Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 46 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Wed, Aug 26, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Dutch TTF down $3.62 (-5.4%) on Iran-Oman talks over temporary Strait of Hormuz navigational corridor easing LNG supply disruption fears.
Crude down $2.38 (-3.0%) on Iran-Oman talks over temporary Strait of Hormuz navigational corridor. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi visited Tehran and met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. They issued a joint statement at 11:30am EST yesterday (Tuesday) outlining a phased/interim framework to restore safe navigation including mine clearance.
Wheat up $14 (+1.9%) on Black Sea port and vessel attacks disrupting Russian and Ukrainian exports during peak harvest season.
Coffee down $5.6 (-1.7%) on Brazilian warehouse capacity nearing full, prompting potential farmer selling, plus rising ICE robusta stocks.
Nat Gas up $0.040 (+1.4%) on record August heat boosting US cooling demand and power burns.
Corn up $6 (+1.1%) on Pro Farmer crop tour cutting US yield estimate sharply below USDA forecast.
Copper hit a record intraday high yesterday of around $14.800/mt following US tariff threat and LME inventory draw.
Kicker: Citi recommends long corn targeting $5.40/bu in 3 months on strengthening Super El Nino weather risks to global crops.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil
What's moving · Oil extends decline as Iran-Oman Hormuz corridor talks revive reopening hopes.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
79.98 |
-2.9%
-2.38 |
+39.3% |
+24.7% |
+18.6% |
| Brent |
85.79 |
-3.1%
-2.79 |
+39.6% |
+24.8% |
+19.5% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.209 |
-1.3%
-0.044 |
+69.2% |
+34.3% |
+27.9% |
| Heating Oil |
4.090 |
-3.6%
-0.154 |
+88.3% |
+74.0% |
+91.7% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
54.81 |
+1.0%
+0.55 |
+146.5%
+32.58 |
+51.3%
+18.59 |
+44.5%
+16.89 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
91.78 |
-4.3%
-4.10 |
+171.6%
+57.99 |
+165.4%
+57.20 |
+313.7%
+69.60 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
67.13 |
-1.5%
-1.00 |
+157.3%
+41.05 |
+88.2%
+31.46 |
+105.4%
+34.46 |
Oil falls $2 on Iran-Oman Hormuz reopening talks
Brent crude futures dropped more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday to a two-week low after Iran and Oman discussed a temporary joint navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and mine-clearing. The talks, under a June interim U.S.-Iran deal, raised hopes of easing shipping constraints on Middle East crude flows. Preliminary data showed only five commodity vessels transited the strait on Tuesday.
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Oil extends declines on Iran-Oman Hormuz talks
Brent traded below $87 a barrel on Tuesday, extending its weekly decline to about 8%, as Iranian and Omani foreign ministers discussed an interim framework for a temporary joint maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. The Oman News Agency carried the statement on the initiative. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $81 amid the diplomatic signals.
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Futures fall as market shrugs off Iran sanctions
Steve Cronin ·
OPIS · Mon, Aug 25, 2026
October WTI crude futures settled $2.05 lower at $85.01 per barrel and Brent fell $2.22 to $92.17 per barrel on Monday after the Trump administration announced Operation Economic Outcast sanctions targeting Iran and enablers. Analysts said the measures appeared less dramatic than the rhetoric, with limited near-term impact on flows unless China sharply cuts purchases. Refined product futures also declined.
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Oil falls despite fresh US sanctions on Iran
WTI settled down 3.1% at $82.36 per barrel and Brent fell 3.9% to $88.58 per barrel on Tuesday amid stepped-up U.S. economic pressure on Iran. Iran and Oman advanced talks on a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, with Omani officials signaling a possible announcement soon. The market interpreted the sanctions shift as raising negotiation prospects rather than immediate supply risks.
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US Natural Gas
What's moving · Hotter weather forecasts lift US natural gas futures as production stays elevated and storage builds remain modest.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.810 |
+1.4%
+0.040 |
-22.2% |
+0.1% |
-31.4% |
August heat lifts US natural gas prices on stronger cooling demand.
US natural gas prices rose as forecasts turned hotter over the weekend, boosting expectations for power-sector cooling demand. The month is on track to be the hottest August on record by population-weighted measures. Production dipped, notably in Appalachia where short-term prices turned uneconomic, supporting the move higher.
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NGI sees 23 Bcf EIA storage injection next week amid falling rig counts.
