Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 39 stories
▶ The 2-minute market brief · 1.25x
Markets at a glance
Last price as of Tue, Jul 28, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Major 6.8 earthquake in Japan at 3:27am ET (4:27pm Japan) this morning. Even with the large magnitude, early reports indicate the damage seems to be relatively manageable.
Crude oil (down $2, WTI $81, Brent $86) continues its slide this morning following weekend news of China’s involvement in Iran peace talks. Refined product cracks are rallying, so retail oil prices globally have not been falling over the past week.
Crude could hit $60 according to David Wech at Vortexa, as oil at sea and Chinese inventories are currently above this time last year. With cracks rallying, this may not filter through to retail prices.
Coffee up $12.1 (+4.0%) on heavy rain delaying Brazil's coffee harvest.
JKM down $0.57 (-2.6%) on de-escalation in Middle East tensions.
Dutch TTF down $1.50 (-2.6%) on de-escalation in Middle East tensions.
Palladium down $29 (-2.3%) on expectations of further Fed rate hikes.
Cocoa up $92 (+1.8%) on signs of larger global supplies.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends short 3Q27 TTF as the largest LNG supply wave ever pressures European natural gas prices.
Crude oil (down $2, WTI $81, Brent $86) continues its slide this morning following weekend news of China’s involvement in Iran peace talks. Refined product cracks are rallying, so retail oil prices globally have not been falling over the past week.
Crude could hit $60 according to David Wech at Vortexa, as oil at sea and Chinese inventories are currently above this time last year. With cracks rallying, this may not filter through to retail prices.
Coffee up $12.1 (+4.0%) on heavy rain delaying Brazil's coffee harvest.
JKM down $0.57 (-2.6%) on de-escalation in Middle East tensions.
Dutch TTF down $1.50 (-2.6%) on de-escalation in Middle East tensions.
Palladium down $29 (-2.3%) on expectations of further Fed rate hikes.
Cocoa up $92 (+1.8%) on signs of larger global supplies.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends short 3Q27 TTF as the largest LNG supply wave ever pressures European natural gas prices.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil extends losses on U.S.-Iran pause, Hormuz talks
Giulia Petroni · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
Brent crude slid 2.3% to $86.31 a barrel in early Asian trade after an 8.7% drop the prior session, with WTI down 2% to $80.93. A lull in hostilities and Oman-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz eased immediate supply fears, though Caspian exports resumed and Red Sea risks linger. Read →
Gold slips below $4,100 ahead of Fed remarks
Giulia Petroni · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
New York gold futures fell 0.7% to $4,049.30 an ounce as the dollar firmed and odds of a Fed rate hike this week rose to 38%. Elevated yields and a pause in Middle East hostilities weighed on the non-yielding metal. Read →
Oil hits one-week low on U.S.-Iran de-escalation hopes
Reuters · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
Brent fell nearly 2% to $86.61 a barrel and WTI to $81.35, their lowest since mid-July, as President Trump cited good talks with Iran and Oman advanced a Hormuz management proposal. Shipping through Bab el-Mandeb rose while Strait of Hormuz flows stayed low amid persistent risks. Read →
Australia eyes first new refinery in 60 years
Reuters · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a feasibility study with Western Australia for a new refinery by Perdaman, citing Middle East war disruptions and 80% import dependence. The Treasury warned global oil buffers against supply shocks have weakened. Read →
Trump’s oil-price influence faces test amid volatility
Financial Times · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
Oil prices slumped Monday after a U.S.-Iran conflict pause, testing President Trump’s capacity to influence markets through diplomacy. Volatility persists despite hopes for a Hormuz deal, with energy prices remaining a key economic pressure point. Read →
In this issue
Oil 1US Natural Gas 3Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 2Coal 3Agriculture 4Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 2Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 1Regulation & Government 2Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 1Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Oil prices extend third-day slide to one-week lows on US-Iran talks pause and de-escalation hopes.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 80.61 | -2.4% -2.00 |
+40.4% | +16.5% | +11.4% |
| Brent | 85.82 | -2.9% -2.54 |
+41.0% | +18.4% | +14.8% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.324 | -0.1% -0.004 |
+85.1% | +42.3% | +36.8% |
| Heating Oil | 4.127 | +0.4% +0.015 |
+89.2% | +62.8% | +86.1% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
58.98 | +3.2% +1.84 |
+227.8% +40.99 |
+104.2% +30.10 |
+98.7% +29.30 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
92.72 | +2.9% +2.64 |
+171.1% +58.52 |
+149.0% +55.49 |
+346.8% +71.96 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
70.23 | +3.1% +2.11 |
+200.2% +46.83 |
+121.8% +38.56 |
+163.0% +43.52 |
Saudi intercepts Iraqi drones at oil facilities.
Summer Said · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Saudi Arabia shot down drones launched by Iran-backed militias from Iraq at facilities including Abqaiq, which processes 7 million barrels a day. Minor damage occurred and Houthis separately claimed strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure. Riyadh demanded Iraq prevent use of its territory for attacks. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures extend drop to 2.73 USD/MMBtu on record production and soft LNG feedgas.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 2.734 | -1.2% -0.033 |
-25.4% | -10.7% | -32.0% |
US gas futures hit near-12-week low at 2.73 on oversupply.
Trading Economics · Mon, Jul 28, 2026
US natural gas futures fell to 2.73 USD/MMBtu, their lowest in nearly 12 weeks. Strong Lower-48 output averaging 110.6 bcfd in July and LNG feedgas flows at 17.2 bcfd, down from June amid Freeport maintenance, outweigh above-normal temperatures supporting power burn. Inventories sit 6.4% above the five-year average, pressuring prices lower. Read →
EIA: 32 Bcf injection for week ending July 17.
EIA · Thu, Jul 23, 2026
Working gas in storage reached 3,056 Bcf as of July 17 after a 32 Bcf net injection. Stocks were 183 Bcf above the five-year average and 16 Bcf below last year. The build reinforces the seasonal surplus, limiting near-term upward price pressure despite summer demand. Read →
Freeport maintenance cuts LNG feedgas to 1 bcfd.
S&P Global · Fri, Jul 10, 2026
Feedgas deliveries to Freeport LNG fell sharply to about 1 bcfd as major maintenance started on July 10, expected to last into late August. The reduction contributes to softer overall US LNG export demand, adding to downward pressure on domestic gas prices amid already ample supplies. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF falls 6.5% to €58.70/MWh as Asian demand and JKM strength pull LNG cargoes away from Europe.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh | 56.75 | -2.6% -1.50 |
+101.7% | +66.6% | +43.1% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu | 18.91 | -2.6% -0.50 |
+101.7% | +66.6% | +43.1% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu | 21.43 | -2.6% -0.57 |
+123.1% | +78.6% | +42.1% |
China restarts LNG re-exports on stronger JKM
S&P Global Platts / Cyprus Shipping News · Sun, Jul 27, 2026
Chinese importers reloaded two LNG cargoes from terminals in July, the first commercial re-exports since April, after JKM rose above $17/MMBtu and September deliveries hit $21.60/MMBtu. Domestic demand lagged imports, making spot sales abroad more profitable by over $3/MMBtu. The move signals China redirecting surplus cargoes to Northeast and Southeast Asia, tightening availability for European buyers. Read →
TTF drops 7.7% to €58.70/MWh on July 27
Investing.com · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Dutch TTF front-month futures closed at €58.70/MWh, down 7.67% from the prior session with a daily range of €58.525-59.500. The decline aligns with LNG cargoes shifting toward Asia amid higher JKM values and sufficient European summer supply. Lower TTF reduces the incentive for storage injections ahead of winter. Read →
JKM at $21.76, TTF at €58.54/MWh on July 27
LNG Price Index · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
JKM closed at $21.76/MMBtu, down 1.09%, while TTF settled around €58.54/MWh equivalent to $18.80/MMBtu. JKM traded at a $2.96/MMBtu premium to TTF, sustaining the arbitrage that diverts flexible cargoes from Europe to Asia. European storage refill faces headwinds from the price signal and geopolitical supply risks. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM data centers drove $6.3B of latest capacity auction costs, pushing bills higher across 13 states.
PJM auction: data centers add $6.3B to capacity costs.
The Hill · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
PJM's recent capacity auction for June 2028-May 2029 cleared at the $325/MW-day cap but fell short of reliability needs. Monitoring Analytics attributed $6.3 billion of the $16.4 billion total charges to data center demand, part of $29.4 billion across the last four auctions. The independent monitor recommends removing data centers from the main capacity market for a dedicated procurement to avoid shifting costs to other ratepayers. Read →
Global data center power use hits 415 TWh in 2024, set to double by 2030.
IEA · Mon, Jul 28, 2026
Data centers consumed 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, or 1.5% of global demand, growing 12% annually. AI-driven accelerated servers will push consumption to 945 TWh by 2030 in the base case, with the US adding 240 TWh and Europe more than 45 TWh. The IEA notes data centers remain under 3% of total electricity but concentrate demand in specific grids, complicating integration. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures near $130/t as Indonesia barge disruptions support prices amid flat Indian imports.
India thermal coal imports fall 12% in June on domestic supply.
Saurabh Chaturvedi · Argus · Fri, Jul 23, 2026
India imported 12.74 million tonnes of thermal coal in June, down 12% year-on-year and the seventh straight monthly decline. Domestic dispatches to the power sector rose 4.6% to 70.92 million tonnes, meeting most demand as coal-fired generation hit 117.68 TWh. Indonesia supplied 52% of imports while power plants shifted to local coal, cutting seaborne demand. Read →
Coal India Q1 profit beats estimates on higher demand.
Bloomberg · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Coal India reported 88.5 billion rupees profit for the three months to June, up less than 1% year-on-year and above the 86.4 billion rupee estimate. Higher shipments met record electricity demand in India's hottest months despite rising explosives and diesel costs tied to Middle East tensions. The state miner supplies the bulk of India's domestic coal. Read →
Indonesia dry weather halts Barito River coal barging.
Nadhir Mokhtar · Argus · Sun, Jul 20, 2026
Low river levels halted barging on the northern Barito River in central Kalimantan, disrupting supply chains and prompting some miners to declare force majeure. The route feeds major export terminals in south Kalimantan, a region accounting for roughly 30 million tonnes of annual exports. South Kalimantan also faces dry conditions, adding pressure to Indonesia's thermal coal shipments. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Hot Midwest weather and USDA crop conditions slipping to 63% good-excellent for both corn and soybeans drive grain futures lower.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 477 | +0.6% +3 |
+8.3% | +22.5% | -13.2% |
| Wheat | 660 | -0.1% -1 |
+30.1% | +24.5% | -4.2% |
| Soybeans | 1,209 | -0.4% -5 |
+17.3% | +23.1% | -15.6% |
| Sugar | 14.66 | +0.5% +0.08 |
-2.3% | -11.6% | -21.2% |
| Coffee | 318.0 | +4.0% +12.1 |
-8.8% | +7.3% | +58.6% |
| Cocoa | 5,335 | +1.8% +92 |
-12.0% | -35.1% | +119.8% |
| Cotton | 79.94 | -1.2% -0.94 |
+24.4% | +20.6% | -12.1% |
USDA: Corn, soybean conditions slip to 63% good-excellent.
Mariah Squire · Successful Farming / Agriculture.com · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
USDA's July 27 Crop Progress report showed corn silking at 78% and soybeans blooming at 80%, both ahead of averages, but good-to-excellent ratings fell 4 points for corn to 63% and 3 points for soybeans to 63% amid heat. Winter wheat harvest reached 81%, slightly ahead of the five-year average. Declining ratings signal potential yield pressure for 2026 crops. Read →
Heat wilts corn and soybean condition ratings.
Ben Potter · Farm Progress · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Hot conditions across the central U.S. cut corn good-to-excellent ratings 4 points to 63% and soybeans 3 points to 63% for the week ended July 26. Corn reached 78% silking and 25% dough stage; soybeans hit 47% pod setting, both ahead of averages. Winter wheat harvest advanced to 82%. Read →
China buys 4.9M bushels soybeans; unknown takes 4.6M.
Farm Progress · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Private exporters reported to USDA sales of 4.9 million bushels of soybeans to China and 4.6 million bushels to unknown destinations for 2026-27 delivery. Sales support new-crop demand amid China trade commitments. The 2026-27 marketing year begins September 1. Read →
Grain futures drop double digits despite heat.
Ben Potter · Farm Progress · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Corn, soybeans and winter wheat futures fell sharply Monday with double-digit losses as traders sold into the heat-driven rally. Prices ignored worsening crop conditions and focused on profit-taking after recent gains. Energy markets also weakened. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME aluminium stocks hit lowest this century at 271,275 tonnes amid Middle East supply disruptions.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 6.35 | -0.5% -0.03 |
+12.7% | +13.2% | +41.7% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) | 13,745 | -0.1% -9 |
+8.2% | +38.9% | +46.7% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) | 3,034 | +0.1% +3 |
+1.9% | +18.4% | +18.4% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) | 3,235 | -0.3% -9 |
+7.7% | +17.4% | +6.6% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) | 17,162 | -0.9% -157 |
+1.3% | +15.5% | -7.6% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) | 2,045 | +0.1% +3 |
-7.2% | -3.1% | -5.3% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) | 54,321 | -0.5% -292 |
+29.3% | +64.8% | +84.9% |
LME aluminium stocks hit lowest this century on supply crunch.
Reuters · Mining Weekly · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
LME total aluminium stocks fell to 271,275 tonnes on July 24, the lowest since January 1998 and less than one day's global consumption. On-warrant stocks stood at 245,350 tonnes. Gulf smelters accounting for 9% of capacity faced Iranian attacks and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, forcing consumers to draw down inventories; most remaining metal is Russian-origin. Read →
Base metals broadly fell on SHFE; tin and stainless gained.
SMM · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
As of midday close, SHFE base metals broadly declined with copper down 0.12%. Lithium carbonate and SHFE silver dropped over 2%. LME and SHFE tin plus stainless steel posted gains. Domestic prices reflected mixed overnight moves in LME and SHFE sessions. Read →
SMM reports July 27 spot prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, tin.
SMM · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
SMM 1# Copper Cathode averaged 15,553.87 USD/tonne, up 70.53. A00 Aluminum Ingot at 3,417.95 USD/tonne, up 3.37. Zinc Ingot 3,651.46 USD/tonne, up 19.79. Tin Ingot 61,766.14 USD/tonne, up 1,186.84. Battery-grade lithium carbonate 21,583.16 USD/tonne, up 168.46. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures slip near three-week lows on ample supply and high Chinese port inventories.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
96.9 | -0.0% -0.0 |
-3.7% | +10.4% | -39.7% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
398 | -0.3% -1 |
+1.0% | +7.9% | -43.6% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
425 | -0.3% -1 |
+3.2% | +10.4% | -43.0% |
Iron ore futures drop near three-week lows on ample supply.
Jam Kaimo Samonte · Trading Economics · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Iron ore futures dropped toward CNY 740 per ton near three-week lows. Imported iron ore inventories at Chinese ports stayed elevated and steel mill stockpiles rose 8% last week. Record Pilbara shipments underscore abundant global supply pressuring prices. Read →
China pressures BHP, Rio and Fortescue in iron ore talks.
Antony Currie · Reuters · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Beijing’s China Mineral Resources Group is banning some BHP and Fortescue purchases to force yuan payments and Chinese benchmarks during contract talks. BHP’s 62% iron ore EBITDA margin contrasts with struggling Chinese steelmakers amid overcapacity. The shift threatens Australian miners’ dominance as China pushes green steel and scrap recycling. Read →
China iron ore port stocks edge up slightly.
Mysteel via X · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
China’s iron ore port stocks rose slightly in the latest data. CISA members’ daily crude steel output held steady in mid-July. Thinning stocks elsewhere lifted pellet premiums to multi-year highs. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Dollar strength and Fed rate-hike odds pressure gold below $4,050 overnight.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,043 | -0.8% -34 |
-6.5% | +21.6% | +124.7% |
| Silver | 57.76 | -1.6% -0.95 |
-17.6% | +51.7% | +132.4% |
| Platinum | 1,615 | -1.0% -17 |
-20.6% | +15.0% | +52.9% |
| Palladium | 1,268 | -2.3% -29 |
-22.2% | -0.1% | -51.6% |
Gold slips to $4,046, silver to $57.68 as dollar firms.
Diego Fernández · Rio Times Online · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
Spot gold fell 0.73% to $4,045 per ounce and silver dropped 1.71% to $57.47 as the U.S. dollar strengthened ahead of the July 29 FOMC decision. The moves reflect markets pricing a higher chance of a rate hike, reducing safe-haven appeal for the metals. Read →
Gold's next $1,000 move higher as Fed hawkishness peaks.
Neils Christensen · Kitco News · Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
State Street's Aakash Doshi said gold should consolidate near $4,000 through summer but its next major leg higher targets $4,750-$5,500 over six to nine months once rate expectations ease. He cited resilient central-bank buying, strong Chinese imports, and record global debt as structural supports despite higher real yields. Read →
China buys every dip; monetary reset underway via central banks.
Jeremy Szafron · Kitco News · Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Author Willem Middelkoop said China bought over 150 tonnes of gold in June and favors lower prices to accumulate more, with total Chinese demand 150-200% above year-ago levels. He argued central banks are driving a gradual monetary reset by shifting reserves from Treasuries to physical gold, moving price discovery toward Shanghai. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US faces January 2027 deadline to end Chinese critical minerals imports as domestic capacity lags far behind demand.
US may waive China minerals ban as capacity misses 2027 deadline.
Ernest Scheyder and Jarrett Renshaw · Reuters · Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 10:03 AM ET
US demand for rare earth magnets reached 48,000 metric tons in 2025 while domestic supply was only 300 tons, with capacity projected at 5,000 tons by year-end. Trump administration pushes to end waivers for Chinese, Russian, Iranian and North Korean minerals by January 1, 2027, but industry executives say infrastructure shortfalls will require continued waivers. Project Vault stockpiling and Pentagon funding target the gap, yet MP Materials and others face multi-year delays in scaling separation and magnet output. Read →
Indonesia eases rare earth checks delaying alumina, nickel exports.
Reuters · Mon, Jul 27, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Indonesia's presidential staff office met agencies and industry to fix regulatory gaps causing export delays for alumina and nickel products containing rare earth by-products. No rules yet govern allowable rare earth content in shipments, with rare earths prioritized for domestic use under new agency oversight. Shipments of alumina to Malaysia, India and China plus nickel pig iron to China faced holds amid the uncertainty. Read →
Funding gaps hobble western critical mineral objectives.
Financial Times · Tue, Jul 28, 2026
A new report highlights insufficient government-backed financing to attract private capital for Western critical minerals projects amid China dominance. Stronger public support is needed to unlock investment in supply chains for technology and defense materials. The analysis notes persistent shortfalls threaten diversification efforts despite policy focus on rare earths and other minerals. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Red Sea traffic rises to 28 vessels Monday as Hormuz stays low amid US-Iran talks.
Red Sea traffic hits four-day high of 28 vessels Monday
Mohi Narayan · Reuters · Tue, Jul 28, 2:30 AM ET
Kpler data showed 28 vessels transited Bab el-Mandeb on Monday, up from recent lows, including one VLCC, two Suezmax and one Aframax tanker. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained low at six commodity vessels. The increase signals partial easing of Red Sea disruptions tied to Houthi threats and US-Iran negotiations. Read →
Costly tanker diversions continue despite Middle East lull
Bloomberg · Mon, Jul 27, 11:41 AM ET
Brent crude fell below $90 amid a pause in US-Iran hostilities, yet tanker and cargo rerouting around chokepoints persists. The newsletter highlights ongoing supply-chain costs from Middle East tensions that may support oil prices longer term. Read →
BDI drops 1.7% to 2,696 as Capesize leads decline
Hellenic Shipping News · Mon, Jul 27
The Baltic Dry Index fell 47 points or 1.7% to 2,696 on Monday. Capesize rates dropped 2% to 4,200, Panamax slipped 1.2% to 1,999 and Supramax eased 1.4% to 1,670, ending a three-day gain streak. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs fell €1.50 on lower energy prices and reform digestion, closing around €78 amid holiday lull.
EUAs drop €1.50 as energy prices fall and reform debate continues.
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Jul 27, 5:12 PM ET
European carbon allowances closed lower Monday after drifting then falling €1.50 in the afternoon. The drop followed steep declines in energy markets after reduced Middle East tensions and occurred as traders digested the European Commission's ETS overhaul proposal while entering the summer holiday period. Read →
EU ministers clash in Dublin over conditions for free ETS allowances.
Ben Makuch · E&E News by POLITICO · Mon, Jul 27, 6:01 AM ET
Environment ministers met in Dublin to debate the Commission's ETS reform proposal. The biggest friction point is conditional free allowances, with some countries backing tighter decarbonization requirements and others warning it will drive industry out of Europe. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Tether Gold gains ADGM recognition as accepted spot commodity, expanding regulated tokenized gold access in key Middle East hub.
Tether Gold gains ADGM spot commodity status.
Cointelegraph · Sun, Jul 20, 2026
ADGM recognized Tether Gold (XAUT) as an Accepted Spot Commodity. This lets authorized firms in the Abu Dhabi Global Market offer services involving the tokenized gold token. The move follows ADGM's earlier acceptance of Tether's USDT and broadens regulated options for the leading gold-backed token. Read →
DTCC trials tokenize stocks and Treasurys with Wall Street firms.
