Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 · 51 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Tue, Sep 15, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Brent $108.35, up $2.67 (+2.5%) and WTI Crude $104.02, up $2.63 (+2.6%) on Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown since last Thursday and Oman Monday (yesterday) talks deferred. Full pipe repair estimates of three to five weeks. Yanbu Red Sea inventories may last only five to seven days, and a reported push by Saudi for more Hormuz loadings. Monday ET also saw Houthi claims of a strike on Khamis Mushait air base, far from Yanbu.
Distillate cracks making new highs.
Cocoa down $161 (-2.7%) on surging Ivory Coast port arrivals and ICE warehouse stocks hitting multi-year highs.
Tin down $1250 (-2.4%).
Platinum down $29 (-1.6%), Silver down $0.91 (-1.4%) and Palladium down $18 (-1.4%), all on rising US Treasury yields and Fed rate-hike expectations.
Kicker: Goldman recommends hedging geopolitical risk via long March 2027 vs short December 2027 European diesel timespreads.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
China crude futures hit record high after Saudi pipeline shutdown
Yuan-priced crude futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange rallied to a record 929.4 yuan ($138.50) a barrel following the shutdown of a key Saudi oil pipeline. The move reflects tighter global supplies as the largest importer steps up purchases amid Middle East disruptions.
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Oil climbs as Saudi pipeline remains offline
Brent crude advanced above $107 a barrel for a second day as traders assessed ongoing disruptions from the offline Saudi East-West pipeline. Riyadh is seeking to further boost shipments via the contested Hormuz waterway to offset the loss.
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In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil
What's moving · Saudi East-West pipeline outage and Houthi strikes tighten Middle East crude flows, lifting Brent above $107.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
104.02 |
+2.6%
+2.63 |
+81.2% |
+61.2% |
+43.3% |
| Brent |
108.35 |
+2.5%
+2.67 |
+69.4% |
+50.6% |
+36.6% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.395 |
+2.3%
+0.078 |
+88.2% |
+57.2% |
+45.4% |
| Heating Oil |
5.151 |
+3.8%
+0.190 |
+132.2% |
+105.7% |
+123.2% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
38.57 |
+1.7%
+0.64 |
+110.1%
+20.21 |
+47.2%
+12.37 |
+51.6%
+13.13 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
112.33 |
+5.0%
+5.34 |
+214.1%
+76.56 |
+176.3%
+71.67 |
+362.3%
+88.03 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
63.16 |
+3.6%
+2.21 |
+161.4%
+39.00 |
+103.6%
+32.14 |
+152.0%
+38.10 |
Oil settles 1% higher on Middle East supply strikes
Brent futures settled at $105.68 per barrel, up $1.07 or 1.0%, while WTI rose $1.34 or 1.3% to $101.39. New Houthi missile and drone strikes on a Saudi airbase and the prior shutdown of the East-West pipeline after Iraq-based attacks reduced alternative export capacity. Strait of Hormuz transits fell to single digits, threatening up to 4% of global supply and sustaining the risk premium.
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Oil rises above $100 after Saudi pipeline shut by Houthis
Brent surged over 2% to around $106.72 and WTI to $102.15 after Houthi forces advanced on Bab el-Mandeb and struck Saudi targets, forcing closure of the East-West pipeline. Planned Iran-Gulf talks on a Hormuz shipping lane were postponed. The outage risks 4% of global supply and has driven an 8% weekly gain.
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Oil soars over 4% to 16-week high after Saudi strikes
Scott DiSavino ·
Reuters · Mon, Sep 14, 2026
Brent jumped as much as 4.5% to $109.29 intraday while WTI rose over 4% after Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a pipeline shutdown. Gulf states canceled Monday talks with Iran on Hormuz navigation. The moves compounded existing constraints from low Strait of Hormuz transits.
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Brent near $107 as Saudi pipeline outage persists
Brent traded above $107 extending Monday's 1% gain while the East-West pipeline stayed shut, with outage estimates of several weeks from some sources. Saudi Arabia is boosting Hormuz shipments to compensate. Iran signaled no talks with the US until conditions are met, keeping supply risks elevated.
Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures rose 2% to $2.88 to 2.90 as daily output dipped and LNG feedgas hit 18.8 to 19.6 bcfd amid heat-driven cooling demand.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.885 |
-0.4%
-0.011 |
-21.7% |
-7.0% |
-47.2% |
US natgas futures rise 2% on lower output, higher LNG exports.
