Last price as of Thu, Jul 16, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude (WTI $79, Brent $84) relatively quiet this morning, but refinery margins continue to rally. Hormuz tanker traffic has fallen Thursday to multi-week lows following renewed US strikes on Iran and Iranian attacks on commercial ships. Europe’s winter nat gas refill turns harder amid Iran war price surge and Qatar LNG outage. Cotton up $3.77 (+4.9%) on increasing oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and adverse weather supporting prices. Platinum up $33 (+2.0%) on tightening supply and steady industrial demand. Tin (SHFE $/mt) down $943 (-1.7%). Dutch TTF down $0.91 (-1.7%). Nickel (SHFE $/mt) up $273 (+1.6%) on easing supply concerns. Coffee down $4.9 (-1.6%).
Kicker: Short September coffee vs long December on improved Brazilian harvest progress and easing El Niño concerns, per recent desk notes.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
European Union gas storage sites stand at about 52% full. The Iran war has pushed European natural gas prices up more than 70% since it began, disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz that carried around 20% of global LNG and wiping out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, making it less profitable for traders to buy and store fuel ahead of winter. Read →
TotalEnergies now expects the Iran conflict to have cut second-quarter output by around 210,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, down from its prior 360,000 boe/d estimate. The milder hit stems mainly from resumed production in the UAE and other Middle East countries. Read →
Higher energy prices from the Iran war are expected to lift TotalEnergies’ second-quarter profits, with upstream earnings rising about $1 billion from Q1 as production resumes in the Middle East. All segments are set to improve except LNG, where earnings will be sharply lower due to weak trading amid declining European demand; hydrocarbon production is forecast near 2.4 million boe/d. Read →
Spot Asian LNG prices rose to about $20.2 per million British thermal units, the highest since late March, after surging about 10% over the past week. Fresh U.S.-Iran hostilities have deepened concerns that shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz will persist. Read →
BHP mined 68.1 million tons of iron ore in its fiscal fourth quarter, down 3% year on year, while copper production fell 5% to 491,900 tons. The miner is pushing ahead with expansions in copper and potash despite the quarterly slips. Read →
US Central Command struck missile and coastal sites on Greater Tunb Island and other targets in two waves Wednesday. Strikes aim to degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after recent attacks on shipping. Renewed action follows Trump's pledge to intensify pressure until Tehran halts strikes and reopens the waterway. Read →
WTI settled at $79.60/bbl after flipping gains and losses, capping an 11% surge over the prior two sessions. US diesel stocks posted a sizable increase. Prices reflect ongoing US-Iran hostilities and risks to Hormuz traffic carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil flows pre-conflict. Read →
Brent traded below $85/bbl after a 12% three-session gain. US airstrikes followed shipping attacks by Iran this week. Markets price in heightened risk to the strategic waterway without full supply evaporation yet. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures hover near $2.90 as waning heat and LNG maintenance curb demand amid ample supply.
Natural gas cash prices fell at most locations on Wednesday due to mixed weather forecasts showing cooling in the Northeast and subdued LNG feedgas demand. Near-normal storage builds are expected as heat eases. Lower physical prices reflect reduced near-term power-burn pull. Read →
Power burn reached year-to-date highs, helping August futures gain slightly on bargain buying and profit-taking after prior weakness. Traders showed little reaction to heat forecasts amid persistent supply overhang. Winter contracts declined as fundamentals stayed loose. Read →
East region storage stood just 1.7% above the five-year average at the start of July, the leanest in the Lower 48, yet a surplus persisted through recent heat waves. Regional demand pulled back as total supply remained ample. Concerns over deficits have faded with cooling forecasts. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF at 54.8 EUR/MWh and JKM at $19.93/MMBtu amid slow EU storage injections and Qatar LNG cuts to Bangladesh.
Ruma Paul and Emily Chow · Reuters · Mon, Jul 6, 2:34 AM ET
QatarEnergy halved its 2026 LNG deliveries under two long-term contracts to Petrobangla due to ongoing disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran blocking shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Petrobangla, Bangladesh's largest LNG buyer last year, is turning to spot purchases and other suppliers to cover the shortfall. The cut tightens Asian supply and supports the JKM premium over TTF. Read →
Petrobangla confirmed its 2026 LNG imports from QatarEnergy will drop 50%, with JKM assessed at $19.436/MMBtu for August delivery on July 14. The reduction stems from war-related shipping constraints and forces greater reliance on the spot market. This adds upward pressure on Asian LNG benchmarks. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM and MISO grids issue heat-driven scarcity alerts as spot prices spike above $300/MWh amid data-center demand surge and capacity shortfalls.
