Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Aug 29, 2026
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Downey's Take on the Past Week
Wheat up $103 (+15.0%) on Black Sea export disruptions from Russia-Ukraine escalation.
Coffee down $46.1 (-12.9%) on Brazilian warehouses filling up and easing supply concerns from the new crop.
Corn up $53 (+10.9%) on tighter US supply expectations from lower yield estimates and Black Sea constraints.
Cocoa up $646 (+10.8%) on delayed Ivory Coast main crop start and Ghana production decline forecasts.
Palladium up $98 (+7.3%) on stronger demand prospects from hybrid vehicle transition and tighter emissions rules.
Crude down $3.66 (-5.4%) on improving Strait of Hormuz flows and reduced Middle East risk premium.
Kicker: Citi recommends buying Dec26 corn calls targeting $5.40 on El Nino weather risks.
Coffee down $46.1 (-12.9%) on Brazilian warehouses filling up and easing supply concerns from the new crop.
Corn up $53 (+10.9%) on tighter US supply expectations from lower yield estimates and Black Sea constraints.
Cocoa up $646 (+10.8%) on delayed Ivory Coast main crop start and Ghana production decline forecasts.
Palladium up $98 (+7.3%) on stronger demand prospects from hybrid vehicle transition and tighter emissions rules.
Crude down $3.66 (-5.4%) on improving Strait of Hormuz flows and reduced Middle East risk premium.
Kicker: Citi recommends buying Dec26 corn calls targeting $5.40 on El Nino weather risks.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Oil traders watched Hormuz tanker flows rise to 6 to 8 million bpd this week with some additional shipments reported, yet diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman on a temporary corridor stalled amid US disinterest and ongoing security risks.
The angle · Paper prices fell 4 to 5% weekly as visible flows eased immediate squeeze fears, but physical Gulf exports remain 7 to 8 million bpd below pre-conflict levels with inventories still drawing, keeping basis and term structure supported.
Wheat futures hit three-year highs above $7.80/bushel on stalled Black Sea exports after Russian and Ukrainian strikes hit ports, terminals and vessels, slashing August Russian shipments toward 2 to 3 million tonnes versus 4.5 million a year ago.
The angle · Export capacity loss concentrates available supply in non-Black Sea origins, lifting flat prices and tightening nearby spreads while alternative routes like Danube handle only a fraction of lost volume.
LME copper saw another round of large warrant cancellations this week, cutting available stocks sharply and driving an eighth straight weekly gain despite some inflows earlier in the period.
The angle · Metal earmarked for withdrawal, much of it heading to Comex amid tariff speculation, sustains LME cash premiums and backwardation while shifting deliverable tonnage out of Europe and Asia warehouses.
US natural gas futures held near one-month highs around $2.90 as smaller-than-expected storage builds of 15 Bcf left the inventory surplus at its lowest in two months amid lingering summer heat and LNG feedgas recovery.
The angle · Lean injection season keeps the curve supported into shoulder months with LNG export demand providing a floor even as prompt weather risks fade.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These are live oil and natural gas prices from Hyperliquid's 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
|
WTI Crude · weekend
$83.29
-0.11 -0.14%
vs Fri close $83.40
|
Nat Gas · weekend
$2.89
+0.00 +0.14%
vs Fri close $2.89
|
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, August 28, 2026
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 537 | +10.9% +53 |
+21.9% | +33.1% | -0.7% |
| Cocoa | 6,636 | +10.8% +646 |
+9.4% | -10.6% | +153.6% |
| Soybeans | 1,288 | +5.1% +63 |
+25.0% | +25.6% | -1.3% |
| Nat Gas | 2.888 | +4.1% +0.115 |
-21.6% | -4.0% | -32.9% |
| Dutch TTF | 66.98 | +1.7% +1.11 |
+137.8% | +110.8% | +34.8% |
| Copper | 14,681 | +1.2% +175 |
+18.3% | +45.7% | +52.7% |
| Gold | 4,530 | -2.0% -94 |
+4.7% | +27.6% | +150.4% |
| Silver | 67.79 | -2.4% -1.68 |
-3.3% | +65.0% | +182.9% |
| WTI Crude | 83.40 | -4.2% -3.66 |
+45.2% | +27.2% | +20.5% |
| Brent | 88.10 | -6.7% -6.29 |
+44.8% | +27.4% | +20.0% |
Commodity Research
The week's most important commodity research.
