
Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliation on roughly $20 to 27.6 billion of US imports took effect just after midnight ET. Duties range 15 to 50% on steel, furniture, clothing, dairy, electronics and agricultural equipment. Negotiations collapsed last month, with both sides blaming each other for the breakdown.
Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Houthis strike Saudi Aramco facilities, fires and injuries reported
Traders on X under #OOTT are tracking fresh Houthi claims and confirmed strikes on southern Saudi energy sites including Aramco facilities in Abha, Najran, Jizan and related areas, with reports of fires, 73 injuries and temporary halts. Oil prices responded higher with Brent near $98 and WTI around $93 to 94 amid renewed geopolitical premium. Discussions focus on potential supply disruptions beyond the ongoing Hormuz issues and implications for refined products tightness.
Read →
Kuwait exports 1M bpd crude including STS outside Hormuz
Oil traders highlight Kuwait Petroleum Corp statements on recovering exports near 1 million barrels per day, using ship-to-ship transfers and deliveries outside the Strait of Hormuz. This is seen as partial mitigation of the blockade effects while Hormuz flows remain constrained. Conversations note it helps offset some supply loss but does not resolve broader Middle East tensions driving the risk premium.
Read →
Ag positioning hits record highs with crowded longs across grains
Commodity analysts flag managed money net longs in major grains and softs surging to 1.37 million contracts, the highest since records began, after a near-200% jump in four weeks. BCOM Agriculture Index reached three-year highs before a recent 3% pullback, with record positions in corn, soybean meal, sugar and cotton. Traders debate whether weather, harvest or profit-taking could trigger liquidation amid stretched positioning.
Read →
Brent pushes toward $100 as Hormuz disruption and new strikes weigh
Market participants note Brent and WTI rising on verified attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and ongoing Strait of Hormuz restrictions, with some forecasting a test of $100 this week. Discussions cover demand destruction offsets, Kuwait rerouting, and refined product shortages like diesel amid the supply shocks. #OOTT threads emphasize the structural nature of the premium beyond short-term headlines.
Read →
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