Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 48 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Wed, Sep 16, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude down this morning on surprise US API crude inventory (4:30pm ET Tuesday) build of 7 million barrels (expectation was for a fall of 1 mil). Watch EIA data this morning (10:30am ET) for confirmation. Today’s slight oil price decline follows a sharp Tuesday rally of over $5 driven by Saudi E/W pipe outage (US Energy Sec said Tues that repairs will only take days) since last Thursday. Hormuz traffic remained far below normal (single-digit daily transits vs recent historical averages of 14+). Cash physical Brent crude is very tight trading $20 (so in the $120s) over the front futures due the Saudi outage.
Silver up $1.09 (+1.7%) on rebound in precious metals with easing dollar and oil ahead of Fed decision.
Nickel down $279 (-1.7%) on Indonesia cutting benchmark prices for low-grade nickel ore.
Palladium up $19 (+1.5%) on rebound in precious metals with softer dollar and short covering ahead of Fed decision.
Soybeans up $12 (+0.9%) on China demand.
Gold up $39 (+0.9%) on easing dollar and oil as Fed rate verdict looms.
Kicker: Goldman recommends hedging geopolitical risk through deferred March 2027 to December 2027 European diesel timespreads.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil hits $109 on Saudi pipeline closure
Brent crude jumped to $109 a barrel after Saudi Arabia shut its key East-West pipeline following drone attacks, with Riyadh pulling out of regional talks on the Strait of Hormuz. The closure threatens a major bypass route for Gulf exports amid ongoing Middle East hostilities.
Read →
Oil slips on US inventory build, Saudi risks linger
Oil prices retreated after an unexpected 7.1 million barrel US crude inventory build last week, with Brent falling about 0.7% to around $107.50 a barrel despite persistent supply worries from the Saudi pipeline outage and suspended Yanbu loadings.
Read →
Fertiliser alternatives ease food crisis fears
Global urea imports from Hormuz-routed suppliers plunged 85% due to Middle East disruptions, yet total volumes fell only 6% as Egypt and Nigeria boosted exports by 98% and 81% respectively. Prices have eased from peaks but remain elevated for poorer nations.
Read →
LNG faces prolonged Hormuz disruption
Mitsui OSK Lines chairman Takeshi Hashimoto said LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to resume soon amid ongoing disruptions, keeping prices elevated and pressuring Asian demand as winter approaches.
Read →
Commonwealth LNG eyes big expansion
Commonwealth LNG announced plans for a second phase adding five production units to nearly double capacity, backed by Kimmeridge and Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund, as Asian buyers seek more US LNG amid global supply strains.
Read →
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil
What's moving · US crude inventories surged 7.1M barrels, pressuring prices lower despite Saudi pipeline outage.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
104.81 |
-1.0%
-1.02 |
+82.7% |
+63.8% |
+44.5% |
| Brent |
108.31 |
-0.4%
-0.44 |
+78.0% |
+59.4% |
+43.1% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.436 |
-0.8%
-0.029 |
+89.2% |
+59.0% |
+47.9% |
| Heating Oil |
5.244 |
-0.3%
-0.018 |
+136.3% |
+112.8% |
+126.6% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
39.51 |
-0.5%
-0.20 |
+108.8%
+20.59 |
+47.6%
+12.75 |
+57.9%
+14.48 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
115.44 |
+0.2%
+0.26 |
+221.9%
+79.58 |
+192.0%
+75.91 |
+368.1%
+90.78 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
64.82 |
-0.1%
-0.05 |
+163.8%
+40.25 |
+109.0%
+33.80 |
+160.3%
+39.91 |
Oil rally pauses after supply-driven gains
Brent fell toward $108/bbl and WTI near $105 after a two-day rally on Middle East supply fears. The pullback followed a large US inventory build and technical signals that gains looked overdone. Disruptions from the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown and Libya supply halt remain in focus.
Read →
Saudi shuts East-West pipeline after Houthi attack
Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline as a precaution after drone strikes blamed on Houthis and Iraqi militias. The line had rerouted up to 4 to 5M bpd around the disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Houthis also seized a key Red Sea island near Bab el-Mandeb, widening supply route risks.