4 key factors shaping commodities markets in H2 2026
Wood Mackenzie · Fri, Aug 21, 2026
WoodMac macro experts highlight four key risks for H2 2026 commodities: potential global recession from prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions versus resilience and 2027 recovery; uneven country impacts from Middle East conflict; winners/losers from the AI investment boom; and underlying weakness in China's domestic economy despite EV exports and AI scaling. Traders should monitor supply chain issues, recession odds, and China demand signals amid volatility. Read →
What’s driving metal markets prices for copper, steel and aluminum in 2026?
J.P. Morgan · Fri, Aug 21, 2026
JPM notes tariffs, capex cycles, and geopolitics as primary drivers for industrial metals. Copper benefits from tight mine supply, electrification/AI demand, and US-China tariff positioning creating import pulls; aluminum faces Middle East supply disruptions boosting prices short-term before Indonesian capacity weighs; steel remains regionally divergent with US/EU tariffs supporting prices while China's property slump pressures Asia. Overall supportive backdrop for base metals persists into 2H26. Read →
The path for silver prices in 2026 and 2027
J.P. Morgan · Thu, Aug 13, 2026
Physical market tightness from prior years is unwinding, setting up potential outsized downside moves when gold slips, amid rising Fed rate hike expectations increasing opportunity costs. JPM forecasts silver averaging $70/oz in 2026 before settling around $63/oz in 2027 as solar and industrial demand softens and the gold-silver ratio normalizes. Near-term volatility expected but longer-term support from gold correlation remains. Read →
2026 Metals Price Outlook Report
S&P Global · Aug 2026
S&P Global's annual outlook examines peaks, corrections, deficits vs surpluses across precious, base, battery, and ferrous metals. Key themes include resilient global growth, easing policy, AI/transition demand, geopolitics, and supply disruptions shaping 2026 prices; gold may peak with correction risk while silver gains industrial and speculative support; tightening in copper/cobalt/silver vs surpluses in nickel/zinc. Read →
Oil Market Report, August 2026
IEA · Sat, Aug 15, 2026
IEA cuts 2026 global oil demand forecast to -1.6 mb/d y/y due to Hormuz closure and high prices, with contractions easing later in the year before 2027 rebound. Supply falls 4.3 mb/d in 2026 amid Gulf shut-ins (still 8.3 mb/d below y/y); refinery runs and inventories draw sharply lower. 3Q26 balance shows 1.8 mb/d deficit; prices volatile in wide $40/bbl range on geopolitics, with product cracks at records. Read →
Commodity Price Watch: August 2026
S&P Global · Wed, Aug 19, 2026
Manufacturing costs stay elevated through 2026 to 27 on geopolitics and supply issues. MPI forecast 20% higher in Q4 2026 vs 2025 average. Hormuz disruptions pose upside risks to oil, gas, and aluminum; nonferrous metals biased higher assuming GCC production lags. Natural gas prices moderately higher than prior views amid low European storage; aluminum may avoid deep declines if Gulf output remains subdued. Read →
Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026
EIA · Tue, Aug 11, 2026
EIA raises Middle East shut-in estimates due to persistent Hormuz constraints, forecasting Brent at $85/bbl in 3Q26 before gradual decline to $69/bbl average in 2027 as production recovers. Global inventories draw sharply lower through 3Q; US electricity demand surges on data centers. Refined product prices (diesel, gasoline) revised higher near-term amid tight markets. Read →
Commodities Market Outlook: 4Q ‘25
Citi · Aug 2026
