Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Oct 24, 2026
▶Listen · the 2‑minute market briefToday's markets in two minutes. Tap to play
Prefer audio only? Listen here.
Today's sponsor slot is open. Ask us about it →
Downey's Take on the Past Week
Crude was quiet this week. Brent settled at $116.72 and WTI at $103.27 after Friday’s close, with prices near the upper end of the recent range and the Brent-WTI spread around $13.45.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $6.31 (+7.2%) on Middle East escalation restricting Qatari LNG flows and EU storage lagging seasonal norms ahead of winter.
Wheat down $36 (-5.4%) on easing geopolitical risk premium from Black Sea supply concerns plus weak export sales and harvest pressure.
Palladium down $57 (-5.1%) on persistent investment outflows, bearish long-term demand outlook from EV shift and platinum substitution, plus macro pressure from higher yields and inflation expectations.
JKM Asian LNG up $1.50 (+5.0%) on tanker strikes and shipping risks in the Middle East tightening supply amid winter demand.
Gold down $173 (-4.1%) on rising oil prices stoking inflation concerns and higher-for-longer rate expectations, plus cross-asset deleveraging.
Kicker: Saxo recommends long palladium on underpriced tariff risk from potential US Critical Mineral Section 232 measures (Saxo Bank, Oct 23).
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $6.31 (+7.2%) on Middle East escalation restricting Qatari LNG flows and EU storage lagging seasonal norms ahead of winter.
Wheat down $36 (-5.4%) on easing geopolitical risk premium from Black Sea supply concerns plus weak export sales and harvest pressure.
Palladium down $57 (-5.1%) on persistent investment outflows, bearish long-term demand outlook from EV shift and platinum substitution, plus macro pressure from higher yields and inflation expectations.
JKM Asian LNG up $1.50 (+5.0%) on tanker strikes and shipping risks in the Middle East tightening supply amid winter demand.
Gold down $173 (-4.1%) on rising oil prices stoking inflation concerns and higher-for-longer rate expectations, plus cross-asset deleveraging.
Kicker: Saxo recommends long palladium on underpriced tariff risk from potential US Critical Mineral Section 232 measures (Saxo Bank, Oct 23).
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Hormuz tanker flows recovered toward 11 to 14 million bpd this week despite ongoing Iranian attacks on vessels and Saudi infrastructure strikes.
The angle · Own front-month Brent outright long; geopolitical risk premium supports nearby contracts while flows stay lumpy.
European gas storage sits at about 72 to 75 percent full, lowest for the season in years, as Middle East LNG risks intensify ahead of winter.
The angle · Long TTF calendar spread, buy winter against summer; low inventories and Qatari LNG constraints should steepen the curve.
LME copper stocks surged about 20 percent in a week to over 270,000 tonnes on heavy US inflows after tariff bets faded.
The angle · Sell LME cash against three-month; stock build should flatten or narrow the backwardation as metal moves globally.
Russian Black Sea grain exports collapsed fourfold year-on-year with Novorossiysk loadings near zero as Ukrainian attacks halted Azov traffic.
The angle · Long Matif wheat versus Chicago; Black Sea outage bids European origin premiums against ample US supply.
US natural gas added a 77 Bcf storage build last week to 3,644 Bcf amid mild weather forecasts through early November.
The angle · Short front-month Henry Hub outright; large builds and mild weather should keep prompt prices under pressure.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These are live oil and natural gas prices from On Chain 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
|
WTI Crude · weekend
$103.60
+0.33 +0.32%
vs Fri close $103.27
|
Nat Gas · weekend
$2.65
+0.01 +0.21%
vs Fri close $2.64
|
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, October 23, 2026
Charts: grey is the prior week, color is this week.
Dots under the energy markets and copper: the shape of the curve at Friday’s close. WTI, Brent and Nat Gas run cash to 1st to 2nd month, cash from Prism; Dutch TTF and copper run their first three contracts.
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF backwardation |
93.85 | +7.2% +6.31 |
+233% | +199% | +5.9% |
| WTI Crude backwardation |
103.27 | +1.8% +1.86 |
+79.9% | +68.4% | +23.3% |
| Brent backwardation |
116.72 | +1.7% +1.84 |
+83.6% | +70.2% | +29.9% |
| Copper contango |
14,348 | -0.4% -51 |
+15.6% | +26.6% | +43.0% |
| Soybeans |
1,257 | -0.4% -5 |
+21.9% | +17.7% | +1.6% |
| Nat Gas contango |
2.640 | -2.1% -0.066 |
-17.3% | -11.4% | -48.3% |
| Silver |
53.95 | -3.5% -1.99 |
-21.6% | +18.1% | +124% |
| Corn |
456 | -3.8% -18 |
+3.6% | +6.4% | -15.2% |
| Gold |
4,008 | -4.1% -173 |
-7.7% | -0.3% | +122% |
| Wheat |
625 | -5.4% -36 |
+23.3% | +18.8% | -17.7% |
Dutch TTF led the week. Start with NatGas 101.