Read →
Saudi suspends Yanbu loadings after pipeline hit
Shipping sources reported Saudi Arabia suspended crude loadings at Yanbu following the East-West pipeline attack. Riyadh canceled some European cargoes and shifted some Asian volumes to ship-to-ship transfers off Oman. The outage threatens a key Hormuz bypass route carrying 4% of global supply.
Read →
Saudi cancels cargoes; Poland seeks alternatives
Saudi Arabia canceled select September cargoes to Europe after the pipeline shutdown. Poland's Orlen is seeking alternative supplies amid the disruption. The moves underscore immediate physical market tightness from the Red Sea route impairment.
Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Natgas futures climb to one-week high on lower output and late-September heat lifting power burn.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.921 |
+0.1%
+0.002 |
-20.8% |
-5.8% |
-45.2% |
Natgas futures hit one-week high on lower output, heat
US natural gas futures for October delivery rose 3.9 cents or 1.3% to $2.935/MMBtu on Tuesday, their highest close since September 4. LSEG data showed Lower 48 output at 113.2 bcfd month-to-date but daily flows dropping toward a two-month low of 108.4 bcfd, while LNG feedgas averaged 18.3 bcfd so far in September. Hotter-than-normal weather through September 30 is keeping power-sector gas burn elevated, narrowing the storage surplus to an estimated 3.6% above normal for the week ended September 11 ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.
Read →
Tighter balances push natgas bulls toward $3 handle
Natural gas futures held higher Tuesday as lower production and lingering late-season cooling demand tightened near-term balances. Spot prices strengthened across much of the US with pipeline restrictions supporting Northeast markets. Gains faded along the curve, reflecting the market’s reluctance for a broader bullish shift despite the support from heat and output dips.
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Corpus Christi becomes US’s second-largest LNG facility
On August 28, Cheniere completed its Corpus Christi Liquefaction Stage 3 project, adding the seventh and final train and lifting total nominal capacity to 3.1 Bcf/d (3.9 Bcf/d peak). The facility is now the second-largest US LNG terminal after Sabine Pass. Production has ramped gradually across the midscale trains, boosting overall US export capability and supporting higher LNG feedgas demand.
Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane settles at 84.6¢/gal (+2.3%) on surging Gulf Coast exports and record inventories.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Ethane
C2 $/gal |
0.250 |
+0.7%
+0.002 |
+5.5% |
-0.2% |
-36.4% |
Propane
C3 $/gal |
0.846 |
+2.3%
+0.019 |
+37.2% |
+18.0% |
-33.5% |
N-Butane
NC4 $/gal |
1.264 |
+1.7%
+0.021 |
+69.6% |
+40.4% |
-13.7% |
Isobutane
IC4 $/gal |
1.454 |
+2.4%
+0.033 |
+87.0% |
+59.2% |
+0.8% |
Pentane
C5 $/gal |
2.049 |
+2.4%
+0.047 |
+74.8% |
+54.7% |
+20.7% |
| Spread |
Now |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal |
6 |
unch |
+6 |
+1 |
+2 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal |
58 |
+2 |
+30 |
+15 |
-21 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt |
-671 |
-8 |
-367 |
-295 |
-299 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt |
-424 |
+1 |
-257 |
-227 |
-410 |
| C5 as % WTI |
82 |
+3 |
-4 |
-5 |
-16 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Enterprise Neches River drives record US ethane exports.
Enterprise Products’ new Neches River terminal near Beaumont ramped ethane cargoes to nearly 59 Mb/d in September, more than doubling August levels and pushing total US waterborne ethane exports to a record 580 Mb/d average. Chinese buyers accounted for 70% of the volume, supporting firmer Mont Belvieu ethane prices. The surge signals stronger ethane recovery economics and export demand from the Permian and Appalachia.
Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · Prolonged Hormuz outage and low EU storage keep TTF near €81/MWh and JKM at $27.76/MMBtu.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Dutch TTF
€/MWh |
79.46 |
-0.8%
-0.61 |
+182.1% |
+145.2% |
+25.6% |
Dutch TTF
$/MMBtu |
26.88 |
-0.8%
-0.20 |
+182.1% |
+145.2% |
+25.6% |
JKM
$/MMBtu |
25.21 |
+0.6%
+0.15 |
+162.4% |
+119.6% |
+7.6% |
EU gas storage · gas day Mon, Sep 14
EU gas storage is 68.5% full, 775 TWh in store, 16.1 points below the five-year average for this date and 12.1 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 55.9%.
EU full 68.5% +0.19 pts d/d | Year ago 80.6% | 5-yr avg 84.6% same date |
Germany 55.9% |
TTF holds near €82 amid Middle East risks.
Dutch TTF front-month trades around €82.27/MWh with limited downside. ING analysts cite Middle East escalation reducing Persian Gulf LNG flows and Europe’s struggle to reach 75% storage. Tight global LNG balances support prices into winter.
Read →
Northeast Asia spot LNG jumps to $28.40/MMBtu.
Northeast Asia spot LNG rose $2.70 week-on-week to $28.40/MMBtu; Southwest Europe LNG hit $27.50/MMBtu. Low EU storage and unresolved Middle East supply issues drive the gains. JKM-TTF spread signals ongoing Asia-Europe cargo competition.
Read →
JKM rises 10.8% to $27.76/MMBtu.
JKM LNG benchmark climbed $2.70 (+10.77%) to $27.76/MMBtu on September 15. The move reflects tight supply from Hormuz disruptions and Asian demand. JKM holds a $4/MMBtu premium over TTF, directing cargoes toward Asia.
Read →
Power
What's moving · FERC orders all six US grid operators to justify or reform large-load tariffs for data centers, with PJM also proposing ride-through rules after July 4 GW trip.
PJM proposes ride-through rules for large data center loads
PJM proposed new ride-through rules requiring large computational loads (data centers ≥50 MW at ≥100 kV) to stay connected during voltage/frequency disturbances instead of switching to backup generation. The rules respond to a June FERC order and a July event where nearly 4,000 MW of Northern Virginia data center load disconnected during a transmission fault. New facilities must demonstrate compliance starting November; the changes aim to reduce reliability risks from unpredictable large-load behavior.
Read →
FERC orders six grid operators to justify or reform large-load tariffs
FERC issued show-cause orders under Section 206 to PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ISO-NE, and NYISO directing them within 60 days to justify current tariffs or propose reforms for data centers and other large loads. The orders target cost allocation, co-location rules, cost-recovery agreements, and expedited processes to speed reliable interconnections while protecting ratepayers. SPP’s existing High Impact Large Load framework is noted as a model; separate PJM co-location proceedings advance firm/non-firm contract demand transmission services.
Read →
Coal
What's moving · India thermal power plants hit critical coal stocks as demand surges and hydro lags.
India critical coal stocks at thermal plants hit 66.
The number of Indian thermal power plants with critical coal stocks rose to 66 on September 14 from 59 on September 9 per Central Electricity Authority data. Plant stocks fell 9% to 24.04 million tonnes, covering only about 7 days versus the 18-day normative requirement. Surging electricity demand from heat and weak hydro output is drawing down inventories despite higher dispatches.
Read →
China Huaneng tenders 786,000 tonnes imported thermal coal.
China Huaneng Group issued its 34th 2026 tender for imported thermal coal, seeking 12 cargoes totaling 786,000 tonnes mostly for October delivery to coastal plants. The move follows a pause last week and signals ongoing import needs amid domestic supply constraints from safety inspections.
Read →
Bayan Resources declares force majeure on coal supply.
PT Bayan Resources and subsidiaries declared force majeure on supply obligations due to delays in 2026 mining quota approvals. The step constrains Indonesian thermal coal exports, a key global supply source, amid already tight seaborne markets.
Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Soybean futures fell with crude after NOPA crush hit 11-month low of 205.456M bu.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
539 |
+0.6%
+3 |
+22.4% |
+26.2% |
+1.7% |
| Wheat |
734 |
+0.8%
+6 |
+44.8% |
+38.9% |
+2.9% |
| Soybeans |
1,331 |
+0.9%
+12 |
+29.1% |
+27.5% |
+2.7% |
| Sugar |
18.71 |
-0.8%
-0.16 |
+24.7% |
+20.4% |
-4.0% |
| Coffee |
285.1 |
+0.5%
+1.4 |
-18.3% |
-26.6% |
+51.8% |
| Cocoa |
5,916 |
-0.1%
-7 |
-2.5% |
-19.9% |
+122.7% |
| Cotton |
84.61 |
+0.2%
+0.13 |
+32.1% |
+28.9% |
-9.1% |
Soybeans drop with crude post slow crush rally
US soybean futures fell Wednesday, pressured by lower crude oil prices, after surging over 2% Tuesday on a slower-than-expected August crush rate from NOPA members at 205.456 million bushels, an 11-month low. Wheat and corn futures also edged lower amid the broader commodity pullback.
Read →
Soybean basis weakens, corn basis strengthens
Mary Kennedy ·
DTN · Tue, Sep 15, 2026, 10:03 PM CDT
Soybean and soft red winter wheat basis weakened Tuesday while corn and hard red winter wheat basis strengthened, with spring wheat basis steady. The shifts reflect localized supply and demand dynamics at elevators and processors during early harvest.
Read →
Grains rebound as Russia-Ukraine strikes resume
Anthony Harrup ·
Dow Jones · Tue, Sep 15, 2026
Grain futures recovered Tuesday after early weakness faded when Russia and Ukraine exchanged strikes overnight, dimming truce hopes despite prior US statements. December wheat rose 0.9% to $7.28½/bu, November soybeans gained 1.1% to $13.18¾/bu, and December corn added 0.5% to $5.35¾/bu on renewed Black Sea supply concerns.
Read →
USDA: Corn 57% gd/ex, 8% harvested; soy 58%
USDA's latest Crop Progress report showed US corn at 57% good-to-excellent, up from 56% prior week, with harvest at 8% complete versus 6% average. Soybeans rated 58% good-to-excellent with 6% harvested, double the five-year average of 3%, reflecting accelerated maturity from heat.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper rebounds from 3-week lows on LME as Shanghai spot premiums hit yearly high amid tight physical supply.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,287 |
+0.6%
+82 |
+15.1% |
+41.8% |
+51.5% |
Copper
SHFE $/mt |
14,178 |
+0.6%
+80 |
+11.6% |
+43.2% |
+48.6% |
Aluminium
SHFE $/mt |
3,185 |
+0.5%
+16 |
+7.0% |
+24.1% |
+9.8% |
Zinc
SHFE $/mt |
3,450 |
+0.3%
+11 |
+14.9% |
+25.5% |
+13.1% |
Nickel
SHFE $/mt |
16,080 |
-1.7%
-279 |
-5.1% |
+5.8% |
-21.7% |
Lead
SHFE $/mt |
2,089 |
+0.2%
+3 |
-5.2% |
+0.2% |
+2.4% |
Tin
SHFE $/mt |
52,172 |
+0.3%
+159 |
+24.2% |
+53.8% |
+52.6% |
Nornickel negotiates copper processing deal with North Copper in China.
Nornickel is in talks with China's North Copper Co. to process its copper concentrate at facilities in Houma, Shanxi, potentially closing its polluting Norilsk smelter. The upgrade could take up to two years and targets Nornickel's higher-nickel concentrates. The move shifts final-stage processing to China, cutting costs amid sanctions and customer proximity.
Read →
Lithium Argentina closes $180M Ganfeng convertible note investment.
Lithium Argentina closed a $180 million strategic investment from Ganfeng via a six-year 4% convertible note, using proceeds plus cash to repay $259 million notes due January 2027. Ganfeng's stake rises to 16.1% on full conversion. Funds strengthen the balance sheet for Stage 2 at Cauchari-Olaroz and the PPG project in Argentina.
Read →
LME copper falls to 3-week low as LME stocks rise and oil prices climb.
Three-month LME copper hit a low near $13,926/t before recovering modestly, its weakest since August 20, as warehouse stocks climbed nearly 20% since mid-August to 242,900 t. Rising oil prices above $107/bbl reinforced growth concerns for manufacturing demand. Yangshan premiums for imported copper rose to $110/t, the highest since early August, signaling firmer Chinese physical interest.
Read →
Atlantic Copper opens CirCular plant to recover 60,000 t/y metals from e-waste.
Atlantic Copper inaugurated its CirCular facility in Huelva, Spain, with 550 million euro investment and 60,000 t/y capacity to extract copper, gold, silver, palladium, platinum, tin and nickel from end-of-life electronics. The plant processes mobiles, tablets, cameras and batteries as primary feedstock. It positions Spain among few nations with large-scale industrial e-waste metal recovery and supports EU circular economy targets.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · CISA urges 45 mills including Baowu and HBIS to curb output and slash inventories as steel margins collapse and iron ore futures hover near $96/t.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
93.6 |
+0.3%
+0.3 |
-7.1% |
-2.2% |
-12.2% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
405 |
+0.8%
+3 |
+2.9% |
+4.6% |
-43.8% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
438 |
+0.4%
+2 |
+6.2% |
+6.6% |
-42.2% |
CISA urges 45 mills to cut output and inventories
The China Iron and Steel Association called on 45 major mills, including Baowu, Ansteel, Shougang and HBIS, to strictly implement production controls and reduce inventories. Mills face oversupply, weak demand and plunging profitability with core steelmaking profits down 40% in H1. The move targets blast-furnace output to ease pressure on iron ore demand.
Read →
Iron ore futures drop nearly 5% to $96/t on weak China demand
Iron ore futures fell nearly 5% over the past week to around $96/t amid higher steelmaking input costs and eroding mill margins. Prolonged China property downturn and rising global supply from Australia and Brazil weigh on prices. Miners including BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue face softer near-term pricing.
Read →
Capesize rates near $50k/day despite China steel weakness
Capesize earnings stay near $50,000/day on strong iron ore volumes, yet Chinese crude steel output fell 3.7% y/y in August to 74.61 Mt with daily output at an eight-month low. CISA’s fresh call for output cuts and inventory reduction adds downside risk to ore demand. Port stocks remain elevated 14% above norms.
Read →
Vale shares drop 0.96% as China steel output cools
Vale fell 0.96% to US$14.47 in New York while the Dalian iron ore contract slipped 0.14% to 707.5 yuan/t. China’s July crude steel output dropped 3.6% y/y to 76.93 Mt even as seven-month ore imports rose 6% to 736.84 Mt. Elevated port inventories signal mills are stockpiling rather than consuming.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rises 0.8% to $4,328/oz as oil eases ahead of Fed rate decision.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,371 |
+0.9%
+39 |
+0.6% |
+17.5% |
+148.7% |
| Silver |
64.95 |
+1.7%
+1.09 |
-7.4% |
+55.7% |
+185.5% |
| Platinum |
1,786 |
+0.5%
+9 |
-12.2% |
+30.1% |
+93.0% |
| Palladium |
1,322 |
+1.5%
+19 |
-18.9% |
+14.5% |
-34.5% |
Gold gains with Fed rate decision in spotlight
Ashitha Shivaprasad ·
Reuters · Wed, Sep 16, 2026
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,328.39/oz with silver up 1.5% to $64.60, platinum +0.7% and palladium +1.6 to 2.2%. Traders priced in a 92%+ chance of a 25bp Fed hike later Wednesday; easing oil prices and fiscal concerns provided support despite the expected rate increase.
Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's June export curbs on MP Materials and USA Rare Earth tighten non-Chinese rare earth supply chains amid November controls deadline.
Saudi finds 114M tons rare earth ore at Jabal Sayid
Saudi Arabia announced a 114-million-ton mineralized ore resource at Jabal Sayid containing high concentrations of rare earths, especially heavy elements like dysprosium, plus uranium. The find advances Vision 2030 diversification and builds on a prior Ma’aden-MP Materials-US government refinery JV. It adds potential non-Chinese feedstock for permanent magnets and allied supply chains.
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Lynas becomes first non-Chinese dysprosium-terbium supplier
Lynas reported FY profit of A$222M (vs A$8M prior year) and revenue of A$978M on strong NdPr and heavy rare earth pricing, becoming the first commercial supplier of dysprosium and terbium oxides outside China. Mount Weld output faced temporary quality issues now resolved; the company continues seeking permanent CEO after interim leadership and failed takeover talks.
