Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Monday, September 14, 2026 · 47 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Mon, Sep 14, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Brent $107.84 (+$3.23, +3.1%; physical over $120) and WTI $103.38 (+$3.33, +3.3%) after Saudi shut the East-West pipeline following Thursday’s drone strikes. Friday’s dip and weekend price action had priced in hoped-for Oman talks on a temporary Hormuz lane (in via Iran, out via Oman); those Salalah meetings were postponed Sunday “in the interests of consensus” after objections and another vessel hit. Reuters sources put pipeline repairs at a possible partial restart soon to as long as 5 to 6 weeks (an April pump-station hit was fixed in 3 days).
Silver down $2.22 (-3.4%) on stronger dollar and higher rate-hike odds after hot US inflation data.
Palladium down $40 (-3.1%) on higher rate-hike expectations weighing on industrial demand.
Nat Gas up $0.074 (+2.6%) and Dutch TTF up $1.98 (+2.5%) on Middle East tensions disrupting global LNG flows and boosting demand for US and European gas.
Platinum down $40 (-2.2%) on higher rate-hike bets pressuring non-yielding metals.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends short 26Q3-Dec28 Brent timespread on the 2026 oil supply wave keeping the market in surplus.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil hits $108 as Hormuz talks postponed
Brent crude surged above $108 a barrel after Gulf states postponed a key meeting with Iran on the Strait of Hormuz due to lack of consensus. The delay compounds pressure from the recent closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline following drone attacks, further restricting export routes that bypass the blocked waterway.
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Oil jumps as Saudi pipeline shut after attacks
Brent rose as much as 3.7% toward $108 a barrel after Saudi Arabia halted its East-West pipeline following drone attacks. The 5 to 7 million bpd capacity line, a vital Hormuz bypass, was shut as a precaution with no restart timeline given, tightening global supply amid ongoing Middle East disruptions.
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Saudi shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline after attacks
Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline, which carries up to 7 million barrels a day from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, after multiple drone strikes from Iraq. The shutdown eliminates a key workaround for exports since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by the U.S.-Iran conflict.
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Trump urges Ukraine to spare Russian refineries
President Trump said he warned Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to stop targeting Russian oil refineries, citing the resulting diesel shortage driving U.S. retail prices above $6 a gallon for the first time. Strikes have curtailed Russian diesel output, exacerbating global refined-product tightness amid Middle East supply shocks.
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Diesel shortage set to persist amid dual wars
Javier Blas ·
Bloomberg · Sun, Sep 13, 11:00 PM ET
U.S. diesel prices have topped $6 a gallon for the first time as the U.S.-Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war create a massive refined-product shortage. Wholesale prices above $5 signal further pump pain, with no quick fix available as refiners cannot rapidly scale output.
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In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil
What's moving · Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown and postponed Hormuz talks drive Brent above $107 as supply risks escalate.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
103.38 |
+3.3%
+3.33 |
+80.0% |
+63.3% |
+46.7% |
| Brent |
107.84 |
+3.1%
+3.23 |
+77.2% |
+59.9% |
+46.5% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.399 |
+2.8%
+0.092 |
+87.4% |
+58.8% |
+47.1% |
| Heating Oil |
5.054 |
+1.9%
+0.095 |
+128.3% |
+107.7% |
+124.0% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
39.37 |
+1.3%
+0.52 |
+110.3%
+20.65 |
+48.0%
+12.78 |
+48.4%
+12.84 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
108.89 |
+0.6%
+0.65 |
+206.5%
+73.36 |
+180.1%
+70.02 |
+348.8%
+84.62 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
62.54 |
+0.9%
+0.56 |
+157.1%
+38.22 |
+103.8%
+31.86 |
+142.6%
+36.77 |
Oil jumps 2%+ on Saudi pipeline shutdown, Hormuz strikes
Oil prices rose more than 2% on Monday after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following drone attacks from Iraq, threatening up to 4% of global supply routed around the Strait of Hormuz. Fresh Houthi strikes on Saudi targets and Iranian attacks on a vessel in the Gulf added pressure, while a planned Iran-Gulf meeting in Oman on Hormuz shipping was postponed. Brent reached $107.51 per barrel and WTI $102.32, extending last week's 8% rally.
