Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Aug 15, 2026
▶ The 2-minute market brief · 1.25x
Downey's Take on the Past Week
Dutch TTF up $5.88 (+10.6%) on Middle East shipping disruptions and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty curtailing LNG flows.
Corn up $44 (+10.1%) on USDA cutting 2026 yield estimate below expectations amid Midwest heat and dryness while raising export forecasts.
Wheat up $50 (+7.8%) on Black Sea tensions including attacks on Russian export ports and Russia rejecting ceasefire proposals.
Coffee down $23.5 (-7.0%) on improved Brazil harvest progress and supply outlook easing quality concerns.
Crude up $4.22 (+5.7%) on Iran attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz sustaining supply concerns.
Palladium down $49 (-3.5%) on concerns over long-term demand erosion from rising electric vehicle adoption.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs global gas glut trade recommends shorting European natural gas (TTF) 27Q3 as the largest LNG supply wave ever likely hits.
Corn up $44 (+10.1%) on USDA cutting 2026 yield estimate below expectations amid Midwest heat and dryness while raising export forecasts.
Wheat up $50 (+7.8%) on Black Sea tensions including attacks on Russian export ports and Russia rejecting ceasefire proposals.
Coffee down $23.5 (-7.0%) on improved Brazil harvest progress and supply outlook easing quality concerns.
Crude up $4.22 (+5.7%) on Iran attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz sustaining supply concerns.
Palladium down $49 (-3.5%) on concerns over long-term demand erosion from rising electric vehicle adoption.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs global gas glut trade recommends shorting European natural gas (TTF) 27Q3 as the largest LNG supply wave ever likely hits.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Oil: Brent near $88-90, Hormuz traffic near zero after UAE vessel attacks and US-Iran demands.
The angle · Contango steepens as physical barrels tighten while paper longs add on stalled reopening; shorts face delivery squeeze risk.
Copper: LME stocks at 205kt after 42-day draw, cash-September spread hits $370-434/tonne.
The angle · Backwardation locks in physical premium; shorts must roll or bid aggressively against low visible inventory.
Wheat: Chicago/KC futures jump 20-30 cents on Ukraine strikes hitting Russian Novorossiysk terminals.
The angle · Black Sea export dislocations widen arb to US Gulf; longs in futures gain from delayed Russian loadings.
Natural gas: Henry Hub hovers $2.7-2.8 amid +36 bcf storage build and LNG feedgas at one-month high.
The angle · Inventory overhang caps upside despite heat/LNG pull; curve stays in mild contango favoring storage plays.
Rare earths: MP Materials/USA Rare Earth shares surge on US funding deals and supply-chain push.
The angle · Policy-driven offtake visibility lifts equities vs physical prices; long positioning shifts to non-Chinese names.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These charts show live oil and natural gas pricing from Hyperliquid's 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
WTI Crude · live weekend pricing
$81.96 ▼ -0.44 -0.54%
vs Friday, August 14, 2026 NYMEX WTI Crude close $82.40
Nat Gas · live weekend pricing
$2.74 ▲ +0.00 +0.11%
vs Friday, August 14, 2026 NYMEX Nat Gas close $2.73
The week's moves
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, August 14, 2026
| Market | Last | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF | 61.42 | +10.6% +5.88 |
+118.1% |
| Corn | 483 | +10.1% +44 |
+9.8% |
| Brent | 88.52 | +5.9% +4.97 |
+45.5% |
| WTI Crude | 82.40 | +5.4% +4.22 |
+43.5% |
| Soybeans | 1,193 | +3.1% +36 |
+15.7% |
| Silver | 65.11 | +2.8% +1.78 |
-7.2% |
| Nat Gas | 2.733 | +2.7% +0.071 |
-25.9% |
| Gold | 4,380 | +2.2% +97 |
+2.6% |
| Copper | 6.61 | +0.6% +0.04 |
+17.5% |
| Cocoa | 5,786 | +0.1% +4 |
-4.6% |
Research
Oil Market Report, August 2026
IEA · Mon, Aug 11, 2026
The IEA downgrades its 2026 global oil demand forecast to a 1.6 mb/d decline, citing ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure and elevated fuel prices weighing on consumption. Global oil supply is now projected to fall 4.3 mb/d in 2026 amid renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions, with inventories plunging sharply in July and a larger deficit expected in 3Q26. Refinery throughputs and product markets face significant constraints, pushing cracks and margins to record highs in the Atlantic Basin. Read →
Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026
EIA · Mon, Aug 11, 2026
EIA raises Middle East shut-in estimates due to persistent Strait of Hormuz constraints, forecasting Brent at $85/bbl in 3Q26 before easing toward $69/bbl in 2027 as supplies recover. U.S. crude inventories are expected to stay below five-year lows through 2026 amid strong exports and refinery runs, while natural gas prices are lowered on reduced LNG feedgas demand and high storage. Electricity demand growth is tempered in Texas, with renewables and natural gas driving generation increases. Read →
Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2026
OPEC · Wed, Aug 12, 2026
OPEC's MOMR provides the latest assessment of global oil market balances, supply, demand, and prices amid geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. The report includes a feature article on recent global refining trends and the winter oil market outlook, highlighting key developments for the balance of 2026 and into 2027. Read →
Global oil supply short-term update, August 2026
Wood Mackenzie · Tue, Aug 5, 2026
WoodMac downgrades its 2026 global oil supply outlook as Middle East tensions persist, incorporating impacts from renewed hostilities and export disruptions. The update reflects lower expected production recovery in the Gulf region through the remainder of the year. Read →
Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026
J.P. Morgan · Mon, Mar 3, 2026
J.P. Morgan's annual Eye on the Market energy paper examines the fiercest debates in the energy transition, including data center power demand, pricing pressures, and the primary energy fallacy. It provides a reality check on timelines for shifting from fossil fuels, emphasizing volatility mitigation through diversified energy mixes. Read →
Oil prices forecast: What’s next for oil in 2026 and beyond?