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Vulcan Elements, ReElement secure $1.4B US gov deal
Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies formed a $1.4B partnership with the US Defense and Commerce departments to expand domestic rare earth magnet production and recycling. DOD takes warrants in both firms; Commerce provides $50M equity stake in Vulcan. The deal targets 10,000 tpa NdFeB magnet capacity using recycled and primary feedstock to reduce China dependence.
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Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz crisis and Yanbu export halt drive VLCC rates above $1M/day and lift all crude tanker segments.
Maersk, Cosco resume Suez transits despite Houthi risks
Major carriers including Maersk and Cosco are restoring Red Sea/Suez services this month despite Houthi territorial gains near Bab el-Mandeb. The shift cuts reliance on the longer Cape route. It signals carriers accepting elevated security risks to shorten voyages and ease capacity pressure.
Read →
Yanbu halt pushes VLCC rates to new records
Saudi Yanbu loadings stopped after September 11 amid pipeline and Hormuz issues. VLCC TCEs climbed further Tuesday: MEG-China to $1.1M/day, Oman-China $791k, West Africa-China $486k. The export pause tightens prompt tonnage and sustains the rate rally.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · Germany pushes tighter MSR rules to avert EUA glut amid EU ETS reform talks.
Germany seeks tighter MSR rules to prevent EUA surplus.
Ewa Krukowska ·
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 15, 7:47 PM ET
Germany proposed amendments to the EU Market Stability Reserve (MSR) that would strengthen withdrawal parameters, lower the surplus trigger threshold to 650 million allowances, and maintain the 24% intake rate. The moves aim to reduce the risk of excess permits flooding the market and pressuring EUA prices lower during the ongoing ETS overhaul negotiations. The changes counter earlier Commission concessions designed to ease industry concerns over price volatility.
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EU Parliament backs higher MSR invalidation threshold.
The European Parliament voted 367 to 240 to keep the MSR invalidation mechanism for ETS1 but raise the threshold from 400 million to 650 million allowances starting February 2027. Lawmakers also approved changes to the ETS2 MSR to cushion consumers from price swings in buildings and transport sectors. The positions set the stage for negotiations with the Council on the broader EU ETS revision.
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CFTC launches broad probe into voluntary carbon credits.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is conducting a broad investigation into the voluntary carbon credit market, sending voluntary document requests on potentially problematic projects. The probe comes as the market has contracted amid quality concerns and reduced corporate climate commitments. It targets issues in a sector once projected to reach $1 trillion.
Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · UK FCA weighs exempting tokenized gold from fund rules to bolster London bullion market.
CoinDCX lists XAUT with ₹100 SIP for Indians.
CoinDCX, India’s largest crypto exchange, added Tether Gold (XAUT) trading and launched a systematic investment plan allowing purchases starting at INR 100. Each XAUT token represents one troy ounce of physical gold held in Swiss vaults. The partnership targets Indian investors’ preference for gold as a long-term store of value via blockchain rails.
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Binance shifts commodity perps to 24/5 schedule.
Binance announced commodity-linked TradFi perpetual contracts including gold (XAUUSDT), silver (XAGUSDT), crude oil (CLUSDT), Brent (BZUSDT) and natural gas (NATGASUSDT) will trade on a 24/5 basis starting 21:00 UTC Sep 15, removing the prior daily one-hour maintenance window. The change applies to existing and future commodity contracts.
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Corporate & Deals
What's moving · ONEOK's $4.43B Permian midstream buy and Glencore's $2B fraud lawsuit drive corporate activity.
ONEOK buys Brazos Permian gas assets for $4.43B
ONEOK agreed to buy Brazos Midstream’s natural gas gathering and processing assets in the Permian Midland Basin for about $4.43 billion in cash. The deal more than doubles ONEOK’s processing capacity in the region to roughly 2.3 Bcf/d once the Cassidy II plant starts in 2027 and is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings and free cash flow. Apollo funds will provide a $9 billion minority equity investment to fund the purchase and repay about $5 billion in debt.
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Glencore faces $2B suit, alleges Radiant World fraud
Glencore accused Radiant World and associated companies of sending falsified invoices, contracts and fabricated emails to lenders and ended all business with them. Radiant World and Sapphire Minmetals filed a $2 billion damages suit against Glencore in Singapore. Glencore has taken a roughly $480 million provision on its exposure, one of its largest trading losses as a public company.