Read →
Oman postpones Iran-Gulf Hormuz talks for consensus
Oman postponed a Monday meeting in Salalah between Iran and Gulf states on Strait of Hormuz shipping arrangements to allow conditions for constructive dialogue. The Omani foreign minister cited the need for consensus; Iran confirmed the joint decision followed requests from some regional countries including Bahrain's refusal to attend. The delay removes near-term diplomatic relief for disrupted tanker flows.
Read →
IEA cuts 2026 oil demand, supply forecasts sharply
The IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast to a 2.5 million bpd decline, 940,000 bpd steeper than last month, citing the Iran war's impact on flows and high fuel prices. World supply is now seen falling 5.7 million bpd this year, with full Gulf recovery delayed until 2027. Saudi output hit its lowest in over three decades at 6 million bpd in August amid attacks and blockades.
Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · LNG feedgas hits 19.6 Bcf/d peak while EIA storage builds 40 Bcf, capping Henry Hub near $2.80.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.905 |
+2.6%
+0.074 |
-21.2% |
-4.5% |
-44.8% |
LNG feedgas surges to 19.6 Bcf/d, strongest since April.
Deliveries to US export terminals hit 19.6 Bcf/d on Friday per NGI Entropic Analytics data, up from a recent 18.4 Bcf/d average as Freeport and Corpus Christi recovered from maintenance. The seven-day average reached 19.1 Bcf/d. Stronger LNG pull tightens the domestic balance and supports prices despite ample storage.
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Golden Pass Train 1 draws only one-third capacity.
Golden Pass Train 1 nominations fell 46% to 277,000 Dth/d in September, far below expectations five months into commissioning. Analysts at Aegis flag delays for Trains 2 and 3. The slow ramp trims winter and early-2027 demand forecasts by several hundred MMcf/d.
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No hurricanes boost LNG feedgas 2+ Bcf/d above 2025.
Atlantic hurricane season peaked with zero named storms, an ACE index at a 1941-era low. US LNG terminals ran unimpeded and feedgas deliveries exceeded 2025 levels by more than 2 Bcf/d. El Niño conditions further suppressed tropical activity through the peak risk window.
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane settles at 84.6¢/gal (+2.3%) on record US propane stocks build and export flows.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Ethane
C2 $/gal |
0.250 |
+0.7%
+0.002 |
+5.5% |
+2.7% |
-35.2% |
Propane
C3 $/gal |
0.846 |
+2.3%
+0.019 |
+37.2% |
+19.7% |
-31.2% |
Isobutane
IC4 $/gal |
1.454 |
+2.4%
+0.033 |
+87.0% |
+62.4% |
+3.2% |
N-Butane
NC4 $/gal |
1.264 |
+1.7%
+0.021 |
+69.6% |
+42.4% |
-11.6% |
Pentane
C5 $/gal |
2.049 |
+2.4%
+0.047 |
+74.8% |
+56.6% |
+23.6% |
| Spread |
Now |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal |
6 |
unch |
+7 |
+2 |
+2 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal |
58 |
+1 |
+30 |
+15 |
-17 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt |
-668 |
+8 |
-363 |
-292 |
-302 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt |
-421 |
+17 |
-254 |
-224 |
-396 |
| C5 as % WTI |
83 |
-1 |
-3 |
-4 |
-16 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Aramco halts Juaymah LPG exports after facility damage.
Saudi Aramco suspended LPG exports from its Juaymah terminal following structural damage to propane and butane delivery systems on Feb 23. Cargoes scheduled for coming weeks were cancelled while repairs continue. The outage tightens Middle East supply, supporting US Gulf Coast export margins and Mont Belvieu prices.
Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF surges 5% to €83+/MWh on Middle East LNG supply fears and sub-70% EU storage.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Dutch TTF
€/MWh |
81.50 |
+2.5%
+1.98 |
+189.4% |
+153.5% |
+23.9% |
Dutch TTF
$/MMBtu |
27.58 |
+2.5%
+0.67 |
+189.4% |
+153.5% |
+23.9% |
JKM
$/MMBtu |
24.89 |
+0.3%
+0.07 |
+159.1% |
+119.1% |
+31.4% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sat, Sep 12
EU gas storage is 68.0% full, 770 TWh in store, 16.3 points below the five-year average for this date and 12.1 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 55.6%.
EU full 68.0% +0.26 pts d/d | Year ago 80.1% | 5-yr avg 84.3% same date |
Germany 55.6% |
TTF jumps above €83/MWh on Middle East LNG risks
The October TTF contract rose above €83/MWh intraday Monday, up over 5% from Friday's €79.52 close, driven by renewed Middle East tensions including Saudi pipeline issues and Hormuz shipping risks that threaten Qatari LNG flows. EU storage sits at 68% full per GIE data, well below seasonal norms, forcing Europe to compete harder with Asia for spot cargoes. The European Commission sees no immediate winter supply risk but notes prolonged disruptions could intensify global competition and lift prices further.
Read →
TTF hits €82.51/MWh with EU storage at 68%
TTF settled near €82.51/MWh on September 13, up €3.21 or 4.05% day-over-day and +10.1% over the past week, as storage lags at 68% of capacity (-20pp vs. 88% norm). JKM LNG holds around $24.88/MMBtu, keeping the inter-basin arb tight and supporting European bids for flexible Atlantic cargoes. Elevated geopolitical risk keeps the market sensitive to any escalation in Red Sea or Gulf shipping disruptions.
Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM 2028/29 capacity auction cleared at $325/MW-day cap amid data-center-driven shortfall; ERCOT audits 400+ data-center projects in Batch Zero.
ERCOT real-time hub prices average $30/MWh overnight Sep 13.
ERCOT · Sun, Sep 13, 2026
ERCOT real-time settlement point prices across hubs and load zones averaged around $30/MWh in the early overnight hours of September 13, 2026, with minor fluctuations between roughly $27/MWh and $33/MWh. No scarcity alerts or price spikes were reported, reflecting normal grid conditions with adequate reserves. This provides a baseline for weekend power pricing in Texas amid ongoing large-load interconnection reviews.
Read →
French EPEX day-ahead prices turn negative midday Sep 13.
EPEX SPOT day-ahead prices for France on September 13, 2026, reached negative territory around midday, with a low of -0.01 €/MWh at 12:00 and several hours near zero before rising to a 234 €/MWh peak at 20:00. The average settled near 130 €/MWh, down slightly from the prior day. Abundant renewable output relative to lower weekend demand drove the midday negatives, a recurring feature in European spot markets.
Read →
MISO peaks at 92.9 GW with $904/MWh marginal cost Sep 13.
MISO recorded a peak demand of 92,917 MW on September 13, 2026, at 5:15 PM ET with a minimum reserve margin of 4.1 GW and a maximum marginal cost of $903.77/MWh. The day was graded as an 'ALERT' status before closing normal. This highlights tightening conditions in the Midwest ISO during the period, though no system-wide scarcity pricing or conservation alerts were detailed in the update.
Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal holds near $147/t as Middle East conflict lifts global demand via higher gas prices.
Punjab coal supply adequate; state urged to lift captive mine output
India's Coal Ministry said adequate coal reached Punjab IPPs like NPL and TSPL, with rake supplies exceeding recent consumption. It called on the state to evacuate 321,000 tonnes of stockpiled coal from PSPCL's Pachhwara Central mine to boost local generation. The statement counters reports of power shortages amid high summer demand.