Front-month October futures rose 5.2 cents or 1.8% to $2.883/MMBtu on Monday. LSEG data showed Lower 48 output on track for a two-week low of 112.8 bcfd while flows to nine major LNG plants averaged 18.3 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August. Hotter temperatures are narrowing the storage surplus ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.
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Natgas futures rebound on September cooling demand near record.
Prompt-month futures gained Monday as hotter weekend forecasts pushed September cooling demand close to the all-time record. LNG feedgas remained strong near 19 bcfd while production held near record highs; NGI models a 50 Bcf injection for the week ended Sept. 11 that would still narrow the five-year surplus.
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane settled at 84.6¢/gal (+2.3%) Sep 9 as US propane stocks hit records and export demand held firm.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Ethane
C2 $/gal |
0.250 |
+0.7%
+0.002 |
+5.5% |
+1.2% |
-36.9% |
Propane
C3 $/gal |
0.846 |
+2.3%
+0.019 |
+37.2% |
+18.7% |
-32.8% |
N-Butane
NC4 $/gal |
1.264 |
+1.7%
+0.021 |
+69.6% |
+41.7% |
-13.0% |
Isobutane
IC4 $/gal |
1.454 |
+2.4%
+0.033 |
+87.0% |
+60.9% |
+1.7% |
Pentane
C5 $/gal |
2.049 |
+2.4%
+0.047 |
+74.8% |
+55.8% |
+21.2% |
| Spread |
Now |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal |
6 |
unch |
+7 |
+2 |
+2 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal |
58 |
+2 |
+30 |
+15 |
-18 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt |
-662 |
+7 |
-357 |
-286 |
-292 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt |
-415 |
+16 |
-247 |
-219 |
-394 |
| C5 as % WTI |
83 |
unch |
-3 |
-3 |
-15 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Kpler cuts Mont Belvieu propane outlook on US oversupply and delayed China trade
Kpler · Mon, Sep 14, 2026
Kpler lowered its Mont Belvieu and Northwest Europe propane price outlook starting Q2 2026 due to stronger-than-expected US production and postponed US-China normalization. Butane outlook saw smaller cuts amid solid export and blending demand. The report notes ample US supply will pressure Western prices while East of Suez sees weaker propane demand in Japan and Korea.
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EIA data shows US propane stocks building above averages
US propane/propylene inventories continued seasonal builds, reaching levels well above year-ago and five-year averages per the latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report data through early September. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) stocks rose notably, supported by strong production and exports. Exports remained elevated while domestic balances lengthened, consistent with oversupply signals in NGL markets.
Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF at €82/MWh (down 0.5%) as EU storage at 68% lags seasonal norms, pressuring injections amid tight LNG supply.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Dutch TTF
€/MWh |
82.07 |
-0.6%
-0.50 |
+191.4% |
+153.9% |
+16.1% |
Dutch TTF
$/MMBtu |
27.75 |
-0.6%
-0.17 |
+191.4% |
+153.9% |
+16.1% |
JKM
$/MMBtu |
25.06 |
+0.7%
+0.17 |
+160.9% |
+118.9% |
+31.8% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sun, Sep 13
EU gas storage is 68.3% full, 772 TWh in store, 16.2 points below the five-year average for this date and 12.1 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 55.8%.
EU full 68.3% +0.22 pts d/d | Year ago 80.3% | 5-yr avg 84.5% same date |
Germany 55.8% |
French strike cuts Dunkirk LNG send-out to 4 GWh/day
A 24-hour strike at French power and gas operators reduced delivery capacity at the Dunkirk LNG terminal to 4 GWh/day from a normal minimum of 9.4 GWh/day starting 0700 GMT Tuesday. No cargoes were redirected, per LSEG analysts. The disruption hits LNG send-out into northwest Europe at a time when EU storage refill is lagging and Europe competes for flexible cargoes.
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China, India LNG demand to rebound post-Mideast conflict
Executives at GAIL and PetroChina said Chinese and Indian LNG imports, currently at multi-year lows, will rebound once Middle East supply normalizes and spot prices ease from near $30/MMBtu. The war has already cost the world 36 mt of LNG this year per Shell. Reduced Asian demand has eased some competition for cargoes that Europe needs for storage injections.
