Last price as of Fri, Jul 17, 6:33 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
The Hormuz Chokepoint removal has begun: Chevron explores Hormuz bypass pipeline across Syria for Iraqi oil. Iran directs Houthis to prepare Red Sea closure if US strikes power grid. Crude relatively stable as further SPR crude dumps overhang market. Refined products (gasoline, diesel) stay close to record margins up over 200% YTD. Cocoa up $228 (+4.3%) on European cocoa grindings falling more than expected. Platinum down $46 (-2.8%) on broad precious metals weakness amid rising rate expectations. Dutch TTF up $1.52 (+2.8%) on renewed geopolitical supply risks in the Middle East. Crude up $1.74 (+2.1%) on escalating US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz flows. Copper down $0.12 (-1.8%) on escalating US-Iran conflict triggering broad metals selloff. Cotton down $1.23 (-1.6%).
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long Dec26/Dec27 TTF calendar spread on expected European storage congestion pressuring near-term prices relative to 2027.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Oil prices rose in early trade as the U.S. struck bridges in Iran to cut supply routes to the Strait of Hormuz; the key waterway carries one-fifth of global oil, with Iran responding by striking U.S. infrastructure, pushing front-month WTI to $79.62 per barrel. Read →
Escalating U.S.-Iran conflict raises the risk of Strait of Hormuz closure, which would trigger a renewed global oil supply crunch and severely disrupt energy markets. Read →
Brent rose above $85 and WTI near $80 on track for a roughly 12% weekly gain, the largest since April, as U.S.-Iran escalation disrupts Middle East supply flows. Read →
Brent futures rose $1.05 to $85.28 a barrel and WTI rose $1.03 to $79.98 after US strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran directing Houthis to prepare closing the Red Sea route if power infrastructure is hit. Both benchmarks are on track for over 11% weekly gains amid broken truce limiting Strait of Hormuz flows. The moves reflect heightened supply disruption risks from Gulf escalation. Read →
Chevron plans to sign non-binding accords Friday with Iraq to advance investment in West Qurna-2 and Nasiriyah fields while joining a consortium studying a pipeline to Syria's coast. The moves aim to bypass the Strait of Hormuz amid war-related disruptions that previously carried 20% of global oil. Gulf producers are accelerating alternative export routes. Read →
Iraq halted loadings at all Basra terminals Thursday after a drone struck an oil tanker, though no damage or fire occurred and operations resumed shortly after. The incident adds to tanker and port security concerns in the Gulf amid broader US-Iran hostilities. Sources described it as not a direct attack. Read →
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said oil security remains critical and the world should worry if Hormuz flows do not improve within weeks. He spoke amid ongoing US-Iran strikes that have limited tanker traffic through the strait. The warning highlights risks to global supply if disruptions persist. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures slide 2% to two-month low at $2.888/MMBtu on 41 Bcf storage build, rising output and LNG maintenance.
Scott DiSavino · Reuters · Thu, Jul 16, 4:45 PM ET
U.S. natural gas futures for August delivery fell 6.6 cents or 2.3% to settle at $2.888/MMBtu on Thursday, the lowest close since May 12. The EIA reported a 41 Bcf injection for the week ended July 10, near the 43 Bcf consensus and five-year average of 45 Bcf, lifting storage to 3,024 Bcf or 181 Bcf above the five-year norm. Lower 48 output rose to 110.3 Bcf/d in July while LNG feedgas held at 17.4 Bcf/d amid Freeport LNG maintenance, adding to ample supply pressure. Read →
Working gas in Lower 48 storage totaled 3,024 Bcf as of July 10 after a 41 Bcf net increase from the prior week. Stocks sit 21 Bcf below year-ago levels yet 181 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,843 Bcf. The in-line build narrows the surplus slightly while production eases and LNG feedgas dips due to maintenance. Read →
The EIA print of +41 Bcf landed in the 38-45 Bcf range, ending a streak of bearish surprises. Lower 48 production eased to 108.5 Bcf/d and LNG feedgas slipped to 17.3 Bcf/d with Freeport's multi-train turnaround running into late August, offset partly by Sabine Pass Train 4 returning. Front-month futures hold in a lower range near $2.85/MMBtu after breaking below $3.00. Read →
August natural gas futures resumed a downward trend after the EIA's 41 Bcf build, which was below expectations and the five-year average. The smaller-than-average injection narrows the storage surplus to 181 Bcf but fails to support prices amid ongoing supply and demand dynamics. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF holds near 15-week highs near €55/MWh as Middle East conflict disrupts LNG flows and slows EU storage refills.