J.P. Morgan · Thu, Jul 16, 2026
J.P. Morgan updates its oil price outlook amid geopolitics and supply chain issues, forecasting Brent averages of $86/bbl in 3Q26, $80 in 4Q26, and $78 by year-end, with a reversion toward lower prices in 2027 as Persian Gulf supply recovers. The analysis highlights a shift from deficit to surplus conditions later in the year. Read →
Commodity Views 2026 Outlook: Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves
Goldman Sachs · Mon, Dec 22, 2025
Goldman Sachs' cyclical macro base case supports commodity returns through the US-China AI and geopolitical power race plus global energy supply waves. Key convictions focus on power demand surges and supply dynamics across oil, LNG, and other commodities for 2026. Read →
Commodities Market Outlook: 4Q '25
Citi · Wed, Oct 1, 2025
Citi Research sees the bull market for gold and silver broadening into copper and aluminum in 2026, with outlooks across more than 25 commodity markets and an in-depth global macro backdrop analysis. Read →
Podcasts
Javier Blas on Lessons from Closing Hormuz (So Far)
Columbia Energy Exchange · Mon, Aug 4, 2026
Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas discusses the impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closures over the past five months, which have disrupted 10-15 million barrels per day of oil supply. Key takeaways include lessons on market resilience, supply chain adaptations, and geopolitical risks in energy markets amid ongoing Middle East tensions. Listen →
The Tungsten Market Is Warning of an Upcoming War
Bloomberg Odd Lots · Sun, Aug 3, 2026
Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling explores tungsten as a strategic metal whose mining history signals war preparations due to its use in armaments. The episode highlights geopolitical tensions, China's dominance in production, and renewed investor interest in non-Chinese tungsten mines like Australia's Dolphin Mine. Listen →
MacroVoices #544 Viktor Shvets: How Markets Survive Disruption
Macro Voices · Wed, Aug 6, 2026
Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna interview strategist Viktor Shvets on market resilience amid Hormuz disruptions, inflation signals, precious metals performance, and the k-shaped economy. Discussions cover oil market dynamics, geopolitical fallout, and investment opportunities in volatile commodity environments. Listen →
Global oil latest update August 2026
Sankey Research · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
Paul Sankey provides his latest stream-of-consciousness update on global oil markets, covering supply risks, refining tightness, Iran-related developments, and energy stock attractiveness. Key takeaway: despite pressures, energy equities remain compelling amid crude volatility. Listen →
Top oil analyst Paul Sankey on crude prices, energy earnings and Iran
CNBC Squawk on the Street · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Paul Sankey analyzes current crude price movements, energy sector earnings impacts, and the latest Iran geopolitical developments. The segment emphasizes fundamentals in oil markets and implications for traders and investors. Listen →
Ask an AI
Split 2-1 negative on oil; copper flipped bearish this week.
We asked three frontier models the same questions. Unedited verdicts · AI opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Dots show each model's weekly call over time · ● Up ● Down · the last dot is this week.
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI
▼ Down Oversupply from OPEC+ unwind and US shale hits amid rebuilding inventories.
Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week) · ●●●
Gemini · Google
▲ Up OPEC+ maintains tight supply amidst geopolitical risks and robust summer demand expectations. Inventories remain constrained globally.
Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week) · ●●●
Claude · Anthropic
▼ Down Demand fears from slowing China growth plus OPEC+ supply creep outweigh geopolitical risk premium.
Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week) · ●●●
And the next 20% move?
| Market | Grok | Gemini | Claude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | ▼ Down ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● |
| US Nat Gas | ▼ Down ●●● | ▼ Down ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● |
| Gold | ▲ Up ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● | ▲ Up ●●● |
Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week)
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated from public sources; every item links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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