Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Thursday, August 27, 2026 · 44 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Thu, Aug 27, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Coffee down $11.8 (-3.7%) on accelerating Brazil harvest progress and rising supply expectations.
Dutch TTF down $1.27 (-1.9%) on easing geopolitical risk premium after US-Iran de-escalation signals.
JKM down $0.38 (-1.6%) on profit-taking and moderating Asian demand signals amid stable supply flows.
Tin (SHFE $/mt) down $697 (-1.2%) on macro pressure from stronger US dollar and consolidation after recent highs.
Nat Gas up $0.030 (+1.1%) on hotter-than-normal US weather forecasts boosting power-sector demand.
Cotton up $0.78 (+0.9%) on deteriorating US crop conditions and tightening supply outlook.
Kicker: Long Dec26 coffee vs short Dec26 sugar spread on Brazil harvest pressure vs West Africa cocoa/cocoa-related supply risks, per recent ags desk notes.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
UK energy price cap rises 4% to £1,723 amid Iran war
UK energy regulator Ofgem raised the domestic price cap by 4% to £1,723 a year from October, hitting around 22 million households, driven by wholesale gas prices more than doubling since the US-Iran conflict began in February and curtailed Strait of Hormuz shipments.
Read →
Iran conflict nears stalemate as Hormuz talks resume
A senior shipping executive warned the Iran-US war is heading toward a Ukraine-like stalemate with neither side able to secure decisive gains, as freight rates stay at record highs even while oil prices ease on fresh Iran-Oman talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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Wealthy investors pile into physical gold bars
Affluent investors and family offices have driven a surge in physical gold demand and vault storage needs worldwide, fueled by geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and concerns over the US dollar and public debt, with gold prices remaining elevated near records.
Read →
Oil
What's moving · Hormuz corridor talks and tanker exits drive oil prices down sharply for fourth straight day.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
82.02 |
-0.3%
-0.21 |
+42.8% |
+27.0% |
+19.3% |
| Brent |
87.80 |
-0.0%
-0.04 |
+42.6% |
+26.5% |
+19.4% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.294 |
-0.8%
-0.026 |
+72.5% |
+33.8% |
+29.4% |
| Heating Oil |
4.228 |
-0.8%
-0.032 |
+94.3% |
+78.4% |
+95.3% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
56.33 |
-1.5%
-0.89 |
+147.4%
+33.56 |
+45.2%
+17.52 |
+47.5%
+18.13 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
95.56 |
-1.2%
-1.13 |
+181.3%
+61.59 |
+173.5%
+60.61 |
+331.3%
+73.40 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
69.40 |
-1.4%
-0.97 |
+161.9%
+42.90 |
+85.0%
+31.89 |
+111.3%
+36.55 |
Oil edges lower on Hormuz talks, Russia risk
Traders weighed Hormuz flow progress against Russia-Ukraine tensions curbing output. Brent traded near $87 a barrel, down more than 7% this week; WTI near $82. Gains on Ukraine escalation reports reversed after Iran-Oman revenue-sharing announcement.
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Oil extends losses on Hormuz talks hopes
CNBC · Thu, Aug 27, 2:49 AM ET
Brent fell 60 cents to $87.24 a barrel for a fourth day; WTI dropped 56 cents to $81.67. Iran and Oman advanced details on a Hormuz control agreement after IRGC revenue-sharing claims, with Qatar's PM heading to Iran. U.S. distillate stocks hit a seasonal low at 103.4 million barrels after a 2.2 million barrel draw.
Read →
U.S. crude stocks rise modestly to 428.9M bbl
Commercial crude stocks rose 95,000 barrels to 428.9 million barrels in the week to Aug. 21, below the expected 500,000 barrel build. Gasoline inventories fell 2.5 million barrels and distillates dropped 2.2 million barrels to a record seasonal low of 103.4 million barrels. SPR stocks fell another 3.7 million barrels on releases.
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Aramco reroutes Saudi crude to China via tanker handoff
Saudi Arabia is using ship-to-ship transfers to bypass Strait of Hormuz constraints for Asian deliveries. The workaround sustains flows to China amid limited strait traffic. It highlights efforts by Gulf producers to maintain exports despite ongoing disruptions.
Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Hot weather forecasts and lower Appalachian output lift US natural gas futures to one-month highs near $2.88.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.872 |
+1.1%
+0.030 |
-21.1% |
-1.2% |
-33.4% |
Hot weather supports US natural gas futures higher.
US natural gas futures gained on persistent hot weather into early September that sustains power-sector demand. LNG feedgas flows picked up, adding support. The September contract settled up 2.6% at $2.842/MMBtu, its highest level in a month.
Read →
US LNG exports flat in July at 10.48 million MT.
Preliminary data show US LNG exports slipped to 10.48 million metric tons in July from 10.6 million tons in June due to maintenance and seasonal factors. Europe took nearly half the volumes at 4.76 million tons, up from prior month. Asia absorbed 3.32 million tons.
Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF falls sharply to €64/MWh on profit-taking and mild weather amid still-low EU storage at 63.5%.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh |
64.36 |
-1.9%
-1.27 |
+135.0% |
+109.7% |
+38.4% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu |
21.97 |
-1.9%
-0.43 |
+135.0% |
+109.7% |
+38.4% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu |
22.94 |
-1.6%
-0.38 |
+138.9% |
+104.8% |
+29.6% |
TTF drops 6.5% to €63.97/MWh on Aug 25 amid mild weather.
Dutch TTF settled at €63.97/MWh on Aug 25, down €4.47 or 6.53% day-over-day. The move followed a sharp prior rally as mild weather reduced near-term demand pressure while EU storage sat at 63.5%, 18.5 points below the seasonal norm. Low inventories keep the market sensitive to any LNG or weather shifts.
Read →
Low EU storage at 63% raises winter price risk above €100/MWh.
EU gas storage stands at about 63%, the lowest level for this time of year in records and 18 points below the five-year average. Hormuz disruptions have curtailed Qatari LNG flows during the refill season while hot summer weather boosted power demand and slowed injections. Analysts see potential for TTF above €100/MWh this winter if cold weather arrives.
Read →
NW Europe LNG hits highest since 2023 on supply fears.
Spot LNG delivered into northwest Europe rose to $22.83/MMBtu early in the week, the highest since January 2023 per Argus data, before easing slightly to $22.23. Strait of Hormuz disruptions have slashed Qatari exports, tightening global supply during Europe's storage refill. The surge reflects competition for flexible cargoes between Europe and Asia.
Read →
TTF could climb sharply without Hormuz LNG normalization.
Goldman Sachs notes European prices must rise further to draw enough LNG cargoes into winter given weak storage levels. Persistent Hormuz disruptions limit Qatari volumes, forcing greater reliance on US and other spot LNG. The analysis highlights storage deficits as the dominant driver over near-term weather.
Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM data-center demand drives 6.8 GW capacity shortfall in latest auction, spurring backstop procurement plans.
PJM auction shortfall hits 6.8 GW amid data center surge.
PJM's July Base Residual Auction procured 138,318 MW but fell 6,831 MW short of the reliability requirement for the 2028/29 delivery year. The grid operator proposed a Reliability Backstop Procurement to secure additional resources up to a $555 per MW-day cap starting Sept. 30. The shortfall stems from surging large-load demand, primarily data centers, highlighting ongoing supply constraints in the largest US grid.
Read →
EIA reports June wholesale prices near yearly lows.
Wholesale electricity prices in June 2026 stayed near the lower end of yearly ranges across most US RTO hubs including PJM, MISO, and ERCOT. PJM showed the widest monthly price range from $36/MWh to $216/MWh. Peak demand in several markets approached or hit 12-month highs, driven by summer loads.
Read →
ERCOT real-time prices hold in $30 to 80/MWh range overnight.
ERCOT · Thu, Aug 27, 2026
ERCOT real-time settlement point prices on Aug 27 ranged mostly between $35/MWh and $80/MWh in early hours with no major spikes reported. The grid managed non-spin deployments earlier but recalled resources by midnight. Demand remained elevated but stable without emergency alerts.
Read →
Coal
What's moving · India's 45 power plants hit critically low coal stocks amid monsoon disruptions and rising demand.
45 Indian plants face critically low coal stocks
As of August 25, 45 Indian power plants (40 domestic coal-fired) held coal stocks below 25% of required levels or enough for under three days' generation, up from 31 at end-July. Heavy monsoon rains disrupted mining and rail transport in states like Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, cutting plant stocks 19% month-on-month to 30.95 million tonnes (10 days' cover per BigMint). Weakest monsoon since 2009 plus El Niño-linked heat lifted air-conditioning demand, tightening thermal coal supply and supporting seaborne prices.