Read →
Met coal prices steady; China demand softens while India buys
BigMint Bureau ·
BigMint · Sun, Sep 13, 11:54 PM ET
Premium hard coking coal held at $236.80/t FOB Australia but CFR China eased $1/t to $219/t on weaker import interest. Dalian futures fell over 5%, curbing seaborne buying. Indonesian met coke strengthened on a $255/t FOB trade, while Indian and Korean buyers supported US and Australian met coal volumes.
Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA September WASDE cuts US corn yield to 178.5 bu/acre and trims ending stocks while lifting global wheat stocks.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
530 |
-0.1%
-1 |
+20.3% |
+25.1% |
+5.3% |
| Wheat |
727 |
+0.2%
+2 |
+43.3% |
+38.4% |
+6.1% |
| Soybeans |
1,297 |
+0.0%
+0 |
+25.8% |
+24.3% |
+1.6% |
| Sugar |
19.03 |
-0.5%
-0.10 |
+26.8% |
+18.9% |
+0.4% |
| Coffee |
284.6 |
-0.4%
-1.1 |
-18.4% |
-34.2% |
+55.5% |
| Cocoa |
5,923 |
-0.6%
-38 |
-2.3% |
-21.4% |
+119.7% |
| Cotton |
84.98 |
-1.3%
-1.08 |
+32.1% |
+29.8% |
-10.6% |
USDA cuts US corn yield, trims stocks; lifts global wheat
The September 11 WASDE lowered 2026 to 27 US corn yield to 178.5 bushels per acre from 180.7, cutting production to 15.80 billion bushels and ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks fell to 310 million bushels on higher exports despite record production. Global wheat ending stocks rose on larger harvests elsewhere, with US wheat stocks steady at 717 million bushels.
Read →
Soybean flash sales lift grains; China eyes corn, wheat
Michelle Rook ·
AgWeb · Wed, Sep 11, 2026
USDA confirmed a 13.7 million bushel soybean flash sale to unknown destinations, widely viewed as China buying. Corn and wheat futures rose on reports China is inquiring about bids for those crops too. Analysts noted the timing aligns with US prices turning competitive versus Brazil.
Read →
China buys 1M tonnes US soybeans pre-summit
Chinese buyers purchased about 1 million metric tonnes of US soybeans this week, confirmed by USDA export sales data showing at least 612,000 tonnes to China Sept. 9 to 10. Cumulative 2026 to 27 purchases reach roughly 12.5 million tonnes, half the 25 million tonne annual commitment. Purchases coincide with an expected Trump-Xi meeting later this month.
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Brazil coffee shipments to lift ICE stocks, pressure prices
Traders plan to certify at least 300,000 bags of Brazilian arabica at ICE warehouses, where stocks sit at 26-year lows. Olam alone seeks to certify 150,000 to 200,000 bags for December delivery. Rising certified stocks could trigger algorithmic selling and ease recent price gains despite an expected 2026/27 surplus.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper slips on hotter US inflation lifting Fed rate-hike odds, pressuring the base metals complex.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,151 |
-2.0%
-284 |
+14.0% |
+37.9% |
+48.7% |
Copper
SHFE $/mt |
14,362 |
-0.5%
-65 |
+13.1% |
+45.1% |
+50.6% |
Aluminium
SHFE $/mt |
3,170 |
-0.7%
-23 |
+6.5% |
+23.5% |
+9.3% |
Zinc
SHFE $/mt |
3,482 |
-1.6%
-55 |
+15.9% |
+26.6% |
+14.1% |
Nickel
SHFE $/mt |
16,417 |
-1.2%
-193 |
-3.1% |
+8.0% |
-20.1% |
Lead
SHFE $/mt |
2,095 |
-1.5%
-33 |
-4.9% |
+0.5% |
+2.8% |
Tin
SHFE $/mt |
53,188 |
-2.0%
-1,114 |
+26.6% |
+56.8% |
+55.6% |
Copper slips on US inflation data boosting Fed hike bets
LME copper futures fell as much as 0.6% after hotter-than-expected US inflation data prompted traders to raise bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. Most other major base metal contracts also traded lower amid a stronger dollar and broader risk-asset pressure. The move follows copper’s first weekly decline since June.