Read →
PTT seeks US Gulf LNG deals to diversify supply
PTT Pcl is negotiating additional LNG purchases from the US Gulf Coast and is open to minority stakes in export projects to secure better terms and diversify away from traditional sources. The move comes as global LNG markets remain tight due to Middle East disruptions, increasing inter-basin competition between Europe and Asia for spot cargoes.
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Netherlands lowers storage target to ease prices
The Dutch government reduced its gas storage filling target to 64% of capacity, 10 points below the prior goal, to ease upward pressure on wholesale prices. The change responds to an EU call for flexibility amid Middle East supply risks and lagging injections; Germany and others are also missing targets as storage sits well below seasonal averages.
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Power
What's moving · PJM files FERC backstop auction plan to fill 6.8 GW capacity shortfall driven by data-center load forecasts.
Soluna wins conditional base-load status for 100 MW ERCOT project
ERCOT conditionally classified Soluna’s 100 MW Project Dorothy wind-powered data-center campus as base load under its Batch Zero large-load interconnection process. The classification follows a similar approval for the company’s 166 MW Project Kati and preserves interconnection capacity while exempting the project from further reliability evaluation in the study. An additional 50 MW request at the site is already under separate study; the status is conditional on ERCOT’s ongoing verification process.
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Coal
What's moving · Bayan Resources force majeure on coal supply from delayed 2026 RKAB quotas tightens Indonesian exports.
Bayan declares force majeure over delayed 2026 mining quotas
PT Bayan Resources and three subsidiaries declared force majeure on coal supply contracts after Indonesia failed to approve revised 2026 production quotas (RKAB). The company, one of Indonesia’s largest exporters, produced 68 Mt in 2025 and warned of material impact on business continuity. This adds immediate supply risk to seaborne thermal coal markets already supported by LNG-to-coal switching.
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IEA lifts 2026 global coal demand forecast to record 8.94 Bt
IEA · Thu, Sep 10, 1:00 AM ET
The IEA’s Coal Mid-Year Update 2026 revises global coal demand up 1.2% to a record 8.94 billion tonnes, reversing an earlier expected decline. Higher natural gas prices from Middle East disruptions and strong El Niño cooling demand drive the shift toward coal in Europe, Japan, Korea and China. Production is forecast to fall slightly while trade volumes edge higher.
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EU carbon hits highest since January on coal power surge
EU carbon permit prices reached their highest level since January as utilities burn more coal amid high natural gas prices and depleted storage ahead of winter. Soaring LNG costs from the Iran conflict have improved coal’s competitiveness for power generation. The move increases demand for emission allowances and supports thermal coal demand in Europe.
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Agriculture
What's moving · USDA September WASDE cuts US corn yield 2.2 bu/acre to 178.5, lifts soybean price outlook 60 cents to $12/bu on tighter stocks.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
531 |
-0.4%
-2 |
+20.6% |
+23.6% |
-0.5% |
| Wheat |
721 |
-0.1%
-1 |
+42.3% |
+35.1% |
+1.3% |
| Soybeans |
1,300 |
-0.3%
-4 |
+26.2% |
+23.8% |
+0.4% |
| Sugar |
19.11 |
+0.3%
+0.05 |
+27.3% |
+20.2% |
-2.1% |
| Coffee |
286.9 |
-1.3%
-3.6 |
-17.7% |
-32.1% |
+53.4% |
| Cocoa |
5,862 |
-2.7%
-161 |
-3.3% |
-20.5% |
+116.9% |
| Cotton |
84.92 |
+0.4%
+0.37 |
+32.0% |
+27.8% |
-10.4% |
USDA trims corn yield, raises soybean price outlook
USDA September WASDE report lowered 2026 US corn production 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion on a 2.2 bu/acre yield cut to 178.5, reducing ending stocks 86 million bushels and lifting the season-average farm price 30 cents to $4.80/bu. Soybean production rose 16 million bushels to 4.5 billion on a higher yield, with exports up 25 million bushels on Chinese demand, cutting ending stocks 10 million bushels and boosting the price forecast 60 cents to $12/bu. Wheat balance sheet stayed largely steady but price rose 20 cents to $6.40/bu.