Macro this week
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Fut |
7,660 | -0.6% -45 |
+11.1% | +10.9% | +68.1% |
| Dollar Index |
101.75 | -0.1% -0.09 |
+3.5% | +3.0% | +8.5% |
| EUR/USD |
1.1204 | -0.1% -0.0009 |
-4.6% | -3.7% | -3.7% |
| US 10Y Yield |
4.988 | -11bp | +82bp | +99bp | +335bp |
Tanker freight this week
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.35M | -6.0% | +1679% | 224.7 | 30.65 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$429k | -22.1% | +621% | 120.8 | 16.48 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$209k | -16.0% | +299% | 122.7 | 16.74 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$329k | +9.7% | +1076% | 214.2 | 28.75 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$245k | +13.7% | +1080% | 228.5 | 25.67 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$62k | -3.1% | +74.6% | 89.7 | 10.55 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$78k | +8.3% | +273% | 106.8 | 14.34 |
Report of Oct 22, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
Forward curves
The heavy line: months 1 to 24 at Friday’s settlement Fri Oct 23. Amber: the same contracts a week earlier. Dotted: a month earlier. Dashed: months 1 to 24 as they stood a year earlier. Refinery cracks in $/bbl from the NYMEX curves.
WTI $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Dec 26 $103.27, up $4.25 on the week; Nov 28 $74.02. A year ago the front (Dec 25) was $61.50.
Brent $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Dec 26 $116.72, up $6.86 on the week; Nov 28 $79.22. A year ago the front (Dec 25) was $65.99.
3-2-1 crack $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Dec 26 $51.34, down $3.80 on the week; Oct 28 $34.28. A year ago the front (Nov 25) was $25.98.
Henry Hub $/MMBtu
Contango. Front Nov 26 $2.640, down $0.476 on the week; Oct 28 $3.574. A year ago the front (Nov 25) was $3.304.
The diesel and gasoline cracks, copper and propane: all eight curves.
Charts of the week
The chart posts picked for the week's letters and one for Saturday. Each links to the post on X.
Wed
LNG prices at 4-year high above $30/mBtu
via @JavierBlas on X
LNG prices hit a 4-year high above $30 per mBtu while US/Canadian nat gas stays near $3, giving US heavy industry a huge feedstock cost advantage
LNG prices at 4-year high above $30/mBtu
via @JavierBlas on X
LNG prices hit a 4-year high above $30 per mBtu while US/Canadian nat gas stays near $3, giving US heavy industry a huge feedstock cost advantage
Thu
OFAC SDN list Oct 21 2026
via @CRUDEOIL231 on X
Screenshots of OFAC General License HH annex listing 7 sanctioned vessels and wind-down terms, directly impacts sanctioned Iranian crude flows and risk premia
OFAC SDN list Oct 21 2026
via @CRUDEOIL231 on X
Screenshots of OFAC General License HH annex listing 7 sanctioned vessels and wind-down terms, directly impacts sanctioned Iranian crude flows and risk premia
Fri
Strait of Hormuz LNG crossings Oct 2026
via @CRUDEOIL231 on X
Line and bar chart of daily LNG transits through Hormuz with 10-day MA; shows sharp drop after US-Iran events, tying LNG balances to USGC
Strait of Hormuz LNG crossings Oct 2026
via @CRUDEOIL231 on X
Line and bar chart of daily LNG transits through Hormuz with 10-day MA; shows sharp drop after US-Iran events, tying LNG balances to USGC
Sat
Dated Brent vs Brent M1 Oct 2026
via @CRUDEOIL231 on X · 201 likes
Line chart of Dated Brent premium to front-month futures with spread histogram; shows rebound to 10.8$/bbl after recent collapse
Dated Brent vs Brent M1 Oct 2026
via @CRUDEOIL231 on X · 201 likes
Line chart of Dated Brent premium to front-month futures with spread histogram; shows rebound to 10.8$/bbl after recent collapse
The Week Ahead
Scheduled events next week that could move commodities.
Wed Oct 28 |
FOMC rate decision 2:00pm ET
decision and press conference set dollar path, affecting all commodities via rates and risk appetite |
Thu Oct 29 |
US Q3 GDP advance + PCE 8:30am ET
growth and inflation prints shift Fed expectations and dollar, moving energy and metals |
Thu Oct 29 |
ECB rate decision 2:15pm CET
euro-area policy sets euro and cross-asset flows, influencing oil demand and gold |
Fri Oct 30 |
Japan policy outlook affects yen carry trades and global risk, moving metals and energy |
Your ad here
One sponsor per issue, and nobody else
This is where a sponsor's block sits: room to actually say what you do, to the people who read this letter every morning.
Email us for target audience and the rates →
Commodity Research
The week's most interesting commodity research.
