Last price as of Thu, Jul 23, 6:19 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude up overnight by $4 to $98 (Brent) after following two Saudi tankers being hit in the Red Sea 70 miles off Saudi by Iran-backed Houthi drones/missiles at 4pm ET yesterday (Wednesday) evening. JKM up $0.67 (+3.1%) on Middle East LNG supply concerns amid escalating tensions. Palladium down $38 (-2.9%) on Fed rate-hike expectations reinforced by oil-driven inflation. Silver down $1.33 (-2.2%) on escalating Middle East tensions pushing oil higher and rate-hike odds. Gold down $61 (-1.5%) on oil advance and focus on next week's Fed meeting. Platinum down $24 (-1.4%) on higher yields and rate-hike odds from energy-driven inflation.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long gold into year-end on sustained central bank buying averaging 70 tonnes per month.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The global economy faces simultaneous threats to energy supplies from closures or disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb Strait and Black Sea, imperiling roughly a quarter of world oil supply at a time of already low reserves. Read →
Brent crude rose more than 2% to around $96 a barrel, its highest since early June, as U.S. strikes on Iran continued and Houthis targeted Saudi tankers in the Red Sea while Iran warned the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Read →
Paris wheat futures surged as much as 4.4% to €245 a ton, a two-year high, while corn hit multi-month highs as Russian-Ukrainian attacks raised export risks from the key Black Sea grain route. Read →
TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $6.03 billion for Q2, up 68%, as higher crude prices and strong refining margins from Middle East and Ukraine supply disruptions boosted results. Read →
U.S. refineries operated at 96% of capacity, with some regions at 100%, as Middle East and Ukraine conflicts tighten global fuel supplies and raise outage risks. Read →
Brent crude rose as much as 4.9% to above $95 per barrel, the first time in nearly six weeks, before closing up 3.4% at $94.07; WTI gained 2.9% to $86.83. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran is not serious about diplomacy after an 11th night of strikes, while Houthis announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. National average gasoline prices rose 4 cents to $4.06 per gallon as 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.65%. Read →
Brent crude traded above $95 per barrel, more than $20 above early-July lows, as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated with threats of strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The surge pushed 10-year Treasury yields near 2026 highs and lifted average U.S. pump prices above $4 per gallon. Oil's rally has erased much of the post-June decline following the collapse of earlier diplomatic efforts. Read →
Brent crude futures gained more than 3% to close at $94.07 per barrel; WTI advanced about 3% to $86.83. President Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges or power plants if Tehran strikes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Secretary Rubio stated Iran is not serious about a deal. Tanker traffic through Hormuz remained minimal with only nine vessels crossing on Tuesday. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Western heat boosts power burn to 11-month high while EQT raises output guidance, pressuring Henry Hub amid ample storage.
Natural gas-fired power generation reached its highest weekly level since August in the latest EIA storage week. Widespread heat increased electricity demand and utility pipeline nominations by 1.7 Bcf/d. This supports stronger near-term demand but follows a 41 Bcf storage build the prior week. Read →
EQT raised its full-year production guidance after wells outperformed expectations. The move adds to abundant Lower 48 supplies that have capped prices. The company tracks roughly 20 Bcf/d of potential demand growth. Read →
New Permian takeaway capacity from Gulf Coast Express and Hugh Brinson pipelines pushed Waha spot prices back above $2/MMBtu. Flows are redirecting more supply toward Louisiana markets. Henry Hub cash prices declined as a result. Read →
The Haynesville Shale is adding pipeline connections including to Carthage and Gulf South ahead of new Gulf Coast LNG capacity. Infrastructure investments precede much of the region's liquefaction ramp-up. This positions the basin for higher long-term feedgas demand. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF jumps over 5% to 62.79 EUR/MWh on July 22 amid EU storage at just 54% and LNG flow competition with Asia.
Greece-based Dynagas will continue transporting Russian LNG to third countries for 12 months under a new EU sanctions package, with volumes capped at 2025 levels. The exemption, reported by the FT and still needing final approval, resolves Greek objections that had delayed the 21st sanctions round. It sustains Russian LNG availability amid tight global supplies and European storage shortfalls. Read →
Equinor said Europe is unlikely to reach its 80% storage target as LNG cargoes divert to Asia amid competition and supply concerns. EU storage sits around 54%, well below seasonal norms, raising winter supply risks. The warning highlights pressure on TTF from slow injections and global cargo competition. Read →
Russian LNG imports to the EU rose 15% in the first half of 2026 while US supply shares declined. The trend occurs as the bloc debates a full ban and further sanctions on Moscow energy exports. Increased Russian volumes add to available supply even as European storage rebuild lags. Read →
The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) LNG price climbed to US$22.17 per MMBtu on July 23. The move reflects strong Northeast Asian demand and competition for cargoes versus Europe. Elevated Asian prices widen the TTF-JKM arb, influencing spot cargo routing. Read →
Power
What's moving · Virtual power plants expand to supply peak power for surging data center demand in PJM and ERCOT.
ERCOT reached a new summer peak of 91 GW, up 17 GW since 2021. Solar output rose 27 GW and battery additions over the same period have kept wholesale power prices below 2021 levels despite the demand surge. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China thermal coal prices stagnate amid high inventories and weak demand while coking coal shows uneven performance.
Northern port thermal coal prices stalled amid high inventories, with mine-mouth prices slipping on weak demand from traders. Coking coal presented uneven performance due to thin trading and cautious buying, with some grades scarce from safety inspections in Shanxi. This keeps the thermal segment under pressure while metallurgical coal lacks clear direction. Read →
India's thermal power plants held 42.8 million tonnes of coal as of July 12, enough for 14 days at 85% plant load factor. Coal-based plants supplied nearly 70% of electricity from April to June. Daily monitoring by an inter-ministerial committee continues amid rising demand. Read →
Russian metallurgical coal prices increased 21-31% in July on higher metal production and export alternatives. Domestic suppliers raised prices amid increased activity in the steel sector. This strengthens the export competitiveness of Russian coking coal. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Grains surge on Black Sea war risks, hot US weather, China demand; wheat, soybeans hit fresh highs.
Wheat led gains to new contract highs as Black Sea port attacks and logistics halts by Russia-Ukraine conflict threaten exports. Hot, dry forecasts in the US Northern Plains and Corn Belt add weather premium to corn and soybeans. China buying interest and crude oil strength lift soybean oil and overall complex. Read →
Soybeans rose on fund buying and China demand watch ahead of USDA sales data, with hot weather raising yield concerns. Corn gained on similar weather risks and Brazil second-crop harvest watch. Wheat jumped on Black Sea export slowdowns and lower spring wheat tour yields. Read →
Citi kept its bullish sugar stance with 17-cent three-month target amid tight supply views. It turned bearish on coffee and neutral on cocoa as price action signals differentiated trends post-volatility. Read →
Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the plan to boost US cotton profitability, expand domestic use via Plant Not Plastic, and raise marketing loan rates. It targets fifth straight year of negative returns for producers through higher price protection and trade promotion. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper surges as Shanghai stockpiles plunge 82% and US premium doubles amid tariff bets.
Comex copper jumped 3.3% to $6.55/lb while LME three-month copper rose 1.7% to $13,851/t. Shanghai Futures Exchange deliverable copper stocks fell 82% since early May and the domestic spot premium hit 435 yuan/t. LME cancelled warrants reached 56% of inventory as traders ship metal to the US ahead of potential tariffs. Read →
Chilean Foreign Affairs Minister Francisco Pérez Mackenna said the country targets $100 billion in copper projects over the next decade. The push aims to capture data-center demand and reduce reliance on China as its main buyer. The announcement came at Bloomberg’s Sustainable Business Summit in Singapore. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures fell 1% to 739.5 yuan/mt on weak blast-furnace output and soft China demand.
DCE most-active i2609 contract closed at 739.5 yuan/mt, down 1%. Qingdao spot prices fell 4-8 yuan/mt with mills sidelined. SMM data showed blast-furnace utilization at 89.49%, down 0.5pp WoW, and hot-metal output down 13,500 mt/day WoW; iron-ore demand expected to stay weak. Read →
Vale reported Q2 iron-ore production of 75.971 Mt, up 0.8% YoY, with record S11D and Brucutu output plus Capanema/VGR1 ramp-up. Pellet output fell 7% to 7.303 Mt. Iron-ore sales rose 3.1% to 79.747 Mt. Read →
Vale shares advanced after its Q2 report showed iron-ore output at its highest second-quarter level since 2018, with gains also in copper and nickel. Production strength came from S11D records and project ramp-ups despite some pellet weakness. Read →
Mysteel published latest Jingtang-port HRC export quotes including 3.0*1250*C SPHC from HBIS Tangsteel/Chengsteel and Shougang Group on FOB terms. Quotes cover minimum 500-tonne lots with 60-day delivery. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold holds steady near $4,133/oz ahead of ECB, Fed rate decisions.
Spot gold traded flat at $4,133.08 an ounce in early Asian hours on July 23. A modest dollar pullback lent support while elevated bond yields and upcoming ECB, Fed, BOJ and BOE decisions weighed on the outlook. Higher rates typically pressure non-yielding assets like gold. Read →
The People’s Bank of China added 15 metric tons in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and 20th consecutive month of buying. Official reserves reached 2,346 tonnes. Central banks in emerging markets bought the dip while institutional investors sold amid rising U.S. rates. Read →
Bank of Tanzania purchased about 28 metric tons since late 2024 to bolster reserves and support the shilling. A 2024 mining rule requires exporters to sell at least 20% of gold output to the central bank. The purchases add roughly $3.68 billion in reserve assets. Read →
India and Myanmar are expanding cooperation on rare earth mining after Indian delegations visited the country and high-level talks with Myanmar's junta chief. Nearly half the world's heavy rare earths come from Myanmar's Kachin state mines, currently processed in China. Indian firms including IREL and others attended a Mandalay mining forum to explore supplies for EVs, clean tech and defense, seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled processing. Read →
The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 states China's 2025 heavy rare earth export controls put $6.5 trillion of annual downstream production outside China at risk across autos, defense and energy if fully enforced. Cobalt prices rose 130% due to DRC export quotas; lithium more than doubled amid supply constraints. The report highlights proliferating export controls, a structural refining bottleneck and falling 2025 investment despite demand growth. Read →
The Democratic Republic of the Congo will lift its cobalt export ban on October 16, replacing it with a quota system running through at least 2027. The 2026 annual quota is 96,600 tonnes, with 87,000 tonnes allocated pro rata to producers and 9,600 tonnes under government discretionary control. The system is expected to reduce ex-DRC stocks to about one month of demand by Q4 2026 and maintain tightness through 2027. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Houthis strike two Saudi oil tankers in Red Sea, creating new chokepoint risk alongside Hormuz blockade and lifting Brent above $97.
Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla as part of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. Several tankers rerouted or turned back near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The move risks creating a second major chokepoint for oil flows alongside Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially disrupting millions of barrels per day of Saudi crude exports. Read →
Container spot rates eased following an early peak season surge tied to tariff frontloading. Capacity additions and cooling demand contributed to the softening on key trades. The shift signals the peak momentum may be subsiding after weeks of strength. Read →
Drewry's World Container Index declined 2% to $4,547 per 40ft box, marking the end of 10 weeks of gains. The drop reflects subsiding peak-season momentum on major routes. Spot rates on Asia-Europe fell 3% to $6,300 per 40ft. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs rally as market prices in structural tightness from EC ETS reform proposals.
European Union Allowances rose sharply, up 10% since Friday, as traders incorporated the effects of the European Commission's July reform proposals. The changes are expected to leave the EU ETS structurally tighter through the remainder of the decade. Higher prices reflect anticipated supply constraints and stronger compliance demand in the near term. Read →
The European Commission's ETS overhaul proposal requires the EU's 27 member states to review details over the summer. A decision on fallback benchmarks is targeted for September. The process follows the July 17 proposal and will shape allowance supply, benchmarks, and long-term market design. Read →
The lead European Parliament negotiator on EU ETS reform stated biochar should supply permanent CO2 removals under the system. The MEP called for safety margins and limits to protect environmental integrity. Integration of carbon removal credits remains a key element of the ongoing ETS revision debate. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · RWA tokenized assets dip to $34.67B as tokenized commodities hold $4.48B amid equities surge.
On-chain data shows total RWA tokenized assets declined to $34.67 billion by July 23, 2026, from a $35.2 billion peak on July 10. Tokenized commodities distribution value stood at $4.48 billion, down 3.88% over 30 days, while tokenized stocks and ETFs rose 15.1% to $1.86 billion with holders up 75.71% to 671,490. Figure’s HELOC Token leads the sector at $20.1 billion on Provenance, underscoring credit dominance even as commodities anchor gold exposure via XAUT and PAXG. Read →
John Isige · FXStreet · Wed, Jul 22, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Monthly transfer volume for tokenized stocks reached $9 billion in June 2026, up from $53 million a year earlier. Active RWA market capitalization flattened near $27.3 billion per DeFiLlama data, showing trading of existing tokens outpacing new inflows. The surge highlights demand for 24/7 equity exposure on crypto rails while broader RWA adoption slows. Read →
DefiLlama data shows tokenized gold value rose from $1.1 billion in 2025 to over $6 billion in early 2026. Gold tokens including Tether Gold (XAUT) and Paxos Gold (PAXG) drive the category within the $4.48 billion tokenized commodities segment. The growth reflects sustained institutional and retail demand for on-chain physical gold exposure amid RWA expansion. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil futures surge on Middle East tanker strike and Trump Iran threats, lifting producer shares and capex focus.
NovaGold will acquire Paulson Advisors' 40% interest in Donlin Gold LLC in an all-stock transaction, consolidating 100% ownership of the large Alaska gold project into a new U.S.-domiciled entity valued at about $4.2 billion. Existing NovaGold shareholders will own nearly 65% of the combined company. The deal simplifies project development and financing for one of the world's largest undeveloped gold deposits with 40 million ounces of resources. Read →
Liberty Energy and PowerBridge formed a JV combining Liberty's power generation and management expertise with PowerBridge's digital campus assets to develop a planned 2GW powered data center campus in West Texas. Initial phase targets over 300 MW of generation with first power in Q4 2027. The move expands Liberty's role in large-load power markets for AI and hyperscale customers. Read →
UltraTech Cement reported consolidated net profit of Rs 2,604 crore for Q1 FY27, up 17% YoY, with net sales rising 16% to Rs 24,465 crore. Domestic volumes grew 13.1% and the company highlighted operating efficiencies plus integration of acquired assets including India Cements turnaround. Capacity utilization reached 81% on 200.1 MTPA India capacity. Read →
Teck Resources will release unaudited Q2 2026 financial results before market open on July 23 with a webcast at 8:00 a.m. PT / 11:00 a.m. ET. The mining company, focused on copper, zinc and steelmaking coal, reports amid ongoing metals market volatility and project development updates. Read →
Cecilia Jamasmie · MINING.COM · Wed, Jul 22, 3:49 AM ET
The all-stock deal will create NovaGold Corporation, a Delaware company owning 100% of the Donlin Gold project in Alaska, with existing NovaGold shareholders holding 65%. Paulson will receive 35% and the board expands with co-chairs Kaplan and Paulson. The move ends split ownership of the 40 Moz resource project to accelerate development and financing. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · EU seals 21st sanctions package on Russia with LNG shipping carve-out and frozen oil price cap.
The EU is finalizing a sanctions compromise that permits continued transport of Russian LNG cargoes by European firms, primarily benefiting Greek operators, for one year with volume limits. This follows Greek warnings that stricter measures would hand market share to rivals. The deal pairs the exemption with broader restrictions on Russian banks, crypto, oil platforms, and shadow-fleet vessels. Read →
The Trump administration will cut aluminum import duties to about 25% from 50% for approved companies committing to build, expand, or refurbish US smelters, with relief tied to projected domestic production volumes. The incentive aims to boost onshore capacity for the metal used in autos, housing, and packaging after prior tariffs reduced imports and lifted prices. It applies to firms meeting investment deadlines such as starting work by early 2029. Read →
The US and Saudi Arabia finalized a 123 Agreement enabling Saudi construction of US-designed nuclear reactors and uranium enrichment plus waste reprocessing on its territory. The 30-year pact, signed by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, now faces a 90-day congressional review period. Westinghouse stands to benefit from potential multi-billion-dollar reactor projects while raising proliferation concerns among experts. Read →
President Trump's February 10% global tariff on most imports expires at the end of the week, prompting the US trade chief to indicate ongoing work on replacement measures. The lapse coincides with broader tariff policy reviews amid ongoing trade negotiations. Markets are watching for continuity or adjustments that could affect commodity import costs. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders note Houthis attacked two tankers, directly tying it to oil price action and capex debates. Discussions highlight potential supply disruptions for Gulf oil exports and broader geopolitical risks to energy markets. Read →
Posts discuss oil breaking $95, higher yields, and clear shift from Big Tech/AI into energy and materials sectors. Traders see this as pricing physical constraints and energy inflation risks over digital growth narratives. Read →
Traders share buy signals for XAUUSD around 4085 with targets to 4150+, noting reclaimed levels and institutional buying. Context includes policy risks, yields, and gold benefiting from inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Read →
Susan Bell examines global stockpiles and warns that levels of refined petroleum products are much more critical than crude oil reserves amid ongoing Middle East disruptions. She highlights intensifying tightness in product markets as a key vulnerability. Watch/Listen →
Rasmussen notes cracks emerging in the refined product market and says the global energy complex cannot absorb further shocks. He forecasts prices returning toward triple digits due to sustained supply risks. Watch/Listen →
Bobrinskoy discusses the long-term energy cost outlook, stating the market is awash in oil. The segment focuses on structural supply-demand dynamics beyond near-term geopolitics. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.