Read →
Imported coking coal flows into Shanxi to ease supply crunch
Sxcoal · Wed, Aug 26, 5:28 PM ET
New direct rail links from Jingtang and Caofeidian ports cut logistics costs and deliver imported coking coal into Shanxi to offset domestic shortages. Safety inspections after the May mine accident and ongoing month-end shutdowns have kept local washed coking coal output down 6.78% year-on-year in H1. Shanxi low-sulfur coking coal spot price rose 49 yuan/t on August 26 to 2,461 yuan/t ex-washplant, supporting metallurgical coal benchmarks.
Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Corn futures surge to three-year highs above $5/bushel on Pro Farmer's low 173.2 bu/acre yield estimate and China soybean buys.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
534 |
-0.4%
-2 |
+21.4% |
+38.6% |
-4.3% |
| Wheat |
752 |
+0.5%
+4 |
+48.3% |
+47.3% |
+4.6% |
| Soybeans |
1,260 |
-0.5%
-6 |
+22.2% |
+22.5% |
-7.3% |
| Sugar |
18.71 |
+0.8%
+0.15 |
+24.7% |
+13.5% |
-6.6% |
| Coffee |
310.4 |
-3.7%
-11.8 |
-11.0% |
-20.0% |
+63.8% |
| Cocoa |
5,869 |
+0.7%
+38 |
-3.2% |
-24.2% |
+125.6% |
| Cotton |
89.12 |
+0.9%
+0.78 |
+38.7% |
+34.9% |
-7.4% |
Corn hits 3-year highs on low yields, China buys soybeans.
Michelle Rook ·
AgWeb · Wed, Aug 26, 2026
Corn futures reached three-year highs with September above $5 and December at $5.3650 per bushel on Pro Farmer Crop Tour's 173.2 bu/acre national yield estimate, 7.5 bu below USDA's 180.7 figure. Soybeans gained on a USDA-reported private export sale of 333,000 metric tons to China for 2026/27. Wheat also rallied on Black Sea supply risks from Russia-Ukraine tensions.
Read →
U.S. corn hits three-year high above $5 on yield cuts.
Corn led a broad grains rally with September futures up 13.5 cents to $5.14/bushel and December up 13 cents to $5.3650. The move follows Pro Farmer's downgrade of U.S. corn yields and crop condition ratings falling to 57% good-to-excellent. Traders position ahead of Thursday's USDA export sales report expecting strong corn and soybean commitments.
Read →
USDA confirms 333,000 MT soybean sale to China.
Private exporters reported sales of 333,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. This adds to prior unknown-destination sales of 132,000 metric tons, supporting soybean demand amid tight U.S. stocks and ahead of potential U.S.-China trade developments.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Zinc surges on LME tightness with cash-three month backwardation widening to $174/t amid regional supply squeezes.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,440 |
-0.8%
-109 |
+18.2% |
+49.0% |
+54.1% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) |
14,325 |
-0.2%
-33 |
+12.8% |
+48.9% |
+46.4% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) |
3,139 |
-0.1%
-4 |
+5.5% |
+24.4% |
+15.0% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) |
3,478 |
+0.8%
+28 |
+15.8% |
+26.8% |
+12.5% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) |
16,928 |
-0.5%
-85 |
+0.0% |
+14.8% |
-15.5% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) |
2,118 |
+0.0%
+1 |
-3.9% |
+3.6% |
-3.5% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) |
55,303 |
-1.2%
-697 |
+31.7% |
+70.5% |
+70.5% |
Zinc extends seven-day rally near four-year highs on LME supply tightness.
LME zinc futures rose as much as 1% extending a seven-day rally and holding near the highest levels in more than four years. Spot metal commands a widening premium over futures, mirroring copper tightness, as LME inventories stay low while Chinese stocks build. The backwardation signals near-term physical scarcity for the galvanizing metal.
Read →
US tariff threat pulls copper to LME highs near record as COMEX stocks surge.