Commodities offer structural returns and defensiveness via electrification, AI demand and supply constraints; maintain diversified exposure with active management.
Gold central bank demand, USD diversification
Energy tight physical market, disruption risks
Copper AI/power grids, mine constraints
UBS · Oct 23 · Read →
Geopolitics and AI power needs reshape base metals; copper and aluminium face deficits amid data-centre surge.
Copper US hoarding, 460kt ROW deficit
Aluminium 1Mt deficit from ME smelter damage
Nickel rebalance via Indonesia curbs
WoodMac · Oct 22 · Read →
Demand falls 2.6 mb/d in 2026 from high prices and weak outlook; supply deficit persists into 2027 with fragile Middle East recovery.
Demand diesel drives 25% of 4Q drop
Supply +2.5 mb/d Sep rebound but fragile
Refining margins crushed outside US
IEA · Oct 24 · Read →
Import dependence peaks 2034; electrification accelerates as resilience builds from prior investments.
Import share falls to 26% by 2050
Electricity 41% of useful energy 2050
Emissions plateau 40 Gt then decline
Rystad · Oct 15 · Read →
Supply gaps narrow for copper/lithium but widen for cobalt; refining concentration hits records.
Copper gap narrows to 25% by 2035
Cobalt gap widens past 25%
Refining top country share 72%
IEA · Oct 7 · Read →
Precautionary buying and hedging keep prices elevated; refined product tightness persists.
Crude precautionary physical buying
Products Gulf exports 40% of 2025
Copper +10% by end-2027 expected
Goldman · Oct 23 · Read →
Brent averages $105/bbl in 4Q26; global supply rebounds but inventories remain tight.
Brent $105 4Q26 average
Natural gas higher inventories
Winter fuels lower spend expected
EIA · Oct 6 · Read →
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
Three seas crisis in Gulf, Red Sea and Black Sea is permanently reshaping global energy security and supply chains
Gulf/Red Sea/Black Sea disruptions force infrastructure redundancy
Refining capacity destruction triggers persistent product shortages
Nations prioritize supply chain diversification over cost
MacroVoices · Oct 22 · Listen →
US midterms may intensify scrutiny on Trump energy agenda or shift sanctions and investment rules
435 House and 35 Senate seats at stake Nov 3
Potential leverage over sanctions and fuel prices
Policy continuity vs new congressional pressure on energy
Platts Oil Markets · Oct 23 · Listen →
Lifting Russia's diesel export ban could relieve constrained European market but uncertainty remains high
Ban lift and supply return reshape balances
European diesel prices sensitive to geopolitics
Geopolitical headlines keep markets volatile
Platts Oil Markets · Oct 15 · Listen →
Hormuz crisis and fossil-fuel disruption boost solar leapfrogging, batteries and decentralized power in developing world
Electrotech momentum in power generation/consumption
AI-electrification link strengthens
Energy independence drives adoption
HC Commodities · Oct 20 · Listen →
Trump admin lifts Russian diesel sanctions to curb prices with first 40kt tanker due tomorrow
Diesel at $6.31/gal national average vs $3.62 prior year
Talks possible after Nov 10 midterms
China buying shift key to market relief
Sankey Research YouTube · Oct 20 · Listen →
DOE loans for long-lead items on 10 AP1000s take three years off commercial operation dates
More utilities interested than slots available
Nuclear plays key role in economic/security/decarbonization goals
Federal financing essential for scale-up
Columbia Energy Exchange · Oct 20 · Listen →
Commodity Intelligence
Unanimous positive on oil; oil flipped bullish, Grok and Claude flipped on copper and Grok flipped bearish on gold this week.
The same questions to three frontier AIs, every week. Unedited verdicts · opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Where the panel stands
Oil all 3 AIs |
▲ Up flipped from Down |
|
Copper 2 of 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up 6th straight week |
|
US Nat Gas 2 of 3 AIs |
▼ Down Down 3rd straight week |
|
Gold 2 of 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up 6th straight week |
Line: the price at each weekend issue since Jul 4. Dots: what most of the three AIs called that week, green Up, red Down.
Why, in their words
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI · changed its mind
▲ Up Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites and Hormuz tanker strikes
Gemini · Google
▲ Up Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites and tanker threats in the Middle East continue to drive a significant supply risk premium.
Claude · Anthropic · changed its mind
▲ Up Escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco energy sites and Hormuz tanker strikes sustaining Gulf supply-risk premium.
Paid listings · list your event
Energy Trading Week Americas · Oct 27-28 · The Woodlands, Texas
Commodity & Energy Trading Week APAC · Mar 3-4 · Singapore
Commodity Trading Week Europe · May 19-20 · London
Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe free.
The cash price of physical crude globally, real‑time live even on weekends.
Prism is Morgan’s service providing free real‑time cash prices for physical crude oil, refined products, freight, natural gas and more. See today’s prices.
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe