Last price as of Mon, Jul 20, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Oil price (WTI was up almost $3 to $85 and Brent over $90) was up over the weekend on US strikes in Iran watching highest prices in a month. However at 3am NY time this (Monday Jul 20, 2026) morning oil sold off into negative territory as Iran said diplomatic exchanges through mediators with the US were ongoing despite renewed conflict. Dutch TTF up $1.74 (+3.0%) on geopolitical tensions tightening European LNG supply outlook. Cocoa down $137 (-2.4%). Nat Gas down $0.059 (-2.0%) on ample US supply and storage builds amid LNG maintenance outages. Silver up $0.72 (+1.3%). Corn up $6 (+1.2%) on higher crude prices lifting biofuel demand expectations. Soybeans up $14 (+1.1%) on renewed Chinese demand for US supplies and higher crude supporting biofuels.
Kicker: JPMorgan clients pitched long Dec26 TTF vs short Jan27 TTF calendar spread on summer storage injection delays and Asian demand pull.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent crude rose 3.2% to $90.93 a barrel in early Monday trading after U.S. and Iranian forces escalated attacks over the weekend. West Texas Intermediate gained 2.8% to $84.05. European natural-gas prices also jumped above €60 per megawatt-hour amid supply disruption fears. Read →
Brent crude futures climbed 2.4% above $90 a barrel as U.S. strikes on Iran entered a ninth day and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply. Only four vessels transited on Sunday versus eight the prior day. Iran claimed two oil tankers exploded in the waterway. Read →
Just four vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, down from eight Saturday, per LSEG data. No LNG tankers have been seen passing since Thursday. Seven laden Qatari LNG carriers held about 0.57 million metric tons inside the Gulf as of mid-July. Read →
Brent crude surged above $90 a barrel before paring gains amid U.S.-Iran escalation and vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil erased some advances after Iran reported receiving mediator proposals. Prices have swung on escalation and potential detente signals. Read →
Brent gained 2.4% to $90.25 a barrel in London following a fresh wave of U.S. strikes and reports of Iran targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation has reduced transits and raised risks to global energy supply routes. Read →
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran boosted crude and condensate exports to 12 million bpd in the first half of July, the highest since February per Kpler data. Renewed fighting is now slowing shipments through the Strait of Hormuz despite the rebound. Read →
China's fuel oil exports, mainly for marine bunkering, rose 55% month-on-month in June to 2.73 million metric tons or 577,000 bpd, the highest level of 2026. First-half 2026 exports climbed 7.7% year-on-year amid lower refinery demand for cheaper crude feedstock. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures hover near $2.88/MMBtu as ample supply and muted demand pressure prices lower.
Futures dropped below $2.87 per MMBtu amid ample domestic supply. Production averaged 110.2 Bcf/d in July while Freeport LNG outages reduced export demand. Higher solar and wind generation further cut power-sector burn. Read →
August contract last traded at 2.878 with volume over 5,300 contracts. Prices reflect ongoing supply surplus and limited near-term demand growth. The move keeps the complex in a lower trading range. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · Hormuz shipping halt from US-Iran strikes lifts TTF to four-month high near €60/MWh.
TTF prices climbed on fears that the Hormuz blockade will choke LNG flows from Qatar, the region's largest exporter. Reduced transits directly tighten cargoes available for delivery into northwest Europe terminals. The price action reflects immediate supply-risk premium rather than storage or weather data. Read →
Tanker tracking shows LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stopped over the past three days while crude oil transit fell sharply. The halt places direct upward pressure on gas prices in both Asia and Europe by limiting Qatari and UAE cargoes. Broader strikes raise the risk that the disruption persists beyond the immediate weekend. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Posco pushes overhaul of Australian coking coal export pricing amid buyer pressure.
Posco, a major buyer of Australian coking coal, called for industry collaboration on a new export pricing system. Its procurement head said a few transactions distort prices upward. The move adds pressure on Australian resources exporters alongside China’s iron ore pricing push. Read →
China Coal Energy’s controlling shareholder plans to increase its holdings in the company. The move signals confidence in the thermal and metallurgical coal producer amid recent market volatility. It comes as domestic production and import data show mixed supply signals. Read →
China’s northern transfer ports thermal coal market showed weakening upward momentum with rising seller interest and measured buying. High stocks weighed on prices despite summer demand. The shift follows a June production drop of 9.7% YoY and import surge to 42.78 Mt. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Energy price shocks and flash soybean sales lift grains, with corn up 0.75% to $4.4475 Sept.
Ben Potter · Farm Futures · Fri, Jul 17, 5:00 PM ET
Three flash soybean sales including one to China lifted September futures 8.25 cents to $11.9350. Winter wheat rose 1-2% and corn 0.75% on spillover from Brent crude above $87 per barrel amid Middle East tensions. Light rains forecast for the central U.S. provided limited weather support. Read →
Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari stated the policy focuses on value addition and local processing without banning raw bean exports. The clarification followed President Tinubu's comments at the Cocoa Value Addition Summit promoting domestic industry growth. Raw exports will continue while investments target processing capacity and farmer incomes. Read →
Minister Abubakar Kyari confirmed raw cocoa exports remain key as processing capacity expands under the Renewed Hope Agenda. The statement rejected earlier interpretations of a full ban following Tinubu's summit remarks. Policy aims to boost earnings through traceability and premium market access. Read →
Old crop soybean export sales hit a marketing year low of 5.2 million bushels while corn reached 53.6 million. Markets monitor Middle East crude developments and U.S. planting weather alongside Argentina harvest. Wheat sales totaled 2.9 million old crop bushels mainly to Vietnam and Thailand. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · China copper import premium hits $100/ton after tax crackdown on scrap, tightening local supply.
The premium for imported copper over domestic supplies in China widened to $100 per ton on Friday per Shanghai Metals Market data, the highest in over a year and first three-digit level since May 2025. A tax shake-up has created scrap shortages and lifted import demand in the world's top copper market. This signals tighter physical availability and supports LME and Shanghai prices amid energy-transition demand. Read →
China will impose a 2% consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries starting September 1, rising to 4% in 2027, and a similar tax on solar cells from April 2027. Exemptions apply to sodium-ion, solid-state batteries and some advanced solar tech through 2028. The policy shift targets oversupply in clean-energy supply chains central to lithium and battery metals demand. Read →
Brent crude rose 2.4% to $90.18 per barrel on escalating US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with knock-on effects for energy costs and inflation. Broader markets reacted while commodity prices including base metals faced volatility from supply risks and macro uncertainty. Copper and other LME metals traded amid these pressures without specific new moves reported. Read →
LME nickel prices advanced for a second straight week, with cash at around $16,675 per ton recently. This follows earlier quota cuts in Indonesia that supported prices toward two-year highs in May before some reversal. Rising nickel supports stainless steel and battery sectors in the energy transition. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP Port Hedland strike and China Fortescue curbs lift iron ore prices amid weak steel demand.
Iron ore futures retreated below CNY 760 per ton from one-month highs. Seasonal weakness in Chinese steel demand and narrowing mill margins weighed on prices. BHP's lower quarterly output and looming Port Hedland strike contrasted with Rio Tinto's higher shipments, while China Mineral Resources Group barred some mills from Fortescue lower-grade fines. Read →
China's steel exports reached 10.3 million tons in May 2026, the first time above 10 Mt this year, up nearly 8% MoM despite weak domestic demand. Exports for H1 fell 5.6% YoY to 57.87 Mt overall. Rebar and HRC futures showed marginal recovery amid maintenance cuts and destocking, but property/infrastructure weakness persists. Read →
Bank of America updated its forecast for platinum to reach $3,000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with palladium at $2,200, citing thin inventories, South African mine constraints, and rising Chinese jewelry demand substituting for expensive gold. The note highlights structural deficits and limited above-ground stocks as key drivers for the bullish outlook. Read →
Valterra Platinum expects first-half headline earnings to rise 1,388% to R18.5bn-R22.2bn, beating consensus, driven by an 80% year-on-year jump in the dollar basket price to $2,710/oz and higher volumes at Amandelbult mine. Production guidance holds at 3-3.4 million oz for the full year despite some Q2 disruptions. Read →
Spot gold traded little changed at $4,018.90/oz as investors weighed escalating Middle East tensions lifting oil prices and inflation risks against hawkish Fed comments. Silver rose 1.7% to $56.87/oz while platinum and palladium held steady near $1,592 and $1,249 respectively. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China sends zero gallium, dysprosium, terbium or yttrium to Japan in June, extending export curbs.
Chinese customs data show no shipments of gallium, dysprosium, terbium or yttrium to Japan in June. The curbs, tied to a diplomatic rift over Taiwan remarks, have throttled supplies since late 2025. Japan, the largest rare earth magnet producer outside China, relies on Beijing for heavy rare earth inputs critical to EV motors and defense applications. Read →
U.S. Central Command launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets to degrade attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guards reported two oil tankers exploded and were immobilized on an "unsafe" southern route, warning the waterway remains unsafe for oil, gas, and petrochemicals amid ongoing U.S. aggression. Only four vessels transited Hormuz on Sunday per LSEG data, down from eight the prior day, with oil prices rising 2% above $90/bbl. Read →
Iran's IRGC navy stated two ships attempting to exit Hormuz via an "unsafe route" suffered accidents and stopped, while two others refused to proceed. Ships carrying oil, gas, or fertilizer must seek permission and use designated passages or risk incidents, as the Guards maintain the strait is unsafe under continued U.S. actions. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs end flat near €80 after Commission unveils ETS reforms with extra free permits and aviation tweaks.