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Shell buys 30% of BP Conifer prospect in GoM
Shell Offshore agreed to acquire a 30% working interest in the BP-operated Conifer exploration prospect in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico near the Kaskida development. BP will retain 70% and operatorship; the first exploration well is expected in 2027. Shell will also take a 50% stake in BP’s Tupinambá exploration block in Brazil’s Santos Basin, with BP retaining the rest and operatorship.
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Borr Drilling sells 51% Mexico JV stake
Borr Drilling agreed to divest its 51% equity interest in Mexican joint ventures Perfomex to its local partner. Borr will retain ownership of the Galar, Gersemi and Njord jackup rigs working for Pemex and continue participating via bareboat charters with largely unchanged economics. The deal simplifies Borr’s Mexico structure and is expected to close in September 2026.
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Regulation & Government
What's moving · US House advances bill authorizing 100% tariffs on top Russian oil buyers including India and China.
House advances bill for up to 100% US tariffs on major Russian oil buyers includ
The US House voted 214 to 211 to advance the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The bill authorizes President Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the top five importers of Russian crude oil or natural gas by volume, explicitly naming India among others in an amendment. It also extends Iran sanctions and targets Russia's energy sector; a final House vote is expected Wednesday.
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US and China discuss slashing tariffs on US energy and farm exports.
Bloomberg News ·
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 15, 2026
US and Chinese officials are negotiating reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in trade, including lower duties on American energy and agricultural shipments to China. The talks signal potential extension of the one-year trade truce ahead of a leaders' summit next week and could ease duties on Chinese manufacturing inputs.
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EPA finalizes repeal of Biden-era carbon rules for coal and gas power plants.
The Trump EPA rescinded most 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards requiring emissions cuts via carbon capture on existing and new fossil-fuel plants. Announced at the G20 energy ministers meeting in Houston, the final rule projects $310 billion in savings and proposes eliminating all remaining GHG standards for power plants to boost coal and natural gas output.
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EPA repeals power plant GHG rules, projects $310B savings and more coal output.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the repeal of Biden-era greenhouse gas requirements for US power plants at the G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial. The action is expected to increase coal production for power use more than tenfold while restoring baseload reliability; a supplemental proposal seeks to block future carbon regulations under the Clean Air Act.
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What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Saudi pipeline outage spikes physical crude and diesel scarcity
Traders on X highlight Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shutdown after attacks, redirecting barrels through the already strained Strait of Hormuz. Physical crude and diesel are moving into scarcity pricing as flows tighten. The move amplifies supply risks for European and Asian buyers, pushing Brent above $107 to 108 and supporting diesel cracks at record levels.
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US diesel nears $9/gal in Bay Area amid global tightness
Retail diesel in California's Bay Area is approaching $9/gallon, with statewide averages at $8.21 versus a national $6.26. Discussions link the spike to Middle East disruptions, Russian export curbs, and strong global demand. Traders note record US diesel futures near $199/bbl in September, the highest in real terms since 2014.
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Uranium buffeted by macro headwinds and nuclear demand
Uranium traders reference the latest WNA report and IAEA projections showing nuclear capacity potentially tripling by 2060. High oil prices and rising yields create near-term pressure, yet constrained supply and reactor buildouts support long-term bullish views. Spot prices hover near $88 to 90/lb with long-term contracts at 18-year highs.
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Equinor Bacalhau nears 220k bpd plateau production
Equinor's CEO confirmed the Brazilian Bacalhau field is producing near its 220,000 bpd capacity plateau. The ramp-up provides a modest non-OPEC supply buffer amid Middle East disruptions. Traders see it as incremental relief but insufficient to offset broader chokepoint and geopolitical risks.
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IOC buys 4M barrels Mideast/Africa crude for November
Indian Oil Corp's tender for 4 million barrels of crude from the Middle East and Africa signals strong Asian demand despite elevated prices. The purchase underscores buyers' willingness to secure barrels amid Hormuz and pipeline uncertainty. Traders view it as evidence that physical demand remains robust.
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Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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