Last price as of Wed, Jul 15, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude oil (WTI $80, Brent $85) stable today following the price rally since the weekend. Brent backwardation (down sloping curve) is hitting a one-month high on the renewed Hormuz supply risk. Prompt Brent futures are trading almost $9/bbl above the six-month contract, the widest premium since June 10. The crude forward curve could encourage governments to do one more smaller global SPR release before year end to remove this spot tension. Cotton up $3.83 (+5.0%) on geopolitical tensions lifting oil prices and supporting prices via higher input costs and weather concerns. Wheat up $18 (+2.8%) on UK feed wheat futures hitting 1yr high amid global tensions. HRC up $8 (+2.0%). Cocoa up $101 (+1.7%). Tin (SHFE $/mt) up $794 (+1.5%). Corn up $5 (+1.1%) on USDA July WASDE cutting US ending stocks more than expected, tightening supply outlook.
Kicker: Long Dec cocoa vs short Dec sugar on El Nino weather risks tightening West African supply, Goldman Sachs.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent futures climbed 1.2% to $85.72 a barrel and WTI gained 0.8% to near $80 as Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports and Iran launched strikes on U.S. regional targets. Attacks have disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil supplies. Read →
The national average gasoline price hit $3.84 a gallon, up nearly 10 cents in a week, with analysts forecasting a return above $4 soon if Hormuz disruptions persist. Higher crude costs from renewed U.S.-Iran conflict are feeding directly into retail fuel prices. Read →
Brent crude jumped 10% to $83 a barrel after Trump said he would reinstate a naval blockade and 20% fee on Hormuz cargo, though he later backtracked on the fee. The renewed conflict has nearly halted tanker traffic through the strait while disrupting refining capacity across the Gulf. Read →
Rio Tinto shipped a record 85.3 million metric tons of iron ore from its Pilbara operations in Q2, up 7% from a year earlier. The miner also lowered annual cost guidance for its copper business despite limited direct impacts from Middle East conflict. Read →
Prompt Brent futures traded $8.92/bbl above the six-month contract, the widest premium since June 10, flipping the market into backwardation. Traders priced in renewed risks from US-Iran strikes and slower tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East benchmarks Oman, Dubai and Murban also moved to premiums, signaling tight near-term crude availability. Read →
June crude processing fell 18% year-on-year to 51.24 million tons, the weakest since March 2020. Refiners cut runs after imports hit a near-decade low due to Persian Gulf shipment disruptions and softer demand. The drop highlights how Hormuz tensions are rippling into Asian refining margins and global product balances. Read →
Tankers Rani and Amil, carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude, switched signals to Karachi on Tuesday. The vessels were already outside the Gulf when the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian shipping. The move signals efforts to find safe haven as flows face heightened risk. Read →
Four-week average seaborne crude exports held near 4.21 million barrels per day through July 12 despite Ukrainian strikes on refineries forcing more crude overseas. Floating storage volumes remain elevated near early-year highs. Persistent export pressure amid sanctions and attacks underscores supply-side strain in non-OPEC barrels. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures hover near $2.91 amid ample supplies, softer weather forecasts and Freeport LNG maintenance weighing on demand.
August NYMEX natural gas futures struggled midday Tuesday as weather forecasts softened for the second half of July. Robust Lower 48 production and comfortable inventories kept prices in check despite near-term heat supporting power burn. NGI projects a 44 Bcf storage injection for the week ended July 10, near the five-year average. Read →
Physical natural gas prices posted hefty gains Monday amid sweltering heat across much of the Lower 48 boosting cooling demand. Prompt-month futures declined for a fourth straight session on subdued LNG exports and near-record production. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF surges to €54.3/MWh on US-Iran tensions and Hormuz blockade fears, lifting JKM amid Asia-Europe LNG cargo competition.
Turkey's hydro output rose nearly 60% year-on-year in January-May, slashing gas-fired power generation more than 40% to 17.48 TWh. As Europe's fourth-largest gas consumer, this has boosted storage injections around 18% above prior-year levels and eased regional inventory pressure. Renewables now supply over 60% of Turkey's electricity, reinforcing weaker European gas demand amid the summer injection season. Read →
EU gas storage stood at around 49% capacity as of early July, similar to 2021 levels and below recent years, with injections running below the 10-year summer average. Low starting levels from April (28% capacity) and competition for LNG cargoes from Asia risk missing winter refill targets. ACER urges closer monitoring and active management to meet Gas Storage Regulation requirements. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM's 2028/29 capacity auction clears at $325/MW-day cap, short 6,831 MW amid data-center demand surge.
PJM's latest capacity auction for the 2028/2029 period cleared at the $325/MW-day temporary cap set to limit consumer bill impacts. The auction procured capacity short of the reliability target by 6,831 MW as data center load growth outpaces new supply. Capacity prices, which flow into utility bills across 13 states and DC, have risen over 1,000% since 2024 due to the imbalance. Read →
PJM's auction tied a $16.4 billion record total cost, with data centers responsible for roughly $6.3 billion according to the independent market monitor. The grid fell short of its power supply reliability goal for the delivery year starting June 2028. Power-hungry data centers have driven supply costs up more than 60% in the largest US electric grid. Read →
PJM released results showing the auction will add $6.3 billion in charges to customers in 13 Eastern states and DC over the next three years, driven by data center electricity needs. The grid operator noted demand growth continues to outpace supply additions. PJM is pursuing market reforms and backstop procurement to address the shortfall. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures slide below $128/t as China June output drops 9.7% YoY on safety checks after deadly blast.
China produced 381 million tons of coal in June, down 9.7% year-on-year, the largest drop since 2016. The decline followed a late-May mine explosion in Shanxi that killed 82 and triggered broad safety inspections. Reduced domestic supply in the world's top producer adds support to seaborne thermal and met coal prices amid ongoing weak demand. Read →
European API2 futures dropped below $115/t on cooler weather, higher wind output and rising German power prices. Chinese Qinhuangdao 5,500 NAR spot prices fell to $119/t with port stocks at 30 million tons amid typhoons and hydro strength. Australian thermal and HCC met coal also eased on subdued Chinese buying and seasonal steel slowdown. Read →
Railway coal shipments from Russia to China via border crossings totaled 5.8 million tons in January-June, down 29.5% from a year earlier. Weak utility and industrial demand in China plus competition from domestic supply drove the fall. Limited BAM/Trans-Siberian rail capacity and weather disruptions added further constraints on exports. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Wheat surges on Russia Sea of Azov shipping halt disrupting 25% of its exports amid Ukraine attacks.
Russia restricted shipping through the Kerch Strait and Azov-Don channel after Ukrainian drone strikes hit multiple vessels, including grain ships, in the Sea of Azov. The route handles about a quarter of Russian wheat exports as the world's top exporter. The agriculture ministry said cargoes may reroute via Black Sea or Baltic ports to meet obligations. Read →
September Kansas City wheat closed up 11.75 cents as analysts cited closure of the Kerch Strait and Azov-Don channel, typically 25-30% of Russian wheat exports. December corn fell 2.75 cents and November soybeans 3.75 cents on easing US heat concerns. The move built on last week's USDA data showing tight US wheat supplies. Read →
StoneX Coffee Team · StoneX · Tue, Jul 14, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
September Arabica coffee futures traded in a 29.55-cent range and ended with minimal net change after rallying toward prior highs then fading. Robusta September settled up $15 at 3,849 amid BRL strength and 118 lots of certified stock cancellation. Markets remain unsettled following recent sharp moves. Read →
September cocoa futures rose 0.62% to $5,806 per metric ton. December cotton #2 settled at 80.56 cents per pound, up 0.38%. No major new drivers reported for either soft commodity in the session. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Rio Tinto cuts 2026 copper cost guidance to 30-50 cents/lb on H1 outperformance.
Rio Tinto reported 3% YoY growth in first-half copper equivalent production. Oyu Tolgoi copper output rose over 30% in H1. The miner lowered full-year copper C1 cost guidance to US 30-50 cents per pound from 65-75 cents. Read →
Multiple 2026 sulfur supply shocks from the Middle East, China and Russia have raised nickel HPAL costs. The structural changes are expected to persist even if sulfur prices ease. Copper SX-EW operations also face feedstock pressure from the shortages. Read →
LME three-month prices moved higher early on July 14 with tin up 2.25%. Nickel led gains while aluminium and zinc posted modest declines. Lead stocks jumped more than 80,000 tonnes. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Rio Tinto Q2 iron ore sales beat estimates at 85.3 Mt Pilbara (+7% YoY) as BHP Port Hedland strike looms.
Rio Tinto sold 85.3 Mt of Pilbara iron ore in Q2, beating Visible Alpha consensus of 83.6 Mt and up 7% YoY; global sales reached 88.8 Mt (+5% YoY). First-half sales of 157.7 Mt leave the miner needing a strong H2 to meet full-year guidance. Higher diesel costs from Middle East tensions lifted the cost curve but Pilbara unit cash cost guidance held; shares rose on the beat. Read →
Hundreds of workers at BHP’s Port Hedland iron ore operations will stage an eight-hour stoppage on July 16 after six months of failed talks on a four-year labor deal. The action, the largest at BHP’s iron ore ops in decades, threatens disruption to $80M daily throughput. Unions and company had a scheduled meeting on July 14. Read →
Imported iron ore inventories at China’s 47 major ports fell 1.36 Mt (0.8%) to 173.26 Mt as of July 9, the second consecutive weekly decline but still 20.8% above year-ago levels. New arrivals dropped sharply to 25.88 Mt (-10.1% WoW) amid rising port congestion (125 vessels on July 9). Stocks remain elevated overall. Read →
SGX IODEX iron ore futures settled at $100.05/t (+1.58 or +1.60%) with the contract trading between $98.55-$100.35; prior settle was $98.47. The move aligns with recent physical price recovery and optimism around downstream Chinese demand signals. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rebounds above $4,000/oz on soft US CPI, tempering September Fed hike odds amid oil spike.
New York gold futures slipped about 1% to near $4,030/oz in early trading after Tuesday's 2%+ gain. Higher oil prices from renewed US-Iran tensions raise inflation risks and real-yield pressure, offsetting softer CPI relief. Analysts note the $4,000 support holds but conviction remains low for safe-haven flows. Read →
Genesis Minerals will acquire Vault Minerals in an all-stock deal valuing the combined entity at A$12.6 billion ($8.71 billion). The merger creates Australia's third-largest gold producer with expected annual output of 600,000-700,000 ounces and A$2 billion in synergies. Deal ends takeover battle and signals further mid-tier consolidation in the sector. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · NioCorp CEO says critical mineral trade deals with US allies could be announced any day amid push for strategic reserves.
NioCorp Developments CEO Mark Smith stated that critical mineral trade deals could be announced any day. He highlighted the company's role in establishing a strategic reserve of critical minerals and rare earths. The comments underscore accelerating US efforts to secure non-Chinese supply chains for permanent magnets and other key materials. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Iran's Hormuz attacks halt VLCC shuttle runs, spiking tanker risk and oil prices.
Iran struck three crude supertankers with missiles and drones overnight, halting short-haul shuttle tanker operations through the Strait of Hormuz. The attacks raise risks for the chokepoint handling one-fifth of global oil trade, pushing front-month WTI up 0.7% to $79.91 per barrel in early Asian trade. Read →
The Stolt Magnesium chemical tanker suffered an engine-room fire after an external device explosion 40 nautical miles off Oman early Tuesday. Crew is safe and fighting the blaze; the incident follows recent Iranian cruise-missile strikes on UAE VLCCs in Hormuz that killed one sailor. Read →
Performance Shipping extended a two-year time charter for its Aframax tanker M/T Blue Moon at an average $40,500 per day. The deal locks in strong earnings for the vessel amid elevated tanker rates from Hormuz disruptions. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS reform anticipation lifts EUA prices to 81.50 EUR as speculative buying builds ahead of July 17 proposal.
European carbon surged after Tuesday morning’s auction as speculative length-building in anticipation of Friday’s EU ETS reform package presentation continued to drown out other market signals. Prices advanced for a third day amid the positioning. The move highlights how policy expectations are overriding other factors like Persian Gulf tensions and power prices. Read →
The European Commission delayed its EU ETS reform proposal to July 17. The package includes a slower cap reduction, extended free allocations for industry, Market Stability Reserve changes, scope expansion to waste and extra-European flights, and revenue transparency measures. Trading has been subdued while participants await the details, with negotiations targeted for early 2027 and implementation in 2028. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid's permissionless HIP-3 markets for stocks and commodities hit nearly 50% of daily perp volume, overtaking native crypto.
SEC Crypto Task Force staff met July 14 with Hyperliquid Policy Center, XYZ Ltd. (trade.xyz) and Sullivan & Cromwell to review the protocol's tech, market infrastructure and regulatory approaches for decentralized perpetual markets and 24/7 DEX trading. The session follows a July 9 CFTC comment filing urging exemptions for onchain developers and self-custodial wallets. Read →
Hyperliquid's HIP-3 permissionless perpetual markets for stocks, commodities and indices accounted for roughly 50% of the exchange's daily volume on Tuesday, up from 2% at the start of the year. Builder-deployed contracts led weekday trading sessions this month, signaling the platform's shift toward a general onchain derivatives layer. Read →
HIP-3 markets now represent about 50% of Hyperliquid's daily perpetual futures volume, driven by onchain stock and commodity perps. The permissionless framework lets builders create markets around real-world assets, accelerating adoption of decentralized trading for equities and commodities. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil price surge from Iran conflict drives major producers' Q2 earnings previews and $5B geothermal M&A bid.
Indonesia’s PT Barito Renewables Energy made a non-binding cash offer for Energy Development Corp. (EDC), backed by First Gen, valuing equity at more than $5 billion or up to $7 billion including debt. The deal would expand Barito’s geothermal footprint into the Philippines. It signals aggressive consolidation in renewables amid energy transition pressures. Read →
BP expects stronger oil and gas prices plus robust trading and refining margins to lift Q2 earnings by $1.8-2.1 billion in upstream and $1.2-1.4 billion in products versus Q1. It flags around $1 billion in impairments mainly on transition businesses. Oil trading results should edge higher after an exceptionally strong Q1. Read →
BP previewed slightly higher Q2 oil trading results after an exceptionally strong prior quarter, benefiting from the Iran-related price rally. The update also pointed to lower net debt. It underscores trading desks capitalizing on volatility in physical oil markets. Read →
Aker BP reported record operating cash flow of $3.1 billion in Q2 2026, with EBITDA rising to $3.35 billion from $2.22 billion a year earlier, beating consensus. Higher energy prices from Middle East tensions drove the gains despite elevated project costs. The Norwegian producer highlighted robust performance in its upstream portfolio. Read →
Shell initiated tendering for drilling services at the offshore Dragon gas field in Venezuela, targeting four wells from Q2 2027 with first gas in 2029. The 4.2 TCF project would supply Atlantic LNG in Trinidad. It marks a concrete step forward after sanctions-related delays, expanding Shell’s regional gas footprint. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US unveils revised Russia sanctions bill capping tariffs at 100% on top five Russian oil buyers including China and India.
US senators unveiled a revised bipartisan Russia sanctions bill that lowers the maximum tariff on major buyers of Russian oil and gas from 500% to 100% for the top five purchasers. The top crude buyers are China, India, Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan. The measure also sanctions Russia's shadow fleet and energy projects while allowing Trump to waive penalties in the US national interest. Read →
Bipartisan legislation backed by President Trump would authorize tariffs of up to 100% on the top five purchasers of Russian crude and natural gas. China and India lead the list of targets. The bill grants Trump authority to impose the duties to pressure Moscow over Ukraine. Read →
Alexander Ward, Yoko Kubota, Siobhan Hughes · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Jul 14, 2026
The draft bill championed by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham would let President Trump impose tariffs up to 100% on the largest importers of Russian oil and gas. China and India rank as the primary targets. It marks the first congressional authorization of tariffs as a geopolitical tool against energy buyers. Read →
Four US senators announced agreement with the Trump administration to advance updated Russia sanctions legislation. The bill would sanction countries buying Russian energy to pressure Moscow on Ukraine. Graham, who met Zelenskiy in Kyiv, said the deal means the measure is on track to become law. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Iran's IRGC claims strikes on US base in Kuwait and warns oil transits through Strait of Hormuz will not normalize. Traders on X discuss potential supply disruptions pushing crude prices higher amid renewed geopolitical risks. Read →
US reimposes blockade on Strait of Hormuz amid Iran conflict escalation. Market participants highlight oil rallying with Brent up significantly, pricing in supply risks and potential inflation impact. Read →
Gold hovers around 4020-4030 with traders eyeing buys at 4000-4020 support or deeper tests. Discussions note pressure from rising yields and firm dollar despite long-term bullish views. Read →
NBP gas and UK power prices jump sharply due to Strait of Hormuz tensions, heatwave, and weak wind. Traders note renewed supply concerns lifting energy markets. Read →
Traders highlight agriculture and fertilizers as key overlooked theme with cycle bottom forming. Charts suggest multi-year upside potential as energy moves ripple to ag complex. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Paul Sankey discussed escalating Middle East tensions, emphasizing that crude oil is manageable but US refining capacity constraints and low gasoline inventories create real risks, especially with heat and hurricane season. He highlighted high refining margins (around $60/bbl crack spreads) and urged policymakers to avoid market interference, noting US immunity to crude shocks but vulnerability in products. Watch/Listen →
Paul Horsnell joined Bassam Fattouh in an OIES podcast analyzing the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, its effects on oil markets, implementation uncertainties, and broader themes from OIES Oil Day including demand revisions amid geopolitical tensions. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.