The European Commission released proposals for post-2030 EU ETS reforms aimed at maintaining emission reduction effectiveness while ensuring fairness across sectors, competition safeguards and a stable carbon price path. The package includes measures to adjust allowance supply and benchmarks. It directly shapes long-term EUA supply and pricing expectations in the compliance market. Read →
The European Commission proposed bringing certain international flights into the EU ETS starting 2029 and covering all business jets to and from the bloc, citing CORSIA's shortcomings. This expands the aviation sector's compliance obligations under the carbon market. It increases potential demand for EUAs from airlines. Read →
The European Commission proposed distributing an additional 80 million free carbon allowances to industrial installations under the general fallback benchmark categories as part of the ETS review. This increases free allocation volumes before 2030. It adds supply that could ease compliance costs for covered industries and pressure EUA prices. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid RWA open interest hits record $3.6B amid CFTC reporting relief for commodity swaps.
The CFTC issued a final order sunsetting daily and event-based position reports under Part 20 for physical commodity swaps. Clearing organizations, members, and swap dealers no longer face these requirements, though recordkeeping and special calls remain. The move reduces duplicative burdens on participants in physical commodity markets while preserving Commission access to needed data. Read →
Hyperliquid reported RWA-linked markets open interest reached an all-time high of $3.6 billion. Total platform open interest climbed to a 2026 high of $11 billion, driven by HIP-3 permissionless perpetual markets on tokenized assets. The milestone signals rising trader activity in on-chain commodity and equity exposure. Read →
Hyperliquid's RWA open interest hit a record $3.6 billion, coinciding with total OI at $11 billion for 2026. HIP-3 markets contributed the bulk of the RWA figure. The surge reflects growing interest in trading tokenized real-world assets on the on-chain perpetuals platform. Read →
BHP guided group copper output to 1.65-1.8 million tonnes in FY27, down from 1.95 million tonnes in FY26, mainly due to lower grades at Escondida. The company sanctioned two Spence processing projects in Chile with first production targeted for FY28 and CY28. It also disclosed a conveyor belt failure at Carrapateena that will cut output and advanced Olympic Dam smelter expansion plans to capture more value in-house. Read →
Iondrive appointed Dr Grant Caffery, former BHP head of innovation, as CEO effective August 1 to advance commercial deployment of its IONSolv metal extraction platform for rare earths and battery materials. The move follows verified high recovery rates from e-waste and progress on a potential US$15 million funding pathway in Oklahoma. Outgoing CEO Lewis Utting shifts to chief strategy and commercial officer. Read →
Trafigura appointed Josh Presley, previously Head of Capital Markets and Advisory at SMBC Group, as Head of Corporate Finance based in Geneva. He will lead development and execution of the group's global funding strategy and stakeholder relationships. Presley brings over 20 years of debt capital markets experience from SMBC, Bank of America and Credit Suisse. Read →
Harbour Energy completed the acquisition of substantially all subsidiaries of Waldorf Energy Partners and Waldorf Production for $163 million. The deal adds production and increases Harbour's stake in the Catcher field to 90% after regulatory approvals and creditor settlements. Effective date is January 1, 2025. Read →
Halliburton and Eni completed the industry's first integrated closed-loop rig automation deployment with managed pressure drilling on a deepwater well offshore Indonesia. The LOGIX platform combined rig automation, well placement and MPD controls, delivering over 15% efficiency gains in narrow-margin conditions. It marks the first such Asia-Pacific application. Read →
Brent crude jumped more than 2% at the open following escalated US-Iran attacks over the weekend. Attacks targeted vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, adding pressure on global energy markets already watching shipping data. The moves lifted front-month prices to the highest levels since early June. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders highlight Brent crude exceeding $90/bbl for the first time since June due to escalated US-Iran conflict restricting flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Discussions note rapid short covering in energy futures and potential pump price spikes, with some posts flagging negotiation signals easing prices slightly. Matters for energy markets as geopolitics overrides other factors and boosts speculative longs. Read →
Commodity strategy pros analyze the latest COT data revealing Brent net longs more than doubling on Middle East tensions and WTI buying, while wheat shorts cut sharply amid Black Sea worries. Copper sees modest buying on inventory tightness; natgas shorts widen. Key for positioning as risk appetite improves across commodities except natgas. Read →
Traders report grains waking up with KC wheat up 19% since late June and oats +16% weekly, extending softs strength amid El Niño, hot/dry weather, and export disruptions. Positions remain long as trends establish; some note fertilizers lagging. Matters for ag markets as bullish momentum broadens beyond initial leaders. Read →
Metals traders note silver buyers entering at current levels around $57/oz after earlier calls for support, targeting $65 by week's end despite resistance and volatility. COT shows mixed metals sentiment with some net long reductions. Matters as physical traders watch for sustained momentum in precious metals amid broader commodity moves. Read →
Retail and quant accounts summarize the week with standout energy gains (Brent +16%, WTI +15%) contrasting sharp declines in coffee (-11%), lean hogs, and cattle. Grains and some metals mixed amid positioning shifts. Matters for traders tracking sector rotation and weekly performance in futures. Read →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.