Citi sees gold/silver bull market broadening into copper and aluminum in 2026 on dovish Fed, lower real rates, and weaker USD. Brent to $60/bbl by year-end with shallow downturn despite OPEC+ surpluses via China stockpiling; base case for copper at $12k/t (20% upside) over 6 to 12 months on energy transition and AI. Palladium opportunities from potential tariffs noted. Read →
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
The Nigerian Industrial Behemoth That Could Reshape the African Economy
Bloomberg Odd Lots · Sun, Aug 24, 2026
Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway interview Joe Studwell on Nigeria's Dangote Refinery IPO, Africa's uneven development, industrial policy lessons from Asia, and optimism around sustained productivity growth in select African economies amid commodity and petrochemical opportunities. Listen →
American Renewables: A Markets Story with Julie McLaughlin
HC Commodities Podcast (Paul Chapman) · Mon, Aug 25, 2026
Paul Chapman discusses US renewables sector policy whiplash, rising interest rates, infrastructure backlogs, and how surging data center power demand could reverse fortunes for the sector despite prior challenges. Listen →
Trapped in Hormuz: Total War or a New World Disorder? with Jeff Currie
HC Commodities Podcast (Paul Chapman) · Mon, Aug 18, 2026
Jeff Currie (co-founder 1947 Oil & Gas, ex-Carlyle/Goldman) analyzes the US-Iran binary choice, naval vulnerabilities, disrupted oil/product flows, inventory dynamics, geopolitics (China/BRICS), and risks to the post-Bretton Woods commodity order. Listen →
Regional bottlenecks and strong product margins boost European gasoline prices
S&P Global / Platts Oil Markets · Wed, Aug 20, 2026
Emma Kettley with Friedrich Gutsche and Rebeka Foley examine European gasoline supply chokepoints, summer driving demand, restrictive domestic flows, historically low Rhine levels, and global macro impacts on regional balances ahead of seasonal shifts. Listen →
Oil earnings divide: Producers grow, refiners thrive
S&P Global / Platts Oil Markets · Wed, Aug 13, 2026
Jeff Mower with Janet McGurty and Ashok Dutta break down North American Q2 earnings: upstream producers raising output guidance with capital discipline vs. refiners enjoying strongest margins since 2022 amid diesel/jet demand, China export cuts, and disruptions. Listen →
The Strait of Hormuz is just one of many choke points being squeezed right now, says Jeff Currie
CNBC Squawk Box (video segment) · Tue, Aug 26, 2026
Jeff Currie (Real Macro, ex-Goldman/Carlyle) discusses oil price trends, multiple global commodity flow chokepoints (Hormuz, Red Sea, Black Sea, Russian refineries), why products/refined fuels matter more than crude, and bullish views on the broader complex including ag/gold/silver. Listen →
Commodity Intelligence
Split 2-1 positive on oil; Claude flipped bearish on copper this week.
The same questions to three frontier AIs, every week. Unedited verdicts · opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Where the panel stands
| Oil | ▲ Up | 2 of 3 AIs | Up 2nd straight week |
| Copper | ▲ Up | 2 of 3 AIs | Up 3rd straight week |
| US Nat Gas | ▼ Down | 2 of 3 AIs | Down 3rd straight week |
| Gold | ▲ Up | all 3 AIs | Up unanimous 3 weeks |
Why they disagree on oil
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI
▲ Up Hormuz disruptions sustain tight supply, inventory draws support $20+ rally.
Gemini · Google
▲ Up OPEC+ production cuts, robust summer demand, and persistent geopolitical tensions in key producing regions will push prices higher.
Claude · Anthropic
▼ Down Demand fears from tariff-driven slowdown outweigh OPEC cuts as global growth forecasts crumble.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated from public sources; every item links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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