Tim McLaughlin · Reuters · Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 6:34 PM ET
PJM warned of low voltage and heavy transmission congestion on Wednesday as temperatures rose and demand hit 164 GW. Spot prices surged above $300/MWh midday from $30/MWh earlier due to air conditioning loads, with northern Virginia data centers contributing to congestion. The operator also reported its latest capacity auction cleared over $16 billion but fell 7 GW short of reserve targets, highlighting data center load growth outpacing supply. Read →
Tim McLaughlin · Reuters · Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 10:57 PM ET
MISO issued an emergency energy alert effective until 8 p.m. EDT Wednesday covering 15 states after plant outages, high temperatures and unexpected demand strained reserves. Wholesale prices spiked above $900/MWh at the Michigan hub and around $600/MWh at Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota hubs. The alert responds directly to tight conditions from outages and air conditioning loads. Read →
PJM's 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction cleared at the $325/MW-day price cap across the region, procuring 138,318 MW but falling 6,831 MW short of the reliability target. Demand forecasts rose about 2 GW largely from data center additions, yielding only 525 MW of new resources. Without the cap, average prices would have reached higher levels, underscoring persistent supply-demand imbalance from load growth. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures rose 0.82% to $128.75/t on July 15 amid tightening Chinese spot supply.
CCTD Bohai Rim spot prices for 5500K thermal coal closed at 801 RMB/ton on July 13, up 1 RMB daily, with similar gains in lower grades. Tight upstream supply from rain, safety checks and lower mine utilization at 78.7% combined with port inventory drawdown supports the move ahead of peak summer demand. Read →
Gavin Maguire · Reuters · Thu, Jul 16, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Drought-driven low water levels on the Rhine and Danube force barges to cut loads sharply, lifting freight rates for coal, fuels and chemicals moving inland from ports. This logistics squeeze multiplies risks from Middle East tensions and could raise delivered costs for European power and industrial coal users. Read →
Polish lignite mines reported 2024 methane emissions roughly 1,000 times lower than prior independent tests in EU-mandated checks. Experts flag potential under-measurement at open-pit operations, with implications for compliance costs and credibility of emission data in European coal supply. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Wheat surges 5% on Black Sea export disruptions from escalated Russia-Ukraine attacks, lifting corn and soybeans.
Wheat futures rose 30-35 cents early Wednesday as escalated attacks threaten Black Sea shipping lanes, with Russia’s July wheat exports projected down 13-20%. The risk premium spills over to corn and soybeans via technical buying and spillover strength. Disruptions to the world’s top wheat exporter tighten global supplies and support U.S. export prospects. Read →
Wheat futures jumped on speculative buying after IKAR and SovEcon cut Russia’s July exports to 2 million tons due to shipping slowdowns from the Ukraine conflict. Hot, dry weather threatens U.S. spring wheat and Western European crops, while France’s AgriMer lowered 2026 soft wheat output 4%. Reduced Russian flows could shift demand toward U.S. wheat. Read →
Wheat led gains on rising Black Sea export concerns from geopolitical tensions, while corn and soybeans paused awaiting clearer weather signals. Analysts note row crops await decisive weather developments before committing to direction. The wheat move highlights export flow risks that could indirectly support U.S. grains. Read →
Speculators became net sellers of Chicago corn and soybeans for the first time in nearly two months. Position unwinds remove a key support layer for the grains complex. The shift follows recent price volatility and precedes further weather and export developments. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · BHP copper output falls 5% in Q4 with FY27 guidance cut on Escondida grade decline; Rio Tinto H1 copper equivalent up 3%.
BHP produced 491.9 kt copper in Q4 ended June 30, down 5% YoY, with Escondida output lower on falling grades and Pampa Norte down 21%. Full-year FY26 output reached 1.95 Mt, down 3%, and the miner guided FY27 copper to 1.65-1.80 Mt due to further Escondida grade decline, tightening near-term supply expectations for the key energy-transition metal. Read →
BHP reported FY copper production of 1.95 million metric tons, down 3% from the prior year, missing its 1.9-2.0 Mt guidance range. The miner flagged further output declines ahead from lower grades at its giant Escondida mine in Chile, underscoring persistent supply constraints despite strong realized prices. Read →
Rio Tinto posted 3% YoY growth in H1 copper-equivalent production to support unchanged 2026 copper guidance of 800-870 kt, driven by 31% growth at Oyu Tolgoi. Lithium output jumped 53% YoY to 27.3 kt LCE on new project ramp-ups, with lowered copper unit cost guidance signaling operational gains in battery and industrial metals. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP posts record FY26 iron ore output of 291.2 Mt and 3% higher realised prices despite China's curbs.