NGI projects a 23 Bcf injection into US storage for the week ended Aug 21, up 7 Bcf week-over-week and above last year's 17 Bcf. Power burn eased slightly to 51.9 Bcf/d while dry production rose to 112.4 Bcf/d. US rig and frac counts both fell last week, the first simultaneous drop since April, signaling potential future supply constraints.
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US natural gas futures hit four-week high on heat outlook.
Front-month NYMEX natural gas futures climbed to a near four-week high supported by hotter weather forecasts and firmer oil prices. Investors awaited the EIA weekly storage report due later in the week. Lower-48 output averaged 111.5 Bcf/d so far in August, above July's record, while LNG feedgas flows held near 17.2 Bcf/d.
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Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF falls 5 to 6% to €63 to 64/MWh on easing Hormuz risks and storage injection pace; JKM holds near $23/MMBtu amid Asia demand.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh |
63.10 |
-5.4%
-3.62 |
+124.1% |
+93.8% |
+37.8% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu |
21.58 |
-5.4%
-1.24 |
+124.1% |
+93.8% |
+37.8% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu |
23.32 |
-0.8%
-0.19 |
+142.8% |
+106.2% |
+35.2% |
TTF near two-year highs on low storage, Hormuz risks
Dutch TTF settled at its highest level since January 2023 yesterday amid Europe's low gas storage levels and ongoing Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions. The contract slipped today but ING analysts flag further upside risk as Europe races to refill depleted inventories ahead of winter. Low storage (around 63%) and reduced LNG inflows tighten the market for the benchmark.
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TTF and JKM rally on tight global LNG supplies
Asian JKM and European TTF benchmarks continued rallying as global LNG supplies faced competing threats from Middle East disruptions and strong demand. Tight balances drive competition for cargoes between Europe and Asia, with prices reaching multi-year highs. The narrow JKM-TTF spread signals limited diversion opportunities.
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TTF stable near lows after US-Iran deal optimism
Dutch TTF front-month fell to EUR41.95/MWh intraday, the lowest since May, after US-Iran de-escalation signals. Prices held steady Tuesday following a prior 10% drop on the preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Market caution persists ahead of a potential Geneva signing, with shipper confidence in resumed transit expected to take weeks.
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EU storage at 61% below norms on LNG cuts
EU underground gas storage hit 61% full as of Aug 19, below prior-year and five-year average levels due to curtailed LNG inflows from Middle East disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz issue, affecting 20% of global LNG trade and Qatar supplies, has slowed injections. This positions Europe for a tighter winter refill season.
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Power
What's moving · ERCOT pauses data center interconnections for governor-ordered audit, delaying 50 GW and risking $15B in project costs.
Texas audit may delay 49.8 GW data centers, cost $15B.
Nadine Hawkins ·
Capacity · Tue, Aug 25, 2026
BNEF estimates Texas Gov. Abbott's audit of 300 data center projects in ERCOT's Batch Zero queue could delay 49.8 GW of load and impose $15 billion in costs on developers. The review, ordered Aug. 3, verifies project readiness, ownership, water use and community impact before any new connections proceed. ERCOT has paused key interconnection milestones while the audit runs through at least December, leaving the 474 GW queue, 90% data centers, stalled and raising financing and construction risks for hyperscalers.
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Coal
What's moving · China supply curbs and India thermal import surge lift seaborne coal prices and exports.
Met coal prices set to rise on China mine supply curbs
Metallurgical coal prices remain supported by Chinese demand after the Shanxi mine accident, with domestic prices holding a $50/t premium to seaborne material. Around 50 Mtpa capacity stays idled in Shanxi as safety inspections expand, while diesel shortages hit Russian and Mongolian supply. Indian buyers are expected to ramp up post-monsoon restocking, adding further upward pressure.
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Thermal and met coal prices advance on supply curbs
Australian HCC metallurgical coal index climbed to $248/t on strong Chinese demand and domestic price gains. Thermal coal prices rose in China, Indonesia and Australia amid safety inspections closing washing plants and reducing mine supply. Japanese and South Korean utilities are rebuilding inventories to conserve LNG amid elevated gas prices.
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US coal exports top 2 Mt as India drives thermal surge
Weekly seaborne US coal exports rose 37% with thermal shipments more than doubling week-over-week. India led the thermal coal import surge, boosting demand for US material. The data highlights renewed Asian buyer interest amid seasonal power needs and supply dynamics.
