Last price as of Mon, Aug 17, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Nat Gas down $0.086 (-3.1%) on robust US production and larger-than-expected storage build. Coffee up $6.8 (+2.1%) on drier conditions in Brazil supporting harvest supply prospects. Sugar up $0.24 (+1.4%). Dutch TTF up $0.75 (+1.2%). Zinc (SHFE $/mt) up $39 (+1.2%) on broad base metals gains in China. Copper (SHFE $/mt) up $159 (+1.1%) on tightening global supply signals including China smelter feedstock shortages. Oil sideways following President Trump vow Friday to impose new economic measures on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previewed the steps one day earlier. Bessent’s preview: a “one-two punch” of unprecedented economic isolation measures (announcements coming this week) combined with the continued naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz/Iranian ports to prevent anything from going in or out.
Kicker: JPMorgan recommends long copper on persistent concentrate shortages and falling Chinese refined output.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Oil prices were mixed in early trade with Brent at $88.72 per barrel and WTI at $82.39. Hopes faded for a quick deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. and Iran dug in on positions, though Barclays kept its $96 Brent forecast for 2026. Read →
Hengli Group, a major Chinese petrochemical firm with over $100 billion revenue, has imported billions in illicit Iranian crude according to U.S. Treasury sanctions and analysts. The company denies the trades while its refinery business faces sanctions. Read →
Asian refiners are resisting Saudi Aramco requests to load oil at Yanbu on the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks making tankers scarce. The shift follows Hormuz disruptions, pushing Saudi volumes through alternative routes. Read →
Copper futures advanced toward record highs with spot prices up to $543.50 per ton above three-month contracts on the LME, the widest backwardation since 2021. Intense competition for immediate supply signals tight near-term availability. Read →
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,400.15 per ounce as the dollar weakened and soft U.S. jobs and inflation data cut September rate-hike odds to 29%. Silver gained 1.8% to $65.82 while other precious metals advanced. Read →
Brent crude futures rose 0.31% to $88.79 a barrel while WTI fell 0.29% to $82.16. Shipping data showed only five vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday versus 31 the prior weekend after attacks on ADNOC tankers. Analysts said prices face limited upside without a full halt in crude flows or new major supply outages. Read →
Brent held near $89 after a 6% weekly gain while WTI traded around $82. Fresh fighting in Lebanon and vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz clouded prospects for ending the US-Iran conflict. Wider negotiations appeared at a standstill. Read →
Thiel Macro LLC acquired about 1.2 million American Depositary Shares worth $76 million in Vista Energy. Vista ranks among the largest operators in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation. The filing followed Thiel's April meeting with President Javier Milei. Read →
Iraq's Oil Ministry agreed with JGC Corporation to restart work on the fluid catalytic cracking complex at South Refineries Company in Basra. JGC teams remobilized August 10 to prepare units for full design capacity. The project will add 5 million liters of gasoline and 7 million liters of diesel daily plus 400 metric tons of LPG. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natural gas prices fall near 3% to $2.65/MMBtu on record production and 36 Bcf storage build.
The EIA reported a 36 Bcf net injection into US natural gas storage for the week ended August 7, exceeding many market estimates. This larger-than-expected build reinforced bearish sentiment, pushing September NYMEX futures lower through midday Thursday. Ample inventories amid strong supply keep pressure on prices despite summer demand. Read →
DeLa Express withdrew its proposed 2 Bcf/d Permian Basin natural gas pipeline from federal FERC review. The project is now recast as a Texas-only intrastate system aimed at 2030 startup. This shift targets Permian residue gas takeaway within Texas without interstate jurisdiction. Read →
US natural gas prices dropped around 3% to $2.65 per MMBtu, near three-month lows. Record Lower 48 production averaging 111.3 bcfd and a 36 Bcf storage injection above expectations added to downward pressure. LNG feedgas flows also eased slightly this month, increasing domestic supply availability. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises to €62/MWh on Monday as Hormuz LNG disruptions and low EU storage tighten supply.