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US corn harvest at 8%, soybeans at 6% complete
USDA Crop Progress report showed US corn harvest reached 8% complete as of Sept. 13 across 13 states, ahead of the 6% five-year average, with 86% dented and 42% mature. Soybean harvest hit 6% complete, double the 3% average, with 44% dropping leaves. Winter wheat planting lagged at 8% versus 12% average, while spring wheat harvest reached 93%.
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Soybean and wheat export inspections rise, corn slips
USDA reported soybean export inspections rose to 672,759 metric tons for the week ended Sept. 10 from 464,732 the prior week, with China the top buyer. Wheat inspections increased to 456,720 tons from 431,280, led by Japan and Mexico. Corn inspections fell to 1.53 million tons from 1.67 million, little changed year-over-year, with Mexico the leading destination.
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Soybean futures rebound despite USDA yield hike
November soybeans rebounded overnight after Friday's USDA report raised yield slightly above expectations, with futures up 1.5 cents near $12.98 following a 35-cent drop. Analysts noted shrinking ending stocks to 310 million bushels and rising exports to China support potential for $14 prices despite the larger crop. Corn futures softened overnight after the yield cut exceeded some forecasts.
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Base Metals
What's moving · LME copper steadies near $14,000/t as fresh warehouse deliveries ease supply squeeze after record highs.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,049 |
-0.5%
-71 |
+13.2% |
+37.5% |
+44.7% |
Copper
SHFE $/mt |
14,189 |
-1.2%
-174 |
+11.7% |
+43.4% |
+48.7% |
Aluminium
SHFE $/mt |
3,173 |
+0.1%
+3 |
+6.6% |
+23.6% |
+9.4% |
Zinc
SHFE $/mt |
3,436 |
-1.3%
-47 |
+14.4% |
+25.0% |
+12.6% |
Nickel
SHFE $/mt |
16,312 |
-0.6%
-104 |
-3.7% |
+7.3% |
-20.6% |
Lead
SHFE $/mt |
2,082 |
-0.7%
-14 |
-5.5% |
-0.1% |
+2.1% |
Tin
SHFE $/mt |
51,938 |
-2.4%
-1,250 |
+23.6% |
+53.1% |
+51.9% |
Copper steadies near $14k/t on LME warehouse inflows
LME three-month copper steadied after hitting a four-week low, with new deliveries into exchange warehouses signaling relief from the prior supply squeeze. Prices pulled back sharply from last week’s record high driven by US tariff anticipation that diverted metal to COMEX. The move highlights how tariff-driven inventory shifts, rather than broad demand changes, are dominating near-term price action.
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Copper hits 3-week low on rising LME stocks and stronger dollar
Benchmark three-month LME copper fell 1.2% to around $14,065/t, its lowest since Aug 20, after 9,600 tonnes of inflows lifted inventories and a stronger dollar weighed on industrial metals. COMEX stocks dipped for the first time in 58 days. The cash-to-three-month spread widened, indicating easing near-term tightness amid ongoing US tariff uncertainty.
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Copper falls on US tariff decision delay uncertainty
Three-month LME copper slipped 0.20% to $14,212/t and SHFE copper dropped 0.39% as traders focused on the delayed Section 232 tariff ruling now eyed for Sep 28. White House indecision has clouded inventory arbitrage flows, leaving brokers cautious and bearish near term. COMEX stocks had built steadily on tariff expectations before the recent pause.
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SHFE copper stocks hit two-year low on regional mismatch
SHFE copper inventories fell 13.05% week-over-week to 54,780 tonnes, a new multi-year low, while global stocks diverge with COMEX building on US tariff flows and LME seeing selective inflows. The mismatch underscores how policy expectations are redirecting physical metal across regions faster than underlying mine or smelter supply shifts.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel mill losses hit record low, driving iron ore futures to multi-week lows on SGX and DCE.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
93.3 |
-0.2%
-0.2 |
-7.3% |
-2.5% |
-12.5% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
398 |
+0.4%
+2 |
+1.1% |
+2.8% |
-44.8% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
425 |
-0.2%
-1 |
+3.2% |
+3.5% |
-43.8% |
China buyer tells mills to pause Rio Tinto Pilbara Blend buys
China Mineral Resources Group instructed some steel mills to hold off on purchases of Rio Tinto’s flagship Pilbara Blend as annual contract talks reach a critical stage. The directive follows a similar pattern used against BHP and Fortescue, tightening CMRG’s leverage over more than half of China’s iron ore imports. It adds immediate pressure on seaborne supply flows and miner pricing power.
