Last price as of Wed, Aug 5, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Oil market sideways this morning as it awaits details on Iran peace deal. China loosens crisis export controls in a nod toward a return to “normal”. Cocoa up $167 (+2.8%) on West African supply issues. Silver up $1.47 (+2.4%) on Fed policy shift expectations and retreating real yields. Lead (SHFE $/mt) up $44 (+2.2%) on LME inventory drops fueling catch-up rally. Dutch TTF down $1.14 (-2.0%) on milder weather easing European gas balances. Gold up $72 (+1.8%) on lower oil prices and softer dollar. Sugar up $0.19 (+1.3%) on expectations for global sugar deficits. Iron ore Chinese-linked counterparties (weak from a depressed market) are facing increased checks from Western traders regarding physical not meeting specs.
Kicker: Buy Oct26 Dutch TTF gas calendar spread vs. Jan27 on Goldman Sachs view of tighter near-term balances.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Oil prices fell sharply in early trade as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a possible deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil flows. WTI crude futures dropped 0.8% to $75.17 per barrel amid optimism over eased supply concerns. Read →
Glencore reported first-half adjusted EBITDA of $10.1 billion, up 86%, driven by record trading profits from energy market volatility and strong copper prices. The miner-trader also benefits from coal gains and AI-driven copper demand. Read →
BP posted its highest quarterly profits in years as oil trading capitalized on Middle East volatility, with underlying replacement cost profit reaching $5.73 billion. The company plans to sell its $4 billion U.S. biogas business to refocus on core oil and gas. Read →
Siemens Energy reported record third-quarter sales of €11.45 billion and orders, fueled by U.S. AI data center demand for gas turbines and Middle East power needs amid the Iran conflict. Its wind unit returned to profit for the first time since 2022. Read →
Brent crude traded down 0.4% near $79.04 per barrel and WTI fell 0.8% to $75.19 per barrel on Wednesday. Markets await clarity on talks to restore traffic through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz after sharp Tuesday losses. U.S. crude inventories rose about 2.7 million barrels last week per API data. Read →
OPEC crude production averaged 19.44 million barrels per day in July, up 1.16 million b/d from June. Gains came mainly from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Output stays well below pre-war levels amid ongoing Persian Gulf shipping disruptions from the Iran conflict. Read →
Iran-aligned Houthis said they launched a missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker off Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. Saudi officials did not immediately comment. The claim adds to Red Sea shipping risks tied to the broader regional conflict. Read →
China approved refined fuel exports of 2.7 million metric tons for August, excluding Hong Kong and Macau, for the second straight month. Refiners can roll over some allowances into September due to tight timelines. The move provides modest relief to Asian refined product markets. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures hover near 2.70 amid milder weather, ample storage and record production.
Curtis Williams · Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 6:47 PM ET
U.S. LNG exports slipped to 10.48 million metric tons in July from 10.6 million in June per LSEG data. Maintenance at plants including Freeport LNG and seasonally lower output prevented gains despite higher global prices. Europe took the largest share at 4.76 million tons as inventories build for winter. Read →
Nymex natural gas futures traded in a narrow range and settled modestly lower amid strong supplies and forecasts for cooler temperatures that would cut power-sector demand. Power burn near 49.5 Bcf/d and steady LNG exports around 18 Bcf/d provided some support but could not offset the supply backdrop. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF falls 4% to €55/MWh as European storage hits record seasonal low 55% full, pressuring injections.