BHP reported Western Australia iron ore output of 74.8 Mt in Q4 and full-year record 291.2 Mt on 100% basis, with average realised prices rising 3% to $84.56/wmt in FY26. The results came despite purchasing restrictions by China's state buyer amid contract talks. Higher prices and steady supply support the iron ore benchmark amid flat global steel demand. Read →
Rio Tinto achieved its highest Pilbara iron ore production since 2018 with Q2 sales up 7% YoY to 85.3 Mt. BHP reported record FY26 iron ore output of 265 Mt and guidance of 260-272 Mt for FY27. Strong operational delivery from both majors underscores resilient supply even as Chinese port inventories sit near 160 Mt and steel output remains subdued. Read →
The 62% Fe iron ore CFR China benchmark settled at $98.88 per tonne on July 15, up 0.6% weekly. SGX futures hovered near $100.55/t amid mixed signals from record miner output and steady Chinese port stocks. Prices reflect balanced supply against flat domestic steel demand and export-driven production. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold trims losses after softer-than-expected US PPI data amid ongoing Middle East tensions and rate-hike bets.
Spot gold pared earlier losses after US producer prices fell more than expected in June. Escalating Middle East tensions keep inflation and higher-for-longer rate concerns in focus, pressuring the metal. The move highlights gold's sensitivity to both data surprises and geopolitical oil spikes. Read →
Ghana's Gold Board purchased 50-54 metric tons of artisanal gold in H1 2026. Output is projected to match or exceed last year's record 104 tons, supporting FX earnings despite lower prices. The surge follows reforms curbing smuggling in Africa's top gold producer. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China export curbs and US tariffs on graphite/magnets drive rare earth and critical minerals complex.
USA Rare Earth produced commercial-grade dysprosium oxide and neodymium-praseodymium oxide at its Wheat Ridge, Colorado facility from recycled NdFeB magnet scrap sourced from its Stillwater, Oklahoma plant. Scrap is projected to supply up to 30% of future magnetic rare earth oxide feedstock. The milestone advances domestic heavy rare earth separation outside China, where dysprosium prices reached $2,100/kg in North America. Read →
China exported 6,000 kilograms of gallium to Japan in May, the sole overseas destination that month per customs data, marking the first resumption after a four-month suspension. The move coincides with relaxed rare earth magnet shipments globally. Gallium is critical for semiconductors, fiber optics, EV chargers and renewables. Read →
Latest U.S. Section 301 tariffs on Chinese graphite and permanent magnets reached full effect July 15. Importers face higher costs and supply disruptions, accelerating efforts to diversify away from China. Alternative non-Chinese sources will require years to scale. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz tanker traffic drops to multi-week lows amid US-Iran strikes and attacks on vessels, lifting risk premiums.
Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply on Wednesday as renewed US strikes on Iran and Iranian attacks on commercial ships raised safety concerns. Data showed the lowest levels in two months for some metrics, with vessels rerouting or idling. The chokepoint carries about 21% of global seaborne oil trade, directly pressuring VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax earnings via higher war-risk premiums. Read →
Performance Shipping extended the time charter for its 2011-built 104,623 dwt Aframax M/T Blue Moon with American Eagle Tankers for 24 months at an average gross rate of $40,500 per day. The deal averages $43,000/day in year one and $38,000/day in year two. It provides earnings visibility for the mid-size tanker amid volatile spot markets influenced by Middle East disruptions. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS reform plans to slow post-2030 cap cuts and loosen MSR drive price caution ahead of Friday announcement.
The European Commission prepares to slow annual emissions reductions in the EU ETS and reduce the rate at which the Market Stability Reserve absorbs surplus allowances starting in the 2030s. Analysts expect the changes to ease supply tightness over time. The move matters for EUA prices as it signals less aggressive scarcity in the compliance market. Read →
European Union Allowance prices eased Wednesday with speculative funds reducing net length ahead of the Commission’s Friday reform package. UK Allowances rose more than 3% after an MEP signaled a possible EU-UK ETS linkage deal next week. Position adjustments reflect positioning for policy-driven supply shifts. Read →
Market participants anticipate Commission proposals that will materially slow the EU ETS linear reduction factor after 2030 while introducing a new multi-year industrial decarbonisation funding vehicle. Uncertainty over how the €30 billion-scale support interacts with free allocation and the MSR creates downside risk for prices. The reforms target industrial competitiveness without derailing the overall emissions trajectory. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · SEC Crypto Task Force met Hyperliquid reps July 14 to discuss on-chain derivatives and regulatory paths.