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Indonesia probes Chinese galvanised steel imports for dumping
Bernadette Christina Munthe ·
Reuters · Tue, Sep 15, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Indonesia’s Trade Ministry opened a formal anti-dumping probe into nine categories of galvanised steel from China after domestic producers reported material injury. China accounted for 81% of Indonesia’s 2.56 million tonne imports of the products from 2023 to 2025. The 12-month investigation signals rising global protectionism against Chinese steel export surges.
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Iron ore futures fall as China steel margins hit lows
DCE January iron ore futures fell 1.6% to 708.5 yuan per tonne while SGX October contracts eased near 1% to around US$95.65 per tonne. Steel mill profitability plunged 22.51 percentage points week-on-week to a record low 7.79%, prompting output cuts. Port stock reductions limited the downside but failed to offset demand weakness.
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Precious Metals
What's moving · Oil above $100 and hotter US inflation lift Fed rate-hike odds, pressuring gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,305 |
-1.1%
-47 |
-0.5% |
+16.7% |
+140.2% |
| Silver |
63.23 |
-1.4%
-0.91 |
-9.8% |
+48.9% |
+166.1% |
| Platinum |
1,751 |
-1.6%
-29 |
-13.9% |
+25.2% |
+87.8% |
| Palladium |
1,290 |
-1.4%
-18 |
-20.8% |
+9.3% |
-35.2% |
Gold dips as hot US inflation boosts Fed hike odds
Gold fell as much as 2.2% below $4,300/oz after hotter-than-expected US inflation data and surging oil prices above $100 reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes this week. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar added pressure. The move highlights near-term headwinds for precious metals from tighter policy bets despite longer-term support factors.
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Platinum forecast shifts to 2026 surplus on weak demand
The World Platinum Investment Council revised its 2026 forecast to a slim surplus of 265,000 troy ounces from a prior 297,000-ounce deficit. Total demand is now expected to fall 18% year-on-year due to investor selling and weaker Chinese jewelry demand, though longer-term demand may benefit from AI infrastructure build-out. The shift marks the first surplus since 2022.
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Tharisa prices $300m bond for Karo platinum mine
Tharisa priced a $300 million five-year senior secured Nordic bond at 98% of par with an 11% coupon to fund completion of its Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe. The oversubscribed offering drew broad global institutional demand and will support first ore to the mill in Q4 2027, more than doubling the company's PGM output once ramped up.
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Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Yttrium export curbs and November controls deadline tighten rare earth supply ahead of Xi-Trump summit.
Yttrium export curbs spark global supply flashpoint ahead of Xi-Trump summit
China's licensing regime on yttrium, imposed in April 2025 alongside six other rare earths, has produced only sporadic US shipments since late 2025, with none at all in parts of 2025 and minimal volumes to Japan. Shortages have already forced aerospace coating production stoppages and rationing. The element tops the agenda for the late-September Xi-Trump Washington summit as Beijing maintains controls until at least November 2026.
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US critical minerals investment rises yet China holds refining grip
US and Malaysian investments cut China's rare earth refining share from over 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025, but its share of other critical minerals refining climbed from 70% to 72%. Graphite, magnet rare earths, yttrium and cobalt remain the most exposed. China suspended expanded October 2025 controls until November 2026 and is expected to use dominance as leverage in talks.
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Yttrium shortages intensify ahead of Xi-Trump Washington summit
China dominates yttrium supply and has delivered only sporadic licensed exports to the US since October 2025, with shipments halting again after earlier interventions. Japan has received barely any since November 2025. The metal's use in jet-engine thermal coatings and semiconductors makes the curbs a key talking point for the September 24 Xi-Trump summit in Washington.
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Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz crisis and attacks drive all crude tanker spot rates to record highs, with MEG-China VLCC exceeding $1m/day and Suezmax/Aframax doubling in a week.
All crude tanker rates skyrocket as Hormuz crisis hits every segment
West Africa-China and US Gulf-China VLCC indexes hit all-time highs of $441,081 and $289,894 per day on Monday, with the MEG-China index topping $1m per day. Suezmax spot rates roughly doubled over the past week across routes like Black Sea-Med to $375,991 per day, while Aframax rates more than doubled on segments such as US Gulf-North Europe to $142,103 per day. The surge extends beyond VLCCs due to the ongoing Hormuz crisis and East-West pipeline attack, creating a broad 'complete take-off' in crude tanker earnings.
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Baltic Dry Index falls 1.8% to 3,445, lowest since Sept 2
The Baltic Dry Index fell 1.8% to 3,445 on Monday, extending losses for a third session to its lowest level since September 2. The Capesize index declined 2.8% to 5,912 and the Panamax index fell 0.6% to 2,393, while the Supramax index edged up 0.4% to 1,725. Commodity ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped below 10 per day over the weekend, under the 10-day average of 14.
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IRGC: oil tanker El Gaia explodes after hitting mines in Hormuz
Iran's IRGC stated that the supertanker El Gaia exploded and caught fire after striking naval mines while attempting a restricted southern route through the Strait of Hormuz. The incident underscores heightened risks and Iran's control claims over the waterway amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. CENTCOM disputed details, but the event further constrains tanker traffic and supports elevated freight rates.
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Environment
What's moving · EUAs surge to 9-month high near €88 as high gas prices boost coal burn and compliance demand.
EU states push for more free ETS allowances for industry
EU member states will seek agreement this week to revise carbon efficiency benchmarks determining free allowance allocations through 2030 in the EU ETS. The move aims to shield energy-intensive industries from high global competition and rising energy costs. Changes would increase free permits available to covered facilities.
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RGGI futures fall after record $37.65 auction clear
RGGI Allowance futures declined after the Q3 auction cleared at a record $37.65 per short ton, above the prior $35 level but below prevailing secondary market prices. The sale included Virginia allowances following its July re-entry and released cost containment reserve units. Futures reacted to the all-time high primary market outcome.
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Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · UK FCA weighs exempting tokenized gold from fund rules to boost London collateral use.
UK FCA weighs tokenized gold fund-rule exemptions
Olivier Acuna ·
CoinDesk · Mon, Sep 14, 2026
The UK Financial Conduct Authority, working with HM Treasury and the Bank of England, opened a call for input on whether certain tokenized gold products should be exempt from collective investment scheme and alternative investment fund rules. The move targets making physical gold easier to divide, transfer and pledge as wholesale collateral while preserving London’s 70% share of global notional gold trading volume. No final decision has been taken; the consultation runs until October 23.
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Tokenized gold reaches $5.1B on-chain
Tokenized gold market capitalization stands at $5.1 billion, dominated by Tether Gold (XAUT) at roughly $2.4 to 2.7 billion and Paxos Gold (PAXG) at $1.8 to 1.9 billion, accounting for over 99% of on-chain commodities. The total has more than tripled from under $1.5 billion in late 2024, with Q1 2026 spot volume reaching $90.7 billion. The figure equals less than 0.02% of the estimated $30.1 trillion physical gold market.
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RWAperp raises $2M at $50M valuation
RWAperp, a decentralized perpetuals protocol for traditional assets live on OKX X Layer, closed a $2 million funding round at a $50 million post-money valuation with investors including Lime and Cresta AI co-founders. The platform offers 19 markets including gold, silver and WTI crude oil alongside equities and indices, settled in stablecoins without requiring custody or tokenization of underlying assets.
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Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Sempra inks 20-year 0.8 Mtpa LNG supply deal with Petrobras from Port Arthur Phase 2.
Petrobras signs 20-year 0.8 Mtpa LNG deal with Sempra
Petrobras signed a 20-year sales and purchase agreement for 0.8 million tonnes per annum of LNG from Sempra Infrastructure’s Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project in Texas. The deal, announced September 14 after signing in late August, marks Petrobras as the first South American buyer in Sempra’s LNG portfolio and secures long-term U.S. supply starting around 2030 to 2031 to reduce spot-market exposure.
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Largo restructures debt, starts copper-PGM sales
Largo executed a definitive debt-restructuring agreement with Caixa Econômica Federal on September 11, extending maturities and easing near-term pressure. The vanadium producer also completed initial copper-PGM concentrate sales expected to generate about $4.7 million in September cash proceeds while temporarily cutting mining rates and shifting 2026 vanadium output to the low end of guidance.
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Glenfarne expands LNG offtake with Texas, Alaska volumes
Glenfarne Global Commodities secured 1.5 MTPA of LNG offtake from Texas LNG for Atlantic markets and positioned to add Alaska LNG volumes once customer allocations finalize. The moves provide portfolio flexibility across basins ahead of Texas LNG FID and support project financing with amended EQT offtake terms.
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Mercuria forms JV with Eni to trade energy commodities
Mercuria and Eni agreed a 50:50 joint venture headquartered in Geneva to trade crude oil, refined fuels, biofuels, gas and LNG. The standalone venture combines Mercuria’s trading expertise with Eni’s physical assets and is Mercuria’s second JV this year.
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Agnico Eagle sells Alaska projects to Vizsla Copper for shares
Agnico Eagle agreed to sell its Delta base/precious metals project and Helm Bay gold project in Alaska to Vizsla Copper in exchange for shares representing about 19.99% of Vizsla plus contingent milestone payments. The transaction gives Agnico exposure to Vizsla’s copper assets while exiting non-core Alaska holdings.
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Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump energy truce, EPA power-plant rule repeal, and diesel crunch drive commodity policy moves.
Trump scraps Biden power-plant climate rules
The EPA finalized repeal of 2024 Biden-era carbon pollution standards for coal and gas power plants and proposed eliminating remaining greenhouse-gas rules, projecting $310 billion in savings. The move reverses requirements for emissions controls or plant retirements and seeks to block future regulation under the Clean Air Act. It boosts fossil-fuel output including coal and natural gas while cutting compliance costs for the power sector.
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Ukraine-Russia energy truce won't ease diesel crunch
Ron Bousso ·
Reuters · Tue, Sep 15, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Trump announced Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt strikes on each other's energy infrastructure amid record US diesel prices above $6/gallon. Even if the truce holds, extensive refinery damage in Russia and the Gulf plus export bans mean diesel supply shortfalls of 1.6 million bpd will persist into 2027. Refining capacity losses from both conflicts outweigh any near-term relief from halted attacks.
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FCA weighs tokenised gold fund exemptions
The UK FCA launched a call for input on tokenising gold to improve trading, transfer, pledging and collateral use in wholesale markets. It is exploring a bespoke regime or exemptions from collective investment scheme rules to unlock London bullion reserves. The initiative aims to enhance efficiency and competitiveness while preserving market integrity.
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What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil tops $100 as Hormuz traffic slows amid Iran war
Traders on X are buzzing over Brent and WTI climbing above $100-$108 as US-Iran conflict and Houthi actions disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping, with some grades like Dates Brent reported over $130. Discussions highlight prolonged supply risks, potential $170 oil scenarios, and macro impacts on inflation and Fed policy. The topic dominates #OOTT and energy trader feeds with real-time tanker and price updates.
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Baytex buys Surge Energy in accretive oil deal
PetroGirl highlights the Baytex-Surge Energy buyout as a strong fit for cash-rich Baytex, combining core reservoirs and positioning for multiples expansion in Canadian oil. Traders see it as bullish for producers amid high oil prices, with shares reacting positively in energy names. The post ties into broader #OOTT M&A chatter.
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Petrobras inks 20-year LNG SPA with Sempra
Sergio Chapa reports Petrobras committing to 0.8 mtpa from Sempra's Port Arthur LNG Phase Two for 20 years, signaling sustained demand for US LNG exports to Brazil. LNG and natgas traders on #OOTT view it as supportive for US liquefaction projects amid global energy shifts. Deal details shared from Sempra release.
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Brent over $130 as Hormuz and Yemen tensions rise
Syed Muhammad Osama flags Dates Brent exceeding $130 with Pyrenees grade at $138, citing tanker and shipping constraints from Hormuz and Yemen issues. Traders discuss $170 oil as increasingly realistic in the #OOTT community. Real-time price screenshots and analyst notes fuel the conversation.
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Ukraine hits Russian oil sites as Trump urges halt
ZmansEnrgyBrain and others flag Ukraine drone strikes on Samara diesel storage in Russia, contradicting recent Trump calls to pause energy target attacks. #OOTT traders debate escalation risks to global supply and refining capacity amid the ongoing conflict.
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Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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