Read →
Glencore, Mercuria eye Venezuela’s largest aluminium smelter
Glencore and Mercuria are separately in talks with Venezuela’s government over potential deals for the state-owned Venalum smelter, Latin America’s largest with 430,000 tpa capacity. Discussions include operating the facility and securing access to its output. Interest comes amid global aluminium supply disruptions from Middle East conflict.
Read →
China sees coordinated base metals inventory drawdowns
SMM data shows SHFE copper inventories at 54,780 t after a 13.05% weekly drop, aluminium down 4.67%, while zinc rose modestly. Coordinated destocking in China reinforces physical market tightness outside the US, supporting near-term pricing for copper and aluminium despite macro headwinds.
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SMM reports broad base metals price declines
SMM spot prices on Sep 14 showed copper cathode at $16,193.77/t (-51.85), aluminium ingot at $3,580.94/t (-21.28), zinc at $3,914.05/t (-41.85), nickel at $18,752.32/t (-209.81), tin at $59,870.62/t (-1,147.03), and battery-grade lithium carbonate at $20,618.63/t (-520.58). SHFE inventories reflected mixed but generally tight conditions across the complex.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel mill losses force blast-furnace output cuts, pressuring iron ore prices and SGX/DCE futures.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
93.5 |
-1.3%
-1.2 |
-7.1% |
-2.3% |
-12.3% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
397 |
+0.1%
+0 |
+0.7% |
+2.3% |
-45.0% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
426 |
-0.4%
-2 |
+3.3% |
+3.7% |
-43.7% |
Whyalla steelworks shuts blast furnace, cuts 600 jobs
Administrators KordaMentha announced the permanent closure of the 60-year-old blast furnace at Whyalla steelworks in South Australia after failed restart attempts. The move affects 500 employees and 100 contractors, reducing the workforce from 1,700 to about 1,200 while the sale process continues with government support. The shutdown highlights challenges for aging integrated steel operations amid shifting technology and weak margins.
Read →
China iron ore futures fall on weak steel margins
DCE iron ore futures dropped to around 708.50 CNY/t, down 1.32% on the session and extending a multi-day decline. Weakening profitability at Chinese steel mills, with only about 30% profitable recently, drove production curbs including lower blast-furnace operating rates and pig-iron output. Port inventories slipped modestly while mill restocking remained limited, weighing on near-term demand for imported ore.
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Iron ore falls as China steel output cuts hit demand
Chinese blast-furnace operating rates fell 0.48 percentage points week-on-week to 89.08%, with daily pig-iron output dropping 5,200 tonnes to 2.4028 million tonnes. Mysteel’s SEADEX 61% Fe fines index declined $1.50/t to $95.85 while DCE futures settled 1.71% lower at 718 CNY/t. The cuts directly reduced demand for seaborne iron ore, pressuring prices and miner valuations including Vale.
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China iron ore port stocks fall to 170.23 Mt
Mysteel’s survey showed imported iron ore inventories at 47 major Chinese ports declined 1.08 million tonnes or 0.6% week-on-week to 170.23 million tonnes as of September 10. The second straight weekly drop occurred amid subdued steelmaker demand and production curtailments. Spot and futures prices for imported ore weakened over the prior week as mills responded to deepening losses.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Hotter-than-expected US August core CPI lifts September Fed hike odds to 90%, pressuring gold and silver prices.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,326 |
-1.9%
-83 |
+0.0% |
+17.5% |
+139.7% |
| Silver |
62.97 |
-3.4%
-2.22 |
-10.2% |
+48.1% |
+164.1% |
| Platinum |
1,758 |
-2.2%
-40 |
-13.6% |
+24.4% |
+87.2% |
| Palladium |
1,284 |
-3.1%
-40 |
-21.2% |
+6.6% |
-34.9% |
Gold rebounds on dip-buying as Fed hike odds climb post-CPI.
Pablo Sinha ·
Reuters · Fri, Sep 11, 5:00 PM ET
Spot gold rose over 1% on Friday to around $4,377 after August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding the 0.2% forecast and pushing CME FedWatch odds of a September rate hike to roughly 90%. The print reinforced expectations of tighter policy amid resilient inflation and higher oil prices, yet physical buying supported prices near $4,350 support. The move highlights gold's dual role as both a hedge and a rate-sensitive asset in the current environment.
Read →
Tharisa prices $300m bond to fund Zimbabwe platinum mine.
Liesl Peyper ·
Miningmx · Fri, Sep 11, 8:45 AM ET
Tharisa successfully priced a $300 million five-year senior secured Nordic bond at 98% of par with an 11% coupon to complete its Karo platinum project in Zimbabwe, where first ore is expected in Q4 2027. The oversubscribed offering drew broad international demand and follows a 25-year mining lease and offtake agreement, positioning the company to more than double PGM output. The financing de-risks a major new supply source in a market facing potential deficits.
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Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China’s November 10 export-control suspension expiry looms as the dominant near-term driver for rare earths and critical minerals pricing and supply chains.
Yttrium export licensing tightens as US-China talks near
China’s April 2025 licensing requirements on yttrium and six other heavy rare earths remain in force, with US shipments delivered in irregular, limited volumes including 29 tons in July. The controls have caused repeated shortages for US aerospace turbine coatings and other users, prompting direct White House interventions. The element is now a key pressure point ahead of the September Xi-Trump meeting and the November 10, 2026 suspension expiry.
Read →
Cobra advances Wudinna rare earth purification
ANSTO test work on Cobra Resources’ Wudinna project achieved over 97% radium removal, up to 90% actinium removal and 1 to 30% lanthanum reduction while retaining over 90% of magnet and heavy rare earths. The results support plans for a higher-purity mixed rare earth carbonate product. Further engineering and scoping studies will evaluate the upgraded flowsheet.
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Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz attacks and pipeline outages drive VLCC rates to record highs above $980k/day while BDI slips to 3,521.
VLCC rates hit record highs across routes amid Hormuz chaos
Baltic Exchange MEG-China VLCC index reached $982,072 per day on Friday, doubling in a month, with Clarksons assessing over $1 million per day; Oman-China hit $571,387 per day up 113% week-on-week. The surge stems from fleet inefficiencies in Hormuz workarounds like GOO STS transfers and Yanbu-Sidi Kerir detours, exacerbated by recent Iranian attacks reducing transits to a trickle and a Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown after drone strikes. Atlantic routes also spiked, with US Gulf-China at $269,680 per day and lump sums near $34 million, as Chinese importers rebuild stocks and longer voyages tighten tonnage supply.
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Hormuz transits stay in single digits over weekend
Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to single digits per day over the weekend, below the 10-day average of 14, with four exits and ten entries including a Suezmax crude carrier and various bulkers. Pre-war daily averages reached about 125 large commercial vessels; the drop follows escalated attacks and a US blockade of Iranian shipping. Bab el-Mandeb traffic held near average at 24 to 27 vessels, but overall chokepoint risks persist with Houthis advancing near the strait.
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Oil shipping costs rise as Hormuz and Red Sea risks mount
Wayne Cole ·
Reuters · Mon, Sep 14, 4:33 AM ET
Brent crude rose above $107 per barrel as Houthis advance on Bab el-Mandeb, warning of strikes on Saudi vessels, while tanker rates hit records last week amid bunker shortages and a Saudi East-West pipeline outage carrying 4 to 5 million bpd hit by Iraqi drone attacks. The meeting to discuss a safe Hormuz channel was postponed, forcing longer reroutes via Suez or around Africa that add 22 days and sharply higher fuel and hire costs. Roughly 80% of global trade moves by sea, amplifying the impact on energy and commodity flows.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · RGGI Q3 auction clears at record $37.65 as EU Parliament advances ETS reform proposals with slower cap cuts and higher MSR thresholds.