TP ICAP executed the first physically settled trade on Joule using an instrument indexed to the Argus TTF day-ahead assessment on July 7. The move expands hedging tools tied to the European benchmark as LNG replaces lost Russian pipeline supply and TTF solidifies its role as the primary reference for global LNG procurement. Read →
S&P Global Platts proposed new daily assessments for spreads including JKM versus TTF derivatives. The benchmarks would give traders clearer signals on the Europe-Asia arbitrage that has driven recent cargo diversions amid elevated Asian prices and Middle East supply risks. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM capacity auction clears at $325/MW-day cap, 6.8 GW short of reliability target amid data-center demand surge.
PJM extended its Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert (NERC EEA 1) through July 16 and Hot Weather Alert through at least July 17 amid high temperatures and transmission congestion. The alerts direct operators to maximize available generation and defer maintenance as peak loads are expected to test the system during the heat wave. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures rose 0.85% to $129.85/t on muted India imports and China supply concerns.
Newcastle thermal coal futures climbed 0.85% to $129.85 per tonne on July 16. Muted Indian purchases due to a weak rupee and higher domestic output offset broader energy rebounds. This keeps prices near March lows despite the daily gain. Read →
USDA reported 1.77 million metric tons of 2026/27 soybean sales for the week ending July 9, led by 1.056 million tons to China and 624,600 tons to unknown destinations. Old-crop soybean sales reached 188,300 tons. Strong China demand supports U.S. export flows amid competitive pricing versus Brazil. Read →
Escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted Black Sea wheat shipments after Ukraine struck over 100 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, prompting Russia to close the Kerch Strait. Wheat futures surged more than 30 cents amid concerns over Russia's export capacity. Tighter global supplies amplify the impact. Read →
The report details U.S. export sales activity for the week ending July 9 across grains, oilseeds, cotton and livestock. New-crop soybean sales stood out while old-crop corn and cotton hit marketing-year lows. Data informs near-term export flow expectations. Read →
Cotton futures advanced on reports of flooding rains in Texas from a tropical system. Coffee and cocoa showed mixed moves with harvest delays noted in Brazil and Vietnam. Weather developments directly affect U.S. cotton supply prospects. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Storm threat in Chile and Iran tensions drive copper lower overnight.
Sinopec completed a pilot using its rapid adsorption-desorption process on produced water from the Yuanba gas field, yielding industrial-grade lithium carbonate. The method cuts costs over 35% versus conventional routes and shortens processing. It adds a potential domestic supply stream for China, which imports most of its lithium amid surging EV and storage demand. Read →
Copper slipped in after-hours trade after a Category 5 atmospheric river threatened Chile's central copper belt with up to 150 mm of rain and power outages. Escalating US-Iran hostilities triggered broader metals selling, though copper held steadier than gold or silver due to the supply risk. LME three-month copper closed at $13,585/t with cash metal up nearly 8% year-to-date. Read →
First Quantum Minerals is running a process to sell a minority stake in its large undeveloped Taca Taca copper-gold-molybdenum project in Argentina's Salta province. Interest reportedly includes Rio Tinto and Japanese traders Mitsubishi and Mitsui seeking long-term supply. The asset could produce over 320,000 tonnes of copper annually at peak, or about 1.5% of global mine output. Read →
The Dak Nong smelter in Vietnam's Dak Nong province produced its first primary aluminium. It is the country's inaugural primary smelter. The development adds new Southeast Asian capacity as global aluminium markets monitor supply additions and energy-transition demand. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP port strike and $900M project approval drive iron ore supply signals amid flat futures.
About 200 unionized operators and maintenance workers at BHP's Port Hedland operations staged an eight-hour stoppage Thursday after stalled pay talks. BHP's shares fell 2.3% as the action marks the first such disruption at the Pilbara hub in 26 years. The world's largest bulk-export terminal handles hundreds of millions of tonnes of iron ore annually, with further talks set for July 21. Read →
BHP approved a $900 million investment in the Ministers North high-grade deposit southeast of Yandi as a satellite to the existing operation. The project will add 20 million tonnes per year of capacity once ramped up, supporting the company's 305 million tonne medium-term target, with first ore expected in FY29. Site works begin this month under a joint venture with Itochu and Mitsui. Read →
China imported 628.86 million tonnes of iron ore in the first half of 2026, up 6.3% year-on-year per GACC data. June imports reached 112.68 million tonnes, up 15.3% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year, as mills built stocks ahead of summer demand. Daily crude steel output at major mills fluctuated around 2.0-2.1 million tonnes during June. Read →
HBIS Resources Co. expects a net loss of RMB 115-145 million ($16.9-21.3 million) for the first half of 2026. The Hebei Province-based miner cited ongoing market conditions in its profit warning. The announcement highlights persistent pressure on Chinese steel-related operations amid weak domestic demand. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold and silver hit 8-month lows near $4,000 and $56 as rising oil and US data revive rate-hike bets.