Three-month LME copper hit $14,343/t, close to the $14,527.50 all-time high, after 65,400 tonnes of warrants cancelled for withdrawal. COMEX stocks rose for a 46th straight day to a record 675,185 tonnes as traders arbitrage ahead of possible 15 to 30% US refined copper tariffs from 2027. The flow turns a projected 639,000-tonne 2026 global surplus into a de-facto balanced or tighter market outside the US.
Read →
Zinc nears four-year high on LME stock draw and China export flows.
LME three-month zinc touched $3,949.50/t, the highest since June 2022, before easing on stronger US inflation data. Cash premium over three-month widened to $132/t, the highest since December, as LME stocks fall while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks more than double this year. Chinese refined zinc exports are arriving at LME warehouses, easing but not ending the London squeeze.
Read →
Comex copper hits fresh record then pulls back as LME squeeze eases slightly.
Comex September copper touched $6.7775/lb ($14,940/t), a new all-time high, before retreating 1.6%. LME cash-three month spread narrowed to $127/t from a five-year peak above $400/t earlier in the week after inflows, though nearer-dated tightness persists with September-October at a $100/t premium. Shanghai deliverable stocks fell for a sixth straight day while COMEX inventories keep building on tariff positioning.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP sacks Pilbara iron ore workers at Mining Area C amid driverless truck rollout as China port stocks dip and steel exports stabilize.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
94.4 |
-0.5%
-0.5 |
-6.3% |
-2.1% |
-33.9% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
401 |
+0.3%
+1 |
+1.7% |
+1.5% |
-46.8% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
433 |
+0.3%
+1 |
+5.1% |
+3.4% |
-46.4% |
BHP cuts jobs at Pilbara mine for autonomous trucks
BHP plans workforce reductions at its large Pilbara Mining Area C iron ore operation as it deploys more driverless haul trucks. The cuts target part of a 1,600-strong workforce amid broader tech-driven efficiency pushes. This signals cost discipline at a major producer even as seaborne supply remains ample.
Read →
Samarco plans $2.7B ramp to full capacity by 2028
Samarco, the Vale-BHP JV, will invest R$13.8 billion ($2.7 billion) to restore full 26 to 27 Mtpa capacity from current 60% levels starting 2028. The plan targets regaining second-largest pellet exporter status with added tailings-derived fines output. Added supply from this restart adds to seaborne iron ore availability pressuring prices.
Read →
China HRC export prices hold steady at $490 to 493/t
Export HRC offers from Chinese mills stabilized with deals clustered at $490 to 493 per tonne FOB. Rebar export indications at Tianjin port held at $478 to 483/t amid port disruptions from recent typhoons. Steady export flows provide a floor for Chinese steelmakers despite soft domestic property demand.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · PCE inflation print above forecasts lifts rate-hike odds, pressuring gold and silver after August rally.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,598 |
-0.1%
-3 |
+7.5% |
+35.5% |
+156.0% |
| Silver |
68.37 |
+0.5%
+0.34 |
-1.4% |
+76.5% |
+187.5% |
| Platinum |
1,838 |
-0.3%
-6 |
-9.6% |
+35.5% |
+82.8% |
| Palladium |
1,316 |
-0.8%
-10 |
-18.2% |
+20.6% |
-44.6% |
Gold retreats from 3-month high after hot PCE data
Comex gold futures fell 1% to $4,649/oz after July headline PCE rose 3.7% YoY, a tenth above forecasts, while core held at 3.3%. The print firmed the dollar and yields, ending gold's five-day winning streak though it remains up 14% for August on Treasury buyback support. Traders now eye Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech for rate clues.
Read →
Gold consolidates above $4,600 ahead of Jackson Hole
Spot gold held above $4,600/oz after recovering some losses from the PCE-driven selloff. The metal snapped a five-day rally as inflation stayed above the Fed target, boosting September rate-hike odds. ETF inflows exceeded 28 tonnes last week amid debasement-trade buying tied to US debt concerns.
Read →
PBoC adds 20t gold in July, 21st straight month
The People's Bank of China purchased 20 tonnes of gold in July, the largest monthly addition since October 2023, extending its buying streak to 21 months and lifting reserves to 2,366 tonnes. Chinese gold ETFs saw inflows of 5 tonnes, reversing prior outflows. The central bank cited strategic reserve diversification amid geopolitical fragmentation.
Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Lynas FY26 profit surges on record prices as non-China rare earth supply chains advance amid China export-control uncertainty.