European natural gas prices climbed above €62 per MWh on Monday, hitting a fresh three-week high. Continued disruption to LNG supplies from the Gulf stems from stalled US-Iran negotiations and renewed strikes, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz falling sharply. Storage levels remain below historical averages and lag pre-winter targets, while heatwaves boost gas-fired power demand and divert supplies from storage. Read →
EU gas storage sits at about 57.15% of working capacity as of early August, running 11-12 percentage points below the 5-year seasonal norm. Injections have been slightly ahead of the pace needed for the relaxed 80% November 1 target but remain well below historical levels due to a low starting point after winter. This underfill heightens winter supply risks for Europe. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM files FERC proposal for data-center interconnections and IRAS amid ongoing capacity pressures.
A SemiAnalysis analysis argues PJM underestimated reliable winter capacity by 4 GW due to modeling choices on gas plant performance and outages, inflating recent capacity auction prices and creating an artificial shortfall signal worth billions to ratepayers across two auctions. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Thungela's H1 profit more than doubles on 15-25% higher thermal coal prices and 12% export growth.
Nelson Banya and Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo · Reuters · Mon, Aug 17, 8:19 AM ET
South African producer Thungela Resources reported half-year headline earnings per share of 4.80 rand, more than double the prior year's 1.92 rand. Revenue rose to 15.2 billion rand from 14.8 billion rand as benchmark thermal coal prices climbed 15% in South Africa and 25% in Australia. Export volumes increased 12% to 9.5 million metric tons, supported by better rail logistics and Ensham mine output; the firm declared an interim dividend of 5.50 rand per share. Read →
Australian miner New Hope reported underlying FY2026 EBITDA of AUD 514 million, supported by stronger coal pricing and higher production. Quarterly activities for the period ending July 31 showed solid performance amid favorable price movements linked to Middle East supply disruptions. The firm is scheduled for its Q4 activities report and investor call on August 17. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Wheat leads gains on Black Sea export disruptions and lower USDA stocks outlook.
Chicago wheat futures closed up 22 cents at $6.74 3/4 per bushel. Corn rose 11 cents to $4.59 and soybeans gained 11 3/4 cents to $11.77 3/4. Wheat led the rally amid ongoing Black Sea tensions. Read →
USDA cut 2026/27 U.S. wheat production to 1.531 billion bushels and ending stocks to 717 million bushels. Overnight wheat futures rose 14 cents and corn added 4.5 cents as Ukraine struck Russian Black Sea grain terminals in Novorossiysk. Read →
Copper futures rose above $6.7 per pound on Monday amid signs of tightening global supply. China’s refined copper output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month in August due to shortages of concentrate and tighter recycled copper rules. Codelco in Chile expects production to fall this year from mine setbacks, while US tariff concerns divert metal to US warehouses. Read →
Lithium carbonate prices climbed 0.99% to 153,000 CNY per tonne on August 17. The gain extends a monthly rise of nearly 1% and marks an 85% increase from a year earlier. Strong demand from energy storage applications supports the rebound in this key battery metal. Read →
Lead prices advanced 0.56% to 1,906.28 USD per tonne on August 17. The metal posted a modest monthly gain of over 1% amid broader base metals activity. Other LME metals including aluminum, zinc and nickel also traded with small daily moves. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures near 14-month lows as China demand concerns from record loan contraction weigh on prices.
Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 700 per ton near 14-month lows. China’s July new yuan loans posted a record contraction, signaling weaker property and infrastructure investment that drives steel use. Blast furnace operating rates rose slightly to 82.64% last week. Read →
The 62% Fe seaborne benchmark settled at US$95.17 per tonne on Friday, up 0.13%. Vale’s New York shares fell 1.23% to US$13.63 and Rio Tinto dropped 2.57% while Dalian futures rose 0.42% to RMB 710.5. Vale raised 2026 C1 cash cost guidance to US$22.50, 23.50 per tonne on stronger real and diesel prices. Read →
Inventories at 47 major Chinese ports dropped 791,800 tonnes or 0.5% week-on-week to 174.22 million tonnes as of August 13. Stocks remain 21.1% higher than a year earlier despite the decline. Typhoon disruption contributed to the reversal after three weeks of builds. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rises toward $4,400 on weaker dollar and softer US data cutting September rate-hike odds to 29%.
Gold extended a two-week advance to trade near $4,400/oz after US retail sales and consumer sentiment data declined, easing rate-hike fears. The moves followed last week's nearly 1% gain and came as the dollar weakened. Read →
Silver shipments into India are picking up as traders and banks secure licenses under a new regime to capture attractive premiums. The rebound follows earlier disruptions from administrative hurdles. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US non-Chinese rare-earth output advances as Lynas signs $96M Pentagon supply deal and Energy Fuels ramps heavy REE production.
Lynas, the largest non-Chinese rare-earth producer, signed a binding letter of intent for a $96 million, four-year supply of light and heavy rare-earth oxides to the US Department of Defense. The deal sets a $110/kg floor price for NdPr and establishes a framework for final agreement. It bolsters US defense supply chains for permanent magnets used in missiles, UAVs, and fighter jets amid ongoing dependence on Chinese processing. Read →
Energy Fuels shareholders approved the acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials, advancing the company's capabilities in rare-earth mining, metals, and alloys. This follows pilot production of high-purity terbium and dysprosium oxides at its White Mesa Mill using US-sourced monazite. The move strengthens Energy Fuels' integrated mine-to-magnet platform for heavy rare earths critical to high-performance permanent magnets. Read →
MP Materials reported Q2 2026 consolidated revenue and price-protection income of $126.1 million, with NdPr sales volumes up 127% year-over-year to 1,006 metric tons. The magnetics segment generated $16.5 million revenue. US government price-support payments reached $110.9 million cumulative, aiding processed rare-earth output as the company reduces reliance on Chinese processing. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz tanker attacks slash transits to near zero, spiking VLCC rates 92% w/w to $188K/day.
Kpler data showed commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to five on Saturday and zero on Sunday, versus 31 the prior weekend. Attacks on ADNOC tankers and stalled US-Iran talks prompted the slowdown, with some vessels likely transiting undetected. The strait normally handles one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs slip to 81.79 EUR on thin trading as traders eye September direction amid reform overhang.
EU allowance prices ended the week 1.8% lower amid low liquidity and higher natural gas prices. Traders await clearer signals in September as the market digests the July reform proposals that extend free allowances. Read →
California cap-and-trade data released Friday showed outstanding emissions from imported electricity reached an all-time high in 2025. Allowances will be retired under the Quebec-linked program to cover the shortfall, tightening supply in the state market. Read →
The Climate Action Reserve published criteria Friday for insuring voluntary carbon credits used under the UN CORSIA aviation scheme. The move advances the framework for high-integrity offsets in international aviation compliance. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Tether Gold market cap surges $237M in 30 days, leading $362M tokenized commodities growth as RWA demand accelerates.
Tether Gold (XAUT) market cap rose $237 million over the past 30 days, driving a $362 million expansion across tokenized commodities to roughly $5.5 billion. XAUT, backed by physical gold in Swiss vaults and trading near $4,040 per token, now sits between $2.48 billion and $2.67 billion, solidifying its lead. The surge signals sustained investor flows into on-chain gold exposure amid broader tokenized commodity demand. Read →
Real-world assets including tokenized equities and commodities drew 169,000 new wallets to Hyperliquid in H1 2026, or 31.7% of all new users. Over 80% of those RWA-focused wallets remained active in the category rather than migrating to crypto-only trading. The influx underscores how commodity and equity perps are expanding the platform's user base beyond pure crypto traders. Read →
RWAs accounted for 31.7% of Hyperliquid's new user growth in the first half of 2026, onboarding 169,000 wallets. Roughly 137,000 of those stayed focused on RWA markets such as tokenized gold, silver, and oil perps. The data highlights accelerating adoption of on-chain commodity futures as a core growth driver for the decentralized exchange. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Alcoa inks 10-year Australian gas supply deal with Equus as miners report earnings amid output cuts.
Alcoa of Australia signed a binding 10-year gas sales agreement with Equus Energy for 50 TJ/d of gas from the Equus offshore project in Western Australia. The deal supplies about 182 PJ total and positions Alcoa as foundation customer, advancing the project with potential $30 million funding. It secures long-term natural gas for Alcoa's aluminum operations in a key producing region. Read →
Shruti Agarwal and Anjali Singh · Reuters · Mon, Aug 17, 2026, 5:05 AM ET
a2 Milk reported FY26 net profit of NZ$113.6 million, down 44% and below consensus, due to supply-chain issues in its China-label infant formula business. Revenue from China-label sales fell 14% to NZ$544.3 million. The firm guided FY27 revenue growth to mid-single digits and shares dropped over 10%. Read →
Franco-Nevada reported Q2 revenue of $580.9 million, up 57%, and sold 132,405 GEOs, up 18%, driven by higher precious metal and oil prices plus new assets. Adjusted EBITDA reached $529.7 million, up 45%, and net income $354 million, up 43%. The royalty firm tracks toward the upper half of annual guidance. Read →
Kimbell Royalty reported record Q2 oil, natural gas and NGL revenues of $103 million along with record net income and adjusted EBITDA. The company approved a $0.47 per unit distribution payable August 24 and plans to use remaining cash to repay debt. Record lease bonus income contributed to results. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump vows unprecedented new Iran sanctions next week targeting oil trade amid naval blockade.
President Trump vowed Friday to impose economic measures on Iran never seen before as soon as next week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previewed the steps one day earlier. The actions follow a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and target the oil trade that funds Tehran's war effort, with potential measures including sanctions on Chinese teapot refiners and banks. Read →
The U.S. Senate passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 by 86-11. The bill imposes new sanctions on Russian officials and authorizes tariffs on China, India and others buying Russian oil and gas. It advances to the House and includes provisions that could grant the president new tariff powers against countries aiding Iran. Read →
The U.S. issued four 2026 proclamations offering tariff relief under Section 232 in exchange for corporate commitments. Recent actions include tariffs on unmanned aircraft systems and components, plus BIS restrictions on exports of black mass and tungsten waste and scrap. These measures expand national security-based trade controls on metals and critical materials. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders note Brent crude holding near $89 on geopolitical risks from fresh fighting in Lebanon and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, clouding US-Iran ceasefire prospects. Despite incidents, Middle East producers maintain high flows out of the Persian Gulf above 4M bpd estimates, tempering upside. Markets watch for any escalation impacting supply routes. Read →
Cleanup is underway after the sanctioned shadow-fleet tanker Caroline Bezengi grounded off Oman, leaking Russian crude affecting 12km of coastline near a marine reserve. The slick has expanded significantly per satellite imagery, prompting Ambrey salvage involvement. Traders highlight risks of sanctions evasion and environmental fallout for energy logistics. Read →
LME copper trades up toward records near $14,365/t with cash premiums near $500/t over futures due to acute nearby tightness from draining inventories and producer shortfalls. Competition between US and China for supply intensifies the squeeze, while NY copper recovers above $6.70. Bullish setup for industrial metals amid macro volatility. Read →
Traders highlight Kazatomprom's upcoming H1 results as key catalyst for the sector, with production already up 9% YoY but costs and guidance under scrutiny. Additional demand signals like Spain's reactor extensions add 2M lbs U3O8 need. Long-term supply constraints keep focus on nuclear energy plays. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, told Bloomberg Surveillance that China has become a skilled 'swing buyer' of oil. He warned US gas and diesel prices could rise further due to critically low inventories, even as crude supplies appear adequate for now. Blanch noted oil prices could ease in 2027 if Strait of Hormuz flows normalize. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.