Adrian Ash · BullionVault · Thu, Jul 16, 4:20 PM ET
Spot gold fixed around $3,995/oz and silver around $56.45/oz on Thursday, both new 8-month lows. Resilient June US retail sales and a jump in crude above $80 on US-Iran tensions lifted rate-hike odds. Hawkish Fed expectations and stronger dollar weighed on the metals. Read →
Bank of America technicals flag further downside for gold with a possible test of $3,600 support before a bottom. The bank still recommends modest accumulation below $4,000 and sees miners as attractive at current levels despite cutting its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,360. Read →
Bank of America raised its platinum price target to $3,000/oz and palladium to $2,200/oz for Q4 2026. The upgrades reflect improving fundamentals and auto-sector demand for platinum-group metals. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · IEA report warns full China rare earth export curbs put $6.5T Western output at risk.
The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 states that full implementation of China's expanded October 2025 rare earth export controls, suspended until November 2026, could expose $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China across autos, high-tech, defense and energy sectors. It notes prior April 2025 controls on seven heavy rare earths already forced some automakers to cut output. The report highlights supply concentration risks and the economic stakes of the controls on magnet materials including dysprosium and others. Read →
The IEA report details that China's rare earth export controls, if fully enforced, threaten $6.5 trillion yearly in non-Chinese production while graphite curbs could risk over $300 billion. It records price surges in heavy rare earths and strategic minerals from controls, notes modest diversification gains in rare earth refining from US and Malaysia projects, and stresses stockpiling as a buffer amid ongoing concentration in refining. Read →
Reuters reports the IEA warning that full rollout of China's rare earth export restrictions could jeopardize $6.5 trillion in annual downstream output outside China in automotive, defense and energy sectors. The piece notes China expanded controls in October 2025 with licensing rules but delayed full effect for one year, leaving vulnerabilities exposed for Western manufacturers reliant on Chinese-sourced materials. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Iran's warning to Houthis threatens Red Sea closure amid Hormuz disruptions, lifting tanker rates and dry bulk volatility.
Iran instructed Houthi allies to stand ready to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea oil route if the US attacks Iranian power infrastructure. The threat would simultaneously disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, two key Middle East energy export corridors carrying significant shares of global supplies. This escalates risks for tanker and dry bulk shipping, potentially driving further rate surges and rerouting. Read →
The Baltic Dry Index fell 89 points to 2,840 on July 16, 2026, ending a recent advance amid mixed segment performance. The decline reflects softening demand signals in dry bulk commodity shipping despite broader geopolitical tensions. It signals near-term pressure on rates for iron ore, coal and grain cargoes. Read →
VLCC and other tanker rates rose sharply on key Middle East Gulf routes due to escalating US-Iran hostilities, reduced vessel availability and war-risk premiums. Owners accelerated newbuilding orders while second-hand asset values climbed. The moves highlight direct pressure on crude and product tanker earnings from Hormuz disruptions. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU Commission proposes slower ETS cap cuts and extended free allowances to 2037 to ease industry pressure.
The European Commission will propose cutting the ETS emissions cap reduction rate to around 3.7% annually from 2031, down from 4.3%, with further slowing from 2036. Free allowances for industry would continue until end-2037 instead of phasing out in 2034, tied to decarbonization investments. The changes, affecting power, industry, airlines and shipping, respond to competitiveness concerns while the ETS covers 40% of EU emissions. Read →
The overhaul proposes a 3.7% annual cap reduction rate for 2031-2035 and 1.7% from 2036 in the Emissions Trading System. Free permit phaseout for sectors under the carbon border levy extends to 2037. The moves aim to reduce pressure on industries like steel and cement amid broader climate policy pushback. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid RWA perps hit fresh records as institutions gain seamless on-chain commodity access via Talos integration.
Talos announced integration allowing select institutional clients to access Hyperliquid spot and HIP-3 perpetual futures markets, including equities, commodities like oil and precious metals, and indices, directly in their existing workflows. Hyperliquid averages $6.5B daily perp volume and $9.5B total open interest. The move removes operational friction for firms seeking 24/7 on-chain exposure alongside centralized venues, with Split Research among early live clients. Read →
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies published a July 2026 Energy Comment analyzing crude oil perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, citing Allium on-chain data for open interest and volume figures. Oil perps saw sharp growth post-geopolitical events, with OI exceeding 10M virtual barrels in April and daily volumes often surpassing 10M barrels recently. The study examines 24/7 price discovery implications for traditional oil markets when exchanges are closed. Read →
Open interest in Hyperliquid's real-world-asset perpetuals reached a record $3.6 billion, with total platform OI near $11 billion. RWAs overtook Bitcoin as the largest segment of Hyperliquid's OI book. Growth stems from HIP-3 builder-deployed markets in equities, commodities, and other traditional assets trading 24/7 and settling in USDC. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Chevron advances Iraq oilfield entry with MOUs on West Qurna 2 and Nassiriya amid U.S. ties push.