USA Rare Earth secures $1.55B US gov-backed funding for Serra Verde deal
USA Rare Earth completed upsized $1.55 billion capitalization of an SPV backed by the US Department of War, including $750 million equity investment, $500 million bank debt commitment, and a forward purchase contract for at least $300 million in rare earth products over five years. The funding meets a key condition for its Serra Verde acquisition, positioning the company to own the only mine outside Asia producing all four magnetic rare earths (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) upon closing after the Aug 28 shareholder meeting.
Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · BDI jumps 4.4% to 3,056 on capesize surge and Typhoon Narra supply squeeze.
BDI surges 4.4% to 3,056, highest since Aug 10.
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index rose 4.4% to 3,056 on Wednesday, its fifth straight gain and highest since August 10. Capesize rates jumped 6.3% to 5,033 with daily earnings up $2,706 to $42,148. Iron ore futures rose as Typhoon Narra disrupted South China Sea routes, tightening supply and lifting freight.
Read →
Tanker struck by projectile in Hormuz, fire extinguished.
UKMTO reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile northwest of the Musandam Peninsula around 1730 UTC on August 25. The crew extinguished the resulting fire with no injuries or pollution reported; the incident remains under investigation. It follows a Monday strike on another tanker in the area amid ongoing Hormuz tensions.
Read →
New Hormuz tanker strike reported amid low traffic.
UKMTO confirmed another tanker strike by projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Commodity vessel transits stayed low at five on Tuesday versus a 10-day average of 15, per Kpler data, as Iran-Oman talks continue on a temporary corridor.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs retreat after week’s gains as buying interest dries up amid reform talks.
Q3 California-Quebec auction clears mid-$32 range.
The Q3 joint California-Quebec carbon auction sold out in the mid-$32 range, slightly below secondary market levels ahead of the sale. Results aligned with participant expectations following the August 19 auction. The clearing price provides a benchmark for Western North American compliance carbon values.
Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid Policy Center and trade[XYZ] file CFTC comment urging regulated path for 24/7 WTI, Brent and Henry Hub natural gas perpetuals after $500B+ volume.
Hyperliquid, trade[XYZ] urge CFTC path for energy perpetuals
Hyperliquid Policy Center and trade[XYZ] submitted a joint Aug. 26 comment letter to the CFTC requesting a regulatory framework for perpetual contracts on WTI crude, Brent crude and Henry Hub natural gas. The filing cites over $500 billion in cumulative volume on their Hyperliquid HIP-3 markets since October 2025 and argues 24/7 on-chain trading captured much of the price discovery during recent Middle East supply shocks when traditional futures were closed. The groups seek technology-neutral rules allowing stablecoin margin and on-chain infrastructure under existing authority.
Read →
Dallas Fed: tokenized deposits may cut bank lending capacity $700B
Francisco Rodrigues ·
CoinDesk · Wed, Aug 27
Dallas Fed economists Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy estimated that if tokenized deposits raise depositor rate sensitivity by 10%, U.S. banks' capacity to hold long-term interest-rate risk could fall by roughly $700 billion in 10-year equivalents. A separate scenario with 10% shorter deposit duration projected a $580 billion reduction. The analysis highlights risks from instant settlement and programmable AI-driven transfers amid banks building tokenized-deposit networks.
Read →
POSCO tokenizes trade receivables on Avalanche
Krisztian Sandor ·
CoinDesk · Tue, Aug 25
POSCO International America completed a live pilot tokenizing real trade receivables on an Avalanche-based Layer-1 network run by Intain, with Olea purchasing the assets using actual capital. AI verified invoices, purchase orders and shipping documents before on-chain registration. The deal follows POSCO's July Injective pilot and expands tokenized trade-finance experiments by the $22 billion South Korean trading firm.
Read →
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Gunvor eyes $1.2 to 1.5B Haynesville gas assets deal; Enbridge buys Permian crude gathering for $600M.
Gunvor in talks for $1.2 to 1.5B Haynesville gas assets
Gunvor is in early talks to acquire natural gas-producing assets in Texas and Louisiana's Haynesville shale from Silver Hill Energy Partners for $1.2 to 1.5 billion. Western Natural would operate the assets if completed, marking Gunvor's push to build integrated US shale gas production and marketing amid expected demand growth from data centers and LNG exports.