The U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force held a formal July 14, 2026 meeting with Hyperliquid Policy Center, Trade.xyz operator XYZ Ltd., and Sullivan & Cromwell to review the Hyperliquid ecosystem and pathways for compliant on-chain derivatives access. No enforcement actions or commitments resulted, but the session marks official dialogue on tokenized asset and perpetual futures regulation. HYPE token rose over 5% overnight following the news. Read →
Distributed on-chain RWA value excluding stablecoins reached about $33.5 billion early July 2026, nearly tripling from $11.8, 14.1 billion a year earlier per RWA.xyz data. Commodities, mostly tokenized gold led by PAXG and XAUT, contribute several billion dollars alongside treasuries and private credit. Derivatives volume for RWA perps hit record levels while spot trading remains thinner. Read →
Allium's cross-chain dataset shows $29.5 billion of real-world assets tokenized onchain as of July 15, 2026, up 173% year-over-year. Tokenized US Treasuries and money market funds lead at $16.3 billion, with commodities at $4.3 billion. Growth reflects accelerating institutional adoption of on-chain versions of traditional assets including gold and other commodities. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Iran war-driven oil and gas price surge lifts majors' Q2 trading and upstream earnings outlooks.
Trafigura has abandoned a proposed 2,000 MW transmission line to export Angolan hydropower to DRC and Zambian copper and cobalt mines. The trader signed a 2024 non-binding agreement with ProMarks and Angola but has now withdrawn. Other projects by Meridia Energy and HYDRO-LINK are advancing to supply the mining region. Read →
BP reached an agreement to sell minority interests in more than 10 companies from its BP Ventures portfolio to Verdane. The company will retain a small number of investments. The deal supports portfolio simplification and is expected to close by Q2 2027. Read →
ARC Resources shareholders voted in favor of Shell's $16.4 billion acquisition of the Canadian natural gas producer. The deal gives Shell a larger North American gas position. Regulatory approvals remain, with the transaction expected in the second half of 2026. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US Senate unveils Russia sanctions bill with 100% tariffs on top buyers of Russian oil and gas.
Timothy Gardner and Patricia Zengerle · Reuters · Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
US senators released a revised bill allowing the president to impose 100% tariffs on goods from the top five buyers of Russian oil and natural gas. The measure targets energy revenue funding Russia's war in Ukraine and eases an earlier 500% proposal. Democratic staff warned the vague criteria and lack of congressional oversight could expand tariffs to more countries including EU allies. Read →
The US Trade Representative announced 25% Section 301 tariffs on most Brazilian imports effective July 22 after a year-long probe into unfair trade practices. Exemptions cover beef, coffee, energy products, aircraft and rare earths. A separate forced-labor investigation could add another 12.5% tariff by July 24. Read →
The Office of the US Trade Representative confirmed 25% tariffs on select Brazilian goods following findings of unreasonable and discriminatory practices harming US exporters. The year-long investigation targeted issues including digital trade and deforestation. Negotiations with Brazil continue despite the tariffs taking effect next week. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Ukrainian and Russian strikes on Black Sea and Sea of Azov logistics infrastructure are escalating risks for global wheat trade. Ukraine has reportedly lost about a third of its Black Sea port grain export capacity due to intensified attacks. Traders note supply concerns and a risk premium building in prices amid tight balances. Read →
CEO Ross Bhappu purchased 74,000 shares of Energy Fuels (UUUU) for about $968k on July 7, followed by a director buying 4,000 shares. The moves signal confidence in US uranium production tied to domestic energy security and rising power demand for nuclear. Traders highlight the alignment as notable for the sector. Read →
Wheat prices jumped around 4-5% with macro drivers including Black Sea disruptions, USDA supply cuts, and tight global balances cited as main factors. Leveraged funds are adding longs while traders watch for follow-through amid geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Read →
A drone crashed into an oil tanker at Iraq's Basra terminal with no reported damage or fire, but all oil loading terminals suspended crude flows per sources. Traders note limited immediate price reaction due to no physical impact but highlight added geopolitical risk in the region. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Andy Lipow says markets had hoped for stronger supplies post-US-Iran MOU but now recognize persistent geopolitical risk in the Strait. Optimism on surpluses fading, especially if strait shuts down. Lipow estimates any Hormuz fee could add $16/bbl to crude. Watch/Listen →
Carole Nakhle notes ongoing US-Iran talks amid strikes keep markets hopeful attacks stay targeted/limited vs full war. Distinguishes announcement from actual implementation of toll. Markets pricing risk but not assuming worst case yet. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.