Japan's top power generator JERA stated it holds sufficient LNG inventories to cover peak summer demand through October even under heatwave scenarios. This reduces immediate spot-buying pressure from Northeast Asia on the JKM benchmark and limits potential cargo diversions away from Europe. Read →
EU gas storage stood at approximately 55.35% full as of late July, about 12 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average, with daily injections running near or below the pace required for the relaxed 80% November 1 target. Low levels heighten reliance on LNG send-out and imports to refill ahead of winter, supporting TTF prices despite recent volatility. Read →
Europe begins the 2026 summer injection season with only 31 bcm in storage, the lowest level since 2018, amid lost Qatari LNG volumes and minimal Russian pipeline flows. The shortfall forces higher reliance on spot LNG cargoes and Norwegian supplies, keeping northwest Europe send-out and TTF-JKM arb dynamics in focus for traders. Read →
Power
What's moving · Texas Gov. Abbott pauses new data-center grid connections pending ERCOT audit amid 474 GW queue dominated by AI demand.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott directed the Public Utility Commission and ERCOT to audit all planned data centers seeking grid connections before any more advance. ERCOT is reviewing roughly 474 gigawatts of proposed new demand, about 90% from data centers, more than five times the state’s record peak load. The pause follows rising local opposition over power and water use and comes as ERCOT postponed a related transmission planning study. Read →
Governor Abbott ordered a moratorium on data-center approvals until regulators audit projects in ERCOT’s interconnection queue. ERCOT said it is pausing its Batch Zero transmission planning study in response. The directive requires developers to provide more details on power demand, water use, and local impacts before connections can proceed. Read →
The governor’s August 3 directive mandates comprehensive audits of data centers before ERCOT grid connections. ERCOT has forecast data-center demand could drive statewide electricity use to double current records by 2032. The move disrupts prior plans to manage large-load interconnections while prioritizing grid reliability and community concerns. Read →
Coal
What's moving · India's July coal-fired power hit record 114.7 TWh on weak monsoon, lifting thermal demand.
Saurabh Chaturvedi · Argus Media · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
India's coal-fired generation rose 13% year-on-year to a July record 114.7 TWh as a weak, uneven monsoon cut hydropower output 18% and boosted cooling demand. Total non-renewable generation rose 7.3% to 143.9 TWh. Domestic supply met most of the extra burn, with thermal coal imports likely falling for a seventh straight month to 11.3 million tonnes. Read →
Mine-mouth thermal coal prices in Ordos, Datong and Yulin rose 2-5 yuan per tonne on August 4 amid tightening supply and firmer summer power demand. Ordos 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal reached 637 yuan/t ex-mine with VAT. High port stocks and cautious buying cap further upside despite seasonal strength. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Grains slide as USDA crop conditions slip and Ukraine export routes face Russian port blocks.
Ukraine's agriculture minister said alternative routes via Danube, rail and road will reach stable capacity only by end-August and handle at most 50-55% of Black Sea volumes. No vessels entered Odesa ports for nearly two weeks amid intensified Russian strikes; direct sector losses could hit $1.5-3 billion. The disruption threatens half of this year's grain and oilseeds exports from a country supplying 6% of global wheat and 11% of corn. Read →
Nationwide corn good-to-excellent ratings fell two points to 61% as of Aug. 2, with very poor-to-poor rising to 14%. Soybean ratings held at 63% good-excellent. Corn silking reached 90% and denting hit 6% for the first time this season, both ahead of averages, while winter wheat harvest stood at 86% complete. Read →
Corn good-to-excellent dropped to 61% from 63% prior week and 73% last year. Soybeans held at 63% good-excellent versus 69% a year ago. Progress advanced ahead of five-year averages with 90% corn silking, 88% soybean blooming and 62% pod-setting. Read →
Kansas production is projected at 196 million bushels, down 43.4% and one of the smallest since 1963's 185 million. Drought and 20-80% abandonment hit southwest areas hardest, though some northeast zones produced average yields. USDA's latest outlook aligns with the reduced figure. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · US copper stockpiles surge 200,000 tons in July ahead of Trump tariff decision, tightening global supply and lifting LME prices to $14,000/t.
More than 200,000 metric tons of copper arrived at US ports in July, the largest monthly volume since at least 2014 per IHS Markit data. LME three-month copper rose 0.9% to near $14,000/t with backwardation widening to $99.50/t as LME inventories fell to a five-month low. The inflows tighten ex-US physical availability while traders position for a pending US tariff ruling on refined copper. Read →
The International Nickel Study Group revised its 2026 forecast to a 32,000-ton supply deficit from a prior 261,000-ton surplus expectation. Primary nickel output is projected at 3.715 million tons while consumption rises to 3.747 million tons, driven by stainless steel demand. Indonesian supply-chain interruptions have already cut processor output by at least 10%. Read →
LME zinc climbed to its highest level since 2022, exceeding $3,700/t amid plummeting inventories and supply struggling to match demand. Kipushi mine in the DRC posted a record 25,677 tonnes of zinc in concentrate in May. The price surge reflects tightening physical market conditions across base metals. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures hover near 13-month lows near $93.70/t amid weak China demand and trader invoice concerns.
Jefferies confirmed some invoices for financing to iron ore trader Sapphire Minmetals Corp. are not genuine after checks with Vitol. The discovery adds to scrutiny on the Point Bonita fund and related exposures. It highlights counterparty risks in physical iron ore trading amid soft prices. Read →
Glencore CEO Gary Nagle said the firm has stopped new business with iron ore trader Radiant World and taken a non-material provision on its exposure. The step follows earlier reviews of invoice discrepancies at the trader. It signals tightening credit conditions for Chinese-linked iron ore counterparties. Read →
BHP workers at Port Hedland notified two days of industrial action for Aug 8-9 over unresolved wage negotiations. The hub handles roughly 80 million tonnes of iron ore annually; up to 16 shipments could face delays. Action comes as iron ore prices sit near multi-month lows, adding supply-side uncertainty. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rises on softer dollar and Iran diplomacy easing oil-driven inflation bets ahead of US jobs data.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,081.09 per ounce on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar. Traders await Friday's US July payrolls report for clues on Federal Reserve policy, with 57% odds now priced in for a September rate hike. Geopolitical progress on US-Iran talks eased oil prices, reducing near-term inflation pressures that had weighed on metals. Read →
On Tuesday gold gained 0.55% to $4,088.50 per ounce while silver rose 2.64% to $60.24. Platinum surged 6.18% and palladium 6.46% as Treasury Secretary Bessent comments on US-Iran talks sent oil prices lower for a second day, pulling yields down and easing inflation expectations. Read →
NYMEX platinum closed up 7.41% at $1,746.80 per ounce and palladium up 7.47% at $1,350.50 on August 4. US Section 232 tariff proposals on downstream metals raised risk premiums for PGMs despite no direct coverage, while unresolved import restriction probes added to supply concerns from Russia and South Africa. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · U.S. defense push accelerates domestic critical minerals deals as Lockheed eyes scandium and germanium from American mines.
Ernest Scheyder and Divya Rajagopal · Reuters · Tue, Aug 4, 4:22 PM ET
Lockheed Martin is negotiating a preliminary deal with NioCorp for 15 metric tons per year of scandium from its Nebraska mine and ongoing talks with Teck Resources and 5N Plus for germanium. These critical minerals support aircraft alloys and infrared sensors. The moves follow a Trump executive order tightening waivers for Chinese suppliers, pushing defense contractors toward domestic sources. Read →
Energy Fuels began construction on a $104 million expansion at its White Mesa Mill to produce commercial volumes of dysprosium, terbium and other heavy rare earth oxides by late 2027-2028. The facility will process Australian monazite feedstock alongside uranium. It aligns with Pentagon support and aims to reduce reliance on Chinese heavy rare earths for high-performance magnets. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index jumps 3.3% to 2,936 on Capesize surge, while GasLog LNG tanker hit in Strait of Hormuz.
The Baltic Dry Index climbed 3.27% to 2,936 points on August 4. Capesize rates surged 4.7% to a high since June 5, while Panamax rose 2.4%. The gains mark the fourth straight session of advances for the dry bulk benchmark. Read →
The Port of Shanghai handled a record 203,881 TEU on August 1, nearly 9% above its prior June record. Shanghai International Port Group reported the single-day volume exceeded 200,000 TEU for the first time. The achievement follows recovery from a mid-July typhoon impact. Read →
Environment
What's moving · Hungary abolishes CO2 quota tax easing EU ETS compliance costs for firms amid ongoing reform talks.
Theodora Stankova · Carbon Herald · Mon, Aug 4, 2026
Hungary's parliament voted to repeal the 2023 CO2 quota tax on EUA sales revenues and refund prior payments. The tax had added costs beyond standard EU ETS allowance purchases. Removal lowers compliance burdens and improves market predictability for Hungarian ETS participants. Read →
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market approved three additional crediting programs for Core Carbon Principles status. Approvals expand high-integrity credit supply in the voluntary carbon market. Expanded CCP coverage supports greater use of quality offsets in compliance and voluntary emissions strategies. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Wells Fargo tokenized deposits launch drives bank adoption of on-chain payments amid RWA growth.
Wells Fargo will launch tokenized deposits this fall for select corporate and commercial clients, initially enabling 24/7 USD-to-GBP cross-border payments and settlements on its blockchain. The move follows similar efforts by JPMorgan and Citi and expands programmable, always-on banking within the regulated system. It signals accelerating TradFi integration with on-chain rails relevant to tokenized commodities and RWAs. Read →
The bank will introduce tokenized deposits for corporate clients this fall, beginning with a limited USD-to-GBP corridor and expanding in 2027. It enables 24/7/365 movement, programming, and settlement of funds without leaving the insured banking system. The development broadens on-chain capabilities that could support tokenized commodity flows and RWA collateral. Read →
Wells Fargo will offer tokenized deposits starting this fall with USD-to-GBP transfers for select clients on its proprietary blockchain, expanding later. The announcement positions the bank alongside JPMorgan and Citi in building blockchain-based settlement infrastructure. This advances institutional on-chain payments infrastructure tied to tokenized assets including commodities. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Devon and Suncor post record-shattering Q2 profits on oil prices and deals, while BP eyes North Sea exit amid buyer interest.
Devon Energy reported net income of $1.91 billion for Q2 2026, more than doubling year-over-year and its highest since Q2 2022. Production rose to 1.36 million boepd following the May close of its $58 billion Coterra acquisition. Higher realized oil prices near $88 per barrel drove the beat on adjusted EPS of $1.57 versus estimates of $1.39. Read →
Suncor posted adjusted operating earnings of C$3.23 per share, beating estimates of C$3.07. Oil sands earnings jumped to C$2.59 billion and refining/marketing to C$2.07 billion from higher crude realizations and margins. The company will raise monthly share repurchases to C$500 million from August. Read →
BP CEO Meg O'Neill said multiple buyers have approached the North Sea business shortly after it was put up for sale. Repeated UK policy shifts on oil and gas and a focus on strengthening the balance sheet drove the divestment. The company targets $20 billion in asset sales by end-2027. Read →
Pemex reported Q2 net profit of 18.02 billion pesos ($1.03 billion), down 69.7% year-over-year. Production averaged 1.66 million bpd, missing the 1.8 million bpd target amid mature field challenges. The firm restructured 255 billion pesos of supplier debt under an eight-year plan while holding $77.5 billion in financial debt. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US copper nears record on tariff risks and Hormuz reopening hopes; China eases fuel export curbs for second month.
China granted refiners temporary approval to export 2.7 million metric tons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in August, excluding Hong Kong and Macau, with some rollover to September allowed. The move follows curbs imposed since March to protect domestic supplies amid Iran-related disruptions. Higher exports could ease global product market tightness and support lower regional fuel prices. Read →
Comex copper futures traded just below all-time highs as traders await a US import tariff decision while monitoring Strait of Hormuz reopening efforts. The metal has gained over 17% on Comex this year, widening its premium to LME prices and drawing large inflows to US ports. Any new tariffs would further tighten global availability outside the US. Read →
India raised the export duty on petrol to 3.5 rupees per litre from 2.5 rupees, lifted the total duty on diesel exports to 25.5 rupees per litre, and set aviation fuel at 22 rupees per litre. The changes aim to secure domestic supplies and boost government revenue amid Middle East price volatility. Higher levies reduce export incentives and support local fuel availability. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders are selling crude on rumors of a Qatar/US-brokered deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent falling below $80. Zerohedge and r/oil users note the market is front-running unconfirmed diplomacy while inventories stay tight. Matters because any real opening would flood supply and crush energy prices. Read →
Active megathread and posts on whether Bessent's 'deal tomorrow' comments are real or hopium, with Iran reportedly demanding control and fees. Users cite WSJ/Axios leaks and warn of prolonged volatility. Matters as it directly drives crude, gasoline, and broader energy market swings. Read →
Retail stackers post buys and debate why gold struggles to break $4100 despite recent highs, with some noting rotation to stocks. Daily price and new purchase threads are active. Matters for precious metals sentiment and potential safe-haven flows in uncertain energy/geopolitical environment. Read →
Traders highlight 4-year downtrend in ag and fertilizers bottoming with charts showing early upturn. Linked to broader commodity rotation after energy moves. Matters as food prices could rise next if energy costs stay elevated, impacting inflation and ag markets. Read →
Lighthearted posts joke about copper theft as 'job opportunity' while traders note industrial metal relevance. Ties into broader metals discussion. Matters for copper supply tightness and price volatility in construction/energy transition sectors. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Dart highlighted unprecedented simultaneous disruptions via Hormuz Strait, Red Sea, and Black Sea chokepoints. She noted geographic concentration risks in supply and potential for Brent to reach $120/bbl by Q4 amid the Iran conflict. Call emphasizes no historical precedent for this scale of constraint. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.