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Enbridge buys Permian crude gathering for $600M
Enbridge agreed to acquire Salt Creek Midstream's crude oil gathering business in the Delaware Basin for $600 million cash. The deal adds 500 miles of infrastructure with 420,000 bpd throughput and 350,000 barrels storage, linking Permian output directly to Enbridge's Ingleside export terminal and expected to be immediately accretive to earnings.
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Suncor names Zebedee next CEO, Kruger to vice chair
Suncor announced Peter Zebedee, current EVP upstream, will become president and CEO in April 2027 as Rich Kruger transitions to executive vice chair. Zebedee will also serve as CFO from mid-September, following the departure of prior CFO Troy Little, as part of planned leadership succession.
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Williams buys Momentum Midstream for up to $5.5B
Williams agreed to acquire Momentum Midstream from EnCap Flatrock for up to $5.5 billion ($3.5B cash/debt plus $2B equity). The deal expands Williams' Haynesville gathering and processing network to serve Gulf Coast LNG and power demand with long-term contracts.
Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US-Canada tariff war escalates as Ottawa imposes $20B retaliatory duties effective Sept 8.
Canada unveils $20B counter-tariffs on US goods Sept 8.
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne released a 99-page list of US imports facing 15 to 50% duties from September 8, including steel, dairy and agricultural equipment. The response follows US 50% tariffs on Canadian products that took effect after negotiations failed. Analysts called it a proportionate but uncertainty-creating move.
Read →
India lifts four-year wheat export ban with immediate effect.
Pratik Parija ·
Bloomberg · Mon, Aug 24, 6:04 AM ET
India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade revised wheat and durum wheat export policy from prohibited to free, also covering flour products like atta, maida and semolina. The change follows record 120.6 million tonne production and aims to support farmers amid low domestic prices. It could ease global wheat supplies strained by Black Sea disruptions.
Read →
Bessent launches Operation Economic Outcast vs Iran.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Operation Economic Outcast, sanctioning over 60 entities, individuals and vessels tied to Iranian oil revenue, nuclear technology and cyber operations. New sectoral sanctions target digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping to tighten secondary sanctions risk. The campaign aims to sever Iran's global financial lifelines.
Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Meghalaya Assembly blocks uranium mining in key reserves
The Meghalaya Legislative Assembly passed a unanimous resolution opposing all uranium mining and ore processing facilities in the state, citing health, environmental risks, and lack of community consent. The state holds an estimated 9.22 million tonnes of deposits, India's third-largest reserves. Traders and nuclear sector watchers on X note this as a major setback for India's uranium supply plans and potential support for global uranium prices amid supply constraints.
Read →
Buy gold silver dips as oil breakout looms for importers
Macro traders highlight that higher crude oil prices will ripple through the energy complex, raising fuel, fertilizer, and food costs in energy-import-dependent countries like India. This leads to currency pressure, subsidies, and imported inflation, making physical gold and silver a hedge bought on dips. Discussions emphasize owning precious metals before potential capital controls or liquidity issues hit.
Read →
Oil chart points to doubling or tripling prices ahead
Technical analysts share charts indicating oil is setting up for a significant rally, potentially more than doubling in 1 to 3 years or tripling in 5 years. Traders discuss divergence between bearish price action and physical supply realities, with long-term bulls maintaining energy equity positions despite near-term volatility.
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Wheat surges after Kremlin peace talks stall
US wheat prices rallied after reports from Kremlin sources indicated peace talks are stuck, alongside broader weather and supply concerns. Elliott Wave and ag traders project further upside targets as agricultural commodities show early signs of parabolic moves linked to energy cost pass-through.
Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Currie: surplus today tells nothing about tomorrow
Jeff Currie argues the recent crude weakness from released Hormuz-trapped supply is short-lived rather than a fundamental rebalance. Product shortages and high crack spreads persist, positioning the market for quick shifts from surplus to tightness and volatility ahead.
Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc., the company behind BoxWood. BoxWood is commodity hedge management software for oil and gas producers, fuel consumers, refiners, and trade houses: AI-checked trade confirmations, one-click daily mark-to-market, counterparty reconciliation, settlements, scenario analysis, and automated daily reports for natural gas, NGL, crude, refined-product, and basis hedges.
How BoxWood compares with AEGIS and CTRM software →