RGGI Q3 auction clears at record $37.65
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative's 73rd quarterly auction on September 9 cleared 28.5 million allowances at a record $37.65 per ton, exceeding the prior $35.00 level and generating over $1.07 billion. The result came in about 4% below secondary market prices but set a new high amid Virginia's rejoining and tighter supply dynamics. This strengthens the compliance carbon price signal for power-sector emitters in the Northeast.
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Liese proposes 75% ETS revenue for industry decarbonization
Kate Abnett ·
Reuters · Fri, Sep 11, 2026
European Parliament ETS rapporteur Peter Liese proposed requiring member states to direct 75% of ETS auction revenues to decarbonizing covered industries, up from the Commission's 50% target. The draft also slows the linear reduction factor to 3.4% annually from 2031 to 2035 before accelerating to 2.3% later, aiming to give industry breathing room while preserving long-term climate goals. Negotiations between Parliament and member states are expected in coming months.
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CFTC finalizes guidance on VCC derivatives quality
The CFTC issued finalized guidance for designated contract markets listing voluntary carbon credit futures, emphasizing Core Carbon Principles including additionality, permanence, robust quantification, and independent verification. The rules aim to boost transparency, reduce manipulation risks, and build buyer confidence in the VCM amid growing corporate demand. EDF called it a key step for scaling high-integrity credits in compliance and voluntary markets.
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Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · UK FCA weighs exempting tokenized gold from fund rules to boost London bullion trading.
UK FCA weighs exempting tokenized gold from fund rules
The UK Financial Conduct Authority is reviewing, with the Treasury and Bank of England, whether to exempt certain tokenized gold products or infrastructure from collective investment scheme and alternative investment fund rules. The move targets easier division, transfer, and collateral use of physical bullion in wholesale markets while preserving London's 70% share of global gold trading volumes. No final decision has been made; proposals are expected Monday as part of broader tokenized wholesale-market work.
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Tokenized gold hits $5.1B in $46.4B RWA market
On-chain RWA value reached $46.4 billion, with tokenized gold at $5.1 billion or 11% of the total. XAUT leads at $2.7 billion and PAXG at $1.9 billion among the tracked assets. The figure underscores gold's dominance within the tokenized-commodities segment amid broader RWA growth.
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Hyperliquid backs CFTC vs CME on perps
Hyperliquid Policy Center filed an amicus brief, represented by former Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, arguing CME lacks standing to challenge the CFTC's approval of crypto and commodity perpetual futures. The filing supports the regulator's position that any CFTC-registered exchange can list such products and warns that a CME win would stifle innovation across futures markets.
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Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Middle East supply shocks and Asian LNG security deals drive corporate moves as Petronas/PTT extend gas pacts and Dangote launches Africa's largest refinery IPO.
Petronas, PTT win approvals for new Malaysia-Thailand gas PSC
Petronas and PTT subsidiaries secured government approvals for a new 35-year production-sharing contract on Block A-18-01 in the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area, effective from January 1, 2026. The deal extends development beyond the prior contract's April 2029 expiry and adds exploration acreage across 7,250 sq km with 700 MMscfd combined capacity. It includes a gas sales agreement to sustain supplies to both countries amid Middle East disruptions.
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Dangote launches Africa's largest refinery IPO at $1.6B target
Aliko Dangote opened Africa's largest IPO, offering 4.1 billion shares in the 700,000 bpd Dangote Petroleum Refinery at 525 naira each to raise up to 2.15 trillion naira ($1.6 billion). The 10-year, $20 billion-built plant runs at full capacity and plans expansion to 1.4 million bpd by 2029; proceeds fund growth. The offer targets retail investors with a 10-share minimum and closes October 13.
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Chevron targets Argentina, Mediterranean LNG expansion
Chevron's Global Gas president said the company seeks LNG portfolio growth in Argentina and the East Mediterranean to reach 20 mtpa supply capacity amid buyer security concerns from Middle East disruptions. It already has 16 mtpa net production plus 4 mtpa U.S. Gulf Coast contracts. India demand is expected to grow, though price sensitivity remains a hurdle for new deals.