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Agriculture
What's moving · Corn surges on Pro Farmer yield cut to 173.2 bu/acre and crop ratings at 57% G/E.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
530 |
+1.1%
+6 |
+20.3% |
+38.4% |
-4.2% |
| Wheat |
717 |
+1.9%
+14 |
+41.4% |
+42.7% |
-1.2% |
| Soybeans |
1,242 |
+0.3%
+4 |
+20.5% |
+20.9% |
-9.2% |
| Sugar |
17.28 |
+0.1%
+0.01 |
+15.1% |
+4.9% |
-12.2% |
| Coffee |
330.0 |
-1.7%
-5.6 |
-5.4% |
-16.2% |
+77.7% |
| Cocoa |
5,874 |
+0.8%
+45 |
-3.1% |
-24.0% |
+122.2% |
| Cotton |
88.27 |
-0.1%
-0.07 |
+37.3% |
+34.9% |
-7.4% |
Corn extends gains on low expected crop yield
December corn futures rose 1.6% to $5.23 1/2 per bushel Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade, extending a five-session rally. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour pegged national corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, below the USDA’s August estimate of 180.7, while Monday’s USDA crop progress report showed corn rated only 57% good-to-excellent, down 3 points week-over-week and 14 points year-over-year. Traders cited mounting concern over weather-related pollination and grain-fill problems in key states.
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Corn futures hit 3-year high on lower crop estimate
December corn futures settled up 1.4% at $5.15 1/2 per bushel Monday, the highest close since July 2023, after the Pro Farmer Crop Tour released a national yield estimate of 173.2 bushels per acre. The tour figure, which scouts fields across seven states, came in 7.5 bushels below the USDA’s August WASDE projection of 180.7 and signaled weather damage in western and central regions. Soybean futures fell 1.2% as the tour’s soybean yield came in above the USDA number.
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Good-to-excellent corn falls to 57%, USDA reports
USDA’s Aug. 24 Crop Progress report showed the U.S. corn crop rated 57% good-to-excellent as of Aug. 23, down from 60% the prior week and 71% a year earlier. Corn reached 86% in the dough stage and 45% dented, both ahead of five-year averages, while soybean conditions slipped 1 point to 60% good-to-excellent with 91% setting pods. The data reinforced concerns over late-season yield potential amid regional drought and flooding.
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Base Metals
What's moving · US tariff threat and LME inventory draw drive copper toward record highs, lifting base metals complex.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,815 |
+0.1%
+13 |
+21.1% |
+54.5% |
+60.6% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) |
14,357 |
+0.7%
+97 |
+13.1% |
+49.3% |
+46.7% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) |
3,142 |
+0.3%
+11 |
+5.6% |
+24.6% |
+15.2% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) |
3,450 |
+0.8%
+27 |
+14.9% |
+25.8% |
+11.6% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) |
17,014 |
-0.2%
-27 |
+0.5% |
+15.4% |
-15.0% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) |
2,117 |
+0.1%
+3 |
-3.9% |
+3.6% |
-3.5% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) |
56,000 |
-0.1%
-38 |
+33.3% |
+72.6% |
+72.6% |
US tariff threat upends copper surplus as prices test all-time peak
Tom Daly ·
Reuters · Tue, Aug 25, 2026
US tariff prospects on refined copper pulled 885,000 tonnes of imports in H1 2026, draining LME stocks by 65,400 tonnes recently and turning a projected 639,000-tonne global surplus into a de facto deficit. Three-month LME copper hit $14,343/t intraday, within 1.3% of the January record. The arbitrage flow to COMEX inventories, now at a 46-day record high, tightens physical availability outside the US.
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Chinese exports ease pain for London zinc shorts
LME three-month zinc reached a fresh four-year high of $3,858/t on Tuesday with cash-to-three-month backwardation widening to $131/t on low stocks of 95,050 t. China turned net exporter again in July, shipping 9,200 t of refined zinc with some cargoes heading to LME warehouses in Hong Kong. The inflows provide relief to shorts without collapsing the rally driven by non-Chinese tightness.
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Copper sets fresh record as US tariff threat wipes surplus
COMEX September copper hit a record $6.7270/lb ($14,830/t) on Tuesday, up 1.8%, as the US siphon effect intensified ahead of potential 15 to 30% tariffs from 2027. LME three-month copper closed at $14,251/t after touching $14,343/t. CRU now views the 2026 market as balanced at best rather than in surplus.
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Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Coke price hikes and port destocking drive mixed SGX/DCE iron ore moves as China mills weigh margins ahead of September demand.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
94.8 |
+0.9%
+0.9 |
-5.8% |
-1.7% |
-33.6% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
400 |
-0.1%
-0 |
+1.4% |
+1.2% |
-46.9% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
432 |
-0.5%
-2 |
+4.8% |
+3.1% |
-46.5% |
Coke hikes offset China restock hopes, SGX iron ore slips 0.21%.
Second-round coke price rises of 100 to 110 yuan/t from Hebei/Tianjin coking plants, plus ongoing coking coal shortages from Shanxi safety checks, squeezed steel mill margins and offset pre-holiday restocking signals. SGX 62% Fe near-month contract fell 0.21% to $95.7/t while DCE September contract rose 0.21% to 729.5 yuan/t. This highlights cost pressure as the dominant near-term driver for iron ore pricing.
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DCE iron ore consolidates lower at 713.5 yuan/mt as mills cautious.
Most-traded DCE I2701 contract closed at 713.5 yuan/mt, down 0.28% from prior day, with Qingdao spot prices slipping 0 to 2 yuan/mt amid sluggish trading as steel mills restocked selectively. SGX 62% Fe settled at $97.20/t. Blast furnace maintenance impacted 1.4337 Mt hot metal this week, up 67,400 t WoW; rising coke prices and uncertain peak-season demand led some mills to delay restarts, keeping raw material buying cautious and the market in a fluctuating range.
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Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold consolidates near $4,640/oz after 5-day rally as focus shifts to Fed rate path ahead of Jackson Hole.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,620 |
-0.5%
-21 |
+8.0% |
+37.2% |
+160.7% |
| Silver |
68.46 |
-0.3%
-0.23 |
-2.4% |
+76.9% |
+190.7% |
| Platinum |
1,869 |
+0.4%
+7 |
-8.1% |
+39.3% |
+91.7% |
| Palladium |
1,339 |
+0.4%
+5 |
-16.8% |
+25.2% |
-43.2% |
Gold consolidates near $4,640 after five-day rally on Fed focus.
Gold edged down to near $4,640 an ounce, pulling back from a three-month high but still up about 7% over the past week. The pullback follows US Treasury bond-buyback intervention that supported the debasement trade and lifted prices above the 200-day moving average. Traders now watch upcoming US PCE data and Fed Chair comments at Jackson Hole for the next directional signal.
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Central banks bought record 289t gold in Q2 as ETF inflows return.
Central banks net purchased 288.9 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, up 62% year-over-year and the strongest second-quarter total on record, led by Poland (51t) and China (33t). ETF outflows of 45t in the quarter reversed with strong recent inflows, including $637 million into SPDR Gold Trust on a single day. The dual demand engine underpins gold near record highs ahead of key central-bank meetings.
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Gold ETF inflows hit $6.38 billion for fifth straight week.
Physically backed gold ETFs recorded net inflows of $6.38 billion in the week ending Aug 21, the fifth consecutive positive week, led by US ($4.37 billion) and UK funds. Year-to-date net inflows reached $23.611 billion. Strong buying at prices above $4,500 signals renewed investor interest following the metal's technical breakout and macro support.
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Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Lynas posts record A$222M FY26 profit on 59% higher rare-earth prices and expands supply talks.
Lynas seeks new mine supply and US magnet plant amid China curbs
Reuters ·
Reuters · Wed, Aug 26, 2026
Australia's Lynas Rare Earths reported net profit after tax of A$222.4 million for FY ended June 30, up from A$8 million, on record average selling prices of A$80.7/kg driven by stronger NdPr pricing and heavy rare-earth sales. Interim CEO Pol Le Roux said the company is in talks with ionic clay project developers worldwide for new supply and in early-stage discussions for a US magnet processing facility. The moves come as a one-year suspension of Chinese export controls on medium and heavy rare earths expires in November.
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US Antimony doubles daily ore haul at Montana mine to 42 tons
United States Antimony Corp. reported mining at its Stibnite Hill property in Montana has more than doubled to roughly 42 tons of high-grade stibnite ore per operating day since resuming in April, with 576 tons extracted to date versus the prior year's pace. The output strengthens domestic antimony feedstock and reduces reliance on foreign ore for the company's integrated North American operations. The update supports broader US efforts including a $245 million DLA contract to replenish the National Defense Stockpile.
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USA Rare Earth secures $1.6B US gov't LOI for Round Top project
USA Rare Earth entered a non-binding LOI with the US Department of Commerce for up to $1.6 billion including $277 million proposed federal funding and a $1.3 billion senior secured loan under the CHIPS Act, plus a $1.5 billion PIPE raise. The package targets development of the Round Top deposit in Texas to produce rare earths and critical minerals including dysprosium, terbium, yttrium and others starting commercial production in 2028. It also includes collaboration with the Department of Energy to close domestic supply gaps for semiconductors, defense and advanced manufacturing.
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Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index climbs to 2,926 as Capesize and Panamax rates surge on commodity demand.
Baltic Dry Index rises for fourth day to 2,926 points
The Baltic Dry Index advanced 1.5% to 2,926 points, its highest since August 12. Capesize rates jumped 2% to 4,735 points while Panamax gained 2% to 2,166 points. The gains reflect sustained demand for iron ore, coal and grain cargoes across major segments.
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Global container congestion hits record 4.3 million TEU
Container port congestion reached a new absolute high of 4.3 million TEU waiting to berth. Successive typhoons including Narra disrupted Chinese ports, with Shanghai and Ningbo queues at multi-month highs. The backlog exceeds the prior Covid-era peak and supports elevated transpacific freight rates.
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Asia-US container rates rise as Panama cuts draft limits
Asia-US container rates increased on extended peak-season demand, blank sailings and Chinese port congestion. Liquid chemical tanker rates ex-US Gulf stayed largely stable. The Panama Canal Authority will lower Neopanamax draft limits to 48 feet on August 26 and 47.5 feet on September 3 due to El Niño-driven low water levels at Gatun Lake.
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Environment
What's moving · EU carbon hits 1-month high on bullish sentiment despite energy sell-off; RGGI futures top $40; RINs slump on EPA delay.
EU carbon hits 1-month high amid energy sell-off
EU Allowances surged to a fresh one-month high before closing with a 0.7% daily gain even as broader energy markets sold off. Traders digested US plans to economically isolate Iran that could heighten geopolitical risks. Persistent bullish positioning supports EUA prices near recent peaks.
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US ethanol RINs slump to 4-month low on EPA delay
Siddharth Cavale and Shariq Khan ·
Reuters · Mon, Aug 24, 2026
Conventional D6 RINs traded at $1.75 each, down 34 cents and at the lowest level since mid-April, after the EPA extended the September 1 compliance deadline and said it would rule on small-refinery exemption petitions by month-end. Biomass-based diesel RINs also hit multi-month lows around $1.92. The moves reflect expectations of relief for refiners via 1.2 to 1.8 billion freed-up credits.
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Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid Policy Center urges SEC and CFTC to harmonize perpetual contract rules amid $480B+ HIP-3 volume including oil and gold markets.
Hyperliquid urges SEC-CFTC unified perpetual framework
The Hyperliquid Policy Center filed a comment letter calling for a harmonized SEC-CFTC framework classifying perpetual contracts by economic structure rather than underlying asset. HIP-3 builder markets have generated over $480 billion in notional volume and hold roughly $4 billion open interest, spanning crude oil, gold, equities and other commodities. The push aims to enable U.S. competition on execution and liquidity for 24/7 on-chain commodity perps.
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Hyperliquid pushes equity perps as security futures
KuCoin · Tue, Aug 25, 4:19 AM ET
Hyperliquid Policy Center submitted an Aug. 24 comment letter advocating treatment of qualifying cash-settled equity perpetuals as security futures under the existing joint SEC-CFTC regime. The filing notes HIP-3 markets have processed over $480 billion notional volume in 10 months with $4 billion open interest across oil, gold and equities. Proponents say uniform classification by product features avoids regulatory arbitrage for commodity-linked perps.
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Hyperliquid seeks unified perpetual rules
Hyperliquid Policy Center filed comments this week pressing SEC and CFTC for a single framework for perpetual contracts based on futures-like features instead of asset class. Markets now cover crude oil, precious metals and equities with cumulative HIP-3 notional volume exceeding $480 billion. The effort targets clearer U.S. pathways for on-chain commodity exposure without jurisdictional splits.
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Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Woodside's H1 profit jumps 27% on higher energy prices, sets $350M cost savings and reviews Beaumont ammonia asset.
Woodside H1 profit rises 27% to $1.67B, sets $350M cost cuts.
Woodside Energy posted H1 2026 net profit of $1.67 billion, up 27% year-over-year, with operating revenue up 13% to $7.45 billion on a 19% higher average realized price of $74/boe. Production fell 13% to 86.5 million boe due to maintenance and divestments, but the company set an annual $350 million cost savings target from 2028 and declared a 57-cent interim dividend. It also agreed to sell its Calypso gas project stake to BP.
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Woodside reviews Beaumont ammonia plant, all options open.
Woodside Energy launched a strategic review of its Beaumont New Ammonia facility in Texas, acquired for $2.35 billion in 2024, with CEO Liz Westcott saying everything is on the table including a potential sale. The review follows weaker-than-expected demand for lower-carbon ammonia and shifts in global policy since the 2024 acquisition decision. The plant produced its first ammonia in December 2025 and targets blue ammonia output in 2027.
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Comet Ridge buys Santos stake for 100% Mahalo Gas Hub control.
Comet Ridge completed acquisition of Santos' 42.86% interest in the Mahalo Gas Project, gaining 100% ownership and operatorship of the Mahalo Gas Hub in Queensland. It paid A$24.42 million cash plus 83.78 million shares upfront, with up to A$30 million contingent on production milestones. The deal gives Comet Ridge full control over development timing, funding and offtake for 361 PJ of 2P reserves plus contingent resources.
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Gold Fields H1 earnings jump 81% to $1.855B, boosts payouts.
Gold Fields reported H1 2026 headline earnings of $1.855 billion, up 81% year-over-year, driven by 12% higher attributable gold-equivalent production to 1.267 million ounces and a 51% jump in average realized gold price. The South African miner declared a higher interim dividend and expanded its shareholder returns program by an additional $500 million to $1.25 billion total via dividends and buybacks.
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Regulation & Government
What's moving · US escalates Iran sanctions via Operation Economic Outcast, widening secondary sanctions on oil networks and partners amid Hormuz standoff.
US Treasury launches Operation Economic Outcast on Iran.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Operation Economic Outcast, imposing sectoral sanctions determinations on digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping to target Iran's revenue sources. OFAC sanctioned nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels involved in oil smuggling, nuclear procurement, and cyber operations. The moves expand secondary sanctions risk for foreign partners and suspend certain general licenses to tighten the economic noose on Tehran.
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Canada imposes retaliatory tariffs on $20B US goods.
Promit Mukherjee and Bhargav Acharya ·
Reuters · Tue, Aug 25, 2026, 11:06 AM EDT
Canada announced dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs of 15%, 25%, and 50% on about 700 US products worth $20 billion annually, effective September 8, targeting steel, aluminum, dairy, appliances, and electronics. The measures respond to US 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods that took effect August 22 after trade talks collapsed. Ottawa also unveiled a C$7.5 billion support package for affected businesses and workers.
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India lifts four-year wheat export ban immediately.
India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade revised the export policy for wheat, durum wheat, and products like atta, maida, and semolina from prohibited to free with immediate effect. The move follows record 2025 to 26 production of 120.65 million tonnes and aims to boost farmer incomes as domestic prices remain depressed at around ₹31.46 per kg. Adequate buffer stocks ensure no supply risk to consumers.
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Iran vows resistance to expanded US sanctions.
Iran condemned the expanded US sanctions as gross lawlessness and expressed confidence that many countries would not join the pressure campaign. Tehran discussed a joint temporary navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman while the US warned of timelines for partners to cut ties or face secondary sanctions. No major Chinese financial institutions were designated in the latest round.
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What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Gold oscillates at highs awaiting breakout
Gold traders on X analyze 4H charts showing range-bound action after rally, with support at 4615 to 4625 and resistance near 4670. Discussions link moves to oil volatility and broader macro. Matters as gold benefits from uncertainty but faces profit-taking in high-price environment.
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Uranium surges to seven-month high
Commodity accounts note uranium futures climbing amid accelerating nuclear demand and supply tightness. Retail voices highlight it as a standout mover separate from oil/gold focus. Matters for energy transition plays as nuclear gains traction in power sector.
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Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc., the company behind BoxWood. BoxWood is commodity hedge management software for oil and gas producers, fuel consumers, refiners, and trade houses: AI-checked trade confirmations, one-click daily mark-to-market, counterparty reconciliation, settlements, scenario analysis, and automated daily reports for natural gas, NGL, crude, refined-product, and basis hedges.
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