Chevron will sign MOUs Friday with Iraq to advance its entry into West Qurna 2, which produces about 460,000 bpd, and Nassiriya fields. The deals progress commercial terms toward Chevron taking over operations, previously handled by Lukoil. Iraq's push for U.S. partnerships includes pipeline studies to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Read →
Standard Nuclear shares fell 10% to open at $13.50 in NYSE debut, valuing the Oak Ridge firm at $2.17 billion after slashing its IPO size. It raised $150 million selling 10 million shares at $15 each. The debut reflects investor caution on nuclear supply chain valuations despite AI-driven power demand and U.S. policy support. Read →
SunCoke Energy will release Q2 2026 financial results before market open on July 30, with an earnings call at 11:00 am ET. The coke producer supplies blast furnaces for steel and cast iron under long-term contracts. Results will cover operations in the U.S. and Brazil plus industrial services. Read →
Lundin Mining expects Q2 2026 revenue to rise by about $79 million pre-tax from provisional pricing adjustments on prior concentrate sales. It also flags realized losses of roughly $12 million on gold collar contracts. Full Q2 operations and financial results are due after market close on August 5. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US imposes 25% Section 301 tariffs on most Brazilian imports effective July 22, exempting energy products and beef.
USTR expanded exemptions from the new 25% Brazil tariffs to cover energy products, beef, coffee and aircraft parts after industry input. The carve-outs limit immediate hits to some commodity flows while still targeting sugar, ethanol and machinery. This follows earlier exemptions in broader U.S. tariff actions. Read →
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission convened its monthly open meeting and acted on items including reliability standards for computational load integration and amendments to natural gas storage certificates. Additional proceedings addressed Western grid seams coordination and reactive power rates for gas-fired facilities. Read →
Reuters · Fri, Jun 5 (regulation implementation ongoing in
Indonesia published rules centralizing exports of strategic commodities like coal, palm oil and ferroalloys through state entities to boost revenues and curb under-invoicing. Implementation ramps up through December 2026 with full state control targeted for 2027. The policy affects major global supply chains for energy and metals. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders on X highlight US strikes on bridges, railways, and infrastructure feeding Bandar Abbas port, aiming to cut supply routes for attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation raises risks of broader energy shocks if Iran retaliates against regional infrastructure. Discussions focus on potential further supply disruptions and oil price volatility in the ongoing conflict. Read →
Kpler data shared on X shows only 13 crossings on July 15, mostly via the riskier Iranian route, with minimal use of the Omani corridor. Retail traders in r/oil note persistent low volumes and attacks on tankers, fueling debates on SPR draws, price spikes, and long-term supply tightness from the Iran conflict. Read →
Technical analysts on X discuss gold's brief rebound from 3970 lows but warn of renewed selling pressure below key supports if it fails to hold 4020. Retail traders share setups for shorts near 4020 or longs around 4060-4070, citing US dollar strength and broader market caution in precious metals. Read →
Agricultural traders note wheat's strong gains with KC HRW up over 40 cents amid attacks damaging grain infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine. Limited export traffic through the Kerch Strait and shutdowns at Black Sea facilities are tightening supplies, with bullish momentum also seen in corn and soybeans. Read →
In r/oil daily threads, traders discuss WTI/Brent around $80 with low volatility, citing reduced Persian Gulf exports below 50% of pre-war levels, SPR management, and attacks on tankers. Goldman Sachs warnings of potential surges past $110 if flows collapse contrast with bearish views on Chinese buying and reserves. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Jeff Currie, Senior Advisor at Carlyle, discussed oil market complexities on Bloomberg's The Close. He noted one of the highest crack spreads since the mid-1980s, yet crude futures softened due to significant disruptions. He described the overall energy situation as 'dire.' Watch/Listen →
Jeff Currie joined Rory Johnston to discuss oil market price formation, geopolitical backdrop, and why the current environment differs from past decades. Key point: commodities are not anticipatory; the front of the curve prices today's fundamentals, not expectations. He highlighted dislocations, volatility, and a fragmented system driven by shocks. Watch/Listen →
Arjun Murti (Veriten) released EP220 on Super-Spiked, covering takeaways from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, top surprises, and non-surprises. The episode and video discuss energy macro implications in the ongoing geopolitical context. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
This newsletter is brought to you by BoxWood · The AI-powered programmatic hedge booking system for commodity producers, consumers, refiners, hedge funds, and trading houses. See a live demo →
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.