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Uniper sells 20% Opal gas pipeline stake to Hy24
Uniper agreed to sell its 20% stake in the Opal gas pipeline, one of Europe's largest transmission corridors, to Hy24, a hydrogen-focused joint venture of Ardian and FiveT Hydrogen. The deal advances EU-mandated asset disposals tied to Uniper's 2022 state bailout, subject to regulatory approval and Gascade's pre-emption right. Financial terms were not disclosed.
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Metlen signs five-year LNG supply pact with Petronas
Anthony O. Goriainoff ·
Dow Jones · Mon, Sep 14, 6:41 AM ET
Metlen Energy & Metals signed a long-term LNG supply agreement with Petronas under which Petco Trading will deliver six cargoes (0.6 bcm/year) annually from Petronas' Atlantic portfolio over five years starting 2027. The deal diversifies Metlen's LNG sourcing, boosts supply security for Greece and Southeast Europe, and reinforces Greece as a regional energy hub.
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Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump tariff relief on Irish whiskey and call to halt Ukraine refinery strikes drive Regulation & Government moves.
Trump to lift 10% US tariffs on Irish whiskey
US President Donald Trump announced Sunday at a golf event in Ireland that he will remove the 10% tariff on Irish whiskey exports to the US. The duty formed part of broader EU wine and spirits tariffs from a prior trade deal, later adjusted under July Section 301 measures. The Irish Whiskey Association welcomed the move and will push for zero tariffs across drinks exports.
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Trump urges Ukraine to halt Russian refinery strikes
US President Donald Trump stated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian diesel refineries, not his Iran policy, are driving record US diesel prices. He called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop targeting diesel fuel facilities while allowing other strikes. The remarks came amid surging refined product prices tied to supply disruptions.
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FCA proposes exempting tokenised gold from rules
The UK Financial Conduct Authority is considering a bespoke regulatory regime to exempt tokenised gold from standard fund rules. The proposal aims to unlock more of London’s physical bullion reserves for use as collateral in transactions. It forms part of efforts to digitize wholesale markets and maintain London’s gold trading dominance.
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What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Missiles strike Saudi oil sites as Hormuz risks spike prices
Traders and observers on X highlight new Yemeni missile strikes on Saudi sites in Jizan and elsewhere, with direct hits on oil facilities reported. This escalates energy supply fears alongside ongoing Hormuz disruptions and a delayed Iran-Gulf meeting. Oil traders note the strategic East-West pipeline remains out, amplifying the risk premium in crude markets.
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Oil spikes as Brent hits $108 on Middle East hits
Market watchers flag sharp crude gains with Brent at $108.23 and WTI at $103.20 on fresh Saudi attacks and Hormuz shipping threats. The stalled Iran-Gulf talks on the strait compound worries over rerouted or lost supply. Discussions emphasize renewed escalation in energy risk and potential for further volatility.
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Pipeline hits add to Hormuz woes and crude rally
Reddit's r/oil threads discuss catastrophic damage to multiple sections of Saudi Arabia's key East-West pipeline, seen as a critical backup when Hormuz is impaired. Users link it to recent attacks and note impacts on global flows, with prices already elevated. Retail traders highlight supply chain vulnerabilities and bullish positioning in energy.
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US pressure sidelines Iran nuke official at IAEA
X accounts covering energy and geopolitics note US-led efforts blocking Iran's nuclear chief from an IAEA meeting in Vienna. This ties into broader Hormuz negotiations and energy security tensions. Traders see it as heightening nuclear and supply risks, potentially supporting uranium and oil volatility.
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Canada oil export talks with EU vs US draw scrutiny
X users discuss Canadian energy exports, noting EU interest in oil and resources amid US tensions. Skepticism arises over fair pricing and market access compared to US buyers. Threads link it to broader commodity trade realignments under geopolitical stress.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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