Last price as of Mon, Jul 27, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude down around (Brent) -$8 (-8%) to $88.88 (WTI $83) on U.S.-Iran fighting pause amid China finally entering peace negotiations (first reported after the close Friday evening by Reuters). Dutch TTF down $4.08 (-6.4%) on U.S.-Iran fighting pause. Nat Gas down $0.126 (-4.4%) on U.S.-Iran fighting pause. Cocoa up $170 (+3.1%). Soybeans down $35 (-2.8%). Corn down $13 (-2.6%).
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends buying December 2026 crude calendar spread versus prompt on rebalancing supply risks.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent crude fell more than 4% Monday as the US and Iran paused tit-for-tat strikes after weeks of escalating violence over the Strait of Hormuz. The relief eased immediate supply disruption fears in the key shipping lane. Read →
Brent crude dropped around 6% to near $91 a barrel after the US paused nearly two weeks of strikes against Iran for a second night. Stocks and bonds rallied in relief as Middle East tensions eased temporarily. Read →
A deadly storm in Chile threatened copper production at key mines and heightened worries about the metal's supply for the AI-driven demand boom. The disruption adds to existing industry challenges meeting global needs. Read →
Brent crude tumbled as much as 7.4% below $90 a barrel as the US paused strikes on Iran. European natural gas prices also declined with the easing of supply concerns. Read →
Gold climbed as much as 1.6% above $4,100 an ounce after the US-Iran pause reduced oil supply risks and inflationary pressures. Lower energy prices eased expectations of tighter monetary policy. Read →
Brent crude futures fell $5.70 or 5.9% to $91.08 a barrel, while WTI dropped $4.80 or 5.4% to $84.51. The decline followed a weekend pause in US and Iranian strikes after two weeks of attacks, easing fears of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data showed persistently low tanker traffic despite the lull. Read →
Ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait fell after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast. One Chinese supertanker exited via the strait, but overall flows stayed constrained. Analysts estimate each month of unresolved disruption adds at least $10 a barrel to prices. Read →
The very large crude carrier Olympic Luck transited the Suez Canal partially laden with Saudi crude into the Mediterranean. Other vessels continued risking the Bab el-Mandeb strait despite Houthi threats. The rerouting highlights persistent uncertainty in Red Sea oil shipping routes. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Natural gas futures hover near $2.90/MMBtu as ample storage and production offset summer heat demand.
Front-month futures fluctuated early Friday after the EIA's +32 Bcf storage build for the week ending July 17. The market factored in a 6.4% surplus above average, easing LNG feedgas flows due to maintenance, and potential minor Gulf Coast disruptions from former Tropical Storm Bertha. Demand support hinges on sustained August heat and LNG recovery. Read →
Kinder Morgan's Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America took a Gulf Coast mainline segment out of service, halting 500,000 Dth/d of Haynesville Shale receipts for the second time this month. Local spot prices firmed with TexOk premium over Katy reaching 19.5 cents and the Henry Hub discount narrowing 40 cents. The outage tightens regional supply amid broader market balance. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF falls over 8% to €58/MWh on easing Mideast tensions as EU storage sits at 54%.
Asia spot LNG prices rose for a fifth straight week to their highest in four months amid Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and fears of wider shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. JKM is now expected to average $19.50/mmBtu in H2 2026, up sharply from prior forecasts. Northwest Europe LNG benchmark assessed at a discount to TTF, underscoring the need for Europe to compete harder for cargoes to build storage ahead of winter. Read →
China is re-exporting the first US LNG cargo in over a year as local firms flip it for higher margins in third-party markets and to avoid tariffs. The move highlights shifting global LNG flows and potential impacts on Asian and European price benchmarks amid tight supply. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM capacity auction clears at $325/MW-day cap amid data-center demand surge and 6.8 GW shortfall.
The US Energy Department issued orders directing additional power resources into the western electric grid to address emergency conditions expected to persist across seven states. The directive responds to sustained high demand from heat and other factors straining supply. It provides operational flexibility for grid operators to maintain reliability during peak periods. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Iran war spikes Coal India mining costs, pressuring Q1 profit despite stronger Indian power demand.
Coal India Ltd’s Q1 profit is forecast at 86.4 billion rupees, about 1% below a year earlier. Explosives costs rose 26% and diesel roughly 50% since March due to Middle East conflict disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz. Stronger summer power demand lifted shipments 4% and auction premiums 44%, but higher expenses offset gains and the firm cut output 8% amid elevated inventories. Read →
The Platts Premium Low Vol Hard Coking Coal CFR China index ended Q2 at $263.50/mt after peaking at $265/mt in late June. Ample port stocks and expectations of higher domestic Chinese output eased demand for imported premium hard coking coal. Market participants now watch India for the next demand signal. Read →
Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg put Coal India Q1 profit at 8,640 crore rupees, roughly 1% below last year. Middle East tensions raised explosives and diesel prices sharply, offsetting gains from 4% higher shipments and record summer power demand. Renewables took a larger generation share, leaving coal inventories elevated. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · U.S. corn and soybean crops advance ahead of average with 67% and 66% good-to-excellent ratings per latest USDA data.
The report notes corn conditions at 67% good-to-excellent, down slightly from prior week but below last year. Soybean ratings improved to 66% good-to-excellent. Progress supports expectations for solid U.S. corn and soy harvests amid ongoing weather monitoring. Read →
June USDA data lifted 2026 U.S. soybean planted acres estimate. Combined with strong condition ratings, this points to potential record production levels. Higher acreage supports ample supply outlook for the new-crop marketing year. Read →
Unusual rain and sunshine patterns caused coffee cherries in Karnataka's Chikkamagaluru district to ripen nearly three months ahead of schedule. Growers express concern over potential quality and harvest timing impacts. Early ripening highlights weather risks for India's key coffee producing region. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · China smelter demand keeps Q3 copper TC/RCs under pressure amid rising wire rod and EV orders.
China's copper demand is expected to grow by 452,500 mt in 2026, driven by stronger wire rod orders, electric vehicle demand and grid expansion. This rising smelter intake is keeping treatment and refining charges under pressure through the third quarter. The trend underscores tightening physical market conditions for copper concentrates. Read →
Spot premiums for registered copper arriving at China's ports from late July to August have breached triple digits, setting new yearly highs. Supply deficit narratives are lifting CIF China copper premiums since late June. The move signals tightening availability and stronger buying interest in the physical market. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures on DCE fell sharply this week on China blast furnace output curbs and soft steel demand.
Dalian iron ore futures posted their largest weekly decline in six weeks amid mandated blast furnace production cuts ahead of events in China and subdued steel demand. The move pressures benchmark 62% Fe pricing and highlights weakness in the China steel cycle. Read →
Chinese stainless steel exports declined 17.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. The drop reflects broader challenges for Chinese steel export flows amid global trade frictions and softening overseas demand. Read →
Imported iron ore inventories at Chinese mills increased in the latest week as blast furnace utilization and consumption declined. Higher port and mill stockpiles signal easing supply pressure on the 62% Fe market. Read →
Newmont posted adjusted profit of $2.10 per share versus $1.99 expected. Quarterly gold production fell to 1.29 million ounces from 1.48 million a year earlier due to lower grades and seismic issues at some sites. The company expects Q3 output broadly in line with Q2 and $1.4 billion in 2026 development capital. Read →
24-carat gold rose Rs 960 to Rs 1,45,890 per 10 grams and 22-carat rose Rs 850 to Rs 1,33,700 over the last 24 hours. 18-carat gold increased Rs 690 to Rs 1,09,390. Silver held steady at Rs 2,40,000 per kilogram. Read →
Bank of America lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast 14% to $4,360 an ounce on a more hawkish Fed outlook. The bank still sees $5,000 per ounce possible once tightening ends and maintains a longer-term bullish stance on the metal. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US Antimony proposes acquiring Australian Larvotto to build major non-China antimony producer.
United States Antimony Corporation submitted a non-binding indicative proposal to acquire all of Larvotto Resources via scheme of arrangement. The offer exchanges 6 USAC shares for every 100 Larvotto shares after USAC bought 10% of Larvotto in the open market. The deal targets one of the largest antimony producers outside China, directly addressing supply concentration for this critical mineral used in defense and batteries. Read →
Mrima Hill in Kenya sits atop a major rare-earth deposit drawing interest from US, Chinese and Australian firms. The site is sacred to the local Digo community and has become a focal point in global efforts to secure non-Chinese rare-earth supplies for magnets and defense. Competition for the asset underscores friend-shoring and stockpiling pushes in critical minerals. Read →
An ASPI analysis highlights Australia’s mineral resources and Japan’s economic-security role as key to G7 plans for safer critical-minerals supply chains. The G7 declaration includes a new Critical Minerals Resilience and Production Alliance aiming to reduce reliance on any single non-G7 supplier to 60% or less by 2030. The framework emphasizes diversification, processing capacity and strategic stockpiling beyond market forces alone. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea oil sites slash Bab el-Mandeb transits to 11 vessels Sunday, the lowest in months, while Hormuz traffic stays below 10 daily.
Spot container rates from Asia to US West Coast fell to $5,800-$7,100/FEU this week while East Coast rates ranged $7,600-$9,150/FEU. Drewry noted six blank sailings scheduled next week on transpacific routes amid rising capacity and easing demand. Chemical tanker rates from US Gulf softened across routes as spot activity stayed quiet and bunker costs rose with Middle East tensions. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs fall for second day on profit-taking and risk-off ahead of tense Middle East weekend.
European carbon prices edged lower on Friday after Thursday's €3 decline, as speculators took profits following an early-week 10% rally and reduced exposure ahead of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The move comes after prices had topped €85/t, the highest since January. Lower prices ease immediate compliance costs for covered emitters but signal short-term caution in the EUA market. Read →
Swedish state secretary Daniel Westlen pushed back on Friday against European Commission proposals to slow the pace of CO2 cuts in the EU Emissions Trading System. The clashes highlight divisions among member states on the July 17 overhaul that slows the cap reduction rate and extends free allowances. Internal rifts could delay or alter final reforms affecting long-term EUA scarcity and prices. Read →
A global steel standards body warned Friday that the European Commission's proposed ETS overhaul could make the EU an even tougher market for Indian steel exporters without better alignment on carbon pricing and trade rules. The reforms include slower cap reductions and conditional free allowances tied to European decarbonization investments. This underscores potential trade frictions and CBAM interactions for non-EU heavy industry. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid RWA perps hit record volumes as tokenized commodities dominate trading on decentralized platforms.
Tokenized real-world assets on Robinhood Chain reached about $70 million in value after a roughly fivefold increase in under two weeks. A dozen tokenized stocks each now clear over $500,000 daily in volume. The growth highlights expanding on-chain equity trading infrastructure for RWA exposure. Read →
Between July 13 and July 19, Hyperliquid's tokenized RWA contracts generated $25.1 billion in volume, exceeding crypto-native trading for the first time and accounting for 52% of the platform's $48.2 billion weekly total. Oil, gold, and equity index perps drove the surge. The milestone shows tokenized commodities and assets becoming the dominant category on the decentralized perp exchange. Read →
Tokenized commodities, mostly gold via XAUT and PAXG, held $5.5 billion in value with Q1 2026 spot volume reaching $90.7 billion, surpassing the full-year 2025 total of $84.6 billion. Securitize listed on NYSE at a $1.25 billion valuation and tokenized its own stock. DTCC's tokenization pilot began, with broader service planned for October. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil prices plunge over 7% below $100 on US-Iran de-escalation and revived diplomacy talks.
Nornickel, the world's top palladium producer, is scheduled to announce consolidated production results for the first half of 2026 on July 27. The update will cover nickel, copper, platinum and palladium output amid sanctions and shifting metal prices. It matters as Nornickel supplies a large share of global palladium and nickel used in autos, batteries and electronics. Read →
Rio Tinto reported copper-equivalent production up 3% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 driven by operational performance. CEO Simon Trott highlighted scale and supply-chain strength supporting growth. The results underscore resilience in copper and other metals critical for energy transition amid global demand. Read →
EQT Corporation reported Q2 2026 sales volume of 634 Bcfe, exceeding the high end of guidance. Strong well performance, system optimization and lower curtailments drove the beat. As a major US natural gas producer, the update signals robust Appalachian output supporting domestic supply. Read →
WEC Energy Group will release its Q2 2026 earnings before the market opens on July 29. The utility serves electric and natural gas customers across the Midwest. The report will provide insight into regulated energy demand and infrastructure spending. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump's new 12.5% forced-labor tariffs on 60 partners including Australia and Brazil drive trade tensions.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva wrote in a Washington Post op-ed that new US tariffs of 12.5% to 37.5% on Brazilian goods ranging from food to auto parts are unfair and a strategic mistake. He noted Brazil and Turkey rank second-most tariffed by the US behind China, warned of higher costs for US consumers and supply-chain shifts, and said Brazil will determine its own future. Read →
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he will raise new US tariffs of 12.5% on Australian exports with President Trump at every level of the bilateral relationship. The duties, imposed Friday on 60 partners including Australia citing forced-labor enforcement failures, replace an expiring 10% levy and drew objections from Canberra. Read →
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia will lift its diesel export ban once the domestic market recovers to avoid refinery gluts and production cuts. The government extended its gasoline export curb through year-end amid fuel shortages. Read →
New UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday as his first international visitor. The visit signals continued British support for Ukraine ahead of Zelenskyy's meeting with President Trump. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders note hedge funds buying aggressively into corn, beans, and wheat futures, pushing net longs to +$16B. Hot dry US weather, higher crude prices, and Black Sea export concerns are cited as drivers. This positions ags for potential supercycle but raises questions if funds are late to the rally. Read →
Traders react to reports of halted strikes between US and Iran with Pakistan exploring talks. Oil falls sharply from near $100 levels on ceasefire hopes. Discussions highlight lingering risks from Hormuz blockade and physical market factors like Kazakh outages. Read →
Traders highlight massive managed money purchases in grains totaling billions in notional value. Hot dry weather, crude oil strength, and Black Sea risks cited as bullish factors. Debate centers on whether this signals a new grain bull market or late positioning. Read →
Commodity traders analyze oil's drop noting unwinding of Black Sea/CPC physical differentials from Kazakh issues. Three nights without strikes fuel ceasefire narrative but Hormuz flows remain constrained. Markets seen pricing in temporary relief amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, discusses how Brent crude rose nearly 40% in July amid suppressed Persian Gulf flows and Red Sea risks, noting geopolitics dominates but the situation is nuanced with potential demand and supply dynamics at play. The episode was recorded July 24, 2026. Watch/Listen →
Josh Young, CIO at Bison Interests, explains why current oil prices may be too low given escalation risks, highlighting global demand destruction pricing and potential for WTI to rise another $20-25 short-term toward inflation-adjusted 2008 record levels amid supply and inventory concerns. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.