Wall Street Journal · Tue, Jul 15, 2026
DTCC will convert shares and Treasurys into digital tokens in a trial with nearly 40 firms including JPMorgan, BlackRock and Goldman Sachs. Participants will test tokenized assets for collateral transfers and repo transactions. The SEC previously cleared DTCC's tokenization service for highly liquid assets. Read →
CFTC issues advisory on event contract self-certification.
CFTC · Mon, Jul 21, 2026
The CFTC Division of Market Oversight released an advisory on self-certification of an event contract series. It also announced it will stay the listing of a self-certified contract allowing 24/7 trading for crude oil futures. These actions affect how commodity-linked contracts can launch on designated contract markets. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · $16B Kuwait oil pipeline lease by KKR, Blackstone, Brookfield drives deals complex.
KKR, Blackstone sign $16B Kuwait oil pipeline lease.
Katherine Hamilton · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Jul 27, 7:47 AM ET
Kuwait Petroleum Corp. and Kuwait Oil Co. signed a $16 billion lease-and-leaseback deal for the country’s 13 domestic and export pipelines with a consortium led by Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR. The JV gives KOC 51% and the investors 49% for 20.5 years in exchange for a volume-based tariff, generating $7.85 billion upfront for KOC to fund capex toward 4 million barrels per day capacity by 2035. It marks the largest foreign direct investment in Kuwait’s history. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Russia extends gasoline export ban to end-2026 amid refinery disruptions from Ukrainian strikes.
Russia extends gasoline export ban to end-2026.
Alexandra Vladimirova and Elza Turner · S&P Global · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Russia extended its gasoline export ban for all market participants until the end of 2026. Diesel export restrictions will be lifted as the market recovers. The move addresses ongoing domestic fuel supply tightness from refinery disruptions. Read →
Brazil requests WTO consultations over US tariffs.
Reuters · Mon, Jul 27, 2026
Brazil requested WTO consultations with the US over tariffs of 25% on some Brazilian goods and up to 12.5% on others from dozens of nations. The measures cite unfair trade practices and forced labor enforcement issues. Brazil called the tariffs unjustified and inconsistent with WTO rules. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Hard assets strengthen as oil hits near $100 on Middle East tensions
X / @Swedish_uranium · Sun, Jul 26
Traders note uranium near $86/lb with long-term contracts at $97/lb, gold up 1.4%, silver 4.7%, copper 1.6% while Nasdaq falls. Middle East conflict boosts nuclear as reliable power source and highlights supply security for metals. Cameco Q2 results next week eyed for bullish contracting signals. Read →
Silver surges past $100 while nickel below cost and physicals reprice
X / @jamesmktmaster · Mon, Jul 27
Traders highlight silver breaking $100, uranium at $86.50 bid-ask, nickel under production cost as physical assets reprice. AI capex faces credit stress while commodities gain amid broader market volatility and risk rotation signals. Read →
Crack spreads rise showing real diesel scarcity beyond refinery issues
X / @DarioCpx · Tue, Jul 28
Traders point to 3-2-1 crack spreads climbing due to high-sulfur crude scarcity and crude price suppression, not just bottlenecks. Recent volatility tied to Middle East developments and tanker traffic concerns in key chokepoints. Read →
Traders debate oil swings on Iran talks, blockades, and tanker hits
r/oil · Mon, Jul 27
r/oil daily thread sees heavy discussion on oil price swings from US-Iran talks, Hormuz blockade reports, Houthis targeting tankers, and SPR updates. Traders note futures reacting sharply to any de-escalation or escalation headlines in energy shipping routes. Read →
India uranium deposits draw trader attention for supply security
X / @Indianinfoguide · Tue, Jul 28
Post on Indian uranium deposits sparks interest among commodity watchers focused on domestic supply chains and nuclear expansion. Ties into broader themes of energy security and critical minerals in a tense geopolitical environment. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
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Helima Croft on Squawk Box: China swing factor in oil
Helima Croft (RBC Capital Markets) on CNBC Squawk Box · Mon, Jul 27
Global head of commodity strategy at RBC discusses latest oil price trends amid U.S.-Iran developments. Highlights unexpected scale of China's import scaling back as a key swing factor alongside geopolitics. Notes refined product tightness and market dynamics. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
55%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed rate hike in 2026
78%
+20pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
22%
-1pp w/w
Any Cat 5 hurricane US landfall before 2027
13%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
WHO declares new pandemic